What does HD DVD need to stay in the game, and when do they need it by?

[ShaidarHaran]

Here's what I know:
every store that I walk into that sells or rents movies, has at least B-r, if not also HD DVD discs available, and at least a full display (not just one row on a shelf). That includes Best Buy, Circuit City, Target, Wal Mart, and Blockbuster. Clearly HD is here to stay, and I doubt any of the aforementioned companies would devote entire displays or even sections to these discs if they were insignificant to the bottom line.

 

[Diamond.G]

I hate to say it, but for HD DVD to win/stay in the game, studios that support it should release all their movies as combo disc at a little above normal new release price (say 18 USD or so). It seems crazy that none of them have done that.

 

[ShaidarHaran]

I hate to say it, but for HD DVD to win/stay in the game, studios that support it should release all their movies as combo disc at a little above normal new release price (say 18 USD or so). It seems crazy that none of them have done that.

That would be an excellent move on their parts. I don't know that they can afford it though, given current production costs and volume of disks moved. Of course, such a move would considerably increase volume so you can somewhat neutralize that aspect of the equation.

 

[nelg]

The question is, how long does HD DVD have to "move the needle" on the content sales side? I tend to think if the trend lines don't start looking better than 2-1 against (i.e. 35% or higher *on average*) by March, then the cycle referenced above will kick in.

The problem with this question is that it assumes that the competition is between Bluray and HD-DVD. IMO, the competition is really between either format and the existing DVD format itself.

In that light, my opinion is that the first format that can reach the point that the price premium is $50 or less over a standard DVD player will win the 'war'. Of course this assumes that the price for media is no more than 20% greater also.

Another factor which I think does not get enough attention is that of which format will get cheap writeable media out for PCs first.

 

[Geo]

The problem with this question is that it assumes that the competition is between Bluray and HD-DVD. IMO, the competition is really between either format and the existing DVD format itself.

You're worried about the SuperBowl without first taking care of the Conference championships.

 

[Geo]

You're right, it's a gradual increase. It certainly wouldn't be decided by March as you originally implied.
.

Because I changed context from Retailers to Consumers. There is more than one moving part here. Unlike Amazon, the BestBuys, Circuit Cities, etc of the world have limited shelf space, and new titles come out every week. Tho Warner is in the stickiest spot there, as they are asking for three shelf spots for every new title right now, and two spots for every new hd library reissue.

 

[Dave Baumann]

I'm not sure that retail shelf space may be too much of an issue - in the UK major music retailer, HMV, has already stated they are shifting more focus from CD's to games due to dwindling CD sales thanks to music downloads; this is a fairly major move for them given there are already other sizable incumbants in the market. Other retailers may follow a similar course and scale back their shelf space of CD's in favour of other media. HD media is likely to be a growth one for some time.

 

[Acert93]

Does anyone have the media and player pricing of DVD software & hardware in its first 3 years of official release in America?

 

[Geo]

I'm not sure that retail shelf space may be too much of an issue - in the UK major music retailer, HMV, has already stated they are shifting more focus from CD's to games due to dwindling CD sales thanks to music downloads; this is a fairly major move for them given there are already other sizable incumbants in the market. Other retailers may follow a similar course and scale back their shelf space of CD's in favour of other media. HD media is likely to be a growth one for some time.

Could be. One element to consider is that purchasers of either format are probably the kind of consumer you want in your store. . . so there is an element of "loss leader" mentality on the retailers part even when there aren't sales going on.

 

[Dave Baumann]

Yes, especially those that are devoting a large amount of floorspace to HDTV's, any kind of media to go along with those is likely to be a good thing right now.

 

[Geo]

My bottom line is that it appeared to me that the HD DVD camp held some waiverers in line with the Paramount move and the promise of cheap players this Christmas. But both were assumed to have a signficant impact on content sales. If that doesn't develop, I think it will have consequences in some quarters. Of course, if it does develop then no problem. I don't think the bar is THAT high for them to stay in the game. But being on the short end of 2 to 1 (or worse) week after week will have consequences sooner or later, and those are likely to snowball once they start.

 

[Zaphod]

But being on the short end of 2 to 1 (or worse) week after week will have consequences sooner or later, and those are likely to snowball once they start.

Depends on what's driving said BR lead. If it's primarily the inevitable increase in "casual" PS3 sales, then they need not worry (in the interim term - unless the gap widens significantly). For any of the two to really succeed, the PS3 must eventually be marginalized as a vehicle for HD media.

