NPD June 2007

[Rangers]

I don't! I'd hate for console gaming tech to hit the pause button for 5 years, and I'd hate for traditional gamers to be forgotten in favour of less sophisticated gamers. Let Nintendo have their Wii and uber-sales if they get 'em, but not to the detriment of those of us who want something else. Just as all the Barbie lovers of the world are pleased that the creators of Barbie knew their market and didn't try to turn Barbie into Furby or Cabbage Patch Kids when they were all the rage.

Dont worry, I think the death of hi tech traditional consoles is overrated.

First, I dont care how popular Wii gets, I dont believe it can stop sales of PS3/360. Even if they are only 1/3, or 1/2, of Wii, they havent stopped and wont. PS3 can "kill" 360 off by becoming dominant, or vice versa, but I dont believe it's possible for Wii to kill the PS3 or 360 off, no matter how popular it gets, as they dont directly compete.

Look at third party software sales. They are still bigger on Xbox360 than anywhere else. And $60 games help those third party margins.

If anything, I think the long term favors the high tech consoles.

 

[quest55720]

The price for high tech mobile devices has been established. The iPhone is not setting a higher standard in terms of price (its no more expensive than a high end Blackberry). The PS3 did attempt to set a higher standard for consoles in terms of price and has failed.

That is exactly right cell phones have been expensive till recently. MP3 players were expensive for a long time. The high prices during introduction established them as high cost items. The established price for a console for the last 25 years has been 199-299 dollars in America. Trying to double the price of a production in 1 generation is going to create a lot of bad feelings and poor sales.

 

[Eteric]

The Wii isn't going to kill off the other two, but it most definitely will effect them in the long run. I do think that in the end, the Wii will have the largest library of games.

And just because of the nature of Nintendo themselves, it doesn't mean hardcore games won't see the light of day on the Wii. I wouldn't be surprised if this time next year, the Wii has quite a library of interesting third party games. It's also going to be interesting to see how developers push the Wii in an attempt to keep up with the other two in some way.

If the DS is any kind of indication, some third parties will make games for it just out of curiosity. Itagaki for instance, is making a Ninja Gaiden for the DS, just because he wanted to see if he could do it.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Sony should of either cut blue ray or delayed the system till it was affordable to put in like the PS2 and DVD.

So rather than launch at $600 in 2006 and price drop to $400 in...2008, you'd rather Sony sat on the console for 2 years, launch in 2008 at $400, with the competition entrenched? Launching when they did at the price they did meant those willing to pay that got the system they wanted at a price they were willing to pay. For those of us not willing to pay that much, we just wait until the price drops. That caters to everyone.

 

[thundermonkey]

The best thing Nintendo has done this generation for the "hardcore" is limitting the leaps taken in the tech jumps.

One or two more generations of 360 and PS3 style hardware jumps and the hardware becomes too expensive for the masses (a situation Sony is learning from currently), and too expensive for the developers.

The only thing that will end "hardcore" games is hardcore gamer money not being enough to support them. A generation or two more of these jumps some deem necessary, will do more harm for "hardcore" games then anything Nintendo could do when trying to market to less discerning audiences.

Slow down the tech jumps, and development costs stay within reason. Increase them by this measure indefinitely and hardcore gaming lasts ten to fifteen years tops.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

The best thing Nintendo has done this generation for the "hardcore" is limitting the leaps taken in the tech jumps.

One or two more generations of 360 and PS3 style hardware jumps and the hardware becomes too expensive for the masses (a situation Sony is learning from currently), and too expensive for the developers.

The only thing that will end "hardcore" games is hardcore gamer money not being enough to support them. A generation or two more of these jumps some deem necessary, will do more harm for "hardcore" games then anything Nintendo could do when trying to market to less discerning audiences.

Slow down the tech jumps, and development costs stay within reason. Increase them by this measure indefinitely and hardcore gaming lasts ten to fifteen years tops.

I think there is a lot more breathing room, between over engineered too expensive product at 600$ (not directly pointing at PS3 here) and cheap 5 year old tech with high profit margins from day 1 at 250$.

I certainly hope that the tech jumps won't slow down, not until processing power is at a level where things can look either real or unreal, but at very high quality :smile:

 

[thundermonkey]

I think there is a lot more breathing room, between over engineered too expensive product at 600$ (not directly pointing at PS3 here) and cheap 5 year old tech with high profit margins from day 1 at 250$.

