NPD December 2010

I believe this is the same Patcher that predicted the XBox 360 outsold the PS3 2 to 1 in December.

The software issue has been discussed here before. There is far more PS3 Move software available than Kinect so most Kinect software purchases are going to be lumped into far fewer games. We also know that a ton of Move titles are on PSN or are updates to current games available on PSN and software downloads aren't counted.

That's not quite true, and is entirely misleading. There is a lot of Move-enabled titles. Which people may or may not have bought because of Move. Move required titles however seem to be quite few, or at least there's no buzz and thus I don't know about them. So there is absolutely no way to know how many sales were due to Move and how many sales there would have been if Move had never launched. Move's impact with such titles will be far less than titles that are Move only.

In other words, Move owners probably own a lot of Move enabled titles. But turn that around and if Move had never launched and those owners thus did not own Move, how many of those owners would still own those games. That is an unknown quantity and thus cannot be used for discussion. Or to put it another way, many people may have bought Move because of the software rather than buying software because of Move.

Thus it's far better to focus on Move required titles as you then know that every single title sold is a title bought because of the controller and not the other way around. And that's where the Move completely fails currently. It doesn't appear to be moving software and thus generating additional revenue nearly as much as you would hope.

He's not counting people that already own a PS3 but bought the Move to play games they already own.

That is irrelevant to that article and actually supports his point to an extent. People buying Move to play games they already own, rather than buying games to use their new peripheral.

And when you start to consider the ramifications of that it makes PS Move's showing in the US even more lackluster. PS Move had there been a focused direction on Sony's part should have been able to attack consumer from 2 points.

1) Existing owners looking to enhance games they own or games they already plan on buying. IE - the group that buys Move because of the games they already own or plan on playing.
2) New owners looking for a different/move casual experience. IE - the group that buys software solely due to Move.

And yes, I realize there may be some overlap between the two.

The first part should already gain you rapid adoption but won't bring as much additional revenue (over and above hardware Move sales) as the second group who you know will be buying new software.

PS Move has done relatively well with the first group, but hasn't done well with the second group. That second group again being the one Pachter is focusing on. As that second group is the one that has the potential to bring Sony the most money.

Kinect was only targeting the second group for Holiday 2010. Razor sharp focus. Clear and coherent marketing. New owners and casuals targetted, core users put off until the next year.

And thus far, if we are to compare the two, Kinect is doing far better both in Hardware and Software. In the two months there have been head to head sales Kinect has handily outsold PS Move. From a software sales POV, it's even more in Kinects favor, although there's no way to know exactly how much.

With Kinect you know that 1 Kinect = 1 household potentially buying software.

With Move the picture gets cloudy. 1 console Bundle = 1 household that's easy. And 1 starter pack probably equals 1 household. With the stand alone Move however, how many are being bought to pair up with an existing PS Eye to equal 1 household? In the US probably not that many. In Europe probably a fair bit more. So in the US (and thus NPD) at least it can be argued that most of the stand alone Move's are likely to be paired up with with another Move thus not greatly increasing the number of households buying software. He even states he didn't subscribe to peripheral data, and thus implies why he doesn't give Move data, only console bundle data which he should have.

Which again goes to support Pachter's analysis. While that article is certainly a bit sensationalist focusing on the numbers such as the 13:1 comparison of top two Kinect titles to top two Move-required titles, the message is valid.

There are more Kinect enabled households in the US than there are Move enabled households in the US. That already is going to mean that Kinect software purchases should outpace Move (required or added on) software purchases. Add in the case that many people may be buying Move in order to play existing games or games they were already planning to buy even if Move had not been released, and new software purchases due to the accessory moves more in Kinects favor where all software purchases are due to the accessory and software must be purchased in order to use it (above and beyond the included title).

Is it wise for Sony to release free Move software so there's no BIG hit in the top ten? Is it wise that they may be selling a larger percentage of peripherals to existing customers instead of bundles to new customers? These are interesting questions. What isn't interesting is what Patcher speculates, especially because he's usually wrong. What isn't interesting is having to pretend that the number of Move peripherals sold is insignificant.

