Can a console completely dominate once again?

[Shifty Geezer]

If you're talking specifically about this generation...

This gen got me thinking, "what if", but the question applies to the whole concept of consoles in the future (even if consoles disappear as entities next-gen ). The real question is what does it take to get a console to dominate and win the lion's share of games to the exclusion of other platforms? Before, it was something like a 5:1 sales ratio and complexities in porting (I think). It's immaterial whether it's Sony outselling MS or Ms outselling Sony or Apple outselling both of them combined - could we ever going to see a PS2-style situation ever again? Actually Apple are perhaps the ones to watch given massive install base. Could Apple release a console riding the wave of iOS (imagine a proper console from that sells in iPhone numbers without worrying about how Apple pull that off) and get big enough that the other machines fizzle out?

 

[blakjedi]

I doubt it. If such a scenario happens, Microsoft would just cut price until it doesn't happen any more. I mean, 299 drastic measures would surely get it done, if 399 didn't.

That would suck for them but, they can afford it. they'd rip Kinect out, etc.

Provided Xbone has decent graphical punch which it appears too.

One thing I'm pretty sure of though is Wii U is going to be a non factor, so there's only two real competitors. Maybe that would make it a little easier for one to dominate.

I think another factor is that Microsoft seems to have marshaled unprecedented third party support. Both BF4 and COD are now more or less Xbox branded, with exclusive timed DLC. Titanfall exclusive too.

If Ps4 wasn't doing as well (in preorders/mindshare) as it is right now, I think it might have been in some trouble. And MS gave them a big gift with 499 too.

Agree with this entire post. If MS wanted to start a fire sale they could because Sony admitted that 399 was the lower limit of their pricing capability. I wish they would do it just for launch and see what happens... This sounds like a fight to the death...

 

[ERP]

This gen got me thinking, "what if", but the question applies to the whole concept of consoles in the future (even if consoles disappear as entities next-gen ). The real question is what does it take to get a console to dominate and win the lion's share of games to the exclusion of other platforms? Before, it was something like a 5:1 sales ratio and complexities in porting (I think). It's immaterial whether it's Sony outselling MS or Ms outselling Sony or Apple outselling both of them combined - could we ever going to see a PS2-style situation ever again? Actually Apple are perhaps the ones to watch given massive install base. Could Apple release a console riding the wave of iOS (imagine a proper console from that sells in iPhone numbers without worrying about how Apple pull that off) and get big enough that the other machines fizzle out?

It could certainly happen, but the big publishers would try very hard to make sure it didn't.
I think you'd have to have one machine with an obvious unreconcilable advantage, because brand loyalty is extremely powerful.

I guess it's also possible if one of the two had significant manufacturing difficulties, the early disparity in numbers could have a knock on effect.

I don't think it would happen in one generation though, although with 8+ year cycles maybe.
What's interesting right now is that the numbers I saw immediately after E3 has Sony preorders ahead in the US by a small but significant amount, and the general Market research I've seen suggests that those early buyers are more likely to buy MS.

Now if that trend continues once the Ad campaigns start in earnest remains to be seen.

 

[Npl]

A complete domination like PS2 had with exclusive games is unthinkable - for that the hardware is too similar and cost of porting too low.

However I feel the opposite might be a factor too, the impact of exclusives gets lower each gen, if one platform had a significant advantage in power and/or policies then a slight leed can snowball into hardware dominance.
With many people playing nothing but the multi-platform releases, theres no need to be bound to any plattform.

 

[FrostZone]

I think it's entirely possibly Sony will dominate the market once again. Maybe not quite as lopsided as the PS2 vs XBOX was but 3 to 1 is entirely possible. Sony is in a very strong position right now.

 

[ninzel]

A clear winner..sure. One dominating I don't think so.
That could have happened last gen with the 360 over PS3 but it didn't because 3rd parties kept plugging away at supportring the PS3.
Both systems still have strong mind share and MS is too powerful to not be able to reverse it's temporary hiccup.
Both systems are probably close in terms of development process.
Both launching at same time.
Devs need to recover costs.
Assuming MS stays the course they have now charted since their reversal this thing will probably be old news in a year from now.Remembered but moved on from.

 

[blakjedi]

It could certainly happen, but the big publishers would try very hard to make sure it didn't.
I think you'd have to have one machine with an obvious unreconcilable advantage, because brand loyalty is extremely powerful.

I guess it's also possible if one of the two had significant manufacturing difficulties, the early disparity in numbers could have a knock on effect.

I don't think it would happen in one generation though, although with 8+ year cycles maybe.
What's interesting right now is that the numbers I saw immediately after E3 has Sony preorders ahead in the US by a small but significant amount, and the general Market research I've seen suggests that those early buyers are more likely to buy MS.

Now if that trend continues once the Ad campaigns start in earnest remains to be seen.

Could you please point to that market research? I'd be interested in reading it.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I think it's entirely possibly Sony will dominate the market once again. Maybe not quite as lopsided as the PS2 vs XBOX was but 3 to 1 is entirely possible.

That's not the domination I'm talking about. That's just sales success, not a controlling presence.

 

[ERP]

Could you please point to that market research? I'd be interested in reading it.

No because it's not publicly available.

 

[Arwin]

You could say that in the US, the 360 dominated to quite a large extent. It's not that unlikely to happen again as some people seem to think. Right now, though, my instinct says there are a lot of parties involved and many of them are better off by having sizeable competition happen from / on several platforms.

But impossible? Definitely not.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Why do you think not impossible? What sort of criteria do you feel could cause total market domination?

 

[Michellstar]

Well, it could be argued that Sony with this DRM drama has shaped this new generation, without even having started.

