Business ramifications of a 2014 MS/Sony next gen *spawn

[Shifty Geezer]

http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/column/kaigai/20110210_425921.html

this link..a new interview, in it Sony says they are suspending PS4 development (10 years = 2014-5 PS4?) and putting their eggs on NGP...

If NGP had TV out and camera-based motion tracking support built in, they'd somewhat fit my Grand Vision and I could see sense in that, almost pulling a Wii with current-gen performance in a new appealing package. But as just a handheld, this strikes me as a bad move. It also sets Nintendo up for new hardware, taking the performance crown uncontested for a couple of years, building on Wii - Nintendo could really mop up.

Still, more on topic, we can, if these rumours are true, effectively put this thread on hold for three years, because things could change dramatically between now and then when the new consoles start being considered again, and lots of ideas like Larrabee and Cell2 will either be known quantities or abandoned.

 

[Barso]

I agree Shifty, nintendo should strike now while the irons hot and clean up.
With the highest spec console on the Market and nintendos
famous franchises, they could really capitalise on this.
It would appear Sony and MS are really going to wring the current consoles dry for all they're worth.
It will also see a spike in PC gaming forcing the hardcore towards 1080p and 60fps games.
I think this shows how much the PS3 has damaged Sony financially. How will they compete with MS if MS jump the gun and bring a new console to Market early again?

 

[Prophecy2k]

http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/column/kaigai/20110210_425921.html

this link..a new interview, in it Sony says they are suspending PS4 development (10 years = 2014-5 PS4?) and putting their eggs on NGP...no Larabee...IBM Cell2 non-finalized...and no 32nm Cell+RSX??? I know NGP looks like a..really big project...and Sony are investing so much because they expect handheld gaming to be big......intrigued happenings at HQ SCEI!

Microsoft is also ..just mapping out Xbox720 plans....as leaked in that report! Next gen is coming like 2014? 22nm? Sounds good...i haf a powerful PC ATM.

Does it explain the reasons why there are no plans for 32nm Cell+RSX? Are they gonna gun for 22nm instead? Google translator does a lousy job of translating Japanese (though to their credit, it's not the easiest language to translate so mechanically).

How will this affect Sony's ability to cut price on PS3? Surely that should be their biggest worry as if this gen is gonna continue till 2014-15 they'd find it much harder to remain competitive if they're stuck at 45nm and the competition can shrink lower later on...?

 

[Prophecy2k]

I agree Shifty, nintendo should strike now while the irons hot and clean up.
With the highest spec console on the Market and nintendos
famous franchises, they could really capitalise on this.
It would appear Sony and MS are really going to wring the current consoles dry for all they're worth.
It will also see a spike in PC gaming forcing the hardcore towards 1080p and 60fps games.
I think this shows how much the PS3 has damaged Sony financially. How will they compete with MS if MS jump the gun and bring a new console to Market early again?

Not just the PS3 though... the global economy, the currency exchange rates... Sony's really taken a major hit this gen, not even their game division but the entire company as a whole.

I don't think it's necessarily in Nintendo's interest to though to jump the gun and release a next gen-machine now... but then again with the Wii slowing down as much as it is, Nintendo HAS to do something in the next couple of years in the home console space. I'd think it would be in their best interest however to launch a new box in 2012-13, closer to the next Sony/MS box as if they do it too early they may shoot themselves in the foot (both in terms of current-gen 3rd party development who aren't eager to increase dev costs exponentially, and later when the next Sony/MS boxes launch).

 

[eastmen]

Well Prophecy nintendo could allways do what they did last gen and just releas a slightly more powerful last gen system.

a quad core bobcat with a radeon 6850 class gpu with 1 gig of ram launched next holiday would run rings around current gen systems and devs could port existing xbox 360/ps3 games to it and just up the res /frame rate and improve textures and filtering.

Then the nintendo exclusives would take advantage of the hardware. Slowly games would switch to the nintendo system getting the games developed for it and the xbox 360/ps3 getting the down graded ports.

