Next gen HW - what stage in development would it be in now?

[Betanumerical]

Only of simple scenes. How many PS3's would it take to ray-trace Uncharted?

I wouldn't call it a simple scene. They are also doing 4xSS AA.

IBM Interactive Ray-tracer (iRT) using three Sony Playstation3s (PS3) to render a model that is 75x more complex then those used in today's games. Ray-tracing is the rendering technique used by the film industry and is considered to complex for today's game systems. The code was written using IBM Cell SDK 2.0 on Linux. The iRT is totally scalable and only requires one Cell SPE to run. More PS3s = More SPEs = Higher client frame rates. All images are at least 720p 4x multi-sampled, with dynamic light sources, procedurally generated atmosphere, and dynamic shadows.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLte5f34ya8

But I know what you mean.

Wait, how the hell are they doing AA?, they are under Linux meaning they don't really have access to the GPU.

 

[sunscar]

Only of simple scenes. How many PS3's would it take to ray-trace Uncharted?

I'd suppose a few dozen - There's information out there regarding a raytraced scene composed of 3,000,000 static polys chunking along on quite a number of QS20s.

Edit: This particular iteration of the article doesn't mention how many QS20s, are utilised, but iirc, the number of CELLs was something like 28 (14 QS20s) linked to one PS3(?) as the main host - Apparently the frame rate was still pretty low, though.

Found a link...

http://gametomorrow.com/blog/index.php/2007/03/07/cell-power-at-gdc-2007/

 

[one]

Is RSX in PS3 usable to accelerate the ray-tracing process if RSX is accessible from developers?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I wouldn't call it a simple scene. They are also doing 4xSS AA.

It's one car in a courtyard. If that takes 3 PS3's, how many do you think it'd take to render 16 cars? In a large city environment? RT just isn't up to it! If a GPU is to be axed from PS4, it'll need t be with the addition of GPU like hardware to the Cell to aid rasterizing.

Wait, how the hell are they doing AA?, they are under Linux meaning they don't really have access to the GPU.

A raytracer can cast multiple rays per pixel and sample them; you just have to program it right.

 

[wco81]

Is AMD going to be around by the time the next gen arrives?

 

[ADEX]

It's one car in a courtyard. If that takes 3 PS3's, how many do you think it'd take to render 16 cars? In a large city environment?

3 PS3s.

Unlike traditional GPU rendering, in RT increasing the complexity of the scene does not increase the complexity of the computation.

RT just isn't up to it! If a GPU is to be axed from PS4, it'll need t be with the addition of GPU like hardware to the Cell to aid rasterizing.

Dedicated hardware of some form, yes.

If you think of it a Cell++ will have the computing power of 4PS3s, enhance that with some extra instructions or whatever (texture filtering units would be my bet) and it'll be a whole lot more powerful.

A pair of those in a PS4 would make quite a beast...

 

[nAo]

Unlike traditional GPU rendering, in RT increasing the complexity of the scene does not increase the complexity of the computation.

Keep on dreaming..

 

[idsn6]

I wonder if a next-gen Cell will retain a PPE or go the core-sea route.

 

[Npl]

3 PS3s.

Unlike traditional GPU rendering, in RT increasing the complexity of the scene does not increase the complexity of the computation.

aint that only remotly valid if you have a probably laid out hierarchy, like binary space partition, octtrees, whatever?
If you have a dynamic scene, then good luck keeping that hierarchy valid and peformance constant.

Also Texture-fetches would be very unpredictable for secondary rays wheres rasterizing per-triangle has good locality.

 

[Cornsnake]

Would they need a PPE for backwardscompatibility?

 

[Betanumerical]

It's one car in a courtyard. If that takes 3 PS3's, how many do you think it'd take to render 16 cars? In a large city environment? RT just isn't up to it! If a GPU is to be axed from PS4, it'll need t be with the addition of GPU like hardware to the Cell to aid rasterizing.

A raytracer can cast multiple rays per pixel and sample them; you just have to program it right.

