All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[DieH@rd]

If you look at NPD end user sales though, PS4 is no longer selling like hotcakes. The trend will push it below Wii and PS2 rates after a historic start soon enough.

Remember PS2 and the Wii came out at 299$ and 249$ respectively. PS4 and XBO are beating that at higher price (33% higher to be exact ).

And let us not forget... First year of PS2 [after NA launch] had truly phenomenal software lineup: Twisted Metal Black, GT3: A-Spec, Final Fantasy X, Silent Hill 2, Ico, Devil May Cry, Metal Gear Solid 2, Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 3, Jax and Daxter and Grand Theft Auto III. That was one of the best years of gaming of all time. All those games were exclusive to PS2, all [except Ico, who became cult hit later on] were welcomed in a highly positive light.

And in 2002... 95% of game releases that are listed on Wiki are PS2 exclusives, and 7 out of 10 most successful games of the year were on PS2.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_in_video_gaming


All this means... that we dont need to think that PS4 can sustain the monthly sales of cheap PS2 and cheap Wii [which had incredible causal gamer appeal] over the long period of time... PS4 will never reach such hardware and software sale dominance. We should compare it to PS3/X360 reports, and not to the successes of highly dominant consoles like PS2 and Wii.

 

[MrFox]

Nintendo looks like it's flatlining in the US. Hopefully it's still doing somewhat okay elsewhere.

I was supposed to wait for Super Smash Bros, but yesterday I bought a WiiU out of desperate support for them. Or nostalgia. I don't know why, in fact.

 

[Deleted member 7537]

Funnily enough, last month PS4 sales trajectory (between 7 and 8) is almost exactly the trajectory of PS2 sales at the same comparative time.

Basically what DSoup said.

@Jayco You can't compare those prices. You have to take into account the inflation. The launch PS2 had in fact a ~395$ price if you adjust it for inflation.

Yeah, that's true, but you also have to take into account that the average household income is lower than in 2001.

 

[Globalisateur]

Yeah, that's true, but you also have to take into account that the average household income is lower than in 2001.

Agreed. But remember also that PS2s were sold without memory cards so it should make prices similar.

 

[Entropy]

Nintendo looks like it's flatlining in the US. Hopefully it's still doing somewhat okay elsewhere.

Depends on what you mean by OK. By all accounts, it is not doing worse than a year ago, so the presence of the new competitors has not caused it to die off. In fact, sales may actually be increasing somewhat. There is certainly a decent amount of exclusive content coming out for the platform in the upcoming year.

The problem with the graph is that it only describes the first twelve months, and that extrapolating from those initial sales is really difficult. Some people think that once more content becomes available that is exclusive to the new consoles, their sales will increase. Others think that while this may be the case, it was also true the last generation, and factors that helped drive the sales of the previous generation consoles a couple of years into their life are largely gone now, meaning that rather than peaking in their third or fourth year, this generation won't be able to sustain interest beyond a relatively small game focussed core audience.
We just don't know yet. We may be able to make decent guesses a year from now, and even that would be fairly early, since the bulk of the previous generation sales was after the initial couple of years. The question mark was never about wether there was pent up demand for something new, but rather how large the sustained interest will be.

 

[SlimJim]

I can't understand how nobody is discussing Sony having out shipped MS more than 3 to 1 for the first quarter...

 

[London Geezer]

I can't understand how nobody is discussing Sony having out shipped MS more than 3 to 1 for the first quarter...

What's there to discuss, really?

 

[Rangers]

Interesting note from GAF. I guess Sony really wont tell Ps3 v PS4

From earnings call Q&A transcript:

Q: In Game, can you tell us the rough split or the precise split between PS3 and PS4 shipments so that we can understand how the new platform is performing?

A: We can't provide the breakdown of our PS3 and PS4, sorry.

As I posted before, Sometimes I'd wonder if Sony/MS didn't give the console breakdown just because nobody bothered to ask. Now I know at least for Sony, that's not the case. Somebody did ask, and they wouldn't/couldn't give it out. Well, I guess they do want to limit our information...

 

[eastmen]

I can't understand how nobody is discussing Sony having out shipped MS more than 3 to 1 for the first quarter...

we already knew xbox numbers would be bad , remember may npd ? It will be interesting to see if it can narrow the gap in the fall when it launches in more countries and catches up globaly with the ps4's avaliblity . Plus all of MS's cards will be on the table if it can't shrink the gap then I think it will be a second place console its whole life unless they can drop the price much faster than sony in the future

 

[Rangers]

Final Amazon July standings:

PS4 #11
Xbox One #48

Last month XOne had Titanfall sku too, both were around 48-50.

