Article : Only 30% of games even break even!

There are two issues with UE3 in that sense. One, it doesn't mesh well with all (or even most) projects right off the bat, and two when problems arise there is a protracted process of dealing with Epic to get support. The support teams at Epic are dedicated to this, however, so their being a game company has nothing to do with it. They emphasize support that reflects their internal project(s) at the time, as this is what they are generally focused on. But with an internal monolith engine at EA, no matter the improvements in support, you will still introduce an inherent support latency into the equation via needing to make a call or send an email to someone external to the direct team, bring said person up to speed on the problem, and expect that said person might have other projects he is supporting at any given time... thus reducing his focus/attention to the problem at hand.

Where it might (or might not) be better than Epic's own support situation, I am saying that the inherent negatives of said situation still exist, it's simply a matter of degrees.

Honestly, I'd rather not discuss UE3 too deeply. I just think that saying 'UE3 doesn't work, so others won't either' is a pitfall. I highly doubt it's true. Support problems exist everywhere; true enough. Support also often helps.

And again, I'm not saying: 'my way is necessarily better'. I'm questioning a) the notion that tech-wise, game development is so different from other disciplines in software development that lessons can't be shared b) why redesigning the same thing multiple times is beneficial. The answer to both of these is somewhat vague, and revolves around game developers being creative.



Not sure what you mean by architectural problem. If an engine is geared towards certain strengths, it is almost by nature going to be weaker in certain areas because those areas are not built around explicitly. If a game is focused on mechanics featuring said 'weaknesses,' well... then the engine is going to look a lot different at the end of the process than it did at the beginning anyway.

By architectural, I mean: can't the engine/framework/library's architecture take such things into account? Make some modules optional while others not? Make it relatively easy to modify, if modification is necessary (it always will be). Make it possible for these modifications to be merged into the trunk after development is done.
Designing a robust architecture that does this is far, far, far, far more difficult than it sounds, but again, not outside the realm of possibility.

I don't think you're crazy Obonicus, indeed I understand what you're going for. But I really feel you over-emphasize the gains that can be made from further centralization on engine work. We're talking about financial gains here, right? You're just approaching it too Fortune 500 IMO, viewing the IP and the tools as more valuable than the individuals. In fact it seems to me that your ideal has a model where the team members become devalued to commodity level, easily shifted from product to product, familiar with 'the tools,' and uniform in practices and standards. It's macro, but too macro. As has been pointed out here already, this is a creative medium. The studios/titles that shine do so because of their teams much moreso than do to any tools or technology they've been given access to. When you force these guys to conform to an externally imposed straightjacket approach, you are most likely going to lose them, and development times will either increase and/or product quality will suffer. A lot of the top guys on the top teams like approaching the problems on their own terms, feeling they are contributing to the greater dialog in the development community, and building tools around the needs of the in-house artists/programmers that they have personal relationships with.

This I already agreed is a problem, to ERP. It's the one thing that may actually be insurmountable.
I have my doubts, though. Because, well, there's a similar sentiment among the 'geek-power' crowd, this mystique that writing code is akin to doing magic. And it's not. It's just hard work. So I'm not sure product quality will suffer if things become more standardized, more methodical.

What I'm hoping for is a standardization of technology and greater focus on content. I do believe this is possible. I think there's a misguided focus on technology; game studios' main line of business is games, not tech.

We constantly hear stories about how studios are always one flop away from bankruptcy, and high-profile gaming is filled with stories of studios that just couldn't make it. The sentiment you hear repeated is: either you knock it out of the park, you may as well not swing at all. Over the years I've enjoyed games that were solid 7s, sometimes even 6s. Many of which didn't sell well either. Should studios be crushed because of one moderate failure? With HD costs, it seems like you can't target a niche audience anymore, unless you do it on portables (or sometimes weaker systems), or go for some low-tech HD stuff (see Disgaea 3). Are we better off that whole niche genres don't exist anymore for most intents and purposes?

If I can be perfectly frank, though HD is essentially the reason I switched from PCs to consoles, I think the move to HD may have been premature, at least as far as the publishers are concerned. But HD is here to stay, almost certainly, so I think budgets have to be scaled down somehow. Maybe I am misguided; maybe the tech expenses aren't quite so high, maybe all the cost is on the content itself. I have heard reports in this very thread, though, that engineering is as big as content these days. So maybe I'm not.

And it's not like not being able to roll your own engine would make game-making any less a labor of love.

