*spin-off* Console Design Considerations & Costs

For those of you that assumed low specs were necessary due to high heat and failure rates of early xb360 and ps3, and thus the current rumored Durango + Orbis spec is in response to that heat concern, I present to you:

http://www.anandtech.com/show/6752/ibuypower-revolt-system-review-closing-the-boutique-and-opening-the-store/4

FYI

And that particular model is apparently around the $1,400 range lol.


@ SilentBuddha,

This is true. Distance does play a significant factor in how we perceive detail. Still, that would kind of suck for console gamers (like myself) who play their games on PC monitors lol.

Then again, I could just hook it up to my HD TV like it is meant to be and call it a day. Hrm.


Unrelated, with the above being true why is there even a push for XHD resolutions? What advantage would this convey? It seems like it would be a tough sell by manufacturers to get consumers to buy that with no discernible advantages.
 
For those of you that assumed low specs were necessary due to high heat and failure rates of early xb360 and ps3...
Which'll be an audience of maybe 2 or 3 people, maybe, as the vast majority here understand the high failure rates were due to a forced transition to a little understood lead-free solder. Virtually any amount of realistic horsepower can be put into the boxes, but with an associated cost in cooling tech to deal with the heat/noise.
 
Which'll be an audience of maybe 2 or 3 people, maybe, as the vast majority here understand the high failure rates were due to a forced transition to a little understood lead-free solder. Virtually any amount of realistic horsepower can be put into the boxes, but with an associated cost in cooling tech to deal with the heat/noise.

You'd know better than I exactly how many there are that assume this, but I've seen it multiple times on this forum from members that think it's impossible for next-gen machines to "push the envelope" as the previous generation due to heat and high failure rates.

That link (along with your contribution on the real reason why the early boxes had issues) shed some light on the situation.

The nextgen silicon budget (especially in the case of Durango) is the direct result of penny pinching... not excessive heat.
 
The nextgen silicon budget (especially in the case of Durango) is the direct result of penny pinching... not excessive heat.

Anything that isn't in the super luxury market (Ferrari, a trip to a 5 star hotel in Abu Dhabi, premium high end A/V equipment, etc.), is a result of "penny pinching." :p

Although in real world speak, it's just the process of setting a realistic budget according to your product goals and then making the best product you can with it. Outside of high end luxury items, everything is produced on a budget.

When the budget + item >= projected demand, then you have a successful product. If it barely meets it (PS3/X360) then you have a somewhat successful but overall disappointing product (from a business standpoint), but at least it isn't a failure. But at least MS could claim good things out it as they greatly expanded their market presence compared to the first product. Sony on the other hand? At least it wasn't a complete failure when compared to the previous product. And financially it's a good thing it wasn't a complete failure. They did a fantastic job of turning things around after the first year or two. But that return on investment is likely painful to see on the balance books. However, they did manage to win the HD optical format war, so that's something for them to feel good about. But that investment into Cell is just as big of a downer as winning the HD optical format war was an upper.

Both Sony and Microsoft want higher profits from this generation than the PS3/X360 generation. To do that they cannot just do the same thing over again. Hence, both companies are going to be attempting to expand the potential market for their console.

PS3/X360 generation showed that creating a console purely for the "core" gamer isn't going to get you the high return on investment that it could in previous generations. Although it was high risk (failures were common...Sega, Atari, etc.).

But while the high risk is still there. The high rewards haven't been for this current generation. Other than for Nintendo for the first few years due to the fad like nature of their offering (just like Cabbage Patch dolls and other such market phenomena). But at least neither company is completely oblivious. While they are reaching out to those people that bought into the Wii at the start of its life, they aren't relying upon it. Both still focus on core games, but with an expanded mindset to encompass more than the core games.

Regards,
SB
 
And much of that is profit to multiple vendors which would not be the case in a custom chip config paid for by MS/Sony.

But I'm sure you knew this already.

Silicon die area is 294mm2 for the gk104
IvyBridge 4c = 130-160mm2

Take a look back at what die sizes were used for past generations then get back to me.

I'm dubious that this kind of set up would be affordable. And by 'affordable' I mean south of the $600 mark.

Also I don't get the personal digs. It's a piece of electronics. Why so snippy and uptight? Chill.

Nothing I said or did was intended as an insult.

And yes I did already know that.
 
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The nextgen silicon budget (especially in the case of Durango) is the direct result of penny pinching... not excessive heat.

Maybe a result of including the rumored kinect more than going low budget. But as sony's specs seem similar and the costs of the consoles likely goes around 400$ and probably sold at cost, it's probably unreasonable to expect much better specs within a reasonable price range.
 