I certainly hope that the tech jumps won't slow down, not until processing power is at a level where things can look either real or unreal, but at very high quality :smile:

Tech jumps will have to slow.

They won't end, but to see significant differences between this gen and next will require a jump at least as high as seen as this gen, if not even higher. And I don't like the idea of spending over $300 for a console, let alone $1000.

 

[quest55720]

So rather than launch at $600 in 2006 and price drop to $400 in...2008, you'd rather Sony sat on the console for 2 years, launch in 2008 at $400, with the competition entrenched? Launching when they did at the price they did meant those willing to pay that got the system they wanted at a price they were willing to pay. For those of us not willing to pay that much, we just wait until the price drops. That caters to everyone.

Launching when they did ment pissing off 95% of thier NA fans. If they could not launch by this fall at 399 or less then they should of just cut out the blue ray drive. The PS3s high price has left a bitter taste in many peoples mouths. Even with the latest price cut the PS3 is still 2x the cost of the Wii totally un acceptable.

 

[Natoma]

Look at third party software sales. They are still bigger on Xbox360 than anywhere else. And $60 games help those third party margins.

To be fair the 360 library is far more mature than that of the Wii or PS3, so one would hope that its sales are still bigger.

Btw, $60 games aren't a reflection of margins. They're a reflection of how much it costs to develop the game.

If a developer can sell a 360 game for $60, and a Wii game for $40, where do you think they make the most margin? The Wii. Significantly lower development costs there than the 360, or PS3 for that matter.

 

[-tkf-]

So far it has been a fiasco of epic proportions.

Epic? I just don´t see epic, and i really fail to see how a guy that posts often here can just blame bluray. Please enlighten us how BluRay made the PS3 fail in "epic" proportions. If you say price, i would recomend going through the other threads were Price was discussed. If you say delayed i would really like a good explanation on how the PS3 would have done any better if launched on schedule with very few games and very few Blu-Ray movies as well

 

[AlphaWolf]

Epic? I just don´t see epic, and i really fail to see how a guy that posts often here can just blame bluray. Please enlighten us how BluRay made the PS3 fail in "epic" proportions. If you say price, i would recomend going through the other threads were Price was discussed. If you say delayed i would really like a good explanation on how the PS3 would have done any better if launched on schedule with very few games and very few Blu-Ray movies as well

How about if it launched 6 months sooner with a DVD drive instead of a BR drive and the system was $100 cheaper.

 

[Eteric]

How about if it launched 6 months sooner with a DVD drive instead of a BR drive and the system was $100 cheaper.

$200 cheaper and we might have a deal.

 

[-tkf-]

How about if it launched 6 months sooner with a DVD drive instead of a BR drive and the system was $100 cheaper.

Maybe you should reread the same threads?

Blu-Ray, WiFi, build in PSU, acceptable noise level, Rechargeable Wireless Adapters, FREE PSN out of the box (worth the extra price alone), HDMI 1.3, Flash Card reader, BC with most PS2 games, 4 USB ports, Web Browser, HOME, SACD playback, CELL, DNLA support, PSP remote play, Linux support, user upgradeable Harddrive.

All the little things cost extra, it´s just not Blu-Ray.

And as other threads also have pointed at, a Blu-Ray drive is an advantage when it comes to games, more space is always good. Besides, what would a 6 month earlier launch have done good, apart from a few launch games, the real meat is just starting to show. It´s going to be interesting to see if it was content or 100$ that made the difference in regards to sales. LBP, Heavenly Sword, Uncharted: Drake's Fortune, R&C, Warhawk, Lair should help us with an answer.

 

[Falkster]

Maybe you should reread the same threads?
...

It´s going to be interesting to see if it was content or 100$ that made the difference in regards to sales. LBP, Heavenly Sword, Uncharted: Drake's Fortune, R&C, Warhawk, Lair should help us with an answer.

Indeed, I imagine it's a lot of both, though I bought one at launch so my perspective is different than those that are waiting/not interested.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Maybe you should reread the same threads?

Blu-Ray, WiFi, build in PSU, acceptable noise level, Rechargeable Wireless Adapters, FREE PSN out of the box (worth the extra price alone), HDMI 1.3, Flash Card reader, BC with most PS2 games, 4 USB ports, Web Browser, HOME, SACD playback, CELL, DNLA support, PSP remote play, Linux support, user upgradeable Harddrive.

All the little things cost extra, it´s just not Blu-Ray.

