All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[Sonic]

Based on this chart (which is seemingly PS4/XB1/WiiU) and these percentages: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=121535644#post121535644

And add the fact that the Wii U sold 140k, I get:
PS4: ~276k
XB1: ~191k
WiiU: 140k (confirmed by Nintendo)

If my maths is right, then good month all around if true.

edit: numbers seem to be between:
PS4: 269-276k
XB1: 191-197k
WiiU: 140k

A good month all around indeed.

Wii U has shown its got some life left in it. If Ninty can keep bringing out great quality games it may be able to sustain sales like this month's and carve out a bigger sliver of the pie.

XB1 doing around 190k is a lot better than the 155k that was based upon MS's PR. And not so bad with the gutting of Kinect. It clearly shows demand for a Kinectless XB1 and being $100 cheaper. Looking at the sales data of past Junes it seems like the June drought is a myth, especially during later years or if a hit title comes out. So 190k seems in line for June although lackluster for a price (and feature) cut. If they're able to retain sales like this for the rest of summer then at least demand is steady. But then looking at PS4 numbers and MS has reason to worry.

PS4 being around 270k is a strong month in sales and shows demand remains high for the platform. Sony's in a great position in the US having the leading console in sales for the past six months. 3rd party games are selling better on PS4 and in turn that's selling more systems by having the better versions. If sales and the slice of the pie remain at these levels for the rest of the summer then is it possible for Sony to get a million console lead in US before the holiday season? The market's gone towards Sony in a way it hasn't since PS2 days.

 

[djskribbles]

Both are higher than I expected for the slow time of year, was expecting 150k and 230k.

Those were my guesses as well. Was about 40k off for both. I guess some of the Watch Dogs effect could have carried over. Seems to be the case with Mario Kart as well. And perhaps a bit of E3 hype.

http://gamingeverything.com/june-2014-npd-hardware-sales-for-all-platforms/

definitive?

PS4 269k
XB1 197k
WIIU 140k
PS3 42k
360 62k
Wii 19k

Seem to be legit since they're very close to creamsugar's pie chart.

A good month all around indeed.

It will be interesting to see how the XB1 holds this month. Remember that the numbers are a bit skewed since some people probably held off buying in May. The XB1 kinectless SKU peaked at around 20-something on amazon, but is now back in the high 40s - low 60s like before.

But for now, a small win for MS. The fact that the PS4 still comfortably outsold it probably took a bit of wind from their sales, though.

 

[Rangers]

Yes this looks to be a real NPD leak...pending further investigation it seems real

Edit: Yes it seems to be real, they also have software numbers back to March, and full hardware numbers sometimes! I've saved it all. Cool. We'll see if they get nuked by NPD.

Now that the numbers are in I can give my take...looks pretty healthy all around, which is nice. There's a lot of doom being directed at X1 at Neogaf, yet I think nearly tripling sales is pretty good no matter how you spin it. The key now imo is how much of the increase they maintain.

This also means the Amazon predictions missed by a fair amount. Though I guess you could still stretch to say it was in the ballpark.

 

[Rangers]

cryptic creamsugar post

LTD for games released this year, without console bundle.

Fit - 48k
TR - 1:99k, 4:179k
DKC - 285k
LRFF13 - 1:74k, 4:139k
ToSC - 77k
PVZ - 360:295k, 1:163k
TF - 1:1010k, 360:614k
ISS - 648k
FFHD - 3:276k
SPtSoT - 360:289k, 3:236k
DS2 - 360:227k, 3:218k
WD - 4:793k, 1:500k, 360:326k, 3: 255k
∞ - 753k

 

[DrJay24]

Yes this looks to be a real NPD leak...pending further investigation it seems real

Edit: Yes it seems to be real, they also have software numbers back to March, and full hardware numbers sometimes! I've saved it all. Cool. We'll see if they get nuked by NPD.

Now that the numbers are in I can give my take...looks pretty healthy all around, which is nice. There's a lot of doom being directed at X1 at Neogaf, yet I think nearly tripling sales is pretty good no matter how you spin it. The key now imo is how much of the increase they maintain.

This also means the Amazon predictions missed by a fair amount. Though I guess you could still stretch to say it was in the ballpark.

Vita was up like 16x last month, there is no spin, the numbers are not great for either. 200k when you have a new price point after a strong E3 in your home territory with pent up demand is nothing to celebrate over. They will be back at 30k/week in July.

 

[Brad Grenz]

Very good chance of that. The weekly average across April-June for the Xbox One is still right at about 30K a week.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

This is incredibly interesting to me, because it shows quite a quandary for MS. What I mean by that is that they are losing the Next-Gen battle on sports and shooters to Sony quite clearly.