So they are casting 4x as many rays as would be needed if you weren't doing AA? wouldn't that take 4x the power?.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

So they are casting 4x as many rays as would be needed if you weren't doing AA? wouldn't that take 4x the power?.

Yes, though you can be selective when to take multiple sample.

ADEX - Your understanding of raytracing is seriously flawed! By your example, if 16 cars is rendered in realtime on 3 PS3's, so would 100 be, and a 1000, with no increase in computation demands! And extrapolating that, if you were to create a scene where objects were made out of tiny little cars, it'd still render in realtime on 3 PS3s!

 

[ADEX]

Your understanding of raytracing is seriously flawed! By your example, if 16 cars is rendered in realtime on 3 PS3's, so would 100 be, and a 1000, with no increase in computation demands! And extrapolating that, if you were to create a scene where objects were made out of tiny little cars, it'd still render in realtime on 3 PS3s!

Hmm, maybe I didn't say that quite right...

My point is you can use the same number of rays to display 100 cars as you can to display 3 cars, or 1000 cars. You can double the complexity of the scene but while this may increase computation a bit, it'll be insignificant. That's why you can use ray tracing to display massively complex models like CAD models from jet airliners and that sort of thing.

It's a completely different technique from traditional 3D and the scaling is completely different.

The problem as NPL pointed out is more the dynamics of the scene, but different tree types can be used to help that.

Secondary ray coherence is a problem but that's a problem even if there's one object on screen. That's why no one uses real time ray tracing yet...

 

[FutureCTO]

In 6 years time I'll be using my Radeon HD 9700 (Geforce ran out of numbers so sue me ok? ^^). I will be playing direct X 13 games, and yet, you think that the PS4 won't be out by then? The PS3 in 6 years time will be in EOL (end of life) phase, think cheap, small, everywhere. It will be to the PS4 what the PS2 is to the PS3.

No console can expect to last 8-10 years, especially not with graphics power doubling every 18 months and Cpu power doubling still every 24 months. Software optimizations can only take you so far.

Consoles are obsolete before they hit the streets. The best example of this is the GPU in the PS3. It was already superceded by the G80 before it hit the streets.

Not true. PS2 came out October 2000. It has been out for eight years of Christmas holidays. And remains a competitive top selling platform. Games for it regularly break top ten software sales charts. If PS3 will be to PS4 as PS2 was to PS3, then the PS3 has 9 years of Christmas holidays coming since the PS2 doesn't look to be disappearing before next Christmas.

Xbox360 though futuristically pretty has the highest limits on its life.
HDD is not standard. Limiting the upgradabilty of it.
The DVD ROM is 12x speed limiting storage and streaming.
The fames eDRAM for free 4xAA actually has a bottleneck smaller than the PS2's eDRAM.
Additionaly the eDRAM space by ratio of frame size (720p) is smaller on the Xbox360 than PS2 (480i).
This would be in my opinion be a good hint as to why free 4xAA isn't happening.
And also explain why AA levels are generally about the same for PS3 and XB360.
They are both using similarly timed GDDR3 as the frame buffer.

My guess based on hardware limits.
PlayStation3 7-8 years
NintendoWii 5-6 years
Xbox360 4-5 years

Food for thought would be to consider the cost of a console divided by remaining lifetime. The you would know how much you are paying each year to play games.

 

[FutureCTO]

I wonder if a next-gen Cell will retain a PPE or go the core-sea route.

Would they need a PPE for backwards compatibility?

The PowerPC Instruction Set Architecture would be required.
Though the "in order execution" would not need to be continued.
Compatibility with PowerPC ISA part I-III would be needed.

Cell is a Heterogeneous processor. Meaning it is a single chip with more than one ISA.
PowerPC & SPE each have their own ISA.
Compatibility of the current code would require a support the ISA’s and simulating the IEB ring’s 12 stage timing.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

HDD is not standard. Limiting the upgradabilty of it.

Any console can be upgrageded with HDD, so upgradability isn't limited

The DVD ROM is 12x speed limiting storage and streaming.

No console gets a drive performance uprgrade so this is moot.

The fames eDRAM for free 4xAA actually has a bottleneck smaller than the PS2's eDRAM.

