All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[djskribbles]

1.1M in less than 1.5 months AFTER the holidays is impressive. I think they'll easily pass 6M by the end of February.

 

[mosen]

Yes, based on the sales split between NA and the rest of the world last year I would project the Xbox One is around 3.2M sold right now. It is likely the PS4 is outselling it at a rate of near 4:1 worldwide at the moment. When Japan joins the party it will be that much grimmer for MS. Even with a sales bump from Titanfall PS4 could have double the installed base of the Xbox One by the end of March.

"We sold through nearly every unit we could in the holiday period and pulled forward as many units as we could from Q3. However, only some of those shipments were sold into the channel in the final period of the quarter and so there was not time to sell the units through to customers," Dennis said. "These units are now being sold through to customers."

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/90...unsold-worldwide-in-2013-update/1100-6417303/

23 January Microsoft tolds Gamespot that those 900K from Q3 2013 were sold through consumers. So 3.9+ million Xbox One should be sold to date, not 3.2 million.

 

[djskribbles]

All that means is that they're at retail being sold to customers, that doesn't mean they sold all 3.9M. They sold-through 3M and shipped 3.9M to retailers as of the end of 2013. Seeing as how they only sold 141K in the US in January (their strongest market), I will bet my left nut that they didn't sell 759K outside of the US... more like 100-140K tops. XB1 is probably at ~3.2-3.3M in sales to date.

 

[Rangers]

All that means is that they're at retail being sold to customers, that doesn't mean they sold all 3.9M. They sold-through 3M and shipped 3.9M to retailers as of the end of 2013. Seeing as how they only sold 141K in the US in January (their strongest market), I will bet my left nut that they didn't sell 759K outside of the US... more like 100-140K tops. XB1 is probably at ~3.2-3.3M in sales to date.

Yup, came here to post this... Xbox was at 3m at end-ish of Dec, we know they sold 141k in USA in Jan, and their world sales are typically ~2X the USA. So yeah, maybe 3.3 million I guess.

Xbox is on the way to getting doubled worldwide before too long, considering Ps4 is at 5.3 with Japan launch imcoming. Boy did Microsoft make all the wrong bets this gen, weak hardware, Kinect, $499...

That said One still is way way ahead of 360 at the same point, so I guess there's that. Heck they shipped enough more One's in it's first Q than 360's first two (1.5 and 1.7=3.2), so even if they dont sell any more through March they'd still be way ahead of 360's pace.

Which reminds, MS could have a really ugly, Wii U-like, quarterly ship total coming out, considering slow sales and a surplus in the channel. On the good side, I'm confident it will never actually sell nearly as bad as Wii U.

 

[mosen]

All that means is that they're at retail being sold to customers, that doesn't mean they sold all 3.9M. They sold-through 3M and shipped 3.9M to retailers as of the end of 2013. Seeing as how they only sold 141K in the US in January (their strongest market), I will bet my left nut that they didn't sell 759K outside of the US... more like 100-140K tops. XB1 is probably at ~3.2-3.3M in sales to date.

You'r saying that "sold through to customers" =! "sold through to consumers" or simply you want to say that Microsoft were lying? or I'm reading that sentence wrong?

Didn't "These units are now being sold through to customers" means "these units are already sold through to customers"?

edit: it seems that I were wrong. but I can't accept 3.3M number. that's too low.

 

[Xalion]

Didn't "These units now being sold through to customers" means "these units are already sold through to customers"? PS4 already sold ~300K in the US and ~0.8M outside of the US.

I think what they are pointing out is that "X is now happening" means something entirely different than "X has already happened".

In this case, Microsoft is now selling the 900k units. That is something they are doing currently - not something they have done. Until they actually say they have done it, it probably isn't correct to say they have.

Also note that in the case of the PS3, you get the ~1:2 ratio for US Sales : World Wide sales. Everyone is of course estimating. You could us the exact PS4 ratio of .8/.3=~2.6 for Microsoft and get ~400k, but even with that you are looking at maybe 3.4 million sold. With the Japanese launch, it is possible to believe that the PS4 might go up 2:1 world wide.

 

[djskribbles]

You'r saying that "sold through to customers" =! "sold through to consumers" or simply you want to say that Microsoft were lying? or I'm reading that sentence wrong?

Didn't "These units are now being sold through to customers" means "these units are already sold through to customers"?

edit: it seems that I were wrong. but I can't accept 3.3M number. that's too low.

I'm not saying MS is lying. In their own statement, they sold-through 3M to customers and shipped 3.9M as of the end of 2013. They are just explaining why there were 900K units unsold. Some of them are sitting on retail shelves and/or in warehouses, and some of them were just sold into the channel (in other words, they were just sold to retailers) so they are just in the process of being sold to customers now. That doesn't mean they sold-through all 3.9M to customers, and they never claimed that they did.