This is very bad for MS because that is their target demographic, that is where the 360 excelled. It is also important because while you'll get only two GTA's in an 8 year console generation, you'll get a new sports and shooter sequel each year. Also, sports and shooters are often played with others. This leads the all important "which console are my friends on?" purchasing motivation.

I'm not sure why this myth continues. Shooters and sports topped sales charts for both PS3 and X360 in relatively the same ratio. The exceptions being first party games where Sony never were able to make a shooter that appealed to the mass market in the same way Microsoft was able to.

It's only expected that now that PS4 has a larger install base that it would be moving more shooters and sports titles compared to the XB1.

Although it is interesting that out of the platform exclusives, at least in the US. XB1 exclusives still tend to sell better than PS4 exclusives (this is likely not the case worldwide). However, for multi-platform titles they tend to sell better on the console with the larger install base.

Regards,
SB

 

[SlimJim]

Although it is interesting that out of the platform exclusives, at least in the US. XB1 exclusives still tend to sell better than PS4 exclusives (this is likely not the case worldwide).

Do you have any data to back this up, or is this anecdotal evidence?
(for example: you saw 3 people buying titan fall but you only say 1 person buying knack)

Also, MS PR led us to believe that NPD data is unreliable, especially the Polygon website, which is an advertisement platform for MS:

But now that there is a discrepancy in favour of Xbox One sales, NPD suddenly becomes reliable?
Well, that was.... unexpected

Do we have any previous examples of NPD data versus eventual, real data?
I know for example that Nintendo published real data often; we could compare all the NPD data put together compared to that and see how much it's off.

 

[Deleted member 86764]

I just went onto Amazon to get an idea of the price of an Xbox One with a game and Kinect and found the following:

Xbox One - Titanfall Bundle with Kinect (2014) = £389.99

Which actually sounds pretty cheap, it was less than I paid for my PS4 with a game on release day, so I thought I’d check current PS4 prices that include a game:

Sony PlayStation 4 and Watch Dogs (PS4) (2014) = £384.99

Now these systems are directly comparable on price and if anything the Xbox One is considerably better value since it includes a second generation Kinect. All for only £5 extra – arguably includes a better game too. Despite all of the positive PR coming from Microsoft, they must be genuinely worried about this system if it’s continuing to sell much less than the competition (with June being one of few exceptions) and is much better value, with possibly better available exclusives (currently).

Somebody posted the PS3 sales over the first few months where it started really slowly and had a pretty grim first summer, I can only hope that the Xbox One’s sales improves over the generation in a similar manner too.

I was trying to think what it would take for me to pick one up after having had the past two generations of Xbox, but for me it certainly isn’t Halo, I lost interest in those games after Halo 3. It’d have to be a platform exclusive considering the power differential – maybe Gears of War.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Sony have tied up key third party titles in cross marketing deals. Like Destiny. Millions of Bungie fans who've been tied to Xbox for well over a decade now have a new Bungie game coming up. And not only is it multiplatform, and better on PS4, but it's being cross marketed with PS4. A pretty amazing oversight by MS.

That's not really fair. MS countered that with an exclusive, not just content, from the guys who made the best-selling CODs. That was potentially a huge move, but the game didn't set the world on fire and so it wasn't the coup they were hoping for. But it's not like they've done nothing to compete. Sony getting a bit of exclusive content on Bungie's game isn't as dramatic a move as securing a platform exclusive conceptually tied to COD. The way things are going, it seems Sony have been a little bit lucky with their platform choices that they are all panning out, although we'll have to see the effect of Destiny before we can really compare Destiny vs Titanfall business decisions. Destiny may end up a turkey and not shifting boxes.

 

[Rangers]

"That site" leaked full software #'s by SKU, too. Good and rare stuff like the old days

Wii U Mario Kart 8 401k
PS4 Watch Dogs 210k
PS4 UFC 160k
360 Watch Dogs 154k
360 Minecraft 151k
PS3 Minecraft 144k
3DS Tomodachi Life 138k
XBO Watch Dogs 137k
XBO UFC 118k
PS3 Watch Dogs 117k

 

[Rangers]

More various nicely formatted data points

Hardware US LTD's as of July 5, 2014
-----------------------------

PS4 ~ 3573k
XB1 ~ 2916k
WIU ~ 2548k
Vita ~ 1840k

Didn't realize Xbox One had nicely passed Wii U

Wii LTD: 41.8m
360 LTD: 41.5m

Looks like at current rates (only gained ~40k) this month) will still take a while for 360 to crawl past Wii. Definitely will happen no later than the holidays though once sales numbers go up as Wii is no longer even being manufactored.

