Bagel seed
Veteran
Yup, so a figure north of 10 mil in the first year wouldn't be very surprising. Especially if they can pull off a worldwide launch this year.
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Yup, so a figure north of 10 mil in the first year wouldn't be very surprising. Especially if they can pull off a worldwide launch this year.
This is clearly "shipped" numbers. But also, we talk of 2013, are we talking calendar year, or fiscal year? Calendar year would be what 2-3 months of sales (they are talking about having stores starting to stock in Sept? Wow that's earlier than I predict they'd need for a November launch... maybe Sept/Oct launch?). If it's fiscal year, in the US that ends in September doesn't it, so that would be like 11 months of shipments?
As for actual sales... I think they'd be happy with 5 mil world wide sales for calendar year, and 15mil fiscal year would be grand!
I thought fiscal year ended in March, so only about 3 more months of sales.
Shipped to channel, not sold to installed base, is probably what they're thinking.
Wii U isn't coming close to that. Are the PS4 and Durango really going to sell that much better?
Will they be noticeably better to the casual observer than Wii U games? Remember, a lot of people see no difference between DVD and Blu-Ray or say they don't.
Shipped to channel, not sold to installed base, is probably what they're thinking.
Wii U isn't coming close to that. Are the PS4 and Durango really going to sell that much better?
Will they be noticeably better to the casual observer than Wii U games? Remember, a lot of people see no difference between DVD and Blu-Ray or say they don't.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
Except both X360 and PS3 launched prior to the global economic crash. Durango and PS4 will be launching well into the economic downturn with people being more realistic about the chances (or non-chance) of an economic recovery in the near future.
I have a tough time seeing 10 million if PS4 launches at the rumored 400+ USD price point. If they offered a 299 USD and 399 USD model, I could see the potential there.
That can only account for a limited number of consoles. The channel will generally only tolerate holding ~4-8 weeks worth of stock depending on the product and how often a manufacturer resupplies. In the case of PS4, I don't see the channel being willing to hold more than 1-2 million in excess inventory. Especially if it isn't during the Holiday season.
Which if we are talking 1 year from launch. That Holiday season will be at the start of the year. Which means there won't be a large stockpile in the channel at the end of the first year of sales.
Regards,
SB
Thing is, the best years of sales for the PS3/360 are from 2008-2010, when you'd expect sales to slump the most. Either the economy didn't show any effect, or were there no downturn, sales would have been much greater. Sales have actually gotten worse since 2010, but I'm mostly chalking that up to the fact that if you had any inclination of picking up either of those two consoles, you would have done so by now. The market buying a 360/PS3 today is completely different from the one buying in 2007-2009.
Bagel seed
Veteran
Launched prior and still survived, and during the heart of the crash too. Sony went on to ship 10 and 13 mil in 2008 and 2009 when people were throwing themselves out of buildings in fact. Edit: Agrees with dagamer
Any economic effects are a bit overstated I think. The general loss of interest in HD console gaming is the one we need to see if it's really true. The existing core base need to see a reason to upgrade. I think there'll be enough of those in the first year.
At least 10 mil worldwide should be a lock at $399. If they can't do that then I'd say that is pretty poor performance. We'll see.
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Mostly it's just that entertainment has always been quite resilient to poor economic conditions. This doesn't suggest Sony should have grand expectations for the PS4, merely that a poor economy won't be the culprit for a decline.
Through 2 holiday seasons is possible Sony would ship 16m, otherwise it's just digitimes being random.
Through 2 holiday seasons is possible Sony would ship 16m, otherwise it's just digitimes being random.
They must be using their old definition of "shipped" which meant shipped to their own distribution warehouses.
Because calender 2013 means selling 16 million units over a 3 or 4 month period with a holiday launch and FY 2013 ends the first quarter of 2014 for Sony and only provides them with an additional 3 months. No way they can ship that many consoles into retail over either time period.
Now if the PS4 launched today that would be possible but if we are talking a holiday day launch, I seriously doubt it.
Because calender 2013 means selling 16 million units over a 3 or 4 month period with a holiday launch and FY 2013 ends the first quarter of 2014 for Sony and only provides them with an additional 3 months. No way they can ship that many consoles into retail over either time period.
Now if the PS4 launched today that would be possible but if we are talking a holiday day launch, I seriously doubt it.
Or they could have meant PS3+PS4 rather than just PS4. Etc.
I havent investigated but as far as I know this basically amounts to a twitter rumor sourced from some Japanese language twitters (that is the first place I saw it, the digitimes article came later afaik and may very well be using twitter as it's "sources" given their past lack of reliability). Too many variables to do much besides dismiss it imo, because it definitely seems unrealistically high.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
Yes, they had their best years when smartphones and tablets weren't as popular as they are now. Consoles at the time were the best bang for the buck for distracting you and your family from the recession. Tablets and smartphones have displaced them in many aspects as a more "practical" way to distract yourself from the global recession. Those people can always use the excuse that they needed a phone anyway. Or that need a portable device and are getting a tablet instead of a notebook. There isn't an easy practical excuse for a console. Although PS3 had one big one in that it was a way to get into BluRay. There won't be such an incentive for PS4.
