Major Nelson tweet 960,000 360's sold over Black Friday
- Thread starter tcrews
- Start date
It seems amazing that not too long ago we had Nintendo who seemed relatively untouchable and yet now I have a strong feeling that the Xbox 360 overall revenue likely exceeded the Wii in its' best year and maybe profit as well.
It's probably a lot harder to follow up a success with another success in some ways. Do you continue to do what you're already doing or do you dare take even more risks?
It's probably a lot harder to follow up a success with another success in some ways. Do you continue to do what you're already doing or do you dare take even more risks?
I've said it before, Xbox Live Gold memberships constitute basically a firehose of free money for Microsoft. It's the saving grace of the whole venture.
Crazy to think the 360 is the 4th best selling console of all time behind the PSone, PS2, and Wii. Would have never thought this was possible 5 years ago.
I thought the argument was whether or not Kinect was the main or only reason for hardware moving. While I think it's one of the factors involved, Live and the redesign could also have contributed. Though admittedly the re-design's influence is probably long gone since a slim model has never pushed sales for this long IIRC.
I have a hard time believing they will exceeding Wii's revenue and profit. Wasn't Nintendo making ~$1 billion per quarter when the Wii was at it's prime? That's just insane IMO and not a figure MS can reach.
I thought the argument was whether or not Kinect was the main or only reason for hardware moving. While I think it's one of the factors involved, Live and the redesign could also have contributed. Though admittedly the re-design's influence is probably long gone since a slim model has never pushed sales for this long IIRC.
I have a hard time believing they will exceeding Wii's revenue and profit. Wasn't Nintendo making ~$1 billion per quarter when the Wii was at it's prime? That's just insane IMO and not a figure MS can reach.
Um? we made $680 million dollars profit in a single quarter last year, why is a billion not a figure we can reach? The E&D division has doubled it's full year profit each year for the last 3 years.
In that $680 million quarter, we shipped 6.3 million consoles, and had 30 million live members. This last quarter we shipped over 8.4 million consoles, and have over 40 million live members. I don't know if we'll make a billion this quarter, but it's getting there.
Nintendo made ~$6B in its peak year (FY2009), which would give on average ~$1.5B, but some of that had to be attributed to NintendoDS, which was performing exceedingly well, too. Microsoft's Entertainment division also has other products (Windows Phone 7) that might be dragging the division down, though you never really know.
I think Xbox could approach Nintendo levels of profitability if their first party software was shifting comparable volumes to Nintendo, because they have to make crazy profit from hardware at this point, similar to how Wii felt overpriced at $250 in 2008to any tech savvy person.
Wii ____ games (Wii Fit, Wii Sports Resort etc) did have an extremely high attach ratio (and absolute sales), Kinect games do not, which ws my main point.
Looking at software sales (mostly in UK, since that's the only relevant for 360 market about which we have detailed data) and XBL activity lists, the traditional games segment is doing much stronger than Kinect (where you'd expect more commercial hits than there are since it's a new device and there aren't that many games for it). It leads me to the conclusion that Kinect is not driving that many hardware sales, even if people do opt for the Kinect bundle once they buy a new 360 console. So I'd expect 360 to perform strongly without the peripheral, as it did in July-October 2010 (after the slim console was released but before Kinect).
The standalone versions have cost $199/$299 since Fall 2008, maybe there's more people choosing HDD-less SKU now, therefore leading to lower average price (but I don't think there's any such data available), but there have been no effective price cuts since then.
10M in a quarter might be a stretch and last quarter's result is probably as high as it'll ever go, nonetheless they should have another stellar year ahead. That said, I disagree about not needing to launch a new console - iPhone 4S is the best selling smartphone in the world, but if Apple wants to stay ahead of competition, they need to launch a new phone this year not to let the competition excite the audience with their new products.