What has that got to do with future progress? Every bit of hardware has limits. It's not like PS2 and PS3's RAM bandwidth did or will expand over time!

Xbox360 4-5 years

This would be financial suicide. You've looked at this solely from a tech perspective and not a money perspective. If XB360 is making plenty of money, it'll be sustained. That's the reason PS2 is going strong, and not because it was hardware-wise leagues ahead of XB and GC. The hardware is antiquated, totally outclassed on all fronts (well, slightly outclassed in the case of one console... ), but remains a device people will buy for the games. If XB360 were to gain that position there's no reason it couldn't go on to sell for 6-7 years. 4 years is plumb-crazy! That'll be like one to two years of mild profitability on which to regain all those losses creating the platform!

 

[Gubbi]

Hmm, maybe I didn't say that quite right...

My point is you can use the same number of rays to display 100 cars as you can to display 3 cars, or 1000 cars. You can double the complexity of the scene but while this may increase computation a bit, it'll be insignificant. That's why you can use ray tracing to display massively complex models like CAD models from jet airliners and that sort of thing.

For a static scene you can reuse your space decomposition structure, games aren't static (at least not the fun ones).

Saying the cost of raytracing is equivalent to calculating primary rays is like saying the cost of rasterizing is the cost of only rasterizing visible pixels (ie. perfect culling)

Secondary ray coherence is a problem but that's a problem even if there's one object on screen. That's why no one uses real time ray tracing yet...

Secondary ray coherence *tanks* with big increases in scene complexity simply because the chance of rays that are mostly coherent after first intersection stay coherent falls rapidly.

Cheers

 

[FutureCTO]

1. Any console can be upgrageded with HDD, so upgradability isn't limited
2. No console gets a drive performance uprgrade so this is moot.
3. What has that got to do with future progress? Every bit of hardware has limits. It's not like PS2 and PS3's RAM bandwidth did or will expand over time!

This would be financial suicide. You've looked at this solely from a tech perspective and not a money perspective. If XB360 is making plenty of money, it'll be sustained. That's the reason PS2 is going strong, and not because it was hardware-wise leagues ahead of XB and GC. The hardware is antiquated, totally outclassed on all fronts (well, slightly outclassed in the case of one console... ), but remains a device people will buy for the games. If XB360 were to gain that position there's no reason it couldn't go on to sell for 6-7 years. 4 years is plumb-crazy! That'll be like one to two years of mild profitability on which to regain all those losses creating the platform!

One moment need to dial in some communication on my points.
1. The point of having an HDD by default is room to developers to work with. Yes, Xbox360 has an HDD option. (Which costs 2x to 3x what it costs on a PS3.) But Microsoft explicitly stated multiple times gamers do not have to have an HDD to play their games. MS also places higher demand on moving the Core and Arcade systems for greater profit, than the HDD equipped systems. (I am referring to their use of retail shelf space allocated to them as major retailed. Often no sticker space for the HDD units is even present. Even though there isn’t an actual shortage of HDD’s being made. So the HDD SKU unit shortage is artificial, in that they placed higher priority on the units without HDD.) So developer must respect these factors as well as the consumers without HDD's. That means that the games cannot be designed with dependency on the HDD. And the developers were supposedly could not upgrade to the HDD in any way that defeats playing without it. Which is why Capcom wanted to install Devil May Cry. Burnout Paradise cannot be played online without an HDD on the Xbox360. So the gamers and the developers in the last case are limited by a lack of HDD.
The only way for Microsoft to overcome this, is to reverse its position and discontinue making units without an HDD. Which financially they would not do until the profits from the HDDless units pay off the RROD expenses. They literally charge twice what each unit costs to make and are still operating in the negative, due to the reliability of the console.

2. I meant that as developers learn to make use of caching and streaming from the 60MB/sec HDD on the PS3; that the 15MB/sec DVD on the Xbox360 becomes a limit to cross platform development.