I bet nintendo could make such a system for around $200-$250

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I'd think it would be in their best interest however to launch a new box in 2012-13

Absolutely. Bring out Wii2 then, 2 years ahead of MS and Sony's next console. That's two years of the "next gen" console experience to themselves. It might well be cramped in style, with COD and other core franchises being gimped to still run on PS360, but Nintendo's titles will shine. Their market could be all Wii's plus next-gen Kinect+Move if they go with a 3D camera, with the added advantage of Nintendo's take on family games that resonate so well. With two years of this, where would PS4/neXBox fit in? More of the same won't work so well. Okay, there's the core gamer who likes Halo and Sony's exclusives, and it's unlikely Nintendo will have a decent online service for a console, but generally I see a small niche available if Nintendo get a lot of time on their own.

 

[Squilliam]

Absolutely. Bring out Wii2 then, 2 years ahead of MS and Sony's next console. That's two years of the "next gen" console experience to themselves. It might well be cramped in style, with COD and other core franchises being gimped to still run on PS360, but Nintendo's titles will shine. Their market could be all Wii's plus next-gen Kinect+Move if they go with a 3D camera, with the added advantage of Nintendo's take on family games that resonate so well. With two years of this, where would PS4/neXBox fit in? More of the same won't work so well. Okay, there's the core gamer who likes Halo and Sony's exclusives, and it's unlikely Nintendo will have a decent online service for a console, but generally I see a small niche available if Nintendo get a lot of time on their own.

But even if they did all that, where do they differentiate the new Wii? I see nothing in your suggestion which gives them the edge. 3D gave them the edge with the 3DS, touch screen for the DS and motion controls for the Wii. What is their Wii 2 going to have because given Nintendo's values in hardware design it may not be significantly faster than current gen consoles!

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Kinect + Move gaming as standard with Nintendo's games to leverage mass appeal of these interfaces, along with better graphics than any current console. Basically an all-in-one consolidated package of the current gen, offering Wii owners a direct upgrade path and enticing existing PS360 owners to better quality versions of the games they love, depending on what games they can get across. It's somewhat wrong to say Nintendo's hardware philosohy won't place them beyond current gen in performance. Recent hardware's have been conservative, but Nintendo have had high-performance hardware in SNES and N64, and GC was fairly on par. It's only really the handhelds where they've chosen less graphical performance for other features, and Wii that's been decidedly retro in hardware. It would't be against Nintendo's previous console efforts to produce a cost effective but still contemporary hardware design that offers...let's say current gen visuals but with substantial IQ improvements and Nintendo's trademark 60fps. Packaged with Kinect and Move control as standard, so every game is written from the ground up for body tracking (can just be torso tracking, doesn't need to be stand-up play) and Move-type accuracy, it'd be a compelling package. What Nitnendo would miss out on is the Living Room Entertainment Box market, where the games console is valued for it's non-gaming services. It's more an entertainment console these days, but Nintendo are rather backward in their game-centric view. They're expanding their vision slowly, but they are well behind the times regards network services. If they could shore that up, there'd be next to nothing MS or Sony could do to differentiate in a big way unless there's a new tech, like direct brain control!

 

[AlphaWolf]

Considering the full versions of current HD consoles still aren't $250, why would anyone use that as a price point for an upgraded new version?

 

[Squilliam]

Kinect + Move gaming as standard with Nintendo's games to leverage mass appeal of these interfaces, along with better graphics than any current console. Basically an all-in-one consolidated package of the current gen, offering Wii owners a direct upgrade path and enticing existing PS360 owners to better quality versions of the games they love, depending on what games they can get across. It's somewhat wrong to say Nintendo's hardware philosohy won't place them beyond current gen in performance. Recent hardware's have been conservative, but Nintendo have had high-performance hardware in SNES and N64, and GC was fairly on par. It's only really the handhelds where they've chosen less graphical performance for other features,

All that really seems to assure them is a decent performance in the next generation of consoles. They did well because of the unique value they could offer in both the handheld and home console spaces, what it seems you're proposing is that they can get away without offering anything which differentiates the console and to trade blows on a feature by feature basis in comparison to the other two consoles. Sure the PS3 and Xbox 360 don't have Nintendo games however they certainly do make up for it with their well developed online networks which are exclusive to themselves. Nintendo have never done well with 'more of the same' and arguably the SNES -> N64 -> GC and their falling sales points to this. A more well developed Wii was a possible candidate in 2006 or in 2012 if Microsoft and Sony hadn't offered any adequate counters. So whilst they might be able to release a console in 2012 with 2-3* the performance of the current generation, they'll need something else to go alongside it if thats all they are offering.

