WinMo has been officially abandoned and deprecated by both MS and handset makers long before 2011. Everything in late 2010/early 2011 WM sales was basically stock emptying.
Fine, but it is still proof of a market transition. MS would not deprecate it if they could keep selling it as WP grew. They never stopped selling win98 when XP came out, or XP when Vista came out, etc.
And that's because....? Regurgitating your claims doesn't make them more true.
I didn't regurgitate anything in that quote. If you and others are saying that Nokia spoiled a cash cow, then you are unequivocally saying they could have kept selling their not-so-smartphones through time of transition. It's complete denial.
Whaaa...? Osborne effect, anyone?
There was never the type of hard announcement that in any way can be called an Osborne effect and affect results for Q1 2011.
And I think you have a lot backwards in your recollection. It was basically a Double Osborne, with both BB7 (earlier announcement, belated launch, no upgradeability for older hardware) and BB10 (well, same points but much worse). And before the end of May you had: March earnings call announcement, April: Tablet OS (based on QNX), Start of May: BB7 devices (and it was known from the beginning that 6.1 dev. couldn't be upgraded)
Show me a historical case of the Osborne effect that came from such a weak definition of future product announcement. There is no way that you can blame RIM's 1Q2011 results on this. By your definition the iPad mini should flop from speculation of the next model having a Retina display.
RIM's prevalence through enterprise also makes it even easier for them to coast because they have far higher costs in changing platforms than a typical consumer and are also much slower to do so. That they still stumbled shows how much consumer demand transitioned.
Astounding. You have a simple correlation between two (completely different, by your own admission) companies, no other supporting argument than "they both had a dead end OS" and think your point stands?
Buddy, it's FIVE operating systems. WinMo (doesn't matter whether it's due to customer choice or MS's perception of customer choice), RIM dying, Apple growing rapidly, and Android
rocketing up in 2010 (surpassing Symbian by year's end).
Aaand another strawman. Market share only shows your performance relative to others. (Which no one was debating here.) But it doesn't show how well your company itself is.
So what? A company can't control demand for an existing class of product. It can only control how well it does
relative to others in providing it. A few quarters ago Intel saw shipment declines despite kicking AMD's ass more than ever before.
The total smartphone market will go up and down depending on consumer sentiment/hype, seasonal variation, the economy, etc. The only way Nokia can change that is through a revolutionary product, which maybe 0.1% of CEOs are capable of initiating, and none could do in a few quarters.
1. Your claim is that Elop's memo notably changed consumer preference for Nokia. Agreed?
2. Nokia's marketshare, by definition, shows the percent of buyers who prefer Nokia. Agreed?
And yet you are completely unable to show any correlation between Elop's memo and quarterly marketshare loss. That is not a strawman. That is a gaping hole in your argument.
Your graphs show Nokia's shipped numbers, but we all know that manufacturers play tricks with these through inventory stuffing in one quarter versus the next. Nokia having 22% growth in smartphone revenue from 3Q2010 to 4Q2010 is unlikely given that Gartner shows their sales going from
29.5M units to only
32.6M units over the same timeframe.
That Q4 number in your graph is a mirage from an all-time peak of 100M smartphones sold that quarter and, IMO, Nokia trying to make FY2010 look as good as it could.
Take 1000 random smartphone buyers in Q1 2010, and you'll find 443 choose Nokia.
In Q2, 412.
In Q3, 366.
In Q4, 326.
Q1 2011, 274.
Q2 2011, 221.
There is no anomalous change in trajectory from the Q1 2011 memo. It was an accelerating decline that started before Elop even arrived.
C'mon, don't play stupid. You know which part of your quote I meant.
You're just being an ass now, and Xmas's response proves it. He was talking about Nokia not making phones in 2011. I was not "disproving" anything he said, I incorrectly assumed what his mysterious third option was, and he clarified it.