In this case, he isn't necessarily wrong. His 13:1, sensationalist as it is is absolutely correct with regards to the top two software titles on each platform where every single purchase was due to the controller. His bundle numbers should also be correct, as IIRC, the hardware console numbers if you purchased the report from NPD should feature SKU breakdowns. Thus he doesn't need the peripheral report to know how many bundles were purchased. Especially since he isn't even speculating on the number of Move peripherals sold in that article, only on the number of Move bundles. Hence his disclaimer that he didn't subscribe to the peripheral data and thus cannot give numbers for the Move stand alone units and starter packs.

It's simply an unknown and it's unfortunate the console war gets in the way around here.

Sure, that does unfortunately happen quite often on both sides. But it doesn't preclude proper analysis of even a bit of a sensationalist piece such as the one linked.

While it's probably not true that Kinect related software purchases outnumber PS Move related software purchases 13:1, there is certainly a good chance that it's somewhere between 2:1 and 13:1. It's only a question of how much more software is selling due to Kinect versus sold due to Move. And that's not something anyone will ever know since there is absolutely no way to know how many Move-enabled (not Move required) software would have sold if Move had never been released.

Regards,
SB
 
You're so wrong about it. 3D is big deal and Sony is really smart for pushing it hard.

TV manufacturer's with a vested interest in 3D certainly think it's a big deal. And while that may be true...eventually, consumers at large are rejecting the idea of 3D in the home with current offerings. Which makes the current level of 3D rather a small deal. :)

Really? Many games sell better on PS3 than on Xbox 360 [especially EA's].

In some countries in Europe and in Japan, but certainly not in the US. And since this is an NPD thread...

You're wrong. GT 5 sold only slightly worse [10%] than GT 4 in first two months in lower userbase with bigger competition [NFS, AC, BO] and 3 consoles on market not two. And Racing games are on decline in US for some years now. GT series always were a slow burners - GT 4 sold 1.1m in first to months in US and end up selling 3m in NA.

Uh... Huh? He stated it didn't do as well in the US. You claim he's wrong and then go on to provide numbers showing that he's right? :)

Perhaps clear up your wording a bit. I "think" you might be trying to claim his stance that Sony is losing confidence in the brand is wrong, but I'm not entirely sure. As, your wording pretty strongly makes it seem like you think he's wrong that GT5 is selling less than GT4.

Regards,
SB
 
You think COD8 will sell more with move support? I'm skeptical.

I took his comment to mean that he expects that people would buy Moves to use with those games if they featured Move support. Of course, if the title wouldn't sell more with Move support (I am also skeptical about that) what's the incentive for the developer to code in that support?
 
Am I the only one that is worried for Sony in the US market?

1) PS3 gets outsold easily for both November and December by both Wii and the 360 (this is the time of the year where it really matters).

2) PS3 Move failing to get any kind of market share and only a little bit of the existing hardcore market (not most or not all, not even half of the hardcore adopting move here). This is a very bad sign.

Move software sales being so poor that they are almost useless to sell.
So, Wii ports are unlikely to sell to this crowd so that is out as well.

3) 3D-TV which the PS3 is all about is not selling at all and is a complete bust and will be for a long, long time and the PS3 is doing nothing here and nobody cares about this other than a few nerds on Beyond3D and maybe GAF.

4) PSP2 is launching at a time in which game only devices (beyond the DS) are not selling well and Sony already failed here before and again nobody but some people here and GAF really care. Piracy in the states has really killed it badly and it takes Sony's eyes off focusing on the PS3 exclusively. You can't just port from the PS2 here anymore. So now you have to get developers on board for this and piracy has already destroyed the PSP and is on the PS3. Seems like they are taking their eyes of the ball and have too many things to focus on (PS3 piracy, PSP2, PSMove, PS3), that is a lot.

5) PS3 piracy and losing control over the platform and most games are not that big even if they are on blu-ray. How is Sony going to get third parties to continue to stick with them here? The more noise Sony makes about this, the more they advertise piracy.

6) Blu-ray players are dropping in price and rising in features so there isn't that need anymore to buy a PS3 as their once was. By the end of 2011 the prices will be really cheap for a player for your HDTV and it will be state of the art features for a very low price that even the PS3 can't match.

