NVIDIA Kepler speculation thread

[Silent_Buddha]

Not the crown but they definitely had halo parts. Both the 5870 and 6970 qualify as they were up there with nVidia's best. We're talking about a hypothetical scenario where AMD is left battling nVidia's performance chip. That hasn't happened in a very long time.

While I don't think this will be the case, it would be similar to going all the way back to 2900/3870 days.

If we assume that GK104 is competitive with 79xx that would certainly force AMD to drastically cut prices of 7970. At this point we have both companies competing at a similar price point with their current top end cards. Neither company wins.

Then, if GK110 launches 6+ months after 79xx that will certainly hurt AMD until they launch their next halo card. But considering it's already 6+ months since the 79xx, how long will they have to hurt until the next AMD halo card?

Personally, I have a hard time believe that GK 104 will both be significantly smaller than 7970 AND being at a similar performance. And then followed up with a GK110 which is hypothetically 30-50% faster than 7970.

Not impossible certainly. But I'll believe it when I see it. Then again I have been surprised a few times in the past few years (Rv770 certainly caught me by surprise).

Either way, AMD's follow up to 79xx should only be a few months away at that point potentially minimizing any damage.

Regards,
SB

 

[CarstenS]

Like what? In case BOM for the two is quite close.

For how much would you account the possibly faster specced memory chips on the radeon? If we work from the assumption that Nvidia's not matching AMDs memory speeds this time.

 

[trinibwoy]

Common sense prevails?

http://semiaccurate.com/forums/showpost.php?p=149785&postcount=321

http://semiaccurate.com/forums/showpost.php?p=149788&postcount=323

This time around, Nvidia's games are going to make Wall Street look look like Ghandi. I am in shock.

That's more like it

 

[NathansFortune]

I don't get what the quote means? That Nvidia are going to be losing money on the GTX660/680?

 

[Kaotik]

I don't get what the quote means? That Nvidia are going to be losing money on the GTX660/680?

The way I read it, Charlie suggests nVidia will be pouring money to devs like there's no tomorrow, and in the process make sure they exploit every single advantage nV cards have, and abuse every aspect AMD hardware is weaker at, to make nVidia cards look good in them compared to competition

 

[rpg.314]

For how much would you account the possibly faster specced memory chips on the radeon? If we work from the assumption that Nvidia's not matching AMDs memory speeds this time.

I doubt it will be much, but of course they will be expensive. If nv hits >5GT/s, the cost difference/chip is likely to be marginal at best.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

The way I read it, Charlie suggests nVidia will be pouring money to devs like there's no tomorrow, and in the process make sure they exploit every single advantage nV cards have, and abuse every aspect AMD hardware is weaker at, to make nVidia cards look good in them compared to competition

Which is completely different to what has been happening for the past 10 years...

 

[trinibwoy]

I don't get what the quote means? That Nvidia are going to be losing money on the GTX660/680?

I'm not sure either. I read it as nVidia will be even more underhanded, greedy, abusive etc than usual. All bets are off as to what that means for Kepler's condition.

 

[Kaotik]

Which is completely different to what has been happening for the past 10 years...

Even though it has been happening, it can always go more extremes

Though as was suggested on another forum, it more likely means nVidias "games", not pc games, meaning they dug up more evil version of dirty playbook to pull every dirty trick in their sleeves and then some, on everything.

 

[Rangers]

Maybe I'm missing something but why is fighting for bragging rights at $300 with your biggest chip a good thing? If I understand correctly you guys are saying that its ok because GK104 may be the same size. Why does that matter? The last time AMD priced their top card that low it was faster than nVidia's second fastest - 4870 vs 260. Do we expect a repeat of that this round?

Huh? You do realize 6970 is priced like $330 vs $550 for GTX 580, and is more like an equal to GTX 570 in performance?

How is that any different than 4870 vs 260? How is "fighting for bragging rights with their biggest chip at $300" not exactly basically whats going on today with HD6970?

Wouldn't surprise me nor I think be a huge problem for AMD if 7970 ends up fighting Nvidia's 2nd place chip at $300. I mean the thing was only 20% faster than 580, there's almost no way Nvidia wasn't going to top it.

You seem to be vastly overrating 6970 performance for some reason.

