Next gen HW - what stage in development would it be in now?

[Mobius1aic]

Well yes but I was hoping to avoid a PC vs console war. At least wait while the PC's secretly build up in strength for one final blow to end all consoles.

Well you can't argue what is pretty much true when it comes to comparing the two GPUs. It's simple theoretical math. Give the same dev team time with both GPUs running the same game, they'll get about double the frames per second on the G80 and be able do higher resolutions to boot (with VRAM amount and bandwidth willing).

 

[archangelmorph]

... Ok..

So let's put away all this PC-fanboy d***-waving & get back to the discussion at hand..

Thanks..

 

[Squilliam]

I wasn't trying to wave anything but my hand I swear! I was trying to explain why we won't be waiting for 6-8 more years for the PS4 and I was trying to avoid PC vs Console. I hope thats clear. (Already had a thread of mine closed for console vs console)

I'd say they would be starting now to gear things up for the next one. Not sure of their planning process so all this is just speculation really. I think it's too early for a thread like this. Thats why we're getting sidetracked IMO (Can't forget the obvious superiority of the Amiga) What I mean is things are coming off the drawing boards and being tested. Thats my best guess.

 

[Arwin]

I think the final hardware design has to be ready in about 2-3 years tops, so I'd say they've started. More importantly though, I'd think that I don't think they ever stop anymore. You are continuously investigating trends in the market and analysing what's needed and what strategies to follow for the next generation, and from there you decide which stuff you want to address with current hardware and software, and which stuff in future hardware.
Also, they will (or should) be continuously looking at lessons learnt from the PS3 hardware, now and in the future. So it should be a lot more organic a process than saying 'hey, let's start the new PS4 project'. There should be a point where they say 'ok, we know what we need to do, so it is time to set the deadlines and work towards the final model', but when that is can depend on so many things (they may even just end up with two completely different consoles, may put tonnes more research into peripheral design, and so on).

 

[AzBat]

The Xbox Insider from 8BitJoystick.com states that Microsoft planned on a 7 year life cycle for the 360...

http://www.8bitjoystick.com/archives/jake_xboxfounder_answers_your_questions.php

3rd gen when?
The reasons the span between XB1 and 360 was so short were that XB1 was losing so much money, and MS wanted to get a head start on Sony in this gen. But the plan for 360 was for a 7 year life cycle before the next console. I don't know if that has changed since I left, but I don't see anything to cause it to. Just because they are already working on it doesn't mean it's anywhere near shipping. It's normal product development practice to always be working on new technology. And what should they be doing, given the problems on 360? I'm sure they don't want to repeat that.

Tommy McClain

 

[Acert93]

Sony's claims are that PS3 will last ten years, not that it won't have a successor until ten years from now.

That would be the proper understanding... but Kaz actually PR'd the specific point that contrary to this in support of the 10 year cycle before the next PlayStation. And there are proponents to this idea here as well, so it isn't so cut and dry because they did, on at least one occassion, explain the 10 year comment being that indeed (but in general it should be understood as PR comfort talk for an expensive purchase and to buidl confidence)... Sony are idiots if they think they can stick with the current Playstation (RSX, 8 core Cell, 512MB memory) until 2016.

 

[Carl B]

That would be the proper understanding... but Kaz actually PR'd the specific point that contrary to this in support of the 10 year cycle before the next PlayStation. And there are proponents to this idea here as well, so it isn't so cut and dry because they did, on at least one occassion, explain the 10 year comment being that indeed (but in general it should be understood as PR comfort talk for an expensive purchase and to buidl confidence)... Sony are idiots if they think they can stick with the current Playstation (RSX, 8 core Cell, 512MB memory) until 2016.

Sony's execs don't know what they're talking about half the time... something I have a personal problem with. It's not enough to run a business... you damn well better be familiar with it to!

But I put the chances of Sony putting PS4 out 10 years after PS3 at exactly zero percent, even if there are some deluded hats over there that think that's actually the plan! And I'm happy to put money on the line with that claim, even though nine years is a long time to wait for the results. (Though in my scenario we'll only be waiting ~five)

 

[AlNom]

The Xbox Insider from 8BitJoystick.com states that Microsoft planned on a 7 year life cycle for the 360...

Se7en Years sounds reasonable.... for not only Bungie, but for all those trilogies. That would also give them a lot more time to engineer something with polish, and possibly not be severely supply-constrained at launch. I don't think either companies wants to rush through this generation.

 

[archangelmorph]

Sony's execs don't know what they're talking about half the time... something I have a personal problem with. It's not enough to run a business... you damn well better be familiar with it to!

But I put the chances of Sony putting PS4 out 10 years after PS3 at exactly zero percent, even if there are some deluded hats over there that think that's actually the plan! And I'm happy to put money on the line with that claim, even though nine years is a long time to wait for the results. (Though in my scenario we'll only be waiting ~five)

in a world with no competition & where every console sold to consumers would be a playstation, a 10 year life span would likely be very much appreciated..