 

[SlimJim]

we already knew xbox numbers would be bad , remember may npd ? It will be interesting to see if it can narrow the gap in the fall when it launches in more countries and catches up globaly with the ps4's avaliblity . Plus all of MS's cards will be on the table if it can't shrink the gap then I think it will be a second place console its whole life unless they can drop the price much faster than sony in the future

I thought they were 1.5-2 to 1 -bad, not >3 to 1 -bad. So even badder than me, a huge Xbox One doubter, could have imagined.

I think Xbox One fans on the other hand could not have predicted these numbers either; most of them are still thinking Xbox One is doing better than the 360 in a similar timeframe...

 

[eastmen]

I thought they were 1.5-2 to 1 -bad, not >3 to 1 -bad. So even badder than me, a huge Xbox One doubter, could have imagined.

I think Xbox One fans on the other hand could not have predicted these numbers either; most of them are still thinking Xbox One is doing better than the 360 in a similar timeframe...

I'm not sure why you'd think they were 1.5 or so. That was what they were in the NPD . Sony launched in more countries than MS and were outselling MS where they both were launched.

For both companies summer is a dead zone of content. I don't expect MS to change much in terms of sales but heading into the fall halo / sunset and other games might help MS sell better along with the previous price cut

 

[DrJay24]

Since some software has dropped from the top ten, the PS4 is back to #5 on Amazon (maybe TLoU is helping). XB1 sits at #40 ($399) and #165 ($499). I'm surprised the Kinect and Kinectless SKUs seem to have such large disparity in sales.

 

[Rangers]

I thought they were 1.5-2 to 1 -bad, not >3 to 1 -bad. So even badder than me, a huge Xbox One doubter, could have imagined.

They're probably not 3:1 bad. Sony seemed to ship more PS's than they needed to this quarter. Shipments dont directly correlate with sales. There's often a substantial disconnect or lead time.

Hard to guess whether Sony is still catching up to a flush stock situation, or what.

It should be comfortably 2+:1 probably though. Mostly driven by PS4>XBO. PS3 and 360 sales should remain fairly comparable as they have historically, as well as being a small and diminishing part of the picture anyway.

Again, here's some USA and Japan sales for April through June:

PS4 USA: 665k
PS4 Japan: 127k
PS3 USA: 114k
360 USA: 190k
XBO USA: 389k
PS3 Japan (estimate): ~130k
360 Japan: Essentially 0
Xbox One Japan: 0


360+One USA+Japan: 579k

PS3+PS4 USA+Japan: 1036k

I could figure out PS3 Japan too, and may later, but it would require going back and adding up all the media create weeks. A decent, probably generous, estimate might be 10k/week PS3 in Japan for 13 weeks=130k.

ANYWAYS the point is add that all the PS3+PS4 in USA and Japan using the Japan PS3 estimate, and you get 1.036 million sold in the USA and Japan. So that leaves you close to 2.5 million less than shipped...I mean you have to have some pretty unlikely EU sales,- 2.5 times the USA and Japan combined- to get there. Even if you allow for markets like Australia and Canada, you only make it slightly less daunting.

But shipments vary and eventually even out with sales. Sony was probably still catching up stock is my guess.

 

[Arwin]

The EU was certainly understocked for a long time - at least some countries like mine are still understocked.

Don't underestimate the demand for Sony in the EU. Pretty much all of last gen, the PS3 sold twice here what it sold in the US. And the starting price for the PS3 was 599 here, and it's 399 now, so it's certainly not impossible that sales here are higher than expected as a result of that.

But it's probably a combination of all three:

- higher sales in the EU than US (as has been the case for Playstation for a long time now)
- higher initial sales in the EU because of the much lower launch-price compared to last gen
- catching up on stock in the EU in particular (the US and other Xbox launch-countries were prioritised initially I believe)

 

[Globalisateur]

With the probable success of the Destiny PS4 bundle in US (and CA) I am very surprised that Sony didn't release the TLOU RE bundle in US.

Maybe they didn't want to cannibalize sales of the PS3 TLOU bundle (still selling honorably at Amazon.com) or even the Destiny PS4 bundle?

