Sony's NeoGeo Pocket's (PSP2/Vita) business/non technical ramifications talk

[Teasy]

I take your point that smart phone sales will have gone up for Christmas and those people will all be downloading apps when they start up their new phone. However I can't see long time smart phone owners getting lots of smart phone games for Christmas. Where as Christmas is just a time for buying games, or being given games, for your dedicated games system.

I can easily believe that 10 times as many apps may have been downloaded in comparison to games bought on 3DS/DS/PSP. But first of all over 80% of all app downloads on Android and IOS in 2011 were free, secondly even the ones they paid for would have been 20-30 times less expensive than 3DS/DS/PSP games.

Like I said I'd like to see the same stats at the end of the year.

 

[wco81]

But first of all over 80% of all app downloads on Android and IOS in 2011 were free, secondly even the ones they paid for would have been 20-30 times less expensive than 3DS/DS/PSP games.

And?

That's why they're popular and a lot of people who might have bought dedicated gaming devices and games are downloading those free and cheap games, which is where they could be negatively impacting the handheld business.

Yes the developers and publishers of console games may not be able to work under this business model. But apparently enough developers and publishers are developing mobile games and continue to do it.

Whether reality or perception, it seems more developers see opportunity to make money on mobile games than in dedicated handheld systems. They're getting VC funding too.

Contrast that to the poor 3rd-party games support for the PSP and DS.

The $40 (or more expensive) game comes with licensing fees, manufacturing and distribution costs and margins for retail and wholesale middlemen.

Rockstar sells the mobile version of GTA3 for $5? Of course that's a older game with most of the development costs well paid for already. But don't be surprised if console games regularly start to port to mobile much sooner after release, unless there's some special exclusivity arrangements like MS paying Rockstar for simultaneous release and exclusive DLC.

 

[Teasy]

You were talking about smart phone gaming revenue being higher then dedicated games systems over Christmas based on 10 times as many apps being downloaded. I was just saying that just because app downloads were so much higher than dedicated game sales that doesn't mean revenue was higher. Because 80% of those app downloads would have been free and the rest were far cheaper than games on a dedicated games platform.

By the way calling 3DS/PSP/DS third party support poor while lauding smart phone gaming is quite ironic. Also developers are seeing the opportunity to make money on smart phones in addition to dedicated games systems, not instead of.

IMO the whole "smart phones are killing dedicated handheld gaming" is a fantasy.

 

[wco81]

Nobody said kill.

There will always be a market for Mario games.

But it's going to be a niche compared to the much higher sales of mobile devices. More hours will be spent playing mobile games than handheld games. Maybe even console games, as the volume of smart phones alone will pass PC sales in the near future.

 

[dobwal]

Second week sales:
3DS: 482,200
PSP: 101,121
PSV: 72,479
uhhhh. Really wanted Vita to succeed. That number is horrible.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=457007

Given that the PSV numbers over the last two weeks equal 90% of the initial shipment, I'd hardly say 70K is a horrible number in terms of demand but probably the reality of a limited supply.

 

[Entropy]

Which is why those numbers mean nothing within the context of the gaming market in comparison to the sales of real gaming platforms and why its a fantasy to claim the dedicated gaming market is shrinking because of phone sales.

With all due respect Teasy, when you start using phrases like "real gaming platforms", and "it's a fantasy", you simply declare yourself as deeply emotionally involved in the issue.
Nothing wrong with that, but it makes discussion difficult and/or pointless. None of us know the future now, and once it's history, we can all discuss why it played out the way it did. For a discussion today to have any value it needs to bring up plausible points, and try to make some kind of reasonable weighing of those points. Always remembering that we're dealing with extrapolation which is never an exact science, and which always misses the mark when there are disruptive trends. Intelligent speculation is the best we can aspire to.

 

[Arwin]

Nobody said kill.

There will always be a market for Mario games.

But it's going to be a niche compared to the much higher sales of mobile devices. More hours will be spent playing mobile games than handheld games. Maybe even console games, as the volume of smart phones alone will pass PC sales in the near future.

The question, as always, will remain how relevant that is. How many people who would have played Mario, are now playing something else? I know a lot of people who play an occasional iPhone game, that never used to play a handheld console before. I know a lot of people who have been playing little games on their phone since the very first time a phone came with any sort of game, which is a long time ago.

I don't know anyone who played on a handheld console that now only plays on Pads or Phones, personally. How many people trust their kids with their 500+ Euro iPads or give them one of their own, rather than a sturdy, 129 euro Nintendo or 99 euro PSP?