(I strictly remember how many people complained that the current gen "came to early" at a time where some of the best games of the PS2 we're just hitting the market with promises of more to come..)

Unfortunately such a world exists only in fantasy & OTIII scientology doctrine..

 

[Cornsnake]

Having longer console generations is good for both Microsoft and Sony. But they also have to be careful not to give the other a big enough headstart into the next generation. If Microsoft release their next console in 3 years it could put Sony in a bad position.

 

[archangelmorph]

Having longer console generations is good for both Microsoft and Sony. But they also have to be careful not to give the other a big enough headstart into the next generation. If Microsoft release their next console in 3 years it could put Sony in a bad position.

Depends..

IMO nintendo have shown everyone this gen that the "me too" approach of tailoring you hardware business towards providing the cookie-cutter experience without any form of differentiator is both costly & dangerous.. You not only end up being forced to follow the high end technology curve which will only force you to spend more on better hardware & give you a harder time of making it back but you also run the risk of having your competitor jump in to market a year before with a product which offers the consumer a similar/derrivative experience, removing most of the edge off your product which may or may not have a big enough technological advantage over it..

If Sony truely wish to learn from this and decide to "innovate" with respect to the next playstation platform, they may very well put themselves in a solid position whereby they can boldly bring a product to market that doesn't get it's "thunder stolen" because it offers something completely unique (a la nintendo) & maintain a profitable & successful business off it irrespective of what the other guys are doing or doing before them..

IMO the playstation brand is still pretty strong & if they can return to their roots of what made there brand so successful in the first place (massive game libraries, strong third party support, diverse software, affordable pricing, unique experience..), then they'll be in a much better position to make waves next time around..

 

[ShaidarHaran]

Depends..

IMO nintendo have shown everyone this gen that the "me too" approach of tailoring you hardware business towards providing the cookie-cutter experience without any form of differentiator is both costly & dangerous.. You not only end up being forced to follow the high end technology curve which will only force you to spend more on better hardware & give you a harder time of making it back but you also run the risk of having your competitor jump in to market a year before with a product which offers the consumer a similar/derrivative experience, removing most of the edge off your product which may or may not have a big enough technological advantage over it..

While this is all very true for this generation, I don't believe Sony can even be in the same situation for next generation. What held them back this time was Blu-ray and Cell. Next time around there won't be the need to switch to a new media format, Blu-ray will already be an established standard. We'll likely have something like a 12-16x B-r drive in the next Playstation. As for Cell they've already got that down so now it's a matter of revising (new instructions?, different types of memory, more cores, etc.) and shrinking to the latest process at the time of production (32nm, possibly 22nm if anyone other than Intel even has that node up and running by then).

I think Sony is in a much better position to get PS4 out on-time and at a more acceptable price than they were with PS3.

If Sony truely wish to learn from this and decide to "innovate" with respect to the next playstation platform, they may very well put themselves in a solid position whereby they can boldly bring a product to market that doesn't get it's "thunder stolen" because it offers something completely unique (a la nintendo) & maintain a profitable & successful business off it irrespective of what the other guys are doing or doing before them..

IMO the playstation brand is still pretty strong & if they can return to their roots of what made there brand so successful in the first place (massive game libraries, strong third party support, diverse software, affordable pricing, unique experience..), then they'll be in a much better position to make waves next time around..

Unless PS3 bombs, it will probably be seen as more of a stepping stone to PS4 and a B-r movie player than anything else, so the game library is unlikely to be an issue. I'm sure we'll also see some new control scheme for that generation as well. You've got to do something with all that processing power, right? I've seen a camera control scheme suggested here for PS4, seems like a good match.

 

[Cornsnake]

Good point Archangelmorph.

The wiimote does very well for Nintendo. I fits the kind of games Nintendo makes perfectly. But Sony has a more diverse library, if they are going to ad a different control scheme then it should bring something to most of their games. I dont think a sixaxis or eyetoy can do that. Sony strongest part is still its firstpartydevs. Can they rely them to make them stand out from their competition.

All of this makes me think that there will be a much shorter time between introducing a new console and releasing it.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Perhaps the only option for Sony is to include two different controllers as standard? That provides the choice without limiting uptake and devices remaining niche. Their best option would be controller + EyeToy as standard, providing a broad spectrum of input modes.

 

[AlNom]

Perhaps the only option for Sony is to include two different controllers as standard? That provides the choice without limiting uptake and devices remaining niche. Their best option would be controller + EyeToy as standard, providing a broad spectrum of input modes.

Or.... how about a Revolutionary (!) controller that breaks into two pieces when it's being used for motion sensing, but is a normal dual shock when combined ?

 

[AzBat]

Or.... how about a Revolutionary (!) controller that breaks into two pieces when it's being used for motion sensing, but is a normal dual shock when combined ?

You mean like the ones mentioned in the Xbox 360 motion controller thread?

