Nextbox SKU with no optical drive - strictly download/cable box?

[Squilliam]

Whats the chances that Microsoft will partner with cable companies and offer the next Xbox SKU as a cable box with games capabilities? All games and movies are downloaded thru the cable provider, with them getting a cut instead of retail stores. This could mean higher margins for games and it would be the culmination of Microsoft strategy so as to attempt to win over the living room space and deny Sony that same space concurrently. They could get a cut on all the downloads and share risk with the cable providers.

Look at the financial implications, the cable companies would subsidise a lot of the cost of the box anyway as they own the box anyway. Xbox live could easily be included in the price of subscription as an option. This would make all their efforts in terms of XNA and Xbox live arcade come to fruition in one go. Consider with a large back catalogue of full blooded games to download such as Halo etc, it would help alleviate first year buyer angst (Will I get any good games to play?).

Looking at this possibility, to me it makes perfect sense. It would spread games consoles to those who would otherwise not even think of purchasing one. With hundreds of millions of cable/digital subscribers all over the world, capturing 5% of this market would be 10's of millions of consoles sold. It would help spread them to people who would otherwise consider the large up front investment to be too expensive.

So whats your take on this?
Am I talking sausage or could this be real?

 

[infinity4]

Lack of optical drive also means console design can look sexier.

 

[woundingchaney]

I simply cant see a download only console being able to achieve mass market performance. We are still years away from seeing a viable online based ass encompassing structure and even then one can only guess as to how well users would be willing to adopt such a strategy.

An optical drive is simply necessity.

 

[NVNDA]

Not with cable

Well since I was disconnected from my cable service last week for three days for "using too much bandwith" without even being contacted by Comcast, (nor did their techs return my messages) I would say that downloading large chunks of software monthly (of games that could fill a BD-ROM) isn't ready for primetime with at least the cable networks.

I get speed bursts of up to 30mb at times and I cant use it???!!?!?!

If they start selling nextboxes, comcast would probably shut down the accounts within a week!

 

[Squilliam]

Well since I was disconnected from my cable service last week for three days for "using too much bandwith" without even being contacted by Comcast, (nor did their techs return my messages) I would say that downloading large chunks of software monthly (of games that could fill a BD-ROM) isn't ready for primetime with at least the cable networks.

I get speed bursts of up to 30mb at times and I cant use it???!!?!?!

If they start selling nextboxes, comcast would probably shut down the accounts within a week!

If comcast got a $5-10 cut off every download... Im sure they could make the bandwidth available!

 

[woundingchaney]

If comcast got a $5-10 cut off every download... Im sure they could make the bandwidth available!

Though one would assume that cut Comcast and similar providers would receive would come right out of the pockets of us the consumers, thus removing much of the suggested cost saving and convenience on our end (convenience being many are bandwith capped these days).

 

[Squilliam]

Though one would assume that cut Comcast and similar providers would receive would come right out of the pockets of us the consumers, thus removing much of the suggested cost saving and convenience on our end (convenience being many are bandwith capped these days).

Well, you'd save $20 on packaging, postage and retail margins. In addition to this, the cost of the machine would partially be subsidised as it makes an integral part of a premium cable tv service - Tivo/Channel delivery/movie box on demand funtionality. You could think of Comcast as the retailer and microsoft as the distributor/publisher. It would also allow for rental of games without leaving your living room.

Consider how threatened TV companies are by gaming... Their prime audience is switching to gaming, downloaded content. This could help them get their audience back also.

 

[valioso]

it seems a good idea to lose a lot of $$

 

[Arwin]

I think there is certainly an option to have at least one of multiple SKU's as a download only box. It does make a whole lot of sense eventually. Whether it will happen, I don't know, but if I look at the PS3 right now, I could imagine it happening eventually.

 

[Squilliam]

"Virgin Media ranks as the UK's largest provider of on-demand content, with over 3 million Video on Demand (VoD) customers.