In that respect, I think that Nintendo are actually relatively safe. Playstation is in a different spot. A big part of their success in the past has stemmed from being a good multi-media device as well as having some great games. Where the PSP has failed in the past, is offering the controls that allow it to benefit from bringing a lot of the gameplay from the consoles to the handheld experience. The controls have been decent, but not good enough.

Now, however, Vita does not seem to have this handicap. The controls are quite simply the best and most versatile that any handheld has ever had, by a fair margin. It can play almost anything that appears from smartphones to HD consoles, from touch and tilt to dual analog first person shooting. It has trophies, Live-style cross game chat and so on. There is ample room for it to be the best gaming device ever. As far as I am concerned, the biggest question is whether Sony will allow it to be, by giving it the best software line-up.

If you ask me, it has a good shot. When we look back at the success of the console, I think there will have been some key goals that will or will not have been attained, that determined its success. It could be as simple as basically being the first platform that can do a credible first person shooter. Which could mean it can fail in Japan, but appeal to the 360's hardcore audience, having teenagers playing Modern Warfare Vita in the schoolyards.

 

[wco81]

Isn't the 3DS selling better in Japan than the US?

If the same pattern occurs for the Vita, it can't afford to fail in Japan.

I don't know the smart phone penetration or growth rates in Japan compared to the US but it wouldn't be surprising if the smart phone competition is even greater in the US and Europe than it is in Japan.

 

[senas8]

Well I just got my Vita imported.. Very impressed with the oled screen. Even learned a lil japanese. Since you can only use the Japan PSN store for now.

 

[ban25]

If you ask me, it has a good shot. When we look back at the success of the console, I think there will have been some key goals that will or will not have been attained, that determined its success. It could be as simple as basically being the first platform that can do a credible first person shooter. Which could mean it can fail in Japan, but appeal to the 360's hardcore audience, having teenagers playing Modern Warfare Vita in the schoolyards.

I'd distill the Vita's handicaps down to this:

- Form Factor: It's too big to be pocketable and it's not a tablet.
- Software: It's exclusively a games platform, other functionality can't compete with tablets and phones.
- Cost: It's relatively expensive given the above, especially when you factor in memory costs.

If it doesn't sell sufficiently well, it's going to be very difficult to garner the attention of publishers. The Vita market may well end up too small to support the kind of "near home console" AAA titles it is capable of delivering. That would leave it mostly with smaller iOS/Android ports and whatever Sony publishes.

Not to say I won't buy one... It's clearly a handheld for core gamers, maybe the last one ever.

 

[JB9861]

- Software: It's exclusively a games platform, other functionality can't compete with tablets and phones.


Not to say I won't buy one... It's clearly a handheld for core gamers, maybe the last one ever.

Maybe the last from Sony. And if they didn't have the foresight to know that I'd need some productivity apps in between my CoD sessions then good riddance!

 

[jonabbey]

Maybe the last from Sony. And if they didn't have the foresight to know that I'd need some productivity apps in between my CoD sessions then good riddance!

Yeah, one level it's kind of surprising that they didn't give it the ability to run Android software, but that's tail lights they'd always have to be chasing as new versions come out.

Of course, given the console business model of getting a significant cut of all games sold, they'd need to be able to prevent users from side loading Android games that didn't give Sony its cut, or would have to do like on the PS3 and prevent the open operating system environment from accessing the gaming hardware.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

 

[ban25]

http://andriasang.com/comzjp/yamana_consumer_market/

The Vita launch's launch was shaky, continued Yamana. The 3DS also had problems, but with the Vita, he does not feel the need for the system. "If you were going to buy a Vita, wouldn't an iPhone be better?"

 

[Shifty Geezer]

"If you were going to buy a Vita, wouldn't an iPhone be better?"

No, because if you were going to buy a Vita, you were going to buy it because it has dual sticks and a rear touchpad and sony's console games. There's no alternative for that, but likewise there aren't many people that particularly want that IMO.

 

[Arwin]

No, because if you were going to buy a Vita, you were going to buy it because it has dual sticks and a rear touchpad and sony's console games. There's no alternative for that, but likewise there aren't many people that particularly want that IMO.

Maybe not, but the Vita may well be the first credible system for portable FPS gaming, all the way up to including cross game party-chat, etc. That's just one facet of gaming on the Vita (can't wait too see how LBP and Rayman Origins end up looking, or how well FIFA plays, or a decent racer) but it is a big genre.