7) At least in the USA, the PlayStation brand does not mean what it used to and it is becoming more tarnished as time goes by. Consumers are simply not buying the PlayStation products like they used to and this trend seems to be continuing. Even GT5 did not sell like previous copies did in the USA and Japan and that to me is a sign of a lack of confidence in Sony and the brand. How long until this starts spreading to other countries outside the USA.



good post... I would say they are just holding on to be able to attempt a comeback next gen, but all hopes are dashed of having what I'm sure they would classify as a "successful" generation. (regardless of the almost laughable PR statements)

I am certain they can not wait for the next gen reboot. Seeing how they are still fumbling all over themselves, for their sake I sure hope it's a few more years off. They are getting their lunch handed to them by a much more consistent and solid approach on every front atm. RE: NPD
 
Before I respond, and for the sake of clarity:

!st - This is an NPD thread, so you're considering US only.

2nd - For a proper comparison you should be talking about individual installations, whether they contain one controller or multiples. It doesn't much matter when you are comparing future revenue potential whether Sony sells 4 Move controllers to one household versus 1 or 2.

Taking those points into consideration, you believe that there is a possibility that there are more Move installations out there than Kinect installations?

Do I think it's true? No. Is it possible? Based on the evidence, yes.
 
TV manufacturer's with a vested interest in 3D certainly think it's a big deal. And while that may be true...eventually, consumers at large are rejecting the idea of 3D in the home with current offerings. Which makes the current level of 3D rather a small deal.
For today, yes, but Sony's 3D push is not about today, but future. We know that in one year every new TV will be 3D enabled, its just certain and its certain that market will be growing rapidly this and next year.
And about push, they need to push it hard, because there wont be content otherwise, it just wont happen by itself.

In some countries in Europe and in Japan, but certainly not in the US. And since this is an NPD thread...
But he was talking about 3rd party studios willing to abandon PS3 - its just ridiculous, and cant be considered only by US market, even by it its stupid, because 35-40% share market its still extremely relevant.

Uh... Huh? He stated it didn't do as well in the US. You claim he's wrong and then go on to provide numbers showing that he's right?

Perhaps clear up your wording a bit. I "think" you might be trying to claim his stance that Sony is losing confidence in the brand is wrong, but I'm not entirely sure. As, your wording pretty strongly makes it seem like you think he's wrong that GT5 is selling less than GT4.
I agree it sold less, but read his explanation
"that to me is a sign of a lack of confidence in Sony and the brand."
Its just not true, that why i wrote it. Japan is not interested in racing games as before [we saw decline with prologue and GT 4 already] and US is in decline too, but there were other factors i mentioned.


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Which only creates a problem for Activision. It doesn't benefit them.
Thats the Sony's job to convince them.
 
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Not saying I necessarily agree with his points, but I don't understand why you are trying to frame an argument around Kinect's success/failure to sell to the hardcore.

I'm saying that they're not realistic goals, and I'm using a more successful peripheral to exemplify it.

Essentially:
a) What do we measure this effect of 'selling to the hardcore'? I think we don't have enough information to do so, even outside of the difficulty of defining 'hardcore'.
b) Saying 'not even half of the hardcore' is setting an enormously high bar that you wouldn't expect any peripheral to reach.


You're basically saying Move shouldn't be expected to do better at something it is trying to do than Kinect is doing when it's not trying.

Honestly, 'catering to the hardcore' is Sony giving lip-service and trying to control expectations. Sony wants the Wii crowd; it doesn't cost a lot to put in support for Move in their titles, and it makes them look good, like they're still focusing on their core fanbase. MS tries to do the same, but because the Kinect is what it is, people don't buy into their spiel as much. (However, see how quickly fans leap to believe 'they're upping the resolution!' rumors.)

Sony's Move-enabled lineup isn't bad, but their Move-focused lineup really is just more of the same.
 
Standalone sales doesn't tell you anything about who bought them.

Great! We agree, then. Why are you replying to me?