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1110472&postcount=10

Tommy McClain

 

[Megadrive1988]

If we for a moment assume that both Microsoft and Sony are aiming at releasing consoles the next generation with the target of being much faster and better than this generation (ie, not the Nintendo reuse strategy) - where would they be in their development process now?

I mean, are they still in the planning stages - everything is still undecided (CPU architecture, gfx hardware)?
Or perhaps they have decided upon the main architecture, and started designing hardware (minor things like RAM amount and clockspeeds still undecided ofcourse).

What can we deduct from previous gen, that is, how far in the planning were the Xbox360 and PS3 back in say 2003 or so?

Earlier than you might realize.



PS2 was being planned in early 1995, before the release of PS1 in the U.S.

PS3 planning was underway in 1999, around the time PS2 was announced and before it was released even in Japan.

original Xbox was being planned (in some form, not as we knew Xbox in 2000-2001) as early as 1998 when Microsoft aquired WebTV and the 3DO Systems team and their MX chipset. Read 'Opening The Xbox'. Actual development of Xbox was going on in 1999.

Dolphin/Gamecube was being planned in early 1998. The IBM CPU already existed in some form. Development of Flipper GPU was going on in 1999.

Wii was being planned / developed by 2000/2001.


Xbox 360 planning was underway in early 2002.
'Read The Xbox 360 Uncloaked'


by 2003, Xbox 360 and PS3 were far beyond planning, well into actual development. Xbox 360 was completed by late 2004. PS3 completed in 2005.


PS4 was being planned as early as 2005, since both Sony and Nvidia talked about future plans then. Sonyand Nvidia had a roadmap for graphics that started with RSX. No doubt it extended to PSP2 and all the way out to PS4 (at least on paper).

Xbox 3.0 was in planning by 2006 with the reports about Microsoft developing its own CPU.

By now I expect Xbox 3.0 and PS4 to be far into planning, and perhaps into actual early development. They're more than 2 years from release. The soonest release for Xbox 3.0 that's even within the realm of possibility would be late 2010. that's just over 2.5 years. I think late 2011 is a much more likely possibility though, so that's a little over 3.5 years.

I'm sure Nintendo was working on Wii 2 stuff before the Wii came out, and I imagine it's in development now. I wouldn't be surprised by a 2010 release, but most likely 2011. They've been releasing new consoles every 5 years in the U.S. since the SNES (1991, 1996, 2001, 2006).

Console companies almost always start some sort of work on the next generation BEFORE the new current generation system is released.

 

[AlNom]

It seems this is making the rounds at other sites:

http://jobs.gamesondeck.com/jobseekerx/viewjobrss.asp?cjid=14209&accountno=266#Details

Want to be involved in the next release of Xbox? Join the server-backed games team, part of the Xbox LIVE team that's responsible for creating a completely new way for mainstream audiences to enjoy the Xbox and LIVE.

We're building the games, the console interface and logic, and the server support for a totally new LIVE experience. Both the games and the dashboard experience will be deeply paired with dynamic server support to create a compelling, fresh scenario each time.

How long was the original Xbox Live in development

 

[ADEX]

No console can expect to last 8-10 years, especially not with graphics power doubling every 18 months and Cpu power doubling still every 24 months. Software optimizations can only take you so far.

CPUs haven't doubled in power in 24 months for quite some time, it takes several years now. That's why everyone went multicore.

e.g. When Core 2 came out it put Intel 30% faster than AMD, to do this they needed a silicon node jump, significant architectural changes and loads of cache. There was a time you could 100% through the process node change alone.

--

Anyway, what will happen for the next gen...

For the Cell it'll probably be something like what's already been announced, but I don't expect it to be identical. I also expect it'll have full Double precision support so IBM can reuse the chip in their supercomputer blades - the silicon difference will be so small by then I doubt it'll make enough of a difference size wise to not include it.

They'll probably go for cores over clock but I expect they'll do the same trick they did last time and go for the highest clock at the lowest voltage.

I also expect new super Rambus RAM so expect downright silly bandwidth numbers.
The RSX2 will be a top end Gfx part cut down as before - either that or they'll not have a dedicated GPU - they could use 2 Cell++s and use one to raytrace everything. 3 PS3s can do real time raytracing today so...

--

For the XBox3 I expect they'll go back to the original XBox processor design which was if what I've heard is right was something like Cell. So it'll be an spruced up Xenon a load of "SPE" type processors and some über AMD chip.

BTW I don't expect the "PPE" cores in Cell or Xenon2 to be quite the same, they'll probably be able to get latency down in the caches, I also expect some POWER6 style run-ahead technology to be added, that will boost performance quite significantly.

--

Nintendo, I've no idea really...

Game Cube 3 with some even weirder controller.


That said I expect they'll all have some weird new controller systems.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

3 PS3s can do real time raytracing today so...

Only of simple scenes. How many PS3's would it take to ray-trace Uncharted?