 

[RobertR1]

Can someone answer these questions for me:

1. Is the Vita fully intergrated into the PS Suite?
2. Can all PS Suite apps work in Vita and vice versa?
3. Is PS Suite the base OS for all Sony Ericson phones?
4. Can Sony mobile users fully interact with Vita owners?

 

[Bigduo209]

Can someone answer these questions for me:

1. Is the Vita fully integrated into the PS Suite?
2. Can all PS Suite apps work in Vita and vice versa?
3. Is PS Suite the base OS for all Sony Ericson phones?
4. Can Sony mobile users fully interact with Vita owners?

3and 4 I don't know about, but I think 1 and 2 will determine the Vita's chances for success. The Vita doesn't have to be smartphone, but have a fair number of apps/options that caused the smartphone to thrive like it has.

Basically giving users the options of smartphones and tablets without actually having one.

The 4 biggest obstacles to this:
- Sony actually following through with the PS Suite.

- How open, inviting, and easy the program is to app developers.

-App developers who actually want to develop apps for the device.

- How Sony any splits the profit made.

 

[Mendel]

As I already have a Playstation network Plus subscription for my ps3, will I get benefits if I purchase Vita... as in will there be ps+ software releases (freebies) for Vita without paying extra over my ps3 + subscription? Will the downloadable Minis, PSP games and Playstation 1 games work with Vita?

 

[Arwin]

Can someone answer these questions for me:

1. Is the Vita fully intergrated into the PS Suite?
2. Can all PS Suite apps work in Vita and vice versa?
3. Is PS Suite the base OS for all Sony Ericson phones?
4. Can Sony mobile users fully interact with Vita owners?

PS Suite isn't an OS, but a Framework. It can run on any OS, just like, say, Mono or .NET Framework, or JavaScript. I think it is partly based on Mono if I remember correctly. Therefore
1) PS Suite framework runs on Vita, which is all that's needed.
2) Vita supports all input methods covered by PS Suite and is currently probably the most powerful hardware too, so it should have no problem. All devices that run PS Suite, which is currently supported on Android devices, need to meet a minimum hardware standard and input methods, so yes, basically all devices that support PS Suite should support all applications created for it.
3) So no. But Sony Ericsson phones that have sufficient hardware and run Android should all be able to run the PS Suite framework.
4) I don't know what the networking options are in PS Suite, can't remember having heard about that.

@Mendel: it depends. I think Minis and PSP titles work, but for the Playstation 1 titles I'm not sure yet what Sony is doing. The Minis were already running on a framework that is probably ported / supported on Vita, but the Playstation 1 titles I think are being reworked to run on PS Suite. This means that the version for Vita / PS Suite is different from the ones people currently have bought for Playstation 3, which likely means that the DRM code will be different. I don't know if and/or how Sony will solve that.

And while I'm at it:

The 4 biggest obstacles to this:
- Sony actually following through with the PS Suite.
- How open, inviting, and easy the program is to app developers.
-App developers who actually want to develop apps for the device.
- How Sony any splits the profit made.

1. PS Suite is out there, but yes, they will have to keep at it, and make sure as many Android running phones and perhaps also Tablets as possible (with the right hardware) have access to PS Suite.
2. This looks to be ok - you can use C# in Visual Studio, there's a proper virtual device etc. I also understand that these should be publicly and freely available, though I don't know when.
3. Yes, this is will be interesting. This is another area where Sony has their work cut out.
4. I'm not too worried about this one, as this is one of the few areas where Sony seems to generally know what it is doing.

 

[patsu]

http://andriasang.com/comzjp/yamana_consumer_market/

"If you were going to buy a Vita, wouldn't an iPhone be better?"

... probably because:
(i) Vita costs about the same or more than a subsidized or old iPhone, and
(ii) User experience + software + buzz is same-old, or lacking ?

From wallet-share perspective, the average consumers may prefer to upgrade their phone instead of buying a separate device for gaming. They can be entertained by cheap but addictive mini-games, watch videos and surf on iOS/Android (like what I'm doing right now ! ^_^).

Until Sony can demonstrate (ii), they can't justify (i) beyond the core gaming group. They can try to avoid comparison by positioning Vita or rather the Playstation experience and business carefully. Either completely opposite from iOS/Android (like what 3DS has done), or "ride on" Android in the short term. They will need their own twist of the Android platform story though.

I wonder what Phil Harrison would do if he's with Sony. his Game 3.0 presentation, and the initial "wasteful" investments in huge PS3 games.