NPD June 2011

Because PS3 had comparable $50, $60 and $100 promotions and didn't see comparable extraordinary growth? We're looking for anomalous factors specific to the 360. Specific to June.

Why is 25% (month over month) not "extraordinary" growth and 50% is? where's the arbitrary line, exactly? 37.5%? 39%? 25.000001%? Why so? Etc...
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Disclaimer: I didn't check my math, so my points may be totally off. LOL

Didn't the PS3 see a 56% growth from May to June? Going from 177K in May to 276K in June. If you apply that towards the 360's 270K in May you get 421K for June. So you see an extra 86K and automatically think something nefarious is going on.

May was 4 weeks and June 5 weeks, so if you first multiply the May numbers with 1.25 you get 221k for PS3 and 346k for X360. Thus properly aligned sales jump in June compared to May was 55k units for the PS3 (276-221) and 161k (507-346) for the 360 or 24.75% and 46.5% in percentage gains.

The difference is substantial and imo cannot be explained by any "organic" event that happened in June. 360 had better promotions on top of better organic demand.


Why is 25% (month over month) not "extraordinary" growth and 50% is? where's the arbitrary line, exactly? 37.5%? 39%? 25.000001%? Why so? Etc...

It is somewhat extraordinary just not as extraordinary :smile: June seems to be a relatively strong month for console purchases.
 
I'd like to make an observation about the Xbox 360 S June 2010 numbers, I'm not entirely sure that the Slim contributed as much as people think. It was officially announced Monday, June 14. They said units were shipping as they spoke, but nobody was really able to get any until Friday, June 18 at the earliest. Amazon didn't start shipping until the 19th. And they were in short supply at that. Plus, remember they only had the $299 250gb model available. General availability didn't start really until the July 4th holiday. Don't immediately start making the Slim launch the escape goat for the June 2010 numbers.

Personally I think I agree with Brit about all the $50/$100 sales being more of a contributor. Makes way more sense than the computer sale. Most back-to-school sales are done in August. In June kids are actually graduating. So they don't need computers as they already had them. They're thinking more about summer break during June than anything.

BTW, anybody bother to look at Microsoft's PC sales for June? You would figure Microsoft would be tooting their horn if the sale actually moved some PCs.

Tommy McClain

Here is Matt's article from last year.

gamasutra said:
According to Wedbush's Michael Pachter, most of the Xbox 360 systems sold during the month were actually these older, discounted models. As he wrote in his notes following the release of the NPD Group's data: “The slim version accounted for only 40% of Xbox 360 sales, with over 35% of sales captured by discounted Arcade bundles and the balance captured by discounted older models.”

Also, I'm not sure what you mean with your "kids are graduating", well...yes...that is the point...which is probably why Apple runs a Dads and Grads promotion every June and the "deals" include laptops.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
It is somewhat extraordinary just not as extraordinary :smile: June seems to be a relatively strong month for console purchases.

Just find it a bit arbitrary to say "25% is completely explainable by normal events but 46% is way out there..."

You could say 25% isn't explainable, either.
 

Now that you relink that, I remember that from last year. As well as all the discussion about how the direct impact of the X360S wasn't that large in June (supply constrained and introduced late in the month), but that the indirect impact (price reductions on existing models for the month of June and onwards) when combined lead to the large increase in YoY sales.

If you consider that so much demand was created by discounting of the existing model that is quite relevant to the discussion at hand. I believe discounts on the older models at the time was around 50-100 USD, or in other words almost exactly the same as the current 50-100 USD discount promotions being run.

Regards,
SB
 
Microsoft had such an awesome E3 show at the beginning of June that surely influenced purchasing habits throughout the month. Right?
 
Microsoft had such an awesome E3 show at the beginning of June that surely influenced purchasing habits throughout the month. Right?

It certainly showcased kinect to a few more people. While the babies over at gaf didn't like MS's E3 presentation that doesn't mean it wasn't effective.
 
Now that you relink that, I remember that from last year. As well as all the discussion about how the direct impact of the X360S wasn't that large in June (supply constrained and introduced late in the month), but that the indirect impact (price reductions on existing models for the month of June and onwards) when combined lead to the large increase in YoY sales.

If you consider that so much demand was created by discounting of the existing model that is quite relevant to the discussion at hand. I believe discounts on the older models at the time was around 50-100 USD, or in other words almost exactly the same as the current 50-100 USD discount promotions being run.

Regards,
SB

The takeaway, to me at least since I keep harping on it, is that the 360 was ALREADY doing YoY increases BEFORE the 'S'.
 
TBH I don't think it had any immediate impact either way.

It got kinect in the news, more than it already was. The gaming forum crowd doesn't think much of kinect, but MS still managed to find 12 million people to buy it in a bit over 6 months.
 
Also, I'm not sure what you mean with your "kids are graduating", well...yes...that is the point...which is probably why Apple runs a Dads and Grads promotion every June and the "deals" include laptops.

I thought the idea behind of the free Xbox 360 deal was to target back-to-school kids not graduates. They buy a PC they were intended on getting anyway for the upcoming school year, but get a free 360 in return. I just thought it odd to run a back-to-school promotion in June when students are graduating or finishing school. Would you not agree that there is probably more student deals in August? Maybe Microsoft was doing it in June just to combat Apple's promotion?

The takeaway, to me at least since I keep harping on it, is that the 360 was ALREADY doing YoY increases BEFORE the 'S'.

Totally agree.

Tommy McClain
 
I thought the idea behind of the free Xbox 360 deal was to target back-to-school kids not graduates. They buy a PC they were intended on getting anyway for the upcoming school year, but get a free 360 in return. I just thought it odd to run a back-to-school promotion in June when students are graduating or finishing school. Would you not agree that there is probably more student deals in August? Maybe Microsoft was doing it in June just to combat Apple's promotion?