Of course, consoles do not require yearly iterations, but the principle remains the same - don't let the competition catch you off-guard. With WiiU and other devices looming on the horizon, they can't possibly expect 360 to show growth ad infinitum. IMO they should launch the new console as soon as it's possible to have a mass market console with 32nm manufacturing process (WiiU is still going to be 45nm at launch). Releasing the new console does not mean automatic death of 360 - new redesign @32nm (360 super slim) and lower price points could make it an attractive lower end platform for at least 2-3 years after next-box launches.
By that logic everybody should be coming out with new consoles as fast as possible, not just Microsoft.
And the phone market is not like consoles, the iPhone 4 doesn't cease getting new apps because the 4S comes along. Each phone is a stand alone product and one of dozens (counting Android, WP7 models), it's nothing like consoles, where you ride one until it begins to slow heavily, and based on a razor/blade model.
This is the profitable part of the gen, finally, and the last thing Microsoft (or Sony) wants to do is cut it off unnecessarily.
Hmm, is it? I guess if you dont include handhelds...
They sure dont use it to subsidize the hardware to gain more share though, since the 360 isn't 50 cheaper than it's competitor, rather it's 50 more expensive. I guess they look at it as it's own thing. I'm guessing the amount they spend on the network is pretty high, too.
Yeah, at 66m now coming off a 15m year, well anyone can do the math. Some pretty high numbers are possible if the tail is long enough.
No console prior has really seen late gen sales increases like this. PS2 peaked in year 3, this is 360's best year in year 6.
PS2 might be a tall climb to reach, because PS2 sold a lot in Japan compared to consoles today (especially Xbox) but 360 might finish 2nd all time I would think, depending.
It's pretty inevitable 360 will overtake Wii for best selling in the US this gen now. That's been trending for a while, but these December results make it clearer. Worldwide is possible/likely too. For worldwide, PS3 coming from behind is probably a bigger threat than Wii to finish #1...
upnorthsox
Veteran
So MS going to continue selling 15m 360's a year even with a new Nintendo console out. Sounds impressive, or impressive egg counting.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
That's hard to say. But consider...
Is the new Nintendo console going to take away the core gamer from the X360? Unlikely unless it offers significantly better graphics, and at this point I think at most it'll be just on par for multiplatform releases. Any platform specific titles will probably just get existing Wii customers. The same reason core gamers are unlikely to leave the X360 for the PS3 is the same reasons they'll be unlikely to leave for the new Nintendo console. MS has carefully cultivated the online portion of their service with regards to games, media, and social networking leading to people having significant online investment (friends, etc.) on that console. Many of these same points goes for PS3, except that while it's online offering is improving, it's still not nearly as good as the X360's, especially in the N.A. market.
Is the new Nintendo console going to take away any of the casual gamers that are interested in full body control? Possible, but I don't think the effect is going to be that large. I've run into quite a few people who have never touched a console who are now asking me about the X360 due entirely to Kinect and full body controls. These same people that were never interested in the Wii in the first place are highly unlikely to want the new Nintendo console. As well I've met many people (lots of them kids) who prefer the "body as a controller" versus the waggle the stick type of controls. As for the PS3, well there's not a whole lot of casual PS3 users.
I expect the new Nintendo console to do well. I'm not expecting it to do nearly as well as the Wii. My expectations are that it'll still be coming in 3rd to both X360 and PS3 for the next 2-3 years. It's quite possible that it'll do better than how Wii is doing now after it's been out for a year or so. But I heavily doubt it'll even remotely approach the Wii's glory years when it was the Fad to have.
Regards,
SB
Even then, if Wuu costs more for the same games, it won't be taking away from the same market that 360 will be selling to. Wuu may eat into the first 360 owners who 'upgrade', although I doubt that given the Live! system that's so important to that majority of these at my guess, but any future sales of a <$200 XB360 will be independent of the existence of a $300+ Wuu. PS2 sold 16 million in 2005 with XB360's appearance, and 14 million and 10 million the following two years with PS3 competing. Or rather, not competing, because the market for a cheap console is different to that for a new-gen console.
