Wither Warner?

[Geo]

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Warner/Warner_Mulls_Change_in_High-Def_Strategy/1123

A Warner Home Video exec says the studio is re-evaluating its dual-format support, and appeared to suggest that it was leaning towards Blu-ray.

As first reported by Home Media Magazine, the studio's statements came at yesterday's Blu-ray Festival press event in Los Angeles, where Warner VP Dan Silverberg represented the only major dual-format studio, following Paramount's move to HD DVD exclusivity this past August.

According to Silverberg, however, that may not be for long.

"One thing that may be changing is our strategy," he said. "When both formats launched and hardware prices were high, we made a decision to support both formats and let the consumer decide. But now that hardware pricing is affordable for both Blu-ray and HD DVD, it appears consumers no longer want to decide — so the notion of staying in two formats for the duration is something we are re-evaluating now that we are in the fourth quarter."

Silverberg went on to emphasize the Warner's strong Blu-ray sales, noting that the studio's Blu-ray release of '300' is the format's top selling disc. "We can definitely talk Blu-ray," said Silverberg. "We are committed to the format."

Taken together, a "commitment" to Blu-ray and re-evaluation of its dual-format policy would seem to suggest that if the studio did choose one format over the other, it would be Blu-ray, although it wasn't immediately clear whether that was the intent of Silverberg's remarks.

I believe I saw another report recently that said they'd also shelved their R&D on a dual-format disc, which might be a related development.

 

[digitalwanderer]

How much is the cheapest BR player right now?

 

[Geo]

$399 is the cheapest I've seen (one at that price on Amazon right now).

 

[Malo]

I'm not sure the average consumer would consider $400 "affordable" for a movie player.

 

[Geo]

We're sort of wandering away from the subject here. . . .

 

[Ruined]

We're sort of wandering away from the subject here. . . .

Warner denied that report and stated their comments were taken out of context in a Video Business interview yesterday, and that they remain neutral. Plus if anything, looking at Warner's history its pretty obvious they are slanted towards HD DVD.

 

[Mize]

$399 is the cheapest I've seen (one at that price on Amazon right now).

Samsung for $299

 

[Ruined]

Samsung for $299

That's a first gen player from mid-2006. I wouldn't recommend that just like I wouldn't recommend an HD-A1 at this point in time.

 

[Mize]

Neither would I. I'd buy a PS3...oh wait, I did!

 

[Zaphod]

Warner denied that report and stated their comments were taken out of context in a Video Business interview yesterday, and that they remain neutral. Plus if anything, looking at Warner's history its pretty obvious they are slanted towards HD DVD.

Yup. I mean, of course they're constantly re-evaluating they're position, but right now they seem to be sitting in pretty much the best position of the big studios, being the most successful on HD media. Abandoning that when everything seems pretty much up in the air wouldn't make much sense to me.

Warner Evaluates, Not Shocks Everyone to Pieces
October 31, 2007

Contrary to reports elsewhere, Warner Home Video has not changed its dual high-def format stance, according to studio spokesman Jim Noonan.

Sure, Blu-ray is beating HD DVD in titles sales by a 2 to 1 ratio. But that is not giving Warner an itchy exclu-Blu trigger finger.

True, the studio is using the word "evaluate" more when it discusses its high-def positioning. That does leave some wiggle room for a different decision down the road. But as of now, there is no leaning at Warner, where the studio is happy to be juggling both high-def formats and maximizing all possible high-def business.

"As far as whether this is an iron-clad situation, we are a smart company and evaluate all of our strategies on an ongoing basis," said Noonan. "It won't be any different in this case."

That said, Noonan added, "We have not altered our decision to be in both formats."

Much pressure has been placed on this fourth quarter to shed some light on the status of the format war. Each side is going in with full guns blazing, as studios are exclusively releasing A-list titles in HD DVD and Blu-ray.

The fourth quarter "is another piece of information," said Noonan.

 

[Geo]

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_51/b4063028294846.htm

So, apparently Warner really is in play and might make a decision as early as CES. I tend to think that's a little early. If I was evaluating the impact of this holiday season, I'd at least want to see the HD content sales for the first two weeks of January.

Now, with the Jan. 7 International Consumer Electronics Show fast approaching, Sony and Toshiba are keen to announce they have won over Hollywood's last holdout. In the meantime, they are falling over themselves to woo Warner. While either side could prevail, the Sony group has suddenly emerged as the front-runner.

 

[Zaphod]

I don't get stuff like this:

Why? [...] the Blu-ray forces have still lined up more studios than the HD DVD side. Plus this year, the Sony team has sold more than twice as many discs.

I won't discount Warner going Blu, but if they do it at this point in time - for those reasons, they'd be morons. I don't think they are.

Personally, I can see them going with HD DVD if they believe with some confidence that such a move would tip the balance. That'd give them quite a dominant position. I don't think they'll get the same potential advantages by going Blu-ray exclusive, in which case I see them staying neutral (unless they believe HD DVD to be doomed no matter what).

 

[Geo]

It doesn't really make a lot of sense to me either. It may be more about wishful thinking on the respective camps parts about getting Warner to hop down on their side of the fence.

Tho I still think that dropping "Total HD" seems to be an admission on their part that they don't see themselves as dual-format in the long-run.

 

[quest55720]

Well this really sucks big time. I bought hd-dvd players for the family for x-mass and the war could be over come january. I hope it is not true and the war goes on for a little longer so CEs get some dual format players out there to get prices down. If the war ends soon dual format player will just slowly fade away. I just don't see MS and toshiba letting this happen because it would be basically end game.

 

[RobertR1]

It's CES. The rumor mill is always at it's height.

 

[Mintmaster]

Not sure if it matters or if anyone cares, but Warner is denying it all again:
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multim...Exclusive_Blu_Ray_Support_Strategy_Shift.html

As has always been the case, studios can decide the war if they want to. It goes without saying that HD-DVD couldn't survive if only ~30% of HD movies were released in the format.

 

[jjayb]

I always see people quoting figures for amount of players sold. What about figures for Discs sold. In particular, comparison figures for sales of movies sold in both formats. Anything like that around?

 

[Geo]

Well, last week Blu-ray discs outsold HD DVD by 3-1 in the US. If that doesn't turn around in January once all those players under Christmas trees are opened, this thing could be over.

 

[Zaphod]

Last week (ending December 2) was 58:42 at Neilsen Videoscan.

 

[RobertR1]

Well, last week Blu-ray discs outsold HD DVD by 3-1 in the US. If that doesn't turn around in January once all those players under Christmas trees are opened, this thing could be over.

You can thank Pirates 3 for that.

Fact is, the overall volume is so low for either format, the numbers can shift greatly. Take Transformers for example. Even with a "buy one, get one free" sale by the BDA, they still got beat that week and yet Transformers on HD DVD only did 190k in sales for that week. That's it! In comparison, the standard DVD sold 8.3million in the first week. That 190k could be a damn near rounding error compared to the DVD sales. And this is the fastest selling title to date on either format. And let's not forget the more expensive media and authoring. A lot of the HiDefMedia titles don't even break even due to the aforementioned factors.

http://www.michaelbay.com/blog/files/bc6bd0eed6982da37067d7f226247883-175.html

Studios shifting around based on a few hundred thousand units sold isn't going to happen. It'll be for large incentives, long term revenue sharing and some political desicion making in the backroom. Ofcourse that won't stop us 9-5er's with deskjobs arguing about it though