3. Having headroom to grow and explore is important. The PS2 didn’t reach 90% of the devKit performance meter until 5 years into its life. Around then an amazing game called GOD OF WAR appeared. So newer better looking or performing gamers kept coming that whole time. The headroom Microsoft thought it had and advertised at launch hasn’t yet manifested. Free 4xAA and Games not needing more than one DVD9? Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey are both 3 and 4 disc games whose poor packaging are to be blamed on the limits Microsoft places on size of US packaging. On PS3 5 DVD9 discs would fit on one Blu-Ray disc. http://kotaku.com/355825/american-lost-odyssey-packaging-is-an-exercise-in-half-measures My point being the Original Xbox had more headroom to grow than the Xbox360 due to an HDD being present by default.

All additional features on the Xbox360 absolutely require an HDD. Such as backwards compatibility, Divx video, Online Play, etc etc. The 256MB on the core models is half the internal memory on Nintendo Wii, 512 MB. That is pitiful. Financially the Core models are a trap to consumers requiring upgrade after creating a Live account and renting/buying 1 to 4 games. Each online video or (up to 150MB) online Arcade game would kill this space. They call it Arcade but it can’t hold five Arcade downloads. Two years into the life of the Xbox360 and it already had to quietly contradict back the majority of what it said it could do with the base units. Where PS3 has a 20GB minimum HDD that is openly upgradeable at less than 50% the cost. Includes Blu-ray ($300) which any HDTV owner or HD monitor gamer will want. Includes support for a second OS, that can freely be used for web browsing, printing, and just about any Linux PC tasks. PlayTV also brings an amazing new value to the package. All together you have a system that exceeds the Cult wonder of Xbox Media Center.

SDK 3.0 came out October 19, 2007. Jump forward 18 months to April 2009. If more AAA games and entertainment start hitting PS3 at that time. And they are beyond the limits of the Xbox360, the market will shift to Sony. Additionally by June 2009 the Cell and RSX will be merged using a 45nm die. Whatever else is going on, the PS3 will become a low power mega house.

If anyone bothers to apply the math…
Xbox360 Arcade $280
+ $180: 120GB HDD http://www.ebgames.com/product.asp?cookie_test=1&product_id=802643
= $460 for the Arcade with the most common HDD?
Verses a $400 PS3 that plays Blu-ray movies and works as a PC in addition to Gaming!?

Wireless add $70; Microsoft separate the Rechargeable Battery & Cable, from the Wireless controller?
$50 = Controller http://www.ebgames.com/product.asp?product_id=802113
$20 = NiMH Battery & Recharge Cable http://www.ebgames.com/product.asp?product_id=802125
Verses a $50 SIXAXIS controller with a Lithium Ion Battery that has longer usages and twice the rechargeable lifetime.
http://www.target.com/PlayStation-3...e=UTF8&node=296579011&frombrowse=1&rh=&page=1

Once Consumers start seeing how the fees are hidden costs, broken across items, Xbox360 is no bargain at all.
Curious point I just highlighted in the quote. With SDK 3.0 runtime the usable bandwidth on the IEB did in fact increase.
And bandwidth efficiency and usability of the Local Store will likely improve with time as well. Same was true of the PS2 eDRAM.
No matter how productive the Xbox360 10MB eDRAM gets it will never get more than 32GB/sec, from the advertised 256GB/sec.
The 2.5MB of local store on the IEB moves from point to point at about 102.4GB/sec = great access for linking Geometry Shading.

The only way for Microsoft to keep its lead in the next year is to drop its price by at least $80 across the board & discontinue the HDD less system.
Otherwise in 2009 or 2010 they will be announcing a whole new system to recapture their position in the market.
I don’t believe Xbox360’s gaming variety has what it takes to sustain itself beyond 2010.
You can speak hypothetically of it emulating the PS2’s reign and call other ideas crazy.
But the Wii is alreayd Crushing it harder than PS2 did last time.
And the PS3 is already outpacing it when comparing from launch day forward.
These facts make it crazy to think the scenerio this time will be much better than last.

Without an HDD or more than 256MB of memory user content creation and developmental freedom will be limited. Wii and PS3 already have user content coming. Where is this on the Xbox360?
Imagine all PC’s had to run a live imagine DVD instead of use an HDD.
The days of Xbox360 are quietly already counting down.