2014 Jan-Jun only:

PS4: 1.58m
XBO: 1.10m

Difference = ~480k

Interestingly, I was dawdling with the numbers ratios of USA sales to life to date shipments (which is kind of like worldwide sales, maybe a bit inflated). I'm still finding that weird effect where PS4 is becoming more US dependent. Here's what I mean, with rough figures. PS3=~84m shipped, ~26m NPD LTD, ratio=3.23. 3.23 X 3.573m PS4 = 11.5m PS4 expected to be shipped. So in essence PS4 should be at 11.5 million shipped, if the ratios of USA sold vs shipped matched PS3 last gen. But, the numbers dont bear that out it's probably a significant amount lower (by my estimates PS4 is probably at 8.5-9m sold, which equates to maybe 10m shipped). For Xbox One though, the ratios still work absolutely perfectly. 360=~84m shipped, 41.5 NPD LTD, ratio=2.02, 2.02 X 2.916m =5.89m. It works almost perfectly, recall X1 was at 5.1m shipped through March. The estimate through June should be almost exactly 5.9 (we will get that number next week on the 22nd with MS results).

My first instinct was to check if declining Japan Playstation sales are responsible. The answer is yes, at least to some extent. Basically PS4 had sold 635k in Japan vs 3573k in USA, a ~.178 ratio. Last gen PS3 sold 26m USA vs 10m Japan, a ~.385 ratio. Apply last gen's ratio to PS4, it would have sold 1.376 million in Japan now, vs the reality of 635k. So, they are "missing" about 740,000 PS4 sales in Japan versus last gen. That's not the whole discrepancy, but it is a significant chunk, perhaps half if we assume they are currently at 10 million shipped and thus are 1.5 million "short".

I dont know, maybe if there is any other reason for the other missing PS4's, perhaps Europe's economy is still in worse shape coming out of recession than USA? That'd just be my initial possible guess. Whatever the reason, so far it seems PS4 is significantly more USA sales oriented than PS3 was. The ratio has changed so far from about 3.2:1 World:USA last gen to something like 2.8:1 so far this gen. Xbox's ratio has held perfectly at 2:1.

I had previously estimated Xbox needs to outsell PS by 1.6:1 in USA to reach parity worldwide. But that was based on PS3 ratios. If the new PS4 ratios hold up long term, it lowers that bar to 1.4:1. Putting it to real numbers, Xbox One would have needed to have sold 5.7 million so far in the USA (vs the 2.9m of reality) to tie PS4 WW under the 1.6 ratio. The new 1.4 ratio lowers that bar to only 5.0m. Of course Xbox still is not anything close. For June, Xbox would have needed to sell 1.4 X 269k=377k. And the ratio needs to be cumulative, so they have to make up all those 2.1 million consoles they are currently behind where they need to be (2.9 vs 5.0), on top of an ongoing 1.4:1 ratio. Just to give some idea. Looks like they need to close to double current USA sales! And a little more to eventually make up the deficit from the past. I am not sure even a $299 price point could accomplish that.

Another separate thing is we can estimate USA shipments April-June for Xbox One. They should be right at ~800k as applying the simple 2:1 ratio to about 400k USA sales now with June in gets you. (and this gets you to exactly 5.9 as expected by previous math)

If anything the real number may be a little lower due to the "channel drawdown" comment from MS last time implying the channel was a bit heavy. Maybe you might expect 400k-700k. It's expected that the ratio can vary in any given quarter due to various fluctuations. You expect it to hold only for the long term.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

More various nicely formatted data points

So 7:6 PS4:X1 in install base, but 3:2 sales since Jan. Still not that huge a difference.

I'm still finding that weird effect where PS4 is becoming more US dependent.

Strange phrasing. A more usual description would be something like, "PS4 is proving to be proportionally more attractive to the US," or "the US is jumping into next-gen PS4 faster than other countries."

 

[DieH@rd]

I just went onto Amazon to get an idea of the price of an Xbox One with a game and Kinect and found the following:

Xbox One - Titanfall Bundle with Kinect (2014) = £389.99

Which actually sounds pretty cheap, it was less than I paid for my PS4 with a game on release day, so I thought I’d check current PS4 prices that include a game:

Sony PlayStation 4 and Watch Dogs (PS4) (2014) = £384.99

Now these systems are directly comparable on price and if anything the Xbox One is considerably better value since it includes a second generation Kinect. All for only £5 extra – arguably includes a better game too. Despite all of the positive PR coming from Microsoft, they must be genuinely worried about this system if it’s continuing to sell much less than the competition (with June being one of few exceptions) and is much better value, with possibly better available exclusives (currently).

One game [that is not attractive to everyone] and kinect [that is even less attractive] are not enough to sway people to Xbone even if the price is same as PS4+one game. Especially since that Ubi game is very popular. Ubi shipped more than 8 million of them across all platforms, thats 4x of Titanfall.

PS4 still has a lot on its side, and MS will not easily break its popularity, especially this year when Sony still has to deploy its Destiny deal. And while we know almost nothing about MS plans for Q1 2015, Sony will even more attack with releases of Bloodbourne and Order 1886.