Also, I find a few things funny, that so many threads on B3D tend to degenerate into everybody hoping AMD dies (Why? You want to pay more for Nvidia with no competition?), two, that now in this thread suddenly die size became important, whereas when some point out AMD's size advantages at other times, it's usually played as a non factor with "Nvidia is magically able to be teh more profitable with the big dice so it's no issue".

 

[Sxotty]

People might be afraid of it happening actually as opposed to hoping that one of them will disappear. I am much more worried about Nvidia disappearing since Intel must have AMD around.

 

[hatter]

On twitter

From Charlie's twitter thread:

More on this soon, there is a BIG secret in the Kepler line. It will take a long article though, so not RSN.

And in response to:

You've said on the forums at SA that the 7970 will be better in performance than the GK104 but what about the 580 to the GK104?

He said:

It is really nuanced. I am working on this now, all I can say is stay tuned.

 

[trinibwoy]

Huh? You do realize 6970 is priced like $330 vs $550 for GTX 580, and is more like an equal to GTX 570 in performance?

The 580 is only 15% faster than a 6970, which has a $370 MSRP btw.

You seem to be vastly overrating 6970 performance for some reason.

Nope you're underrating it.

Nvidia is magically able to be teh more profitable with the big dice.

What's so magical about stating facts? Is that not the case?

 

[Alexko]

The 580 is only 15% faster than a 6970, which has a $370 MSRP btw.

Newegg currently has one for $304.99 with Rebate + $7.87 Shipping, though. Tahiti has more memory, but is a bit smaller, albeit on a more expensive process. All in all, and even though I'm sure AMD would love to keep it closer to $500, it should remain quite profitable around $300~350.

 

[Rangers]

The 580 is only 15% faster than a 6970, which has a $370 MSRP btw.



Nope you're underrating it.



What's so magical about stating facts? Is that not the case?

So $370 MSRP (if even true) that streets for $330 is supposed to be a huge difference from $300? Why not just admit you were wrong?

Edit: checking newegg it's true there's one model for 325/300, but most are 349 before rebate. I'm willing to be generous and even concede a 350 price, I dont think that changes the debate much.

I'm underrating 6970's performance by stating it's less than 580 and more of a 570 competitor? Nope, fraid I'm exactly right actually.

What's magical is basically stating that die size is meaningless to cost, which is basically what you have tried to do in the past in a roundabout, obfuscating way. As I said, in this thread it's funny how die size became important to cost again all that sudden, now that it's presumed GK104 may have a tiny die or some type of die size advantage. Just funny that's all.

 

[trinibwoy]

So $370 MSRP (if even true) that streets for $330 is supposed to be a huge difference from $300? Why not just admit you were wrong?

You must be arguing with yourself. I stated that it's been a long time since AMD has had to fight nVidia's second tier chip with their largest. How is the fact the 6970 matches the 570 and competes with the 580 proving me wrong exactly? I don't even know what point you're making....

I'm underrating 6970's performance by stating it's less than 580 and more of a 570 competitor? Nope, fraid I'm exactly right actually.

We're discussing a possible Tahiti vs GK104 scenario. How is the current situation of Cayman vs GF110 representative? Care to explain that?

What's magical is basically stating that die size is meaningless to cost, which is basically what you have tried to do

You really should spend more time reading and less time reacting. I said nVidia's costs have nothing to do with AMD's profit potential so a die size comparison is useless. nVidia is willing and able to sell its larger dies at similar prices to AMD's smaller ones, they've done so for years now. i.e. die size and performance parity is certainly not a sign of fair weather for AMD.

Not sure how else to say it to make it clearer.

 

[Sunrise]

<deleted>

 

[iMacmatician]

For GK104? GK110? Something else?

 

[psolord]

Hey guys.

I've been thinking....could GK104 actually come with a 384bit bus, despite the 2GB framebuffer?

I could be wrong, but hasn't this already been done, with the GTX 550 Ti having 192bit bus and 1GB framebuffer?

 

[AnarchX]

The chip is quite small, and has 8 GDDR5 chips meaning a 256-bit bus/2GB standard

http://semiaccurate.com/2012/01/19/nvidia-kepler-vs-amd-gcn-has-a-clear-winner/

384-bit = 12 chips