And about the high shipping numbers, in my local area PS4s are indeed low in stock, constantly.

The 3:1 Q1 shipping ratio could also be explained by the combination that the PS4s were undestocked and the XB1s were maybe previously overstocked so their Q1 shipping numbers could be lower that the real sales.

 

[djskribbles]

They're probably not 3:1 bad. Sony seemed to ship more PS's than they needed to this quarter. Shipments dont directly correlate with sales. There's often a substantial disconnect or lead time.

Hard to guess whether Sony is still catching up to a flush stock situation, or what.

It should be comfortably 2+:1 probably though. Mostly driven by PS4>XBO. PS3 and 360 sales should remain fairly comparable as they have historically, as well as being a small and diminishing part of the picture anyway.

Again, here's some USA and Japan sales for April through June:

PS4 USA: 665k
PS4 Japan: 127k
PS3 USA: 114k
360 USA: 190k
XBO USA: 389k
PS3 Japan (estimate): ~130k
360 Japan: Essentially 0
Xbox One Japan: 0


360+One USA+Japan: 579k

PS3+PS4 USA+Japan: 1036k

I could figure out PS3 Japan too, and may later, but it would require going back and adding up all the media create weeks. A decent, probably generous, estimate might be 10k/week PS3 in Japan for 13 weeks=130k.

ANYWAYS the point is add that all the PS3+PS4 in USA and Japan using the Japan PS3 estimate, and you get 1.036 million sold in the USA and Japan. So that leaves you close to 2.5 million less than shipped...I mean you have to have some pretty unlikely EU sales,- 2.5 times the USA and Japan combined- to get there. Even if you allow for markets like Australia and Canada, you only make it slightly less daunting.

But shipments vary and eventually even out with sales. Sony was probably still catching up stock is my guess.

If sales are 1.5:1 in the US, my bet is that sales have been AT LEAST 2.5:1 worldwide, considering the XB1 is dead everywhere but the UK/US.

If we assume the PS3 and X360 shipped similar numbers last quarter (let's say ~500k each), XB1 would be at 600k shipped and PS4 would be at 3M shipped. I agree that shipped numbers don't directly correlate to sales, but do you really think it's only ~2:1 worldwide, considering the shipped numbers are probably closer to 5:1?

Sony may have shipped more than MS in anticipation for Destiny and TLoU:R. And MS shipped less because they heavily over-shipped last quarter. But still, 5:1 makes me think that sales have been 3:1 or greater worldwide in 2014.

And I don't think Sony's shipped numbers are as bloated as you may think. Many countries in Europe have been PS4 starved until recently, so it wouldn't surprise me if sales in the rest of the world were 1.5x or more than the US+Japan last quarter.

 

[DieH@rd]

The 3:1 Q1 shipping ratio could also be explained by the combination that the PS4s were undestocked and the XB1s were maybe previously overstocked so their Q1 shipping numbers could be lower that the real sales.

MS pointed in their Q1 2014 quarter report that they already had overstocking, and that they will reduce shipments in Q2 2014 because of that.

Still, I expected larger shipment from MS. They had to launch brand new "savior" $399 SKU, but they still reported small Xbone+X360 number.

 

[zed]

ANYWAYS the point is add that all the PS3+PS4 in USA and Japan using the Japan PS3 estimate, and you get 1.036 million sold in the USA and Japan. So that leaves you close to 2.5 million less than shipped...I mean you have to have some pretty unlikely EU sales,- 2.5 times the USA and Japan combined- to get there. Even if you allow for markets like Australia and Canada, you only make it slightly less daunting.

Its possible, last gen (until now)
~85million PS3s OK
36million = NPD & Japan OK
thus 42% = 58% elsewhere = ~1.6 million elsewhere

a couple of things to remember though,
the PS4 in japan started later (thus that 42% is perhaps lower)
the PS4 had very little in stock in a lot of PAL countries

thus don't be surprised if the next shipment numbers also show a >3:1 ratio

 

[djskribbles]

Its possible, last gen (until now)
~85million PS3s OK
36million = NPD & Japan OK
thus 42% = 58% elsewhere = ~1.6 million elsewhere

a couple of things to remember though,
the PS4 in japan started later (thus that 42% is perhaps lower)
the PS4 had very little in stock in a lot of PAL countries

thus don't be surprised if the next shipment numbers also show a >3:1 ratio

Yup, agreed.