The promo runs from May 23rd or so till Sept 3rd. Note there is also a 10% off deal that is exclusive of the 'free' xbox promo.
 
Microsoft had such an awesome E3 show at the beginning of June that surely influenced purchasing habits throughout the month. Right?

I would say middle of June not beginning. The special Cirque du Soleil Kinect launch was June 13. I would think Nav's contention that brisk sales were already underway before E3, but that any discounts on the older units after E3 probably pushed the sales even higher. Microsoft had a great surprise announcement in the Slim yeah, but mainstream was probably more excited for the Kinect. The latter could have affected older unit sales since people knew they would still be compatible with the upcoming Kinect.

Tommy McClain
 
The promo runs from May 23rd or so till Sept 3rd. Note there is also a 10% off deal that is exclusive of the 'free' xbox promo.

Aww, that clears up the confusion then. Thanks. It's not just for back-to-school but graduates too. So this won't be the last month affected by the promotion. That could get interesting. Thing is regardless of whether or not the promotion actually contributed everybody will still think they did. Will be interesting to see September's numbers, but even then Gears of War 3 will have an effect too.

Tommy McClain
 
Microsoft earnings

ms ir said:
Entertainment & Devices Division revenue grew 30% for the fourth quarter and 45% for the full year, due to the ongoing momentum of the console, Kinect, and Xbox Live. Xbox 360 has been the top-selling game console in the U.S. over the past twelve months. At E3 in June, Microsoft highlighted its upcoming game lineup, Xbox Live content partnerships, and enhanced content discovery using Bing and Kinect.

...

Entertainment and Devices Division (“EDD”) develops and markets products and services designed to entertain and connect people. EDD offerings include the Xbox 360 entertainment platform (which includes the Xbox 360 gaming and entertainment console, Kinect for Xbox 360, Xbox 360 video games, Xbox LIVE, and Xbox 360 accessories), Mediaroom (our Internet protocol television software), and Windows Phone. In November 2010, we released Kinect for Xbox 360 and the latest version of Windows Phone.
Three months ended June 30, 2011 compared with three months ended June 30, 2010

EDD revenue increased primarily reflecting higher Xbox 360 platform revenue. Xbox 360 platform revenue grew $293 million or 29%, led by higher Xbox LIVE revenue and increased volumes of Xbox 360 consoles sold. We shipped 1.7 million Xbox 360 consoles during the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2011, compared with 1.5 million Xbox 360 consoles during the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010.
EDD operating income increased primarily reflecting revenue growth, offset in part by higher cost of revenue. Cost of revenue increased $118 million or 15% primarily reflecting higher volumes of Xbox 360 consoles, and increased royalty costs resulting from increased sales of Xbox LIVE digital content.
Twelve months ended June 30, 2011 compared with twelve months ended June 30, 2010

EDD revenue increased primarily reflecting higher Xbox 360 platform revenue. Xbox 360 platform revenue grew $2.7 billion or 48%, led by increased volumes of Xbox 360 consoles, sales of Kinect sensors, and higher Xbox LIVE revenue. We shipped 13.7 million Xbox 360 consoles during fiscal year 2011, compared with 10.3 million Xbox 360 consoles during fiscal year 2010.
EDD operating income increased primarily reflecting revenue growth, offset in part by higher cost of revenue. Cost of revenue increased $1.8 billion or 49% primarily reflecting higher volumes of Xbox 360 consoles and Kinect sensors sold, and increased royalty costs resulting from increased sales of Xbox LIVE digital content. Research and development expenses increased $119 million or 12%, primarily reflecting higher headcount-related costs. Sales and marketing expenses grew $90 million or 12% primarily reflecting increased Xbox 360 platform marketing activities.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
More than double the earnings out of E&D for 2011. Looks like kinect is a winner.

Shhhh!

Don't tell anyone that you think Kinect is a winner... :rolleyes:

Actually the real question is where sales go to from here and what price they will sell the console for the foreseeable future in order to maintain both margins as well as sales growth.
 
Looks like NPD will soon have access to Wal Mart data, though it's unclear exactly when this would make it's way into their reports...

http://venturebeat.com/2011/07/22/wal-mart-to-finally-share-game-data-with-market-analysts/

Wal-Mart Stores is finally going to allow market researchers to use data on the sales of video games at Walmart and Sam’s Club warehouse stores, according to AdAge.

That breaks a 10-year ban on sharing data for Wal-Mart Stores, which previously considered that data to be a company secret. But by allowing the data dump for Nielsen and NPD, Wal-Mart will finally be a good citizen in helping analysts gauge the size of the video game business. Not only will Walmart share game data, it will also share other retail data as well.

For those who dont know, NPD supposedly covers ~60% of the market, most of the rest is Wal Mart and they have to guesstimate that. Hopefully now the numbers will be near 100% accurate if/when Wal Mart gets added to NPD.
 
Looks like NPD will soon have access to Wal Mart data, though it's unclear exactly when this would make it's way into their reports...

http://venturebeat.com/2011/07/22/wal-mart-to-finally-share-game-data-with-market-analysts/



For those who dont know, NPD supposedly covers ~60% of the market, most of the rest is Wal Mart and they have to guesstimate that. Hopefully now the numbers will be near 100% accurate if/when Wal Mart gets added to NPD.

It is an educated guess based on their consumer panels but this will definitely be a boon for them but I imagine worse for us. I can't help shake the feeling that this may have been more the reason for numbers disappearing than any demands of the console platform holders.
 
Back
Top