They're expanding their vision slowly, but they are well behind the times regards network services. If they could shore that up, there'd be next to nothing MS or Sony could do to differentiate in a big way unless there's a new tech, like direct brain control!

It'd take them years to develop a comparable online network. Sony has been trying for years to catch up and they haven't, whilst Nintendo doesn't seem to have tried!

 

[Shifty Geezer]

All that really seems to assure them is a decent performance in the next generation of consoles. They did well because of the unique value they could offer in both the handheld and home console spaces, what it seems you're proposing is that they can get away without offering anything which differentiates the console and to trade blows on a feature by feature basis in comparison to the other two consoles.

Sure. After all, not every product in the world has to be unique. Almost all go toe-to-toe in features, just offering a bit better experience or a bit better value.

In this case, Kinect and Move are fragmented, like EyeToy. Wii2 could offer the very best camera and motion interface, dealing with some of the interface issues by using higher resolution and faster cameras than Kinect, say, allowing for a wider FOV, and provding much better Move-like experiences because every game will target that interface, rather than currently on PS3 where it's hit and miss, or being added as an after thought. An iterative step from the current gen seems perfectly valid to me.

Nintendo have never done well with 'more of the same' and arguably the SNES -> N64 -> GC and their falling sales points to this.

That's too few sample points to demonstrate any trends, in a changing environment.

[quiote]A more well developed Wii was a possible candidate in 2006 or in 2012 if Microsoft and Sony hadn't offered any adequate counters.[/quote]I don't think MS and Sony have offered adequate counters. Maybe Kinect does this. Move doesn't IMO as like EyeToy, it's just a peripheral and is only getting marginal support. Kinect has current momentum, but whether that's sustained to carry a new platform has yet to be seen, although the variety of what's appearing on PC points to enough new experiences to carry the platform like Wii carried GC ahrdware. But even then, Wii2 could offer an improved experience for a similar cost and be a direct upgrade path for current Wii owners, including BC or at least continuing their current favourite franchises. So Nintendo are definitely not squeezed out of the future by Kinect and Move.

It'd take them years to develop a comparable online network. Sony has been trying for years to catch up and they haven't, whilst Nintendo doesn't seem to have tried!

That's partially true, although Sony's inability to pull off more than they have isn't because it's hard so much as they are in a bit of a mess. At it's core PSN on PS3 was a workable online experience built pretty much from scratch. If Nintendo have been working on a decent network in the background for years (there was rumour of such a Mario NET before Wii, which proved to be nothing, but it shows things could have been happening only with nintendo not wanting to roll their designs out piecemeal but instead waiting for a final product that meets their high QA), it's certainly possible, if not particularly probable, for Wii2 to have a decent network structure and services.

 

[Tahir2]

TBH I think the current graphics level with high AA and 60 FPS as standard would be good enough to count as 'next-gen' for lots of consollers.

Perhaps, but we still need better shadows and global illumination to increase visual quality. A 5770 class card may get us 1080p with 4x AA and 16x AF for current level graphics but it isn't really enough processing power especially now we may also expect better physics in games as well.

For that reason, and also because current gen consoles are still being maxed out performance wise, if the rumours are true and we are to wait another 4 years for a new console from Sony, I am not too displeased.

Edit: Add to the fact that in 2014-15 we may begin to see the shift to 4K screens all of a sudden we may be at square one again.