Microsoft has always sold the most in the US... the US made up for almost 60% of the X360's sales. They only managed to sell 141K in the US in January... that's a fact. AT BEST they sold equally as much elsewhere.

 

[Phil]

Wow thats impressive. With the Japanese launch this week they probably will hit 6 million by the end of Februray.

Does the PS4 offer enough for Japan at the moment? I'm not really that sure. Maybe they have different games than we do, but there's no Tekken and the best games on the PS4 so far seem to be westernized games like shooters (CoD, BF4, KillZone) with some others along. Resogun might get a strong following, but I don't see that carrying a lot of weight.

I hope I'm wrong and MGS is just arround the corner... any one from Japen here that can tell us if there is any big hype surrounding the PS4 launch? Lots of pre-orders?

 

[Brad Grenz]

Also note that in the case of the PS3, you get the ~1:2 ratio for US Sales : World Wide sales. Everyone is of course estimating. You could us the exact PS4 ratio of .8/.3=~2.6 for Microsoft and get ~400k, but even with that you are looking at maybe 3.4 million sold. With the Japanese launch, it is possible to believe that the PS4 might go up 2:1 world wide.

And, of course, the ratio of NA to the rest of the world is probably much worse than the PS4's. 3.4M is probably close to the number for the end of February, but by then PS4 should be well above 6M.

Does the PS4 offer enough for Japan at the moment? I'm not really that sure. Maybe they have different games than we do, but there's no Tekken and the best games on the PS4 so far seem to be westernized games like shooters (CoD, BF4, KillZone) with some others along. Resogun might get a strong following, but I don't see that carrying a lot of weight.

I hope I'm wrong and MGS is just arround the corner... any one from Japen here that can tell us if there is any big hype surrounding the PS4 launch? Lots of pre-orders?

I'm not from Japan, but reportedly the preorders sold out really fast. I think there's a decent chance for the home console market in Japan to stabilize around the PS4. Last gen between the Wii fad, Microsoft buying up exclusive RPGs and the complexity of developing for PS3 resulted in a lack of confidence for lots of Japanese studios and publishers. With WiiU tanking, Xbox One being a non-issue and the ease of development for PS4 we could see a level of confidence that PS4 is the place to be. FFXIV has been a decent hit, the new Yakuza got good reviews and there will be a Dynasty Warriors game at launch so they'll have stuff to play. We're also starting to see more activity among Japanese indies including kickstarters, a number of which have included PS4 ports as goals.

 

[DieH@rd]

Does the PS4 offer enough for Japan at the moment?

~4-5 original games for launch, GZ in late march, Deep Down in second half of year, FFXV next year.

Sony will hold launch party this weekend in Tokyo [midnight sales opening], devs from Square will be present. Perfect timing for few announcements.

 

[Xbat]

I have a feeling remote play could be quite big in Japan, they have a good internet infrastructure and love hand helds.

 

[Rangers]

I'm not saying MS is lying. In their own statement, they sold-through 3M to customers and shipped 3.9M as of the end of 2013. They are just explaining why there were 900K units unsold. Some of them are sitting on retail shelves and/or in warehouses, and some of them were just sold into the channel (in other words, they were just sold to retailers) so they are just in the process of being sold to customers now. That doesn't mean they sold-through all 3.9M to customers, and they never claimed that they did.

Microsoft has always sold the most in the US... the US made up for almost 60% of the X360's sales. They only managed to sell 141K in the US in January... that's a fact. AT BEST they sold equally as much elsewhere.

If anything I'm a tad skeptical Of Sony's figure. 1.1m when they only did 271k in the USA per NPD is sort of hard to believe. Ok, it includes a week of February, lets say that's ~ the same weekly rate as January or another 70k. so that would be 340k in the USA. That leaves 760k sold in the rest of the world, which is kind of hard for me to believe, simply based on USA/World typical ratios etc. Not really sure where that vast number is selling. I'm sure some will wave their hands at 53 territories or whatever, but the top few account for almost all sales in reality. And there's no Japan launch yet of course.

At the end of the day though, I simply dont believe SONY or MS would lie about sales figures, so that's that. If Sony says it we must assume it's true.

 

[Xalion]

If anything I'm a tad skeptical Of Sony's figure. 1.1m when they only did 271k in the USA per NPD is sort of hard to believe. Ok, it includes a week of February, lets say that's ~ the same weekly rate as January or another 70k. so that would be 340k in the USA. That leaves 760k sold in the rest of the world, which is kind of hard for me to believe, simply based on USA/World typical ratios etc. Not really sure where that vast number is selling. I'm sure some will wave their hands at 53 territories or whatever, but the top few account for almost all sales in reality. And there's no Japan launch yet of course.

