All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

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Standard manufacturing business principles - inventory weighs on your books. You manage it as carefully as possible.
 
As an FYI - you may want to pay note to the AMD call as well:


And relative to inventory, we don't see any significant inventory build-up in the channel. So our expectation for semi-custom is that the second half in terms of units will be higher than the first half as we're going into the second holiday season. And everything that we see is that the consoles are selling through nicely.


http://seekingalpha.com/article/214...sses-q1-2014-results-earnings-call-transcript

IF I'm taking this correctly they are talking about both sets of chips to console makers and they aren't worried about their inventory getting too big at this point. I think they expect Sony to order significantly more for 2nd half and enough to offset whatever buildup MS may or may not have. I would also expect that AMD expects MS to manage their inventory pretty well going forward towards the holiday season. Might revise that E3 prediction in terms of of a price cut.

Assuming a BD-less version is well on it's way for say an October or early November release that would be where they would make the biggest price drop. The new sku would be priced to sell. That is why I didn't think much of a big price drop before then. Now I wonder if MS would just assume take the 50 dollar hit, just before E3, increase the interest with a good showing there and just ride that out till the new sku and see what happens.

I was thinking they would just have a bunch of digital bundle sales rotating around, acting as an unofficial price cut, till the fall and then drop the new sku and the new lower price for the xb1 "classic". Now if AMD isn't seeing any inventory issues then maybe they think that between Sony and MS sales will be robust combined ( maybe a better showing for the WII U as well to help out )
 
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Standard manufacturing business principles - inventory weighs on your books. You manage it as carefully as possible.

Also interesting. So there's no significant saving in high volume production to make longer-term stocking profitable.
 
It's been a while since I studied this stuff but surely a non perishable and non upgradable item like a games console could in theory sit somewhere for a little while with no negative consequences? No? Any console they can't sell right now can still be sold at any time this year or the next...
 
It's been a while since I studied this stuff but surely a non perishable and non upgradable item like a games console could in theory sit somewhere for a little while with no negative consequences? No? Any console they can't sell right now can still be sold at any time this year or the next...

Well there is at least opportunity costs for the money that is attached to those manufactured consoles instead of that money being somewhere else which could bring income. Also the manufacturing costs of a console likely goes down as time passes so producing them in the future should be doubly beneficial.
 
It's been a while since I studied this stuff but surely a non perishable and non upgradable item like a games console could in theory sit somewhere for a little while with no negative consequences? No? Any console they can't sell right now can still be sold at any time this year or the next...

There's warehousing costs and insurance for the products as well.
 
Well there is at least opportunity costs for the money that is attached to those manufactured consoles instead of that money being somewhere else which could bring income. Also the manufacturing costs of a console likely goes down as time passes so producing them in the future should be doubly beneficial.

Bingo :)
 
Yes. And even for a company like Microsoft, following Surface financial write downs the last thing they would want to signal to investors is further proof they cannot (hardware) inventory manage, just as they are about the become the second largest phone manufacturer...
 
Yes. And even for a company like Microsoft, following Surface financial write downs the last thing they would want to signal to investors is further proof they cannot (hardware) inventory manage, just as they are about the become the second largest phone manufacturer...

The second huh what who??
 
IMO those ratios are far less telling than the trends. XB360 was supply constrained at first, and sold in increasing numbers. XB1 isn't supply constrained and is selling in increasingly lower amounts. So although XB1 had a better start than 360 due to better supply, general performance seems to be lower.

There's some of that yes. 360's first 5 quarters:

1.5
1.7
1.8
1.0
4.4

X1
3.9
1.2

As you see they will probably lose some ground against that 1.8 quarter, but as they currently have a 1.9 lead, even if they ship 0 would still remain ahead. The 1.0 following quarter will be an easy comp they'll probably gain some back there (specifically this should be the Q they're shipping for the 26 September markets they launch in), and then the 4.4 holiday 2006 q, well it's hard to really know this far out, a lot depends if they do any price cut by then, but I suspect they can handle that.
 
Some gaffers have provided more NPD insight the last few days. Mostly from Aquamarine, who apparently has access to the numbers.

Data dump
Some facts about Titanfall in this NPD:



7 out of every 10 Xbox One systems sold in March to USA consumers...was a Titanfall bundle.

Total Titanfall sales are around 1.1 million including bundles.

Software sales of Titanfall are around 865K.