More than 15% of X360 owners own a kinect in the first 60 days of the product being available.
Actually, this is an NPD thread. Thanks to how garbage NPD is these days, we can't even say anything like that for sure. From Pachter's 'data' we have about 1.6 million kinects sold NPD in bundles. How many were sold standalone? For a userbase of, what, 24M LTD? 15% of that would be 3.6 million kinects. Did MS sell 2 million standalone Kinects in NPD in 2010? Seems like a pretty big leap to take when we don't have much corroborating information. It especially seems like a big leap to go and compare that to CODBLOPS numbers, which we do have (incidentally, 4.9M just on 360 in Nov).
 
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good post... I would say they are just holding on to be able to attempt a comeback next gen, but all hopes are dashed of having what I'm sure they would classify as a "successful" generation. (regardless of the almost laughable PR statements)

I am certain they can not wait for the next gen reboot. Seeing how they are still fumbling all over themselves, for their sake I sure hope it's a few more years off. They are getting their lunch handed to them by a much more consistent and solid approach on every front atm. RE: NPD

You're kidding right? I know this is an NPD thread but PS3 is within a few million of the 360 and Sony has a lot of exclusives coming out.

Also, I'm sure there will be lot's of crossover support between PSP2 and PS3 given that they will have roughly equal amounts of power so both machines will benefit there.

I'm sure they're in no rush as hardware is moving along nicely.
 
The trend is turning against Sony at this time. MS has a runaway success with Kinect, increased sales in the US by almost 2 million units compared to 2009, and there's no immediate sign of slowing down.
On the other hand, no Sony exclusive has managed to significantly boost sales in the near past, so it's reasonable to assume that neither Uncharted 3 nor Killzone 3 nor any other titles would have any significant impact. Even GT5 seems to be unable to move any systems, and software sales remain disappointing too. Then there's the security breach that could lead to rampant piracy and a large loss of software sales, and reduced third party support.

These are all possibilities at this time, of course. But things aren't looking good for Sony in 2011 right now.
 
Great! We agree, then. Why are you replying to me?

You asked how many standalone kinects were sold, I assumed you thought it would tell you something about whether hardcore or casual users are buying them.

In case you forgot.

How many standalone Kinects were sold? That's why the peripheral data is important. Was it over a million this month?

So that's why I replied to you, but apparently you were asking for information you didn't want because it wasn't useful. I don't know.

The trend is turning against Sony at this time. MS has a runaway success with Kinect, increased sales in the US by almost 2 million units compared to 2009, and there's no immediate sign of slowing down.
On the other hand, no Sony exclusive has managed to significantly boost sales in the near past, so it's reasonable to assume that neither Uncharted 3 nor Killzone 3 nor any other titles would have any significant impact. Even GT5 seems to be unable to move any systems, and software sales remain disappointing too. Then there's the security breach that could lead to rampant piracy and a large loss of software sales, and reduced third party support.
Agree. Looking at the PS3 list for this year which game that will make someone who doesn't already own a PS3 buy one? The exclusive sequels are going to sell consoles when the earlier iterations didn't? I'm not suggesting PS3 is dead or anything but its not Killzone or Uncharted that Sony needs to move out of 3rd in NPD.
 
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Do I think it's true? No. Is it possible? Based on the evidence, yes.

It would take some very unusual consumer behavior to reconcile the data we do have with there being more Move setups in the wild than Kinect setups. It's fair to question whether the speculation is totally accurate in terms of specifics, but I don't see a likely scenario where the overall analysis is incorrect.
 
You asked how many standalone kinects were sold, I assumed you thought it would tell you something about whether hardcore or casual users are buying them.

Actually, no. I meant that without the peripheral data we have absolutely no clue about even how many Kinects (or Moves) were sold, to be able to start guessing at how the peripheral is encroaching the hardcore. We don't even know what percentage of 360 (PS3) owners own kinects (move) in the US!

With the data we'd still have an incomplete picture, as we have no idea what segment of the pre-existing population is buying into the peripheral, but we'd be able to at least set upper bounds (or 'best-case scenarios') for adoption by the hardcore.
 