 

[wco81]

When was the last time that two consoles launched at the same time?

PS2 and Saturn in the same year?

 

[Arwin]

Why do you think not impossible? What sort of criteria do you feel could cause total market domination?

Just some, not necessary likely, but certainly at least theoretically possible, scenarios. I'm not going to comment on their relative likelyhood just now.

Xbox One domination:
- Kinect 2.0 turns out to be the new iOS/Wii Mote thanks to its time of flight tech. It can control WinRT apps, and developers are free to publish games through WinRT using almost any of the Xbox One's features, with a simple labelling system that limits their availability on platforms that don't support all necessary features. This brings heaps of great software in, and Sony can't counter with PS Eye 2.0 because it cannot see in the dark well enough, can't come up with SDKs which can do similar stuff quickly enough, and PS Mobile isn't nearly as good or accessible and SDK feature rich as Microsoft
- the HDMI In features of the Xbox One really take off. This is something that cannot be quickly compensated for.
- Microsoft's Azure Cloud features are a runaway success for online multiplayer, system turns out to be flawless and makes the experience clearly superior to any other platform available.
- Microsoft locks in or happens to hit just the right must-have exclusives, while not missing out on anything essential
- Microsoft manages to secure Oculus Rift to their platform, or manages to couple it to Kinect 2.0 in an amazing way that everyone wants to go for it.

Playstation 4 domination
- The Playstation 4 stays cheaper all through the console cycle, while also having superior hardware power that is easily tapped into for just about every game.
- The Playstation 4 controller, having the combination of traditional controls now polished to everyone's content (including previous 360 owners), while also offering touch, gyro, speaker, etc., turns out to be the perfect storm. Support for decoupling looking and aiming/steering/flying is added to more and more games thanks to Oculus Rift, but then becomes the big next thing and turns out to work the easiest and fastest with this method.
- Playstation 4 supports Oculus Rift and that becomes a runaway success, while Microsoft is late or just never supports it, and when they do, games have to make too big sacrifices to run in 3D at a decent enough framerate. Or maybe Sony locks it in for their platform (or maybe neither do and PC / Steam quickly becomes the dominating platform instead)
- F2P becomes the biggest thing for online gaming ever and Microsoft stubbernly refuses to acknowledge untill it is too late
- Playstation 4 gets some must have exclusives that everyone needs to have, while not missing out on anything essential

PC domination
- because the consoles are so close to PC, and AMD brings out cheap motherboards that have at least the same base spec, the PC benefits much sooner from the fact that consoles are much like the PC. Perhaps Steam does eventually release a successful Linux or Android based OS that cuts out Windows altogether (licence price advantage) with the co-operation of AMD / NVidia.

iOS Domination
- the new controller support in iOS7 is the shiznits and nobody cares about any other platform anymore.

Android Domination
- Google gets their shit together and designs the OS so that developers from now on can make software that works with any future and recent Android hardware, in a simple, uniform way, and they then release new TV boxes that support and do everything you ever need

I could go on for quite some time, but if you want more, hire me.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

But what do you mean by domination? Do you really think any of those scenarios will see the death of the rival platforms as devs abandon it (abandoning ports from middleware engines)? I can only see it possibly happening with an open computing platform like Android everywhere, but that's not a console; that's the end of the console, which lots of us are forecasting before too long.

 

[djskribbles]

If by dominate you mean 2:1 or greater, I don't think that will happen any time soon. I think the next generation will be much like this generation (except Nintendo will be last). I think Sony will have an early lead simply because of the price, but MS will eventually lower it which will significantly boost sales. When it's all said and done, I'm sure both will be pretty close, like within 10-15m of each other.

 

[almighty]

I can't see developers not leaving one console for another this generation because I think this is the first time the top 2 major consoles have been so close in architecture that porting shouldn't really be an issue.

I can also see PC getting a lot more ports this time around too because aside from memory sub-system differences the base architecture is the exact same for consoles and PC ( x86 CPU+GCN GPU )

 

[Rangers]

But what do you mean by domination? Do you really think any of those scenarios will see the death of the rival platforms as devs abandon it (abandoning ports from middleware engines)? I can only see it possibly happening with an open computing platform like Android everywhere, but that's not a console; that's the end of the console, which lots of us are forecasting before too long.

You're forecasting that? I dont see it soon at least. I've always held to the fact core gaming is a specific young-male oriented niche that wants consoles and PC's, and wants complex, graphically rich experiences. The fact PS4 and XB1 seem pretty successful already I think is early evidence consoles are alive and well. I mean hell, how much did XB1 DRM dominate internet talk for those few days? It would seem a lot of people still care a lot about consoles! Similarly, I continue to see an absolute dearth of any console-comparable high end development on Android/iOS. Infinity Blade was always the exception that proved the rule, not some harbinger of mobile domination. Plus, there's Ouya's spectacular fail in progress...

But that's all somewhat OT to this thread I guess

If you're asking for a console that's going to get dominated, froze out of third parties, well, I think Wii U is clearly it. So, at least one of the major players will experience what you are talking about indeed. Even though it is not "one console dominating".

 

[Shifty Geezer]

One console getting frozen out is more due to its failure (eg. Dreamcast). A console dominating means all the competition getting less support from developers.

 

[almighty]

One console getting frozen out is more due to its failure (eg. Dreamcast). A console dominating means all the competition getting less support from developers.

But you also have to factor development time and costs in porting to the machine has less market share.

PS2 was so different to Xbox in terms of architecture that it could simply be that most developers simply did not have the budget or the resources to port over to the Xbox.

With the new machines being practically twins architecturally I can't see that happening now.