These numbers cause me to be slightly conflicted. A 100% boost in PS3 sales is excellent, but I am "surprised" that PS3 sales were not stronger--it didn't beat the 360 and in the big picture sales numbers are still very, very low. The price is simply too high; Sony can make it under $400 for the holiday to remain competitive. The GTAIV delay really hurts Sony and the prospects of big exclusives like Lair underwhelming is not good news. They still have Haze and Unreal Tournament 3, along with strong 3rd party support, but I don't think holiday 2007 is going to be very kind to Sony in relation to historical Playstation sales or relative to their current market competition. Sony needed a lot more from their "price cut" (which appears to be going back up, too), but it doesn't appear the Playstation faithful are waiting at $499. Sony needs to do something sooner than later.
The Wii is a monster. It has done much better than I ever thought it could in terms of off season sales. When you look at the software (imo, the lack thereof) and how Nintendo skirted around traditional hype and a large segment of hardcore gamers, their continues success, and insane product demand, continue to impress. Whether they are creating new customers, meeting traditional consumer unmet needs, and/or taking the entire industry in a new direction isn't really established imo, but whatever they are doing they are doing it really well. The Wii is trending very favorably toward PS2 like sales. As a "gamer" I don't understand it, but I can see "why" and the market demand doesn't lie. The Wii is clearly trending toward absolute market leadership and the competition is clearly trending toward 2nd fiddle in
hardware sales. Wii software sales still raise some eyebrows (especially if I am a third party), but Nintendo should be sitting pretty with Mario, Metroid, and SSB for 2007. The only question for Nintendo is: Can you make 1M Wii's a month?
MS cannot seem to do much right: continued missed sales forcasts, process delays, multiple hardware failtures, contracted parties sueing eachother, E3 mismanagement, GTA delays, Peter Moore vacating. They cannot even muster a proper price drop after 2 years. They cannot stop leaks and don't appear to manage announcements well, far too often doing poor damage control instead of being proactive in announcements (e.g. HDD requirements). A lot of little things adding up don't bode well for MS.
Most damning being the Xbox 360 continues to trend toward Xbox sales.
MS totally mismanaged 2007. There should have been a price cut in March. This would have generated significant spring & summer sales, traditionally slower times, and kept a flow of consoles going through the channels. They cannot magically "make up" these sales in the holidays because the distribution channels and demand will be pretty high. MS really missed out--and they can blame no one but themselves and their poor handling of the RROD. Their mismanagement of that situation not only harmed them, but also the dev houses pushing "next gen" CPU/GPU oriented software.
But there are two silver linings for MS. First, from the sales data, notice how the 360 version NCAA 2008 is #1 in sales. It is notable because it not only lead all sales, but because it also outpaced the PS2 version significantly (397k versus 236K--68% increase on the 360). This is really important. PS2 sales continue to do better than the Xbox 360, and the PS2 has a 10 fold (more!) install base lead. Yet the Xbox 360 version sold a lot better. Hardware sales on the Xbox 360 continue to lag at historical Xbox levels, but the software is doing really well.
And that is where I think MS's other silver lining is: software. They clearly have the best fall lineup. The flow of games kicked off with NCAA/Madden and won't slow down now that Bioshock is out. The momentum MS will receive from having the best version of Madden (a huge NA title), followed by the amazing press that Bioshock has generated is going to rush right into Halo 3 next month. Bungie has noted there are a lot of Halo 2 players still on the Xbox, so there are still more consumers for MS to tap.
I don't think Xbox 360 hardware has sold well at all in 2007 (duh) but with next gen gaming finally getting a steady flow of games, the gradual reduction in unit retail prices, and platform defining games I think 360 sales will (finally?) pick up. A large degree of this will be related to Sony's pricing structure and release strategy. I think fall 2007 is where MS finally convinces a lot of fence sitters to "jump in".
But can they meet demand? 65nm delays, production woes, RROD, repair overload...
Looking forward is difficult because there are so many variables. I think the Wii could have ran completely away with better production abilities. They still may. MS won't be really competitive to the sales trends they initially wanted until they get the Core under $200 and the Pro at $299. MS is doing a poor job of creating a large enough install base to support next gen development for the industry. MS's future continues to be in their own hands... and to some degree next gen gaming. And looking forward for Sony I don't see rosy things. I think this holiday will be horrible and the momentum Nintendo and MS gain from software and the resulting software sales is going to shift substantial publisher support away from Sony. The Panasonic news on BDR support further muddies the issue for Sony.
I could be wrong on a lot of this, but whatever happens in late 2007 and into 2008, notably publisher profits, will directly impact how Sony, MS, and Nintendo fashion their G4 3D consoles which are at this point definately on the drawing boards.