The company currently brands its VOD service as "On Demand". In contrast to the Sky Anytime system from Sky Digital, Virgin Media offers a "true" VOD system. The service allows customers to stream programmes as and when they want to watch them from servers at the customer's local head-end. As the broadcaster automatically stores content on Virgin Media servers, this removes the need to pre-record many programmes. Users can search through a large library of programmes (called "TV Choice") from content-providers including the BBC, Channel 4, HBO, the Cartoon Network, Disney Channel, Discovery Channel, National Geographic, CBS Paramount, Buena Vista, Alliance Atlantis, Warner Brothers, Viacom (MTV, Paramount, Nickelodeon), Current TV, Teachers' TV ,Baby Tv and Virgin Media Television; and watch them when they want to. Subscribers to Virgin Media's premier television package, Size: XL, have the content included in their subscription, while other customers can pay £5 per month for unlimited access, or can utilise pay-per-view. In addition, Virgin Media offers a "Catch-up" service, which includes a free 7-day "watch-again" feature for selected television programmes broadcast by the BBC, Channel 4 and selected Virgin Media Television channels. The service also offers over 500 films (service-branded "FilmFlex"), and more than 1000 music-videos. As of 12 July 2007 the music videos became free for all XL customers"

Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Media#Video_on_demand

3 million customers is a lot. This could increase in the intevening years, so 250,000 consoles wouldn't be a number to sniffle at. I think cable providers would WANT to have a game console/media centre as part of their packages. Extra revenue thank you very much.

BTW, how much would you save by not having a physical drive in the system? $30-50 for HD?
You might even save enough space to fit a cheaper full size HDD in it as well. It certainly would help you shrink the console anyways.

 

[hey69]

normal adsl subscriptions here in belgium have a 10-15GB / month limit (cable around 20-30gbyte/month) so i dont see this YET common, but maybe more into the future why not?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

UK subscriptions tend to be of the order of 5, 10 or 'unlimited', with unlimited coming with speed caps if you download a lot. Grabbing 10s of GBs of downloads isn't particularly feasible.

As an aside it'd be nice if consoles came with download scheduling to download titles during non-capped times (basically when everyone's at work, and if you use the internet after work they don't take kindly to you downloading much...which beggars the question why offer fast broadband if you don't want people using it? )

 

[Deepak]

-ves against no-opt drive console:

1. Downloading is simply unviable even in developed countries and not to mention its is
2. If you want your console to sell globaly then you'll have to have an opt-drive console.
3. People like to have physical media.
4. You'll have to buy large size HDDs which are going to fill up rather quickly.
5. Will you be able to sell your downloaded games? How? For how much?

 

[inefficient]

I predict a no fly as well. A console with no physical media is doomed to be marginalized.

 

[valioso]

Not to mention all the DRM issues... it would be like xbox live multiplied by everyone..

 

[Teasy]

UK subscriptions tend to be of the order of 5, 10 or 'unlimited', with unlimited coming with speed caps if you download a lot. Grabbing 10s of GBs of downloads isn't particularly feasible.

A lot of them are lke that, though there are plenty of UK ISP's that offer much more. A few offer 40GB per month downloads for as low as £5 a month. I currently pay £0 for 40GB per month up to 8Mb broadband through TalkTalk (the Broadband comes free with my £5 a month unlimited local and national calls package). Still the majority of Broadband users do probably use the infamous "unlimited" ISP's who severely limited downloads at peak times.

 

[Cyan]

I think there is certainly an option to have at least one of multiple SKU's as a download only box. It does make a whole lot of sense eventually. Whether it will happen, I don't know, but if I look at the PS3 right now, I could imagine it happening eventually.

Yes, even if you prefer some kind of physical media they could sell games in USB flash drives, it's a very flexible type of storage and easy to carry (I can't think of a way to avoid all that many piracy potential problems, though). I like the idea of future consoles not having an optical drive.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

A lot of them are lke that, though there are plenty of UK ISP's that offer much more. A few offer 40GB per month downloads for as low as £5 a month. I currently pay £0 for 40GB per month up to 8Mb broadband through TalkTalk...

These good services aren't available in my area. We only get offered the dross deals.

 

[one]

It's not very likely that a full game console from an established brand around 2010 lacks an optical drive, but I see PSP without a UMD drive is a possibility. And it's cartridge-less too, you download games to your memstick. A download kiosk (cheap PC + dongle, or a custom PS3 just like current PS3 kiosks) is provided for retailers.

Actually Nintendo tried a similar thing with the Famicom Disk System in 80's, but it failed due to piracy and miscalculated cost. It may work today with internet.

 

[assen]

5. Will you be able to sell your downloaded games? How? For how much?

The inability to sell second-hand games would be a major point PRO the console in the eyes of the vendors, publishers and developers, so you shouldn't put it in the list of (mostly valid) reasons CON.