Anything that isn't in the super luxury market (Ferrari, a trip to a 5 star hotel in Abu Dhabi, premium high end A/V equipment, etc.), is a result of "penny pinching." :p

Although in real world speak, it's just the process of setting a realistic budget according to your product goals and then making the best product you can with it. Outside of high end luxury items, everything is produced on a budget.

When the budget + item >= projected demand, then you have a successful product. If it barely meets it (PS3/X360) then you have a somewhat successful but overall disappointing product (from a business standpoint), but at least it isn't a failure. But at least MS could claim good things out it as they greatly expanded their market presence compared to the first product. Sony on the other hand? At least it wasn't a complete failure when compared to the previous product. And financially it's a good thing it wasn't a complete failure. They did a fantastic job of turning things around after the first year or two. But that return on investment is likely painful to see on the balance books. However, they did manage to win the HD optical format war, so that's something for them to feel good about. But that investment into Cell is just as big of a downer as winning the HD optical format war was an upper.

Both Sony and Microsoft want higher profits from this generation than the PS3/X360 generation. To do that they cannot just do the same thing over again. Hence, both companies are going to be attempting to expand the potential market for their console.

PS3/X360 generation showed that creating a console purely for the "core" gamer isn't going to get you the high return on investment that it could in previous generations. Although it was high risk (failures were common...Sega, Atari, etc.).

But while the high risk is still there. The high rewards haven't been for this current generation. Other than for Nintendo for the first few years due to the fad like nature of their offering (just like Cabbage Patch dolls and other such market phenomena). But at least neither company is completely oblivious. While they are reaching out to those people that bought into the Wii at the start of its life, they aren't relying upon it. Both still focus on core games, but with an expanded mindset to encompass more than the core games.

Regards,
SB

I don't want to derail this thread or veer offtopic, but I think it's important to understand the past to understand where things are headed in the near (and longterm) future.

While I understand what you're saying wrt budget, it should be noted that neither xb360 or ps3 were "victims" of their silicon budget. They weren't the reason that either company was bleeding red uncontrollably.

PS3 loss was due to heavy R&D and investment into new experimental tech (cell) and using their brand equity as a trojan horse for what they perceived to be their next cash cow (bluray).

Xb360 was due to poor engineering design (imo) and lead free solder.

For reference, take a look back at ps2's die budget.

Now getting into the notion of expanded marketshare. As I've illustrated in the past, low(er) price does not equate to high(er) demand (see Gamecube, Dreamcast, Jaguar, Gamegear, etc).

Doing things which were impossible prior to your new widget, that creates demand. There are many avenues to get to this wizbang wow impression, but rarely is that possible without the compute resources necessary to enable it. Wiimote was a RARE exception.

The two or three big ones on the horizon are HD kinect/move 2.0 (finger tracking, low/no lag, eye tracking, etc), vr headset (hi res, hi framerate, lag free and accurate headtracking), & illumiroom (expanded rendering of the existing frame).

All of these are features which can expand the demographic, but they all require additional compute to get it done in a way which offers an attractive experience. By that I mean it isn't a feature which is a turnoff because it isn't executed properly. Some (myself included) might argue that kinect suffers a bit from this. To some consumers, they may be turned off at the mention of kinect 2.0 because of the poor experience they had/have with kinect 1.0. Either the lag is too much, or the resolution is too low, or both.

Point is, with proper execution and compute resources, this impression wouldn't be the case. Some will always have negative feelings for motion control, but having a positive experience which doesn't exhibit these technical limitations can lessen this negative reaction.

So, with the emphasis on expanding the demographic, I'd argue the exact opposite approach is in order.

Understanding that the demographic which is already onboard (core gamers) is looking for an upgraded experience and the ones which did not jump in this gen, obviously didn't feel enticed enough to purchase based on what they've seen, heard, or experienced, I'd say they too are interested in a ps360+ experience or just not interested in games. But to entice them, the experience obviously needs to be head and shoulders above ps360 as ps360 clearly wasn't enough to lure them in!

So we have a baseline experience of the core game needing to be head and shoulders above ps360 (expanded market and core gamer both demand this, otherwise they'd buy and or stick to ps360) AND on top of this base experience, the systems also need to have compute headroom to accomodate one or all three of the above mentioned "extras".

It's important to remember that it isn't just ps360 which the new boxes are competing with, but also tablets and smart phones. The weaker these boxes are, the easier it is for mobile devices to compete with them and draw attention (and dollars) away from them. Form factor is one of the advantages consoles have to combat this, but only if Sony/MS take advantage of it.