 

[Prophecy2k]

To be 'powerful enough,' it only needs to provide sufficient visual upgrade from the current hardware. TBH I think the current graphics level with high AA and 60 FPS as standard would be good enough to count as 'next-gen' for lots of consollers. Obviously a monster machine in 2014 will provide significant graphical advances that it looks as much of a generational improvement as this gen did over last, but a fair compromise between cost, power, and visual results, is attainable for a 2012 machine that expects 2 years before it looks dated, and it can still endure as Wii has.

But then the point stands... when you think about it... lets say Nintendo does put out a 5770-level performance box in 2012, who would they target? And would the core gamer really care about it?

Nintendo isn't gonna be able to create a PSN or XBL overnight and so will all of your COD,MADDEN, HALO, Masse Effect core and casual gamers really be persuaded to fork out for a new Nintendo console in 2012 for "better graphics" when they almost definitely will be loosing out when it comes to the online infrastructure?

Will Nintendo really be able to seduce them away when many will be undoubtedly waiting for Sony and MS? (i'd wager a sizeable proportion would want to stick with their current HW platform holders for no other reason than being able to transfer their purchased DD content).

I'm skeptical as to whether it would be a good move for Nintendo at all. In my opinion they should wait till much closer to the next Sony & MS box launches, if only to give them enough time to develop a solid online platform. They can start with what they developed for the Wii, and push it further by leveraging the 3DS' installed base (who will most likely be more "core" than "casual" this time given that the casual portable gamers would be more inclined to game on iOS/Android).

Nintendo waiting to 2013 at the latest would still give them a whole year ahead of the other two whilst also affording them the time to dream up a new gimmick for their next-gen home console. Maybe auto-stereoscopic 3D in the home would be ready by then?

 

[acaeus]

juggling act?

After trying kinect and finding it pretty much a waste of my time (not money cause it's been returned), I wonder whether the alternative forms of game interaction and handheld controllers are mutually exclusive--I tend to think they are.

The type of games that most gamers like, don't work too well (evidence so far) with these new alternative handsfree/move like controllers. I am honestly concerned that the big gaming companies, influenced by nintendo Wii's success, could go too far next gen.

They could even force some interaction like the PS3 did with sixaxis in a number of games making you move/shake the controller in a certain (awkward) manner which did not fit the gameplay at all. Nintendo did the same in certain games too, like Super Mario Galaxy.

I hope that they provide the different types of controllers/camera? One traditional handheld for RPG, arcade, adventure, etc and another alternative for, well alternative/party games. Trying to provide a common interface/controller that works for all games may not be feasible IMO.

 

[MarkoIt]

For Nintendo it makes sense to launch at the end of 2012. I'm pretty sure that Microsoft will launch in 2013... In 3 years, Xbox360 can sell up to 30 million console, and priced in 2014 at an extreme low price (99$), might sell a bit more.
By the end of this generation, MS should be even or finally getting some real cash out of the console business (they are still down 5+ billions dollar since 2001).

If I were a MS and Sony CEO looking down to this chart i would probably think that selling a console under their real cost was never a good idea.
Next-gen they will try to go break-even from the beginning..
Let's pray that their nerd side will win

 

[AlphaWolf]

If I were a MS and Sony CEO looking down to this chart i would probably think that selling a console under their real cost was never a good idea.
Next-gen they will try to go break-even from the beginning..
Let's pray that their nerd side will win

If I were a Sony or MS CEO looking at this chart, I'd have a much better idea where those numbers actually come from, because all I really know is that it's not all consoles.

 

[MfA]

when they almost definitely will be loosing out when it comes to the online infrastructure?

Why is this supposed to be so hard?

Implementation wise it's all trivial ... and if design is really so hard, well ... just copy XBOX and take it from there.

 

[MarkoIt]

I think the main problem with selling a console under the break even is what will the competitor do?
If MS bring out a slightly updated hardware and sony bring out a 12 SPU CELL with monster GPU that produces ports of games that outshine the MS hardware then surely that's were most gamers will flock to. I know I would, I would drop MS like a brick.
It wouldn't take long for the internet facts to spread onto the street that the sony versions are far better performing than the MS versions. Look at call of duty for the wii.