As well, many people still had a lot of optimism that the economy in whatever country they lived in would be recovering. Now, we're going on 5 years of a global recession with no end in sight. That's a far cry from being 1-2 years into it and hoping it is going to end soon. And hence buying entertainment products to distract yourself while cutting back other aspects of your life (travel, eating out, house renovations, etc.). Thus it's not surprising that while the consoles did well (entertainment products to distract), the housing market, airlines, and restaurant business all suffered huge setbacks with either consolidation, downsizing or businesses going out of business in those sectors.
Regards,
SB
Are we even in a global recession right now? The US certainly isn't right now, just a slower than wanted job market (but it is clearly improving based on unemployment percentage and the perception it gives that things are getting better).
Kojima's impression based on second hand account of the first PS4 presentation:
http://www.edge-online.com/news/hideo-kojima-on-sonys-ps4-plans/
I agree. Sony haven't shown any "must have" title or feature yet. Since they didn't demo all the PS4 features, it's difficult for us to get excited too.
http://www.edge-online.com/news/hideo-kojima-on-sonys-ps4-plans/
I agree. Sony haven't shown any "must have" title or feature yet. Since they didn't demo all the PS4 features, it's difficult for us to get excited too.
Well some of the EU countries are in recession, because of bitter IMF medicine or self-imposed austerity in the case of the UK.
China recently targeted 7.5% GDP growth, though some are worried about a property bubble there.
US is doing better than the EU but the sequester is expected to take off about .5% of GDP growth later this year.
China recently targeted 7.5% GDP growth, though some are worried about a property bubble there.
US is doing better than the EU but the sequester is expected to take off about .5% of GDP growth later this year.
*ahem* Please keep the RPSC talk to the proper place, somewhere inside the Religion, Politics & Socioeconomic Climate forum.
rockaman
Regular
No environment discussion forum? 
I have a question about the HDD/BR and caching/installing discussion.
I noticed for LBP2 the online version that I got through PSPlus has a special designation "Digital Version."
Could it be that this version is optimized to loading through HDD alone? I ask because someone brought up for some games use the BD for sending movie data and depend on the HDD cache for other stuff more. Maybe the Digital Version of this game is made differently to its on disc version.
Maybe between disc and PSN versions of games they will manage sending into RAM slightly differently, at least for some games. Or maybe the huge RAM size already masks any differences to loading alone from HDD or together with HDD and BD... Maybe levels will have enough time to load contiguous areas more easily next gen since we seem much less RAM constrained compared to last gen. Game sizes seem to not be growing as exponentially fast anymore for reasons I can't put into words, not like when we moved from SNES to PS1.
I have a question about the HDD/BR and caching/installing discussion.
I noticed for LBP2 the online version that I got through PSPlus has a special designation "Digital Version."
Could it be that this version is optimized to loading through HDD alone? I ask because someone brought up for some games use the BD for sending movie data and depend on the HDD cache for other stuff more. Maybe the Digital Version of this game is made differently to its on disc version.
Maybe between disc and PSN versions of games they will manage sending into RAM slightly differently, at least for some games. Or maybe the huge RAM size already masks any differences to loading alone from HDD or together with HDD and BD... Maybe levels will have enough time to load contiguous areas more easily next gen since we seem much less RAM constrained compared to last gen. Game sizes seem to not be growing as exponentially fast anymore for reasons I can't put into words, not like when we moved from SNES to PS1.
PS4 not worth the cost, says Nvidia
http://www.gamespot.com/news/ps4-not-worth-the-cost-says-nvidia-6405300
http://www.gamespot.com/news/ps4-not-worth-the-cost-says-nvidia-6405300
D
Deleted member 7537
Guest
So selling another 100 million GPU's is not good for them plus Sony's direct investment. Of course.
It reads a lot like JHH's 'confirmation' that one console had to be Nvidia.
It seems very likely that cost would have been an overriding factor.
AMD does need the business, which means it could agree to what a more healthy player would consider unacceptable.
On the other hand, having the CPU and uncore experience AMD has on tap could also mean Sony would be willing to pay more than if it were just asking for a GPU. Being an APU provider also means that AMD has more upside to engineering another APU, which is not something Nvidia could leverage.
AMD does need the business, which means it could agree to what a more healthy player would consider unacceptable.
On the other hand, having the CPU and uncore experience AMD has on tap could also mean Sony would be willing to pay more than if it were just asking for a GPU. Being an APU provider also means that AMD has more upside to engineering another APU, which is not something Nvidia could leverage.
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