Now granted, the above will eat into some profit margin as more powerful hardware isn't free and neither is the cooling solution. Having said that, the potential profits far outweigh the costs.

Consider that the ps2 and xb360 had similar silicon budgets and both retailed for $300.

Both did lose money upfront, but as this gen has moved on, there are more and more avenues for profit other than just hardware or games.

Point being, if we take those two examples as base silicon budget targets and bump the baseline msrp for inflation ($400 is fair) while also accounting for psn/xblg potential profits, along with potential ad revenue, along with potential search ad revenue, it becomes clear that the risk for a silicon budget at or near ps2/xb360/ps3 levels is not high. In fact, I'd venture to say the risk is on the other end.

Introducing a box which has negligible benefit over the existing box is a risk. This is an across the board risk. Core gamers could shun the offering, and this "expanded market" could turn on the thing before it even hits the shelf (wiiu anyone?).

I'd venture to guess a box with a similar silicon die budget to ps360 would net a total BOM of $400-$450. This is pretty much what I'd expect the nextgen to retail for.

Now factor in the increased revenue from online purchases, subscriptions, ads, search, and eventual hardware profit and THIS avenue seems to me to be the most low risk of all.

Time will tell.

Of the two, it seems Sony is a bit more on my side with this train of thought (although still well under last gen die budget). We'll see what the end result is, but at this point, I'd venture to say Sony will see more success if their hardware shows the type of advantage I'm expecting to see.
 
You'd know better than I exactly how many there are that assume this, but I've seen it multiple times on this forum from members that think it's impossible for next-gen machines to "push the envelope" as the previous generation due to heat and high failure rates.

That link (along with your contribution on the real reason why the early boxes had issues) shed some light on the situation.

The case size of the "small" form factor PC you quoted dwarfs the original fat PS3, and that drew 209 watts max under load. I don't see how you can fit 234 watts in a console sized box without some expensive exotic cooling solution. Sony and MS have to hit a pricing sweet spot as well as engineer something that can scale down quickly in terms of cost.

For PC gamers willing to pay $1400+ you might as well go with a large tower as this thing is anything but svelte.
 
The case size of the "small" form factor PC you quoted dwarfs the original fat PS3, and that drew 209 watts max under load. I don't see how you can fit 234 watts in a console sized box without some expensive exotic cooling solution. Sony and MS have to hit a pricing sweet spot as well as engineer something that can scale down quickly in terms of cost.

For PC gamers willing to pay $1400+ you might as well go with a large tower as this thing is anything but svelte.

Alienware x51 is roughly the size of the original xb360. It too can accommodate the 294mm2 gk104.

I'm not advocating this chip necessarily, nor the sandy/ivybridge. Point is, a high powered spec can fit into a small(ish) box and not meltdown causing a $1b RRoD fiasco as some like to point to as the excuse for why last gen's die/power budget couldn't possibly be entertained for Orbis/durango.

...and baseline on the linked item is $500. The price goes up according to what you put into it, but bottom line, a console-sized box CAN accommodate a top-of-the-line pc spec.
 
The x51 is about 2x the size of a 360.

~640 cubic inches to the 360's ~360ci

13.5" x 12.5" x 3.75"
vs
12.15" x 10.15" x 3.27"

It's a small box which could be sold as a console. Is it really that much of a stretch for you to accept?

I'll take it a step further.

A standard 17" wide chassis would not prohibit the adoption of a nextgen console. Conversely, a 5x5x1 box would not sell like gangbusters. Want proof? Check Wiiu's small box form factor and how that is luring customers to fling them of the shelves ...

Again, point is, small(ish) box + high powered spec != RRoD.
 
To expand marketshare its also necessary to keep the customers you have now.The so called core gamers are not going to stay just because of Halo,Gears,Forza and some meaningsless achievement points.
By the way, i doubt larger console boxes would be really a problem for most c
consumers.
 
I agree with ChefO mostly in that they should aim to pack as much power as they can in the box within reasonable limits. 200w (and a little over actually) is on the high end for fat launch PS3. But even then the failure rates were acceptable (YLOD <> RROD). Could they do it again? Yes I think so. I don't think PS3 fat was the pinnacle of their cooling design ability, although it was good.