It may be another year while PS3 SDK 3.0, PSNetwork, PS3 Linux (Mar 2008), Home (June 2008), Blu-ray 2.0 (Oct 2008), & PlayTV mature before others see it. All you have to do is realize the game includes Nintendo Wii this time and all your forcast become crazy. Becuase things start to look worse for Xbox360 this time, than they were the last.

Xbox This Time: http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php
Xbox Last Time: http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=GC&reg1=All&cons2=PS2&reg2=All&cons3=XB&reg3=All&weeks=156

As you can see by comparing from launch, it is doing worse this time, than last time.
I'm not crazy. I just see the technical limits and historic statistical probability.

My forcast is consistant to the data.

PlayStation3 7-8 years
NintendoWii 5-6 years
Xbox360 4-5 years

Food for thought would be to consider the cost of a console divided by its remaining lifetime. Then you would know how much you are paying each year of play.

Try doing the math.
Wii and PS3 are much better choices, whose sales are tracking better.
They are also much better priced when you look at the real cost of ownership.
In just another 2 years Xbox360 will have to try again or lose its starting momentum.

 

[Squilliam]

One moment need to dial in some communication on my points.
1. The point of having an HDD by default is room to developers to work with. Yes, Xbox360 has an HDD option. (Which costs 2x to 3x what it costs on a PS3.) But Microsoft explicitly stated multiple times gamers do not have to have an HDD to play their games. MS also places higher demand on moving the Core and Arcade systems for greater profit, than the HDD equipped systems. (I am referring to their use of retail shelf space allocated to them as major retailed. Often no sticker space for the HDD units is even present. Even though there isn't an actual shortage of HDD's being made. So the HDD SKU unit shortage is artificial, in that they placed higher priority on the units without HDD.) So developer must respect these factors as well as the consumers without HDD's. That means that the games cannot be designed with dependency on the HDD. And the developers were supposedly could not upgrade to the HDD in any way that defeats playing without it. Which is why Capcom wanted to instal
l Devil May Cry. Burnout Paradise cannot be played online without an HDD on the Xbox360. So the gamers and the developers in the last case are limited by a lack of HDD.
The only way for Microsoft to overcome this, is to reverse its position and discontinue making units without an HDD. Which financially they would not do until the profits from the HDDless units pay off the RROD expenses. They literally charge twice what each unit costs to make and are still operating in the negative, due to the reliability of the console.

Microsoft sells far more Pro and Elite systems than they have ever sold Core/Arcade. They would be making MORE not less on these systems because HDD's are cheap, certainly not more than the current price differences. Furthermore with continued profits every quarter, they will probably be in the black for the Xbox360 lifespan later this year. [/quote]

2. I meant that as developers learn to make use of caching and streaming from the 60MB/sec HDD on the PS3; that the 15MB/sec DVD on the Xbox360 becomes a limit to cross platform development.

It becomes a limit for the PS3 for cross platform development actually. So long as the sales numbers are equal or fewer for the PS3, most publishers will target the largest common market they can. If you add Wii into the equation, a 3 platform port has two consoles that won't be optimised for a HDD so this will more like aversely affect the PS3 platform. Much like how the Xbox1 and PS2 generation went.

3. Having headroom to grow and explore is important. The PS2 didn't reach 90% of the devKit performance meter until 5 years into its life. Around then an amazing game called GOD OF WAR appeared. So newer better looking or performing gamers kept coming that whole time. The headroom Microsoft thought it had and advertised at launch hasn't yet manifested. Free 4xAA and Games not needing more than one DVD9? Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey are both 3 and 4 disc games whose poor packaging are to be blamed on the limits Microsoft places on size of US packaging. On PS3 5 DVD9 discs would fit on one Blu-Ray disc. http://kotaku.com/355825/american-lo...-half-measures My point being the Original Xbox had more headroom to grow than the Xbox360 due to an HDD being present by default.