The trend is turning against Sony at this time. MS has a runaway success with Kinect, increased sales in the US by almost 2 million units compared to 2009, and there's no immediate sign of slowing down.
On the other hand, no Sony exclusive has managed to significantly boost sales in the near past, so it's reasonable to assume that neither Uncharted 3 nor Killzone 3 nor any other titles would have any significant impact. Even GT5 seems to be unable to move any systems, and software sales remain disappointing too. Then there's the security breach that could lead to rampant piracy and a large loss of software sales, and reduced third party support.

These are all possibilities at this time, of course. But things aren't looking good for Sony in 2011 right now.

Well in terms of software sales they still look in a strong position. 360-only owners are kind of stuff with multiplatform titles for the first half of this year, I can't think of any big 360 exclusives coming out.

The key for Sony will be marketing the games right. They can still bring in more gamers with LBP2 as I don't think the first one was advertised terribly well to begin with. For KZ3 they should focus on the tech imo and show in-game graphics in adverts. All they would need is parity with the 360 in the States to catch up and overtake overall - they've already closed the gap quite a bit since launch with a more expensive machine.

As for piracy, well the 360 is quite open but probably 5% of owners I know have had their 360's flashed. I wonder how many mainstream gamers even know about the PS3 piracy issue.
 
Actually, no. I meant that without the peripheral data we have absolutely no clue about even how many Kinects (or Moves) were sold, to be able to start guessing at how the peripheral is encroaching the hardcore. We don't even know what percentage of 360 (PS3) owners own kinects (move) in the US!

With the data we'd still have an incomplete picture, as we have no idea what segment of the pre-existing population is buying into the peripheral, but we'd be able to at least set upper bounds (or 'best-case scenarios') for adoption by the hardcore.

You can still do a pretty good estimate on Kinect. 8 million kinects sold in the 2 months, US is roughly 50% of the x360 market. So there are probably about 4 million kinects in the US, along with the 25.5 million consoles. You still can't say what segment they fall into, even with more accurate data, I'm sure lots of hardcore gamers bought kinect simply for the geek factor (I myself was gifted one, although I'm not sure what category I fall into, I own about 30 games, but I don't play the shooters much at all).

Move is a tougher number, the only report from Sony was 4.1 million shipped about a month ago.
 
Well in terms of software sales they still look in a strong position. 360-only owners are kind of stuff with multiplatform titles for the first half of this year, I can't think of any big 360 exclusives coming out.

The key for Sony will be marketing the games right. They can still bring in more gamers with LBP2 as I don't think the first one was advertised terribly well to begin with. For KZ3 they should focus on the tech imo and show in-game graphics in adverts. All they would need is parity with the 360 in the States to catch up and overtake overall - they've already closed the gap quite a bit since launch with a more expensive machine.

You could have posted this same post, with the names of the games changed each of the last few years at this time and each time by the end of the year none of it would have made a difference. Why will this year be different?
 
You could have posted this same post, with the names of the games changed each of the last few years at this time and each time by the end of the year none of it would have made a difference. Why will this year be different?

Not with any of the titles he mentioned, and not that I'm expecting any title on PS3 to induce a massive take off of the console hardware this late in it's life, but for arguments sake...

It's possible if Sony can successfully market a "killer" PS Move game or application. Even that may not be enough, however. Buzz for Kinect currently is almost overwhelming. And Move may potentially be stuck as the "other" controller that launched along with Kinect in consumers eyes.

It's still early yet, however, so Kinect may falter and Sony may figure out a way to make Move attractive to non-core users. IMO, that's going to require a compelling Move only game (IE - no support for standard controller). And likely more than one so casuals won't think it's a flash in the pan.

That's why focusing on the casuals earlier is better than focusing on the casuals later, IMO. With a launch you can throw out a large launch library which makes the concept far more compelling for someone new to the platform who may only be interested in casual games.

Anyway, I'm digressing. I think, that a compelling Move casual "relaunch" with targetted marketing may be able to provide a spike in monthly sales. I don't think any core targetted title will be able to this late in the consoles life.

The only other things that may move a lot of hardware would be potentially easy pirating, and a surprise price cut to 149 USD. :p One of those is a bit more likely than the other. :)

Regards,
SB
 
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