Nextbox: "XBOX Loop"

[AzBat]

2012 is becoming more and more impossible. As I've pointed out several times, Wii U is likely to actually finally get around to launching in late 12. Maybe September Japan and Nov USA That's with plenty known and many announced Wii U titles.

Expecting Next Xbox to be there alongside, with zero known and zero announced or even credibly rumored titles, is increasing crazyness with each passing day as we near 2012 in 1.5 months.

We had Xbox 360 credible spec leaks as early as February 2004 (though my link is from April 2004) http://www.theregister.co.uk/2004/04/27/xbox_2_architecture/ . Following the same timeline and knowing MS is a leaky ship in a way that language barrier-ed Sony and Nintendo never will be, for a late 012 launch we would have needed to see detailed spec leaks in early 11.

The latest NPD's just add more to it, at this point MS may never launch another system as 360 keeps selling better and better at very profitable price points.

I agree in principal that it's looking more & more less likely of a 2012 launch. However, just remember Microsoft had LOTS of reasons to leak details of the Xbox 360 before launch. No way you'll see anything like that Pete Isenee diagram leaked this time around. Remember the launch of the 360 Slim? Nobody had any idea what it looked like or that it would ship the day it launched. Also, the Kinect name wasn't leaked until the day before it was launched. Microsoft showed amazing restraint in not letting out those secrets. So I think it's possible Microsoft could keep a lot of details quiet for the nextgen & surprise a lot of folks.

But yes I agree Microsoft is making money hand over fist right now(at least in the US), so it don't make sense for them to release their nextgen just yet. However, eventually that well will dry up & they will want to transition over to the next gen. I just don't see them sustaining anymore growth after this holiday season. I believe it's all downhill from here. Microsoft needs to decide when it's best to transition. Do it like Nintendo when the fad is almost dead? or do it while has a little life left in it? Christmas 2013 just feels way too late. They risk loosing some Kinect brand equity. Makes more sense to launch Kinect 2 before Kinect 1 becomes irrelevant.

BTW, right now Microsoft's holiday 2012 is looking rather sparse. Halo 4 is about the only thing they have going. No new peripherals, no dash, no other first party titles announced either. Is that enough to hold them off until 2013? Maybe.

BTW, a lot of my responses here is more me of being a devil's advocate. I agree with a lot of what you say. Like you said 2012 is 1.5 months away, seems real remote that Microsoft will launch in 2012, but one can hope can't he? LOL

Tommy McClain

 

[AlphaWolf]

MS has never announced all their titles early.

 

[bgassassin]

I agree in principal that it's looking more & more less likely of a 2012 launch. However, just remember Microsoft had LOTS of reasons to leak details of the Xbox 360 before launch. No way you'll see anything like that Pete Isenee diagram leaked this time around. Remember the launch of the 360 Slim? Nobody had any idea what it looked like or that it would ship the day it launched. Also, the Kinect name wasn't leaked until the day before it was launched. Microsoft showed amazing restraint in not letting out those secrets. So I think it's possible Microsoft could keep a lot of details quiet for the nextgen & surprise a lot of folks.

But yes I agree Microsoft is making money hand over fist right now(at least in the US), so it don't make sense for them to release their nextgen just yet. However, eventually that well will dry up & they will want to transition over to the next gen. I just don't see them sustaining anymore growth after this holiday season. I believe it's all downhill from here. Microsoft needs to decide when it's best to transition. Do it like Nintendo when the fad is almost dead? or do it while has a little life left in it? Christmas 2013 just feels way too late. They risk loosing some Kinect brand equity. Makes more sense to launch Kinect 2 before Kinect 1 becomes irrelevant.

BTW, right now Microsoft's holiday 2012 is looking rather sparse. Halo 4 is about the only thing they have going. No new peripherals, no dash, no other first party titles announced either. Is that enough to hold them off until 2013? Maybe.

BTW, a lot of my responses here is more me of being a devil's advocate. I agree with a lot of what you say. Like you said 2012 is 1.5 months away, seems real remote that Microsoft will launch in 2012, but one can hope can't he? LOL

Tommy McClain

I agree with you especially on the Kinect aspect. They seem to be wanting to take Kinect in a direction beyond gaming. If they waited till people were tired of it then the consumer would not be willing to accept it in other parts of their lives.

 

[Vitaly Vidmirov]

We also saw PC's super potent CPUs doing all the work of the new 3D games, and Amiga's locked-down hardware couldn't compete, hence it fizzled out.