Cookie cutter games shines through, whether the technology is up to par or not, and that's what I feel you'll get with a heavy top-down approach. Hell even EA themselves has recently said they've been micro-managing too much, at the expense of disaffecting some of the developers that made their acquired dev houses what they were pre-acquisition... to say nothing of what a Politburo-style technology 'efficiency' imposition would do.

But you can have cookie cutter games with very polished engines. Content is the key differentiator. It's unfair to assume that one engine would lead to all games being the same, because what defines what a game is is content. We know this well enough. I think Sturgeon's law applies no matter the degree of polish you're forced to apply.

This is an industry of fixed costs - the costs pre-release are primarily head count. If your title launch is delayed, as has been indicated already in this thread as a frequent effect of external sourcing, than more likely than not you have ended up losing more money supporting said fixed cost structure than you have on the gains you achieved on 'fast-tracking' engine development. To say nothing of the compounded effects from potentially missing a certain launch window that was viewed as previously advantageous...

Delays can also be the effect of in-house development. Again, I think you're looking at things through a very skewed, even Office Space-like perspective. Okay, so, say, Mass Effect was delayed. But so was Mercenaries 2. What does that say? Nothing. Delays are more likely due to poor planning than anything else.

Now, you're saying that you would like to see the wages increased and game prices raised. I love all the developers of the world, but those wage increases would start adding the millions to title expenses real quick, far far exceeding any hypothetical gains from even an utopian technology situation. When you're thinking game development... it's been said before but it really does apply... think Hollywood rather than Microsoft (OS/Office). You are going to do a lot more damage than good by moving teams that are creative not just on a story/gameplay level but on a technology level as well to a super-centralized structure such as exists in the enterprise software space. The industry being hit-driven, such as with Hollywood or other 'artistic' mediums, is not new.

I'm not talking about wage increases. Greater QoL doesn't mean more money. It means less crunch time, more sane hours, better job stability. I don't see why this couldn't be achieved with proper planning. I don't think game prices should be increased, either. I just think games should be cheaper to make, not more expensive.

Movies, like games, are hit-driven, true. But that doesn't mean that less ambitious films aren't released. They are, and many actually make profits. Film still has quite a bit of life in its niche genres and arthouse films. HD gaming, meanwhile, seems to be strictly for the 'blockbusters' -- all that other stuff targets other systems. And, er, I don't think that's a good thing. It doesn't mean some games can't strive to be blockbusters.
 
I have my doubts, though. Because, well, there's a similar sentiment among the 'geek-power' crowd, this mystique that writing code is akin to doing magic. And it's not. It's just hard work. So I'm not sure product quality will suffer if things become more standardized, more methodical.

What I'm hoping for is a standardization of technology and greater focus on content. I do believe this is possible. I think there's a misguided focus on technology; game studios' main line of business is games, not tech.

Game studios are made up of a number of different sorts of folk; some of them are technology people, and they're in this for the tech itself. I would argue that there is a greater assurance of diversity in the gaming market if teams themselves remain diverse in number, make-up, and passion of the individuals which comprise them. If one area of the classic team structure becomes marginalized, IMO it's a loss to the industry.

Consider this example: pretend Carmack was a part of the EA empire, and suddenly he was unable to pursue his engine technologies because they were considered 'redundant.' Is this a positive in your eyes? I use Carmack because you seemed to hold him in esteem earlier in the thread, but his example is perfect because the technology he is pursuing is so divergent from the norm right now.

But you can have cookie cutter games with very polished engines. Content is the key differentiator. It's unfair to assume that one engine would lead to all games being the same, because what defines what a game is is content. We know this well enough. I think Sturgeon's law applies no matter the degree of polish you're forced to apply.

When I was saying cookie-cutter, I wasn't referring to the engine similarity, I was referring to employees who are just 'doing a job' vs making a game... know what I mean? An environment where they are given a task to execute rather than where a homegrown idea is presented. Remember the classic model of the games industry is still that of independent developer seeking publishers for game ideas; it's been subsumed by greater nesting and acquisitions, but it's still out there. And in that sense, also like Hollywood.

I'm not talking about wage increases. Greater QoL doesn't mean more money. It means less crunch time, more sane hours, better job stability. I don't see why this couldn't be achieved with proper planning. I don't think game prices should be increased, either. I just think games should be cheaper to make, not more expensive.