You should be glad that the Xbox didn't come with an HDDVD drive, because Sony would have been up the creek without a stick had the Xbox come with an HDDVD drive preinstalled in it. We would have been talking about the death of Blu ray, and sooner than what happened recently. Not only this, but have you considered there are other options to "upgrade the xbox"? They could release a 5-10gb USB flash drive that piggie backs on the front usb ports for less that $10-20 retail or even give it away if it became an important point. As for packaging? My lost odyssey came well packaged in a double dvd case. It was cheap for me too at $87 dollars, usually games are $120-130 for me.

All additional features on the Xbox360 absolutely require an HDD. Such as backwards compatibility, Divx video, Online Play, etc etc. The 256MB on the core models is half the internal memory on Nintendo Wii, 512 MB. That is pitiful. Financially the Core models are a trap to consumers requiring upgrade after creating a Live account and renting/buying 1 to 4 games. Each online video or (up to 150MB) online Arcade game would kill this space. They call it Arcade but it can't hold five Arcade downloads. Two years into the life of the Xbox360 and it already had to quietly contradict back the majority of what it said it could do with the base units. Where PS3 has a 20GB minimum HDD that is openly upgradeable at less than 50% the cost. Includes Blu-ray ($300) which any HDTV owner or HD monitor gamer will want. Includes support for a second OS, that can freely be used for web browsing, printing, and just about any Linux PC tasks. PlayTV also brings an amazing new value to the package.
All together you have a system that exceeds the Cult wonder of Xbox Media Center.

You say there are contradictions, speak them then? Anyhow, the unit does exactly what it says it does. It allows you to play Xbox games. It's for people who don't want to go online to get extra content etc, that just want to play. Furthermore, what stops people from streaming their media from another P.C? 20gb/40gb isn't really going to cut it, even if you want a part time media centre. As for openly upgradeable? Who OPENLY upgrades their consoles internals? Furthermore, what people actually care about having Linux that, aren’t a member of a tech forum? Last I checked less than 5% of people cared. Blu ray? Nice, I've played one blu ray movie and I honestly couldn't tell the difference from 6 feet on a 53" 1080p bravia. I nick shows off the NBC site all the time, at low quality. But for some people it's good I guess. Play-tv does sound good doesn't it? But I have Mysky, so ill most likely give it a miss. Lastly "Cult of wonder" That isn't appropriate in any discussion.

SDK 3.0 came out October 19, 2007. Jump forward 18 months to April 2009. If more AAA games and entertainment start hitting PS3 at that time. And they are beyond the limits of the Xbox360, the market will shift to Sony. Additionally by June 2009 the Cell and RSX will be merged using a 45nm die. Whatever else is going on, the PS3 will become a low power mega house.

Aren't you jumping ahead of yourself? If the PS3 doesn't outsell the Xbox in this year by a decent margin, it won't matter really. If the Xbox outsells the PS3 this year by a decent margin, well, it probably never will be surpassed by the PS3. This market is ruled by cross platform. Don't be snide about cross platform either. The PS3 benefited greatly from it.

Well we are beyond the limits of the Wii and yet the market hasn't shifted. If anyone who was a true to heart graphics junkie in 2009 didn't have a games P.C, I would call him/her an idiot. Anyhow, it's quality, not flash that sells games. Wii Tennis is fun, I can actually play it with my girlfriend. For that reason I value it more than RFOM2/Haze/Farcry/Spore/DNF/Mass effect/Crysis/Stalker etc.

If anyone bothers to apply the math.
Xbox360 Arcade $280
+ $180: 120GB HDD http://www.ebgames.com/product.asp?c...duct_id=802643
= $460 for the Arcade with the most common HDD?
Verses a $400 PS3 that plays Blu-ray movies and works as a PC in addition to Gaming!?

Frankly, I don't see anyone applying this math. It doesn’t apply to most people.