Unfortunately Amiga was already dead at that moment.
Amiga's "Hombre" chipset was about to kick some asses

 

[upnorthsox]

I agree in principal that it's looking more & more less likely of a 2012 launch. However, just remember Microsoft had LOTS of reasons to leak details of the Xbox 360 before launch. No way you'll see anything like that Pete Isenee diagram leaked this time around. Remember the launch of the 360 Slim? Nobody had any idea what it looked like or that it would ship the day it launched. Also, the Kinect name wasn't leaked until the day before it was launched. Microsoft showed amazing restraint in not letting out those secrets. So I think it's possible Microsoft could keep a lot of details quiet for the nextgen & surprise a lot of folks.

But yes I agree Microsoft is making money hand over fist right now(at least in the US), so it don't make sense for them to release their nextgen just yet. However, eventually that well will dry up & they will want to transition over to the next gen. I just don't see them sustaining anymore growth after this holiday season. I believe it's all downhill from here. Microsoft needs to decide when it's best to transition. Do it like Nintendo when the fad is almost dead? or do it while has a little life left in it? Christmas 2013 just feels way too late. They risk loosing some Kinect brand equity. Makes more sense to launch Kinect 2 before Kinect 1 becomes irrelevant.

BTW, right now Microsoft's holiday 2012 is looking rather sparse. Halo 4 is about the only thing they have going. No new peripherals, no dash, no other first party titles announced either. Is that enough to hold them off until 2013? Maybe.

BTW, a lot of my responses here is more me of being a devil's advocate. I agree with a lot of what you say. Like you said 2012 is 1.5 months away, seems real remote that Microsoft will launch in 2012, but one can hope can't he? LOL

Tommy McClain

Are you talking hardware? Who says they are? Microsoft themselves say no. If their money then is being made via software and xbla memberships then a nextgen now is not an issue and may actually be an overall boost.

The nextgen question for MS along with Sony is, how long can you let Nintendo lead with a new console? The one year lead Sony gave MS this gen nearly ruined them and neither are now in as good a position as Sony was coming into this gen.

I wouldn't be surprised if MS shocked most everyone with a fall 2012 release and a spring 2013 release is what I'd expect.

What would be shocking is a (planned) 2014 release, talk about some unnecessary risk taking.......

 

[ERP]

Designing, sourcing and manufacturing a new console has a minimum lead time, dictated not just by hardware timelines but in large part by software development time.
If MS was intending to launch in 2012, there would already be a lot of software under development, and in the past MS hasn't been able to keep leaks in check once more than a few developers have details.
For that reason alone I'd assume 2013 at the earliest.

I'm not sure how effective Nintendo's early launch will be, depends if it has enough compelling software to stand apart from X360 and PS3. When 360 launched, all the titles were billed as nextgen, they weren't PS2 ports.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Are you talking hardware? Who says they are? Microsoft themselves say no. If their money then is being made via software and xbla memberships then a nextgen now is not an issue and may actually be an overall boost.

Can you point me to where MS claimed their hardware isn't currently profitable? IF the 360 isn't profitable I hate to think how much Sony is bleeding on their newly reduced PS3. You're not going to sell people 2 copies of a game, early adopters might buy a new console, but they still aren't going to buy 2 copies of COD. And then there's the question of how you release hardware that's going to be more profitable than the 6 year old 360 and still have it look like a decent upgrade so that anyone will buy it.

The nextgen question for MS along with Sony is, how long can you let Nintendo lead with a new console? The one year lead Sony gave MS this gen nearly ruined them and neither are now in as good a position as Sony was coming into this gen.

It really depends on the hardware Nintendo releases. If it's not a step up from PS360 then its impact is going to be all that related to performance.

I wouldn't be surprised if MS shocked most everyone with a fall 2012 release and a spring 2013 release is what I'd expect.

What would be shocking is a (planned) 2014 release, talk about some unnecessary risk taking.......

The biggest effect any new hardware is going to have is on their old hardware. And as has been mentioned before, software needs significant lead time, launching more powerful hardware with what amounts to ports isn't going to have a very positive effect.

 

[Arwin]

360 has been profitable since spring 2010 at the very least, as far as I can remember. Could have been a year before that even?

 

[AzBat]

Holy Hell! Sorry I made the comment about the Xbox making money. I could care less if they are making money. So, can we get back to the original topic: Loop/Ten/720? Thanks!

Tommy McClain

 

[frogblast]

Holy Hell! Sorry I made the comment about the Xbox making money. I could care less if they are making money. So, can we get back to the original topic: Loop/Ten/720? Thanks!

But, the "making money" question is central to understanding both when the next xbox will appear, and how aggressive the design will be. If you ignore the money, then the next Xbox will ship in 2012, and have a high-end OOOE many core CPU, 400mm^2 GCN part, 8GB of RAM, and a large drive.