That's like saying movies should be cheaper to make. Ok, they should be cheaper... now what? :)

Incidentally Insomniac is constantly winning "best place to work" awards and such if we're talking QoL in the broader sense, and that place would likely fall apart if they had external engineering foisted on them. Again just using an example of a place that I feel you have respect for and fits a lot of your "end goal" ideals, but would actually buckle and break under your proposed system.

Movies, like games, are hit-driven, true. But that doesn't mean that less ambitious films aren't released. They are, and many actually make profits. Film still has quite a bit of life in its niche genres and arthouse films. HD gaming, meanwhile, seems to be strictly for the 'blockbusters' -- all that other stuff targets other systems. And, er, I don't think that's a good thing. It doesn't mean some games can't strive to be blockbusters.

What niches existed before that you've seen disappear? I think that XBLA and PSN offer the perfect "art house" venue to keep going with the film analogues.
 
Game studios are made up of a number of different sorts of folk; some of them are technology people, and they're in this for the tech itself. I would argue that there is a greater assurance of diversity in the gaming market if teams themselves remain diverse in number, make-up, and passion of the individuals which comprise them. If one area of the classic team structure becomes marginalized, IMO it's a loss to the industry.

Possibly, but I think you're taking too romantic a view of things. I think the irreconcilable difference in our views is that you think the industry is fine (or okay), and I don't -- other than maybe from my geek inner-self (the part that likes tech for the sake of tech).

And... I had a response written up, but at this point I think we're just speculating heavily. I mean, sure, maybe under my ideas every developer I like would be depressed and working on accountancy software, or maybe, instead, every developer you like would have banded together and built the engine that finally delivers 4D (at reduced costs!). It all stems from the difference of views above, I think.
 
I think the arguments from both sides have been measured and reasonable. I would just like to add that the attempt at optimising the business of producing art is artfull in itself but not feasible. Being pretty ingnorant with this branch of the software industry I understand what obonicus is getting at (monolithisizing [sic] one engine or using as few as possible for coverage) and agree that it probably works in the case of EA (to a certain extent) and is being attempted to work at Capcom but the drive to create within different development groups makes this an impossibilty.

Devlopers consist of groups of people who want to create and I believe that if you restrict their options to do what got them in the business in the first place you might drain the talent pool a bit. Another way to look at it is that you could free some more time for story telling, art (etc.) by unifying an engine. The problem with the latter though is that a (unknown to me) percentage of programmers are mathematical artists. Their coding may like exceptionally boring to an outsider but keeping them from creating will lessen their ranks or simply make a potential inovator cease to exist. In other words do not segregate programmers from artists.

And here I ramble. Well it's Friday.

Cheers.
 
Possibly, but I think you're taking too romantic a view of things. I think the irreconcilable difference in our views is that you think the industry is fine (or okay), and I don't -- other than maybe from my geek inner-self (the part that likes tech for the sake of tech).

A lot of my arguments in the context of our debate have been to clarify what I feel are pitfalls in the "remove tech from the equation" thinking. In a void, it might seem like I have a diametrically opposed view to yours, but I really don't. Really I think what it is, is that there are a lot of shades of gray; as has been mentioned in this thread and others, different organizations have differing levels of centralization/tiers of hierarchy, and as such, both the corporate structure extreme and the "art house" extreme are alive and at play in the industry, with most houses lying somewhere along the continuum other than at either far end. For some studios, wherever they are on the continuum... it works for them. And for some, it doesn't, and they remain mired in a poor structuring and/or management situation.

I'm not against middleware I should mention, or standardization/centralization in the general sense. But I do think that these efforts should remain as optional adoption rather than forced adoption, to allow folk that think they have a better way to deal with their situation to go that route. I am a romantic though, I admit, in the sense that I admire those that "switch off their targeting computers" in their pursuit of the mission, if you catch my meaning. ;) But I respect the entire industry workforce, from the mega-publishers all the way down to the solo guys working an XNA title.

And... I had a response written up, but at this point I think we're just speculating heavily. I mean, sure, maybe under my ideas every developer I like would be depressed and working on accountancy software, or maybe, instead, every developer you like would have banded together and built the engine that finally delivers 4D (at reduced costs!). It all stems from the difference of views above, I think.

I hear ya, I do. I just want to make sure that if someone else has an idea for a different take on a 4D engine, that engine sees the light of day as well; I think we'll be better off for the diversity, and the economics will reward the title, all else being up to snuff.

Now what your specific use of 4D means here I'm not sure... but I'm rolling with it as just a placeholder for 'awesome.'
 
Now what your specific use of 4D means here I'm not sure... but I'm rolling with it as just a placeholder for 'awesome.'