 

[Deleted member 86764]

My first instinct was to check if declining Japan Playstation sales are responsible. The answer is yes, at least to some extent... they are "missing" about 740,000 PS4 sales in Japan versus last gen...

All things being equal, then yeah sure, the Japanese sales are far behind, but you've got to remember that it's been available for a fraction of the time. You'd need to take months 1 / 2 / 3 for each country and then compare to get a more reasonable result. I still think you're right in saying interest has declined in Japan.

The ratio has changed so far from about 3.2:1 World:USA last gen to something like 2.8:1 so far this gen...

Probably because of the delayed release of the PS4 in Japan again and the slight decline of the market.

I had previously estimated Xbox needs to outsell PS by 1.6:1 in USA to reach parity worldwide. But that was based on PS3 ratios. If the new PS4 ratios hold up long term, it lowers that bar to 1.4:1. Putting it to real numbers, Xbox One would have needed to have sold 5.7 million so far in the USA (vs the 2.9m of reality) to tie PS4 WW under the 1.6 ratio. The new 1.4 ratio lowers that bar to only 5.0m. Of course Xbox still is not anything close. For June, Xbox would have needed to sell 1.4 X 269k=377k. And the ratio needs to be cumulative...

Yeah, it's not looking healthy. As you stated earlier though, the Xbox One has still already outsold the WiiU so that puts everything into clearer perspective.

 

[Wynix]

I think at this point MS are better off giving up the sales race and instead focusing their efforts on profitability.
Keep price parity with the PS4, keep getting 3rd party multiplats and keep putting out 1st party exclusives.
30-40Mil lifetime XB1 sales would be a good goal.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Probably because of the delayed release of the PS4 in Japan again and the slight decline of the market.

Japan doesn't have compelling software yet. Looking at PS3's list

At launch:

Genji: Days of the Blade
Mobile Suit Gundam: Crossfire
Resistance: Fall of Man
Ridge Racer 7
Sega Golf Club[
Mahjong Kakutou Club
Mahjong Taikai IV

Three months:

MotorStorm
Armored Core 4
Need for Speed: Carbon
Railfan: Chicago Transit Authority Brown Line
Sonic the Hedgehog
Formula One Championship Edition
NBA 07
Enchanted Arms
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden_NFL_07
And plenty more by June when it comes to compare June : June. We can't evaluate PS4's Japanese interest until it has software support, although I'm comfortable with the prediction that it'll sell less well than PS3 unless something new comes along such as VR hitting it out the park in Japan, say.

 

[Deleted member 86764]

...unless something new comes along such as VR hitting it out the park in Japan, say.

And it really could be a gamechanger. There have been stories about Oculus Rift resales in China going for crazy prices... it could be an emerging market for games.

 

[Prophecy2k]

IMO, what MS needs to do - possibly even before a price cut to $349 (or as proposed by Rangers, $299) is get those 360 users to "trade up", and they should motivate them by giving them trade-in credits. $100 might be enough. Although, that does bring into the past discussions about backwards compatibility and I'm not sure that even $100 would be enough for all those 360 users who are still propping up the 360 software sales to give up their 360s and their entire games library. It may take $150. Trade in your 360 for $150 credit to an Xb0x. Makes the Xb0x $349 or $249 and $249 is probably too low, so maybe they can tier the trade-in depending upon the sku purchased.

So with 80m Xbox 360s out in the wild, and maybe 4-5m XBones sold, you would like MS to eat a $100 loss on about 75-76m XBones?

Even if they managed to only get half that number to upgrade with the offer, that's about $3.6-3.7billion MS has to eat to give away $100 to get 360 owners to upgrade.

If any company has to resort to giving away $100 to get its customers to upgrade to its newest product, maybe it's about time they started re-evaluating why their newset product is so undesirable in the first place...

Imho, MS' issues with the XB1 aren't price related. I believe the XB1 would have outsold the PS4 at $500 if consumers believed the value proposition was there, and that as a product it was sufficiently differentiated from the PS4. That's simply not the case, and with the removal of Kinect that's even more true.

MS' needs to develop exclusive block-buster games for the XB1 for it to start competing with the PS4 at all. That's the only way now that they can differentiate themselves in a meaningful way. problem is, this take time and I honestly don't think MSGS has the chops for it. Equally with Sony further differentiating themselves with Project Morpheus on the horizon, if nothing changes for MS the, XB1 is just going to increasingly be seen as a weaker PS4, without the Sony exclusives, that also doesn't do VR.

If I was Spencer, I would be working my ass off to ensure that this is not a situation I find myself in later on down the line.

 

[B Real]

Looks like ms stores are doing that promotion again where you trade in your old system and get 100 off towards an Xboxone. Makes the kinectless SKU 299