Wireless add $70; Microsoft separate the Rechargeable Battery & Cable, from the Wireless controller?
$50 = Controller http://www.ebgames.com/product.asp?product_id=802113
$20 = NiMH Battery & Recharge Cable http://www.ebgames.com/product.asp?product_id=802125
Verses a $50 SIXAXIS controller with a Lithium Ion Battery that has longer usages and twice the rechargeable lifetime.
http://www.target.com/PlayStation-3-...e=1&rh=&page=1

The PS3 doesn't come with a remote. Doesn't that even it out since Blu Ray is such a big thing for the PS3? My Xbox remote is still in its box, safe from being needed, But hey! By your logic since it costs money we gotta add it onto the list.

Once Consumers start seeing how the fees are hidden costs, broken across items, Xbox360 is no bargain at all.
Curious point I just highlighted in the quote. With SDK 3.0 runtime the usable bandwidth on the IEB did in fact increase.
And bandwidth efficiency and usability of the Local Store will likely improve with time as well. Same was true of the PS2 eDRAM.
No matter how productive the Xbox360 10MB eDRAM gets it will never get more than 32GB/sec, from the advertised 256GB/sec.
The 2.5MB of local store on the IEB moves from point to point at about 102.4GB/sec = great access for linking Geometry Shading

You're making a big point regarding EDRAM, and this has probably been discussed somewhere. Got proof?

The only way for Microsoft to keep its lead in the next year is to drop its price by at least $80 across the board & discontinue the HDD less system.
Otherwise in 2009 or 2010 they will be announcing a whole new system to recapture their position in the market.
I don't believe Xbox360's gaming variety has what it takes to sustain itself beyond 2010.
You can speak hypothetically of it emulating the PS2's reign and call other ideas crazy.
But the Wii is alreayd Crushing it harder than PS2 did last time.
And the PS3 is already outpacing it when comparing from launch day forward.
These facts make it crazy to think the scenerio this time will be much better than last.

The Wii is both technically not competing quite for the same dollar and also not crushing the Xbox like the previous PS2 and Previous Xbox. In addition the PS3 is being crushed harder and we should all have cake. So what sales numbers are you drawing that conclusion from? I said sales, not shipments. You don’t seem to like the Xbox very much, don’t worry the Xbox fanboys of the last generation had similar arguments, so you’re in good company.

Without an HDD or more than 256MB of memory user content creation and developmental freedom will be limited. Wii and PS3 already have user content coming. Where is this on the Xbox360?
Imagine all PC's had to run a live imagine DVD instead of use an HDD.
The days of Xbox360 are quietly already counting down.

XNA? I think there are a few threads on that. Do try to look at current threads when posting.

It may be another year while PS3 SDK 3.0, PSNetwork, PS3 Linux (Mar 2008), Home (June 2008), Blu-ray 2.0 (Oct 2008), & PlayTV mature before others see it. All you have to do is realize the game includes Nintendo Wii this time and all your forcast become crazy. Becuase things start to look worse for Xbox360 this time, than they were the last.[

How can

Xbox This Time: http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php
Xbox Last Time: http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?con...=All&weeks=156

Funny that the 360 is predicted to best the Xbox1 this year and yet you say it's doing badly? How empty is your glass again?

As you can see by comparing from launch, it is doing worse this time, than last time.
I'm not crazy. I just see the technical limits and historic statistical probability.

My forcast is consistant to the data.

Try doing the math.
Wii and PS3 are much better choices, whose sales are tracking better.
They are also much better priced when you look at the real cost of ownership.
In just another 2 years Xbox360 will have to try again or lose its starting momentum.

Did you catch that piece http://kotaku.com/356982/analyzing-t...ts-episode-one it seems to show how badly trying to analyze can go. Me? I try to not spend time comparing consoles when I have so many games I haven't played yet.
Did you catch that piece http://kotaku.com/356982/analyzing-the-analysts-episode-one it seems to show how badly trying to analyze can go. Me? I try to not spend time comparing consoles when I have so many games I haven't played yet.

Mod Note edited: Please read post before deciding content is worthless..

 

[AzBat]

Note to mod: He didn't add just two sentences, in the subscription email I received he had a point by point rebuttal. He might have had a problem with quoting and that's probably why it looked like only 2 sentences. Squlliam, if you want your post let me know.

Tommy McClain