 

[patsu]

I don't think it's just PS3 they need to worry about, HD DVD forum also needs to "worry" about lower cost Blu-ray players and the Macintoshes (Don't you think the consumer Macs look more and more like TVs ?); plus sustaining sales without BOGO.

Anyway, seeing how American startups work.... it is probably like a five year plan (e.g., starting slightly before HD DVD launched [because of preparation work] to when Paramount contract runs out). If at the end of five year, they can't make US$1 billion [for real or potential only], then it may be "sidelined" because of opportunity cost.

Along the way if the picture looks increasingly grim, and management sees that they have no hope to achieve their milestone anyway, they may also terminate the project early (in a PR-safe way). Or may be some sort of friendship will develope between Blu-ray and HD DVD.

 

[Geo]

If it goes that long, then Moore's Law will probably come to the rescue with reasonable priced dual-format players. Tho it will probably also add two or more years to the uptake curve.

 

[patsu]

If it goes that long, then Moore's Law will probably come to the rescue with reasonable priced dual-format players. Tho it will probably also add two or more years to the uptake curve.

... assuming the studios remain exclusive by then. It is cheaper to buy a single format player if there is no content advantage.


EDIT: The HD TV movement seems to have reached critical mass (this year or next). If Blu-ray keeps its player price reasonably low (like right now or even better next year) _and_ there is no format war, the HD movie may take off earlier (say by at least 2-3 years). That way, the studios can have BOTH the disc-based market and the download market after that -- rather than only download market, which will take a few years to cultivate too.

I also think that Blu-ray (Beyond BD 2.0) can be extended to handle digital download service later. So the studios can have a neutral platform to play with, instead of the very fragmented DRM picture now. IMHO, the studios should end the war by CES 2008 so everyone can focus on their own business plans to make money (i.e., No one needs to wait for HD DVD forum to slowly execute their 5 year plan, or BDA to slowly lower their price -- we may be closer to the tipping point than some think as HD TV falls in price).

 

[willardjuice]

If Blu-ray keeps its player price reasonably low

What? Besides the outdated $300 Blu-ray 1.0 player (which I hardly call cheap), what players were thinking of?

I also think that Blu-ray (Beyond BD 2.0) can be extended to handle digital download service later.

Yeah too bad there's only one current Blu-ray player (PS3) that's Blu-ray 2.0.

 

[Geo]

It's getting a little personal in here. Please direct remarks to the topic without addressing the mating habits, hygienic habits, etc of fellow members.

 

[patsu]

It's getting a little personal in here. Please direct remarks to the topic without addressing the mating habits, hygienic habits, etc of fellow members.

You bet.

What? Besides the outdated $300 Blu-ray 1.0 player (which I hardly call cheap), what players were thinking of?

PS3 drives Blu-ray component price down too. So it should be possible to launch new Blu-ray players at a lower cost compared to last year. There is also no law that says chinese can't make Blu-ray players. In fact, it is said that BDA has started to talk to chinese makers 2 months ago. Funai (Japanese ?) is another example that was commonly cited as an inexpensive player. Then of course, the game console will have its own cycle to lower cost.

Yeah too bad there's only one current Blu-ray player (PS3) that's Blu-ray 2.0.

There is always a start. _If_ (fictitiously) they follow through, what it means is that BDA has jump started their digital download service with 4+ million installed base today.

The value of BDA is that it is a real working forum that brings all the stakeholders today. If they were to do a RFP for digital download DRM, MS will find ways to propose too.

 

[ShaidarHaran]

What? Besides the outdated $300 Blu-ray 1.0 player (which I hardly call cheap), what players were thinking of?

Yeah too bad there's only one current Blu-ray player (PS3) that's Blu-ray 2.0.

Too bad no other media player on the market comes even remotely close to matching the value proposition that is PS3.

Infinitely upgradeable B-r, top-notch game console, backward compatibility with PS1 & PS2 games, media server, DVR, wifi, bluetooth, HDMI, multi-format flash card reader, built-in (and upgradeable) hard drive - all for $499 or less.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Too bad no other media player on the market comes even remotely close to matching the value proposition that is PS3.

Infinitely upgradeable B-r, top-notch game console, backward compatibility with PS1 & PS2 games, media server, DVR, wifi, bluetooth, HDMI, multi-format flash card reader, built-in (and upgradeable) hard drive - all for $499 or less.

That makes it really attractive for companies to manufacture standalones right?