Your assessment is kinda wrong, both in that Microsoft had a far better holiday then Sony or in terms of 2010.
Microsoft has only funded two exclusive titles for this holiday season: ODST and Forza 3. Both have been quite successful at more then 4 million units sold, and in the case of ODST it wasn't even such a high budget title, using a slightly modified Halo3 engine and a shortened production schedule.
On top of this, all the multiplatform blockbuster titles have been selling quite well on the 360, generally at a higher attach ratio compared to the PS3. License fees from these sales did not require any investment from Microsoft.
Edit: hmm, it seems I've mixed up Forza 2 and 3, the newer actually did not sell as well. But it still won't have such an effect on MS's revenues as they're based on the multiplatform titles...
The PS3 only had Uncharted 2 as an exclusive, which hasn't sold that well unfortunately. Multiplatform sales are also somewhat lower, because generally the PS3 ports are slightly inferior. Also the PS3 is probably making a much bigger loss per console then the more simpler X360.
We're still waiting for the NPD data, but it's safe to assume that revenue for MS is far, far bigger then for Sony, and they're more profitable, too.
Also, I believe that the general expectations about God of War 3 are quite unrealistic on these forums as well as on others. The game's extreme violence and hardcore gameplay are discouraging for the average user and the real sales potential is quite low.
Case in point, GOW1 has sold a little more then 3 million units and GOW 2 even less - on the PS2 with more then a 100 million user base. Why does anyone expect the third game to do significantly better on a far, far smaller user base, where other high quality exclusives have also failed to reach sales of common multiplatform titles? It might turn out to be a superb game but I can't see it moving as many units as MGS4, which has also lagged behind its precursors.
And the Final Fantasy franchise has been on a constant decline as well, not to mention the upcoming X360 port which is also going to seriously eat into the PS3 version's effect on sales.
Gran Turismo 5 is the only Sony exclusive that has good sales potential and the ability to become a system seller. It can actually become the biggest hit of the year, the only serious competitor to Reach, if it can maintain the appeal of the previous games in the franchise. But it's still going to have a lot of trouble selling 10 million units without a significant explosion of the PS3 userbase.
And Sony has already spent extreme amounts of money on developing or publishing exclusive games, almost all of which have failed to sell well or push the hardware, so I don't see them doing anything but scaling back on those efforts.
What else do they have for 2010? Naughty Dog is probably not big enough to release another title this year; Insomniac might have something; Heavy Rain isn't gonna be big... and all the rest of the big names are either multiplatform or MS exclusives. Sony had better have a lot of stuff ready for E3 2010...
As for Nintendo, one look at their financials makes any worries obsolete. They're in the best position and I can't see anything changing that, not even Natal.
Microsoft has only funded two exclusive titles for this holiday season: ODST and Forza 3. Both have been quite successful at more then 4 million units sold, and in the case of ODST it wasn't even such a high budget title, using a slightly modified Halo3 engine and a shortened production schedule.
On top of this, all the multiplatform blockbuster titles have been selling quite well on the 360, generally at a higher attach ratio compared to the PS3. License fees from these sales did not require any investment from Microsoft.
Edit: hmm, it seems I've mixed up Forza 2 and 3, the newer actually did not sell as well. But it still won't have such an effect on MS's revenues as they're based on the multiplatform titles...
The PS3 only had Uncharted 2 as an exclusive, which hasn't sold that well unfortunately. Multiplatform sales are also somewhat lower, because generally the PS3 ports are slightly inferior. Also the PS3 is probably making a much bigger loss per console then the more simpler X360.
We're still waiting for the NPD data, but it's safe to assume that revenue for MS is far, far bigger then for Sony, and they're more profitable, too.
Also, I believe that the general expectations about God of War 3 are quite unrealistic on these forums as well as on others. The game's extreme violence and hardcore gameplay are discouraging for the average user and the real sales potential is quite low.
Case in point, GOW1 has sold a little more then 3 million units and GOW 2 even less - on the PS2 with more then a 100 million user base. Why does anyone expect the third game to do significantly better on a far, far smaller user base, where other high quality exclusives have also failed to reach sales of common multiplatform titles? It might turn out to be a superb game but I can't see it moving as many units as MGS4, which has also lagged behind its precursors.
And the Final Fantasy franchise has been on a constant decline as well, not to mention the upcoming X360 port which is also going to seriously eat into the PS3 version's effect on sales.
Gran Turismo 5 is the only Sony exclusive that has good sales potential and the ability to become a system seller. It can actually become the biggest hit of the year, the only serious competitor to Reach, if it can maintain the appeal of the previous games in the franchise. But it's still going to have a lot of trouble selling 10 million units without a significant explosion of the PS3 userbase.
And Sony has already spent extreme amounts of money on developing or publishing exclusive games, almost all of which have failed to sell well or push the hardware, so I don't see them doing anything but scaling back on those efforts.
What else do they have for 2010? Naughty Dog is probably not big enough to release another title this year; Insomniac might have something; Heavy Rain isn't gonna be big... and all the rest of the big names are either multiplatform or MS exclusives. Sony had better have a lot of stuff ready for E3 2010...
As for Nintendo, one look at their financials makes any worries obsolete. They're in the best position and I can't see anything changing that, not even Natal.
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