Marketshare (software revenue) this month:

Total console (PS3 + PS4 + 360 + XBO + Wii + Wii U) revenue:
$356.6 million

PS3 + PS4 = 42.6%
360 + XBO = 49.4%
Wii + Wii U = 8.0%

This is slight increase from last month:

Total console (PS3 + PS4 + 360 + XBO + Wii + Wii U) revenue:
$277.6 million

PS3 + PS4 = 39.7%
360 + XBO = 47.1%
Wii + Wii U = 13.1%


All around, last gen software revenues are in deep decline:

PS3: -56% from last year
360: -60% from last year
Wii: -61% from last year
Wii U: -1% from last year

PS3 + PS4 (PlayStation ecosystem): -15% from last year
360 + XBO (Microsoft ecosystem): -26% from last year
Wii + Wii U (Nintendo ecosystem): -43% from last year


Thankfully, Titanfall boosted the Xbox One's software retail revenues:

Last month:
PS4 software sales = 63% of PS3 software sales
XBO software sales = 49% of 360 software sales

This month:
PS4 software sales = 75% of PS3 software sales
XBO software sales = 82% of 360 software sales

And:
PS4 + XBO software sales comprised 36% of the software market (27% last month).

Working the numbers on that (will be roughly) that's about 218k TF bundles so, 93k non-TF bundles for X1 hardware.

Here's a complete summation of previously revealed info again. the Titanfall sales are new, apparently it's >865k, or over 1m if you count bundles.

Hardware

PS4: 371k
Xbone: 311k
3DS: 159k
360: 111K
Wii U: 70k
PS3: 67K
Wii: 28k
Vita: ~10k
PSP: 5k

Software

TitanFall - 865K alone, >1 million w/ bundles (X1 version only)
Infamous: Second Son ّ<500k
South Park: SoT< 440k, 360 55%
Dark Souls 2 < 350k PS3 ~51%
MGSV: GZ =278k, PS4 ~ 54%, XBO ~ 20% (both combined 204k), PS3 ~ 19%
FFXHD - 260k (208k PS3, 52k Vita)
Yoshi's New Island <160k (135K SW, 25K Hardware bundle)
GTA V ~150K
Donkey Kong: Tropical Freeze - 84K (highest selling Wii U game this month)

Total PS4 software = 6.78M
Total XBO software = 7.48M

The total PS4/X1 software is actually lifetime to date. For example MS already said 1.4m X1 games were sold in March. I was a little surprised, it seems a little low, hard to know what to expect for platform software sales. But I guess if (not counting bundles) TF sold 865k in March, then all other X1 games combined sold ~535k in March.
 
360 + XBO (Microsoft ecosystem): -26% from last year
And remember this is Titanfall release month [shock] the rest of the year looks dull WRT announced titles

dwaaarp dwaaarp dwaaarp dwaaarp abandon ship
they have to cut price now, or else gulp it was nice knowing you xbox
 
And remember this is Titanfall release month [shock] the rest of the year looks dull WRT announced titles

dwaaarp dwaaarp dwaaarp dwaaarp abandon ship
they have to cut price now, or else gulp it was nice knowing you xbox

Lets see what is announced at E3, I honestly am somewhat convinced Sony will screw up and lets be honest MS isn't going to sit back and allow Sony to dominate without a fight. Sony seems to be having some issues at the studios, I doubt we'll see UC 4 anytime soon. Drive Club still isn't released, there are signs that there are some issues and I expect E3 to be very interesting perhaps not due to the announcements but for what isn't like release dates. If Sony continues to sell hardware at a record pace but the software doesn't come sooner than later there will be consequences.
 
I don't see Sony screwing it up. They have too many talented teams, I know they're holding a lot back for E3. I think they're both aiming to leave a big impression.
 
And remember this is Titanfall release month [shock] the rest of the year looks dull WRT announced titles

dwaaarp dwaaarp dwaaarp dwaaarp abandon ship
they have to cut price now, or else gulp it was nice knowing you xbox

Pretty much. It's just not gonna sell at 499, even with a pack in I think. Especially now that people have tasted 449.

449+ pack in isn't even enough to tackle PS4 probably. All though it might gain more traction if it was official and thus universal and advertised.

I think the 141k in January is much closer to the true X1 baseline at 499. April will probably be pretty bad. Even though it was $449 at many retailers for like the first 3 weeks of the month.

311k last month/5=62.2k/week, X4=249K projection for April. That's if they even sustain March's sales rate which seems unlikely.

Edit: I decided to look back and see when the $449 sales started. From google I'm not 100% but it appears to be March 21. NPD covered through April 5 AFAIK. So that's about two weeks. Not sure exactly when the sale ended either (I know Target stopped it like a week before others that I noticed). But I think it was earlier this week, lets call it the 21st. So there may have been about 2 weeks at $449 in the March NPD, and two weeks in the April NPD, so X1 may not fall as much as I thought. Given, that I still think X1 sales at $449 were probably frontloaded.
 
It's been a while since I studied this stuff but surely a non perishable and non upgradable item like a games console could in theory sit somewhere for a little while with no negative consequences? No? Any console they can't sell right now can still be sold at any time this year or the next...

The unsold stock would depreciate over time causing a balance sheet loss. If they hold a large number of unsold units and cut the price then they would have to impair their inventory which would cause a large loss.

Paying for storage, insurance, extra shipping to and from the warehouse would have to be amortised into those units, which would lower the profit margin, which is already low or negative.
 
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