But, given that understanding of the finances, it becomes clear that Microsoft won't ship get what I just listed.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

But, the "making money" question is central to understanding both when the next xbox will appear...

Everything is eseential to understand everything, but we limit our range of conversation into bire-sized pieces. There's no more point in looking up...IBM's financials in this thread to determine where they'll be regards providing a new processor, or going into the physics of processor lithography to try and guess how processor shrinks will pan out. A little deviation is fine, but the sensible discussion kows when to stop. If the profitability of XB360 is worth discussing in depth, it's worth it's own thread, and can be linked back to in other threads when referencing ("XB360 is making lots of money as shown in this thread, ergo "Loop" will likely happen later", sort of thing).

This thread is about the rumours of Loop specifically, rather than a general hardware design or overall business strategy to the exclusion of the rumors.

Edit: OT discussion moved here.

 

[Vice]

Hum...

http://www.next-gen.biz/news/next-generation-arrive-2012

Ubisoft’s teams are said to be working on PCs containing off-the-shelf components provided by Microsoft, and it’s our understanding that several other major developers, including certain EA studios, are also in possession of these target boxes. While our source was unable to share precise specifications, it is believed that AMD is providing the bespoke GPU solution for Microsoft’s console. A Ubisoft spokesperson said: "We do not comment on rumour and speculation."

 

[AzBat]

Pachter finally weighed in on the rumors:

"Those rumors are silly. Microsoft is still selling a ton of Xbox 360s, and they won't replace the existing one until sales begin to slow. I think the rumors are based upon leaks about modifying the current Xbox 360 to allow it to operate Windows 8," Pachter commented. "I fully expect a new model of Xbox 360 by holiday 2012, but don't think we see a new console altogether from Microsoft until 2014."

http://www.industrygamers.com/news/...il-2014-rumors-for-2012-are-just-plain-silly/

That's an interesting possibility. Would they redesign the 360 again this soon?

Tommy McClain

 

[AlphaWolf]

They would if it would result in cost savings.

 

[Acert93]

Patchter said there is no new console in 2012? You heard it here first folks, NEW CONSOLE IN 2012!!

That said, crazy idea, but fusing a netbook/Win8 into an Xbox could ... what am I saying, that is crazy talk!

 

[Shifty Geezer]

XBook360?

 

[BadTB25]

KinectBox 2
Playstation 4 (Pretty much set in stone since we had a glimpse of the future with the PS9)

 

[AzBat]

Patchter said there is no new console in 2012? You heard it here first folks, NEW CONSOLE IN 2012!!

That said, crazy idea, but fusing a netbook/Win8 into an Xbox could ... what am I saying, that is crazy talk!

LOL, let's for a moment take Pachter's at face value that Microsoft has planned an updated 360 for Holiday 2012. Is there still room for shrinking the 45nm Vejle SoC? Would they have spent the past year or two working on that instead of working on 720? Maybe MS has reduced the other components on the motherboard to allow for another smaller enclosure? Maybe they have shrunk the components in Kinect? This might allow MS to do a proper price drop. Anyway, it sounds entirely probable that these rumors were confused with the 720.

Tommy McClain

 

[Arwin]

Pachter finally weighed in on the rumors:



http://www.industrygamers.com/news/...il-2014-rumors-for-2012-are-just-plain-silly/

That's an interesting possibility. Would they redesign the 360 again this soon?

Doesn't necessarily mean they're redesigning. The UI for 360 is moving towards Metro all the time. They may at some point reach the point where they can run Metro 8 'Apps' on it that are compatible across Windows Phone / Windows 8 / 360. In fact, it's rather likely we'll go there, and that they won't wait with this until the next box is released would make a lot of sense too. So for once, Pachter's words sound plausible.

 

[TheChefO]

LOL, let's for a moment take Pachter's at face value that Microsoft has planned an updated 360 for Holiday 2012. Is there still room for shrinking the 45nm Vejle SoC? Would they have spent the past year or two working on that instead of working on 720? Maybe MS has reduced the other components on the motherboard to allow for another smaller enclosure? Maybe they have shrunk the components in Kinect? This might allow MS to do a proper price drop. Anyway, it sounds entirely probable that these rumors were confused with the 720.

Tommy McClain

Even if they are working on a smaller box, it doesn't rule out a new box hitting the shelves.

Anyone remember the psONE? Redesigned 1st gen playstation right around the time ps2 launched.

It's just a way to make the old hardware cheaper to produce and sell with the side benefit of drawing a clear line between old, and new.