Orbis should be around 150w. Durango, closer to 100w... but who knows with MS. It could be a bait and switch with a higher end model later, like I've been suspecting the last little while with all the supporters of that coming out in droves :|
 
I agree with ChefO mostly in that they should aim to pack as much power as they can in the box within reasonable limits. 200w (and a little over actually) is on the high end for fat launch PS3. But even then the failure rates were acceptable (YLOD <> RROD).
You might want to look into that. YLOD long-term failures seem very high. Although there are no official figures, so you won't actually get any answers there. But as mentioned before, that wasn't due to power draw per se so is moot. they can go with any power draw they choose, and escalate price accordingly.
 
True, there is no set power limit. But I do think noise becomes the main factor after a certain point. My fat PS3 is probably at the limits of what I can accept when running at load, which is probably a bit less than 360 running full speed with the 12x DVD drive and all. So I think they would want to avoid having to cool anything more than that. And going with a quiet mini tower ATX like case to dampen noise is probably off the table size wise. So I think that makes the PS3 fat case a realistic console limit considering power, size and noise.
 
Heat doesn't cause RROD/YLOD. The problem is not heat, it's money. It's always about money :???: It's easy to make a good heat sinking in a small space, it's difficult to do it for cheap. If they would have gone with a 250W beast for next gen, the cost would have been high, and require a lot of copper and aluminum. The choice is either spend maybe 20$ more per console for good heat management, or make the console less powerful, or risk another RROD fiasco.

RROD wasn't just caused by lead-free solder change, the heat was certainly a multiplier of other issues, although not a cause. The heatsink/fan was insufficient, the attachment was extremely cheap and the board was flexing. If it was the solder, the repaired ones wouldn't continue to fail after being reflowed. They also wouldn't have had to add a secondary heat sink to the repaired ones (which would still fail, just later). This has nothing to do with the possibility of making a good heat management in a small space, it's because it's expensive. These electronic devices are tested significantly before coming to market, I don't believe for a second they didn't know how borderline their design was. It's not a risk, it's not an unknown. The gamble for additional profits is about cutting corners, and they just cut too much this time. Because heat sinking is expensive.

I'm lucky I have a launch PS3 that was used daily for 6 years, and it still works. I have a friend who wasn't so lucky (I have A/C, he doesn't, put that in your statistics). As far as I know it was a large contiguous batch of fat PS3 that YLOD, and it's caused only by the solder. When they are reflowed they work, so it's not a design issue. The insane production cost of the fat PS3 wasn't only because of the BR drive, it was also because the heat management was expensive. So RROD/YLOD are avoided by spending more money. It's not a "risk".
 
RROD wasn't just caused by lead-free solder change, the heat was certainly a multiplier of other issues, although not a cause. The heatsink/fan was insufficient, the attachment was extremely cheap and the board was flexing. If it was the solder, the repaired ones wouldn't continue to fail after being reflowed. They also wouldn't have had to add a secondary heat sink to the repaired ones (which would still fail, just later). This has nothing to do with the possibility of making a good heat management in a small space, it's because it's expensive. These electronic devices are tested significantly before coming to market, I don't believe for a second they didn't know how borderline their design was. It's not a risk, it's not an unknown. The gamble for additional profits is about cutting corners, and they just cut too much this time. Because heat sinking is expensive.

All of the problems you just mentioned wouldn't have been a problem with leaded solder. Leaded solder has a wider range of acceptable temperatures before possible failure sets it. It is also better able to deal with flexing, jiggling, etc.

While most of the top electronics manufacturer's have come to terms with how to deal with leaded solder, the lower tier manufacturer's haven't. Take a look at failure rates for electronic devices which frequently have things inserted and removed (memory card readers, USB extenders, power strips, etc.). With leaded solder the failure rates of those devices would be much lower than they are. What's the point of pointing that out? The "flexing" of the X360 PCB is normal. Leaded solder would have dealt with that easily. Eventually it would have failed, but not for quite a long time. Likely longer than the expected life of the console.

The rapid and relatively extreme changes in temperature and the relatively normal PCB flex are all things that lead free solder has problems with due to it's much more brittle nature.

BTW - reflowing wouldn't have made it last any longer since it was still the same brittle lead free solder.

And yes, lead free solder annoys me. It presented an almost miniscule environmental impact which was enough to ignite hysteria about it's potential impact. Which in the end costs consumers and businesses billions of dollars. Ended up with more electronics in landfills and salvage yards (spending part time working at recycling computers at a salvage yard in Japan, I saw the explosion of almost new electronics that we'd get in once devices using lead free solder showed up on the market in massive quantities). And did nothing to increase environmental safety. It sure did pad a lot of politicians pockets though. Yes, thank you so much for less reliable electronics.

Regards,
SB
 
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