But still: 80 millions Wii were sold against 50 mil Xbox360 and 45 mil PS3. Wii sold almost the same as the other two system combined, and generating ten times the profits on the hardware. And also PS2 was the slower system.. and also Nintendo DS.
The raw power doesn't move much hardware, but i think it moves more software.And i don't think that a 600$ PS4 could compete with a 300$ Xbox720..

 

[NRP]

Raw power is great Koolaid for fanboys, but I think next time that isn't going to a differentiator in and of itself. Everyone should be able to offer a system that is powerful enough. The bigger issue is development costs. The platform holders are going to have to do all they can to make developing content as easy and as cheap as possible.

 

[jeff_rigby]

From the article Shifty cites:

There are no plans to reduce the die size of the PS3 beyond the current 45nm. It's possible that they are waiting for 22/20nm and will skip the 32/28nm generation. I'd read that reducing from 45nm to 32nm required a design change for the external pin connections and Sony is probably waiting for 22/20nm to make the change practical. With a Cell BE redesign, Shifty could be correct and a couple more SPE elements or dedicated media hardware codecs could be in the new design. Sony uses the Cell BE and RSX for 4K video editing, what design change could make the PS3 hardware better for that job also.

Smaller die size is being driven by portables for it's higher efficiency.

http://www.thinq.co.uk/2011/1/18/arm-announces-14nm-deal-ibm/

That's where IBM, which also designs its own processors, comes in: extending a collaborative research and development agreement which was already in place between the two companies, this most recent deal will see IBM help ARM move beyond the 40nm, 32nm, and 28nm process sizes it currently uses right the way down to a 14nm process size - producing chips that are cheaper, faster, and generally better than anything currently available from ARM's many licensees.

With processes being developed to make silicon more efficient proceeding at a RAPID pace, Sony is probably waiting for 22/20nm to make a next generation Cell/PS3. This also applies to memory and at a smaller die size PC style cheaper Ram might be fast enough to use in the PS3 to replace XDR ram. A redesign of the PS3 using 20nm could be fanless, have more ram and sell for less.

Again from the article:

Hiroshige Goto says SCEI suspended PS4 development. They were working on a PowerPC based system at IBM Rochester after the Larrabee fall out, then shelved it. They are betting the farm on PSP2 as they expect handhelds to displace consoles.

Plans are to upgrade the OS Software and features of the PS3 to make it last longer For instance the PS3 can display 4K, that can be enabled with a software upgrade. 2012 should have 4K res sets as well as 4K & 1080P 3-D blu-ray players. That would have the PS3 still able to match CE equipment standards and that will be the end of the PS3's ability to keep up with the CE media advances. The PS3 will be getting a webkit browser and upgrades to the PS3 OS to enable a webkit port and to allow porting of applications and games to the PS3 via PS Suite from the NGP (windows support).

With the shelving (not canceling) of the PS4 the rumors of a PS3.5 have more weight. The cross platform push by Sony would have game developers encouraged to use openGL calls rather than lower level direct calls. IF that incurs much overhead and can't be overcome with software optimization a slightly more powerful PS3 that can display games easily using openGL at 720P and possibly 1080P might be considered. Current PS3s could still play the same games at a lower resolution. IF the distributed processing for the PS3 rumors are true then an older PS3 could perform at the same level as a PS3.5 given other Sony products with cell processor are on the same network.

The patents published would support at least the above was being considered and I would guess Sony is considering multiple methods to not develop another "lossy" game platform. What's needed to satisfy AAA developers and gamers, just 265 meg more memory and openGL for ease in porting and writing games for the PS3. The latter requiring more "bandwidth" as Shifty said and adding a couple of SPEs to the cell or something similar could accomplish that.

Sony employees have stated that they would not provide an upgrade for the PS3 that would cause the older consoles to become obsolete. Adding more memory to a newer PS3 would just make it slightly faster than an older PS3 that could use virtual memory to do the same. Adding two new SPEs would make the newer potentially faster but would still allow the same gameplay at a lower resolution.