I'd assumed that the gradual price rises to "strange" values (like 107.23 or the like) were the result of such a system, but the seemingly specific and very sudden drop to 79.98 (and subsequent rebound to 99.99) looked like a kind of post Christmas stock rebalance issue that might have had human input. But maybe not.
It would be interesting to know how many none Kinect systems that were first opened on Christmas day have now been paired with a Kinect device. Advertising was pretty strong over Christmas and I wonder how many festival-spirited people made the impulse decision to "upgrade".
I bought a Kinect device this Christmas. Can't say I really enjoy Kinect Adventures and Kinect Sports (single player lol) but the hardware is cool and so I'm happy just owning one. Because its awesome.
Mass Effect 3 where I can do the talking for Sheperd will be so awesome. As long as no-one else is in the house to hear me.
I think I understand what you mean with the range but you do remember that the 360 LAUNCHED at 299/399 meaning they STILL have three configurations that are at launch pricing which happened to occur in 2005. The 360 has shed a whopping $100 on lowest priced configuration since launch. Something that seems to get lost a lot that I'll also note, the 360 was seeing YoY growth before both the Model S and Kinect were launched and we see how each/both have contributed to its continued rise in sell-through.
side question, is it NPD day...earnings season always shifts my focus and throws me off. EDIT: NVM, yes, NPD is today...unless they delay...again...
I noticed this, too. I think it's pretty clever because should they launch the next gen at $399 again it will seem to be very reasonably priced unlike when the 360 launched and $399 looked quite expensive relative to the prior gen (until the PS3 price was announced).
DuckThor Evil
Legend
I think WiiU vs 360/PS3 will be much more direct competition than your Playstation examples were and more than what the Wii vs 360/PS3 ever was. The price differential is likely to be quite small and the system capabilities seem to be in the same ball park.
Imo there are certainly going to be plenty of people who'll see 360 with Kinect and WiiU as being in direct competition and rightly so.
Well, Nintendo are releasing a new console this Fall, so I'd say the competition should release their new products soon after.
I guess, if MS are hell bent on keeping the marketshare away from Nintendo's new console, they could drastically slash 360 hardware prices, instead of rushing a new platform to the market, but we shall see.
For that to happen, they need to sell more each year than the 360. In the CES Keynote, Steve Ballmer claimed that XBox 360 was the world sales leader for consoles in the last year. (http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/events/ces/VideoGallery.aspx at around 53 minutes) I don't know how he knows that, but he doesn't usually make claims unless he's pretty sure they're accurate.
I use the Kinect at home mainly for voice control in netflix and zune video. If I never used it for anything else, it would still be worth it for me. I am looking forward to the Kinect integration in Mass Effect.
I can't agree. for those wanting core games, XB360 without Kinect will be way cheaper. For those wanting Kinect, Wuu won't offer the same experience. For those wanting an entertainment experience and aren't too fussed, then they'll consider the various options. There's certainly no reason to expect interest in PS3 and 360 to nosedive once Wuu comes out, unless it really is a stonker. 10+ million for a few years seems pretty likely to me unless there's a bizarre change in the way consumer work and these devices becoming cheaper doesn't lead to adoption among new audiences.
I stand corrected.
Apologies, never meant to downplay any accomplishments, I just always thought Ninty made impossible profits due to the console and software sales in relation to how much they cost to make. Then again as aselto pointed out, the 360 may be coming close to Wii-level profits since it's selling at a high price considering the hardware's age. They may be more competitive hardware-wise, but not in price which is where the difference will really show. If anything MS will benefit for this to be the case since early software will be less likely to show any gap in performance between the Wii-U and 360 while there should be a gap in price.
When walking into a store, do you spend $200-$250 to play CoD, Ninja Gaiden, etc or do you spend $300+ to play the same games?