At the end of the day though, I simply dont believe SONY or MS would lie about sales figures, so that's that. If Sony says it we must assume it's true.

I would agree Sony's figures are a bit harder to believe. The argument I used with myself was that they were still supply constrained in most places. While we have seen some thawing, they haven't reached the point of wide spread availability. With that being the case, the sold numbers may indicate in large part allocation, rather than demand. The typical USA/World ratios tend to be based on demand rather than allocation. I think that perhaps Sony allocated more of their post holiday shipments to other countries to try and fill the backlog of pre-orders they had.

 

[McHuj]

I think that perhaps Sony allocated more of their post holiday shipments to other countries to try and fill the backlog of pre-orders they had.

That's my theory, I think pre-holiday Sony "over shipped" to NA at the expense of EU. I think that was done to hit MS in their strongest territory.

Now, they maybe shuffling more units to the EU as they built a lead in NA and MS is losing steam in US sales. So far I think Sony is playing this extremely well. At the end of 2014, I think they'll be at 12-14M.

 

[temesgen]

I have a feeling remote play could be quite big in Japan, they have a good internet infrastructure and love hand helds.

Wasn't there a story the other day that 50% of all PS4 owners own a Vita? I doubt that holds throughout this generation but it could indicate better sales for the PSV....

found the story - its 60%:

http://www.ign.com/articles/2014/02/10/sony-talks-ps-vita-reveals-new-statistics

 

[McHuj]

Supposedly, PSV sold less then 15k units in January in the US. I think what's likely happening is that existing PSV owners are buying the PS4 (which are probably pretty heavy Sony fans), but new PS4 owners are not picking up the PSV.

 

[DrJay24]

If anything I'm a tad skeptical Of Sony's figure. 1.1m when they only did 271k in the USA per NPD is sort of hard to believe. Ok, it includes a week of February, lets say that's ~ the same weekly rate as January or another 70k. so that would be 340k in the USA. That leaves 760k sold in the rest of the world, which is kind of hard for me to believe, simply based on USA/World typical ratios etc. Not really sure where that vast number is selling. I'm sure some will wave their hands at 53 territories or whatever, but the top few account for almost all sales in reality. And there's no Japan launch yet of course.

At the end of the day though, I simply dont believe SONY or MS would lie about sales figures, so that's that. If Sony says it we must assume it's true.

Why is 760k in like 50 countries unrealistic? That's like 15k/country and some the larger ones could have easily done 50k each. You call this hand waving, I call it simple math.

Edit: Tomb Raider is $40 on Amazon right now, currently #4 for PS4 version and #20 for XB1.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Supposedly, PSV sold less then 15k units in January in the US. I think what's likely happening is that existing PSV owners are buying the PS4 (which are probably pretty heavy Sony fans), but new PS4 owners are not picking up the PSV.

Perhaps people are waiting for the lighter, longer-lasting PS Vita?

Personally I'd take the existing OLED screen version over LCD but then size and battery life aren't issues for me.

 

[Strange]

I went back to my predictions way back in November 22.

My prediction in mid 2014

PS4 -

NA: 3 million units.
Europe: 3 million units.
Japan/Asia: 1.5 million units.

Xbox One -

NA: 2 million units.
Europe: 1.5 million units.
Japan/Asia: 0 units.

Yes I'm putting PS4 at a 7.5 to 3.5 advantage. (quite close to 2:1 is what I'm aiming for)

Other than the NA/ Europe ratio for the XB1, being ~20% low on the XB1 and the time frame that this will be completed (this should be completed somewhere ~ April to May), I wasn't very far off reality!

 

[NathansFortune]

If anything I'm a tad skeptical Of Sony's figure. 1.1m when they only did 271k in the USA per NPD is sort of hard to believe. Ok, it includes a week of February, lets say that's ~ the same weekly rate as January or another 70k. so that would be 340k in the USA. That leaves 760k sold in the rest of the world, which is kind of hard for me to believe, simply based on USA/World typical ratios etc. Not really sure where that vast number is selling. I'm sure some will wave their hands at 53 territories or whatever, but the top few account for almost all sales in reality. And there's no Japan launch yet of course.

At the end of the day though, I simply dont believe SONY or MS would lie about sales figures, so that's that. If Sony says it we must assume it's true.

Of course you are sceptical. I expect nothing less. I seem to remember a huge argument a few years back where you thought Sony were lying on their audited financial documents and risking a lawsuit with shareholders to win a fanboy war.