NPD December 2011

[NavNucST3]

No game, regardless of platform, even dreams of reaching CoD right now. Sony has its own pet exclusive series now that level the playing field. CoD is the great equaliser and as such, the wildcard. Negotiating those timed-exclusive DLC drops for the last couple of CoD games says very strongly that MS feels CoD is very important to them, especially because of the anecdotal FPS bias XBOX users have.



Oh I'm positive that's Acti's MO, playing both sides of the fence; right now it seems MS is willing to spend more thus get DLCs timed-exclusives, etc. I'm willing to bet Sony provides their "tithe" in other ways, like showing the game on their PS adverts or something.



Many of those own a PS3 or PC also, the hit would never be that big but yes I agree they wouldn't make such a move this gen, but Bobby seems the type of guy to hold grudges for eons. I don't doubt a denial now could mean no XBOX 720 COD 11 in a couple of years.

There is no Sony FPS/TPS that levels the playing field against Halo and Gears. After Gran Turismo you have Uncharted and God of War, GT while declining is still quite large but Uncharted and God of War are maybe around Gears levels.

What data suggests that many households are dual HD console households and/or HD console + gaming PC?

 

[NRP]

Battlefield is better than COD imo. I'd rather MS court that franchise than cave in to Bobby Kotex.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

You guys are only assuming that Sony isn't giving them anything either. I'd be very surprised if activision wasn't getting a kickback on the royalties.

I could understand that. Wrangling a little extra per game sold is usual business practice - because you are buying lots, you pay a little a less. Because I am selling so many copies of this game, you do a discount on the license fees. A cut of ongoing network expenses seems unrelated to the game. Activions already make their money. I can understand it if the deal incorporated extras, like early DLC for XB360 or something. If there's a behind-the-scenes deal in place and we only heard about the cut, that's fine Otherwise, as I say, why not EA? "No sports games on your console if we don't get ongoing protection money!"

 

[NavNucST3]

Battlefield is better than COD imo. I'd rather MS court that franchise than cave in to Bobby Kotex.

I stopped playing COD after Modern Warfare and I have never played anything but Bad Company 1/2 for the Battlefield series so I couldn't tell you. It is the idea that a Battlefield at 12M+ (sell-in) game couldn't compete against the COD 18M+++ that is crazy to me when you consider that both Halo and presumably Gears would still remain on the platform.

 

[zed]

No game, regardless of platform, even dreams of reaching CoD right now

The same could be said of GTA last gen, It was *the* game, its still huge mind but has been overtaken by COD. Ive got a feeling the next COD will not be as big as the current one

 

[AlphaWolf]

The same could be said of GTA last gen, It was *the* game, its still huge mind but has been overtaken by COD. Ive got a feeling the next COD will not be as big as the current one

People have been saying that since cod4, eventually they will be right.

 

[Acert93]

http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=23871

Did that $250M for the Nokia/WinPhone come out of the Xbox division?

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Battlefield is better than COD imo. I'd rather MS court that franchise than cave in to Bobby Kotex.

Not sure what that would accomplish. EA are no better than Activision. Both of the CEO's pursue the exact same business in almost the exact same way. Only Kotick is more willing to let you know what's on his mind. That's pretty much the only difference.

At least Activision has ruined far less developers and game franchises than EA has.

Whether it's COD, BF, Gears or whatever other 3rd party MS courts. Money will change hands and demands will be made.

I always find it amusing that people find Kotick so evil or diabolical, yet he is no different than any other CEO of any other corporation. Well, other than the fact he can't keep his mouth shut.

Regards,
SB

 

[aselto]

http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=23871

Did that $250M for the Nokia/WinPhone come out of the Xbox division?

Yes, it's in the statement I quoted earlier in the thread.

 

[Acert93]

Yes, it's in the statement I quoted earlier in the thread.

Thanks I am taking a 3 month pass for questions more stupid than usual

 

[zed]

People have been saying that since cod4, eventually they will be right.

just saw this on gamasutra
check how its selling now 'the magic is gone'. Not looking good for the next iteration

 

[AlphaWolf]

Yes, it sold a $billion in the first 3 weeks, and now it doesn't have legs 5 months later. I'm sure they'll cancel the next one...

 

[BoardBonobo]

I honestly couldn't be bothered with CoD3 this time around. I'm more interested in Battlefield and Medal of Honour now.

 

[zed]

Yes, it sold a $billion in the first 3 weeks, and now it doesn't have legs 5 months later. I'm sure they'll cancel the next one...

I wasnt suggesting that, I was pointing out I was right again. I do have a very high rate of successful predictions on this forum perhaps I should become an analyst (well I am already sortof) you OTOH I recommend to not give up your day job

 

[Acert93]

Just make sure the next time you are wrong you are just as vocal and suggest you and Patcher retire

 

[AlphaWolf]

I wasnt suggesting that, I was pointing out I was right again. I do have a very high rate of successful predictions on this forum perhaps I should become an analyst (well I am already sortof) you OTOH I recommend to not give up your day job

If the best you can do is predict something will sell better or worse (with about a 50% success rate), you're analyst abilities aren't very useful. If you had predicted after 6 months MW3 would sell 4% less than black ops (and that's not even a public figure, it's based on an analyst), maybe you'd have something to talk about. However, feel free to continue stroking your own ego and amusing me at the same time.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

I wasnt suggesting that, I was pointing out I was right again. I do have a very high rate of successful predictions on this forum perhaps I should become an analyst (well I am already sortof) you OTOH I recommend to not give up your day job

Your analytical predictions so far are not alpha generating strategies! (google it)

They are 50/50 predictions that anybody here can guess at.

 

[bkilian]

If the best you can do is predict something will sell better or worse (with about a 50% success rate), you're analyst abilities aren't very useful. If you had predicted after 6 months MW3 would sell 4% less than black ops (and that's not even a public figure, it's based on an analyst), maybe you'd have something to talk about. However, feel free to continue stroking your own ego and amusing me at the same time.

I dunno, if he got things right 50% of the time, he'd be outperforming Pachter significantly...

 

[Billy Idol]

I dunno, if he got things right 50% of the time, he'd be outperforming Pachter significantly...

Lol

 

[Silent_Buddha]

If the best you can do is predict something will sell better or worse (with about a 50% success rate), you're analyst abilities aren't very useful. If you had predicted after 6 months MW3 would sell 4% less than black ops (and that's not even a public figure, it's based on an analyst), maybe you'd have something to talk about. However, feel free to continue stroking your own ego and amusing me at the same time.

Not to mention 4% is a rather meaningless dip when the entire game industry is dipping much more than that. 4% is entirely within the margin of error of an analyst without hard numbers.

And when factoring in the current decline of the console gaming space, COD MW3 is doing extraordinarily well in comparison.

Regards,
SB