Yeah, that's essentially it. It's a stupid meme. Supposedly Kutaragi said something about the PS3 achieving the 4th dimension, or rendering in the 4th dimension, or... hell, I don't know. I can't find the quote anywhere, other than referring to the meme itself. It was probably misattributed, or miscontrued, or just misquoted. Fanboys use it to harp on the PS3. I used it as placeholder for 'insert awesome, improbable or just impossible feature'.
 
Yeah, that's essentially it. It's a stupid meme. Supposedly Kutaragi said something about the PS3 achieving the 4th dimension, or rendering in the 4th dimension, or... hell, I don't know. I can't find the quote anywhere, other than referring to the meme itself. It was probably misattributed, or miscontrued, or just misquoted. Fanboys use it to harp on the PS3. I used it as placeholder for 'insert awesome, improbable or just impossible feature'.

I thought you might be referring to the Kutaragi thing loosely, but assumed that 'awesome' was what you meant. :)

Indeed yes the Kutaragi thing was misconstrued though; it wasn't rendering in the 4th dimension or any other such thing he was referring to (as is often recalled), but the idea of persistent worlds - that real-world time lapse would become an element of virtual worlds.
 
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Yeah, to me, 30% initially sounded extremely high, but then I've never worked on casual or web-portal games or games for mobile platforms and such. I would imagine that when you put all of that together, then the 30% sounds reasonable. I think if we confined only to the current-gen consoles, then the percentage is probably in the single-digits, especially considering that far less than 30% of the console games on the market are even *known* to the majority of the public.

And even for those you have heard of, people are not often going to buy that which isn't front and center on the shelf. If a game, not matter how miraculous a monument to design it is, gets shoved aside from the prime shelf space to be replaced by Halo 12, its story is pretty much over at that point.

That's a good point. I think even the mobile games space is well on its way to being hit driven -- consider the iPhone App Store. Virtual shelf space is just as hard to come by as the real thing, and the result is a bunch of Top 10 lists. The iPhone presents an interesting new market, but it's going to get crowded fast.
 
Only??? About 5 million more than I've expected... that's like a Wing Commander 4 difference...
 
A little on games pricing, the interesting part is

It helps to understand how that $60 pie gets sliced up among the many hungry mouths trying to feed their businesses. Divnich figures the typical breakdown works something like this:


* $12 go to the retailer.

* $5 go toward discounts, game returns and retail cross-marketing. (You didn't think those cardboard standees were free, did you?)

* $10 go toward cost of goods sold, which includes manufacturing the game disc, shipping the games to the store, and anything else directly related to production and delivery of the game package.

"It is generally accepted that most publishers receive $30 to $35 per game sold before they run into overhead, development and marketing costs."

http://www.crispygamer.com/features/2009-09-23/the-60buck-dilemma.aspx
 
So, selling 1 million copies brings in about 30-35 million, which is just about enough to cover a ~20 million budget plus marketing. As expected, really.
 
A note that this isn't a final word either, since Divnich doesn't actually know, he just probably has far more information than the rest of us.
 
So, selling 1 million copies brings in about 30-35 million, which is just about enough to cover a ~20 million budget plus marketing. As expected, really.

Well, if you are both publisher and developer, that is.
If you're independent, it can be quite a bit less than that, depending on how well you negotiate.
 
So, selling 1 million copies brings in about 30-35 million, which is just about enough to cover a ~20 million budget plus marketing. As expected, really.

You missed the money that the console developer would get for every sold game.

A general rule of the thump is that 1 million copies would cover 10 millions development costs.
 
That isn't really enough, everyone would've gone bankrupt by now with that kind of money...
 
Is it possible we overestimate game budgets? I remeber Fafalada saying something either here or on GAF about how japanese devs this gen still manage to make HD with last-gen budgets (and the results are mostly obvious).
 
I would assume that for certain kinds of games most (if not all) of the money goes into asset creation.

If you think about Forza3, surely the engined was enhanced but I seriously doubt they started from scratch. So the budget for F3 vs F2 should be significantly smaller if they were smart and kept high res assets from the previous game.

Another number I would like to see is what's the cost of adding an additional port to an existing game, e.g. Bioshock coming out on the PS3 after it debuted on PC and 360. All the game assets were done already, so the cost should be just the porting effort.

I understand that the development costs have gone pretty high in this gen with all the HD assets that need to be created, but if only 3/10 games are profitable I would expect most game companies to fold after a while, and that doesn't seem to be the case.
 
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