Most of those are pretty insignificant in comparison to the cost of blu-ray. And if FREE PSN is great why aren't ps3 systems flying off the shelves? Perhaps because to most consumers a lot of those 'extras' are meaningless/worthless.

And as other threads also have pointed at, a Blu-Ray drive is an advantage when it comes to games, more space is always good. Besides, what would a 6 month earlier launch have done good, apart from a few launch games, the real meat is just starting to show. It´s going to be interesting to see if it was content or 100$ that made the difference in regards to sales. LBP, Heavenly Sword, Uncharted: Drake's Fortune, R&C, Warhawk, Lair should help us with an answer.

Sure blu-ray has advantages, but it had a cost, that cost has dug them a big hole and they are sitting a distant third in this round of the console wars. Its pretty easy for developers to delay releasing a title for the ps3 when the unit sales aren't there. If there was a larger installed base, I'm sure there'd be more games.

 

[-tkf-]

Most of those are pretty insignificant in comparison to the cost of blu-ray. And if FREE PSN is great why aren't ps3 systems flying off the shelves? Perhaps because to most consumers a lot of those 'extras' are meaningless/worthless.



Sure blu-ray has advantages, but it had a cost, that cost has dug them a big hole and they are sitting a distant third in this round of the console wars. Its pretty easy for developers to delay releasing a title for the ps3 when the unit sales aren't there. If there was a larger installed base, I'm sure there'd be more games.

If you look at the competitors those extras costs dollars, and it´s not insignificant dollars, unless price doesn´t matter? Worthless is up to the consumer, is CELL worthless in the PS3?

Pretty easy delaying titles? what titles would have been released earlier? i don´t see any of the current AAA titles as delayed games.

Free PSN is worth the extra price over the consoles lifetime, i bought mine at the european launch, and i have been downloading new stuff every week. When my console is 5 years old i have "saved" nice sum.

 

[TheChefO]

If you look at the competitors those extras costs dollars, and it´s not insignificant dollars, unless price doesn´t matter? Worthless is up to the consumer, is CELL worthless in the PS3?

Pretty easy delaying titles? what titles would have been released earlier? i don´t see any of the current AAA titles as delayed games.

Free PSN is worth the extra price over the consoles lifetime, i bought mine at the european launch, and i have been downloading new stuff every week. When my console is 5 years old i have "saved" nice sum.

Those things do cost extra, but I think the point is, Sony knew adding BR would add significant cost, so adding things which have minor cost would elevate the perceived value to the consumer. Hence we end up with a console that costs $600 and has "everything" in the box (sans cable).

If the dicision was made at an early point in the development phase to go with DVD, the ps3 could have been out before xb360. Problem was Sony put all their eggs in one basket. Result is 3rd place. It still bugs me that they could have avoided this issue had they insisted on 1st gen games being dvd based to allow themselves an out if BR failed to catch on quickly.

I was just discussing this today with a friend of mine, if BR doesn't come out of the HD optical wars as the clear winner, this entire fiasco will be a waste. Good news for Sony is it does seem to be coming around for BR. It will be interesting to see how things shape up next year.

Currently, their sales are painting an interesting picture.

I'm curious to see how their npd #s look. If there's any truth to the Dev stating they would start dropping projects if ps3 sales dip below 100k for 3 straight months, this month's results will be interesting to follow.

April ~80k
May ~80k
June ?k

 

[JardeL]

Not official

DS: 561,000
Wii: 381,780
PSP: 290,100
PS2: 270,760
Xbox 360: 198,440
GBA: 113,870
PS3: 98,470

 

[Rolf N]

Market trends

 units (NPD) Mar-2007   diff  Apr-2007   diff  May-2007   diff  Jun-2007
Nintendo DS   508,000  -7.2%   471,000   -10%   423,100   +33%   561,000
PS2           280,000   -31%   194,000  -3.2%   187,800   +44%   270,760
PS3           130,000   -37%    82,000  -0.5%    81,600   +21%    98,470
PSP           180,000  +1.7%   183,000   +16%   212,100   +37%   290,100
Wii           259,000   +39%   360,000  -6.1%   338,200   +13%   381,780
Xbox 360      199,000   -13%   174,000   -11%   154,900   +28%   198,440

Seasonal market size reference:
             Mar-2007   diff  Apr-2007   diff  May-2007   diff  Jun-2007
units       1,556,000  -5.9% 1,464,000  -4.5% 1,397,700   +29% 1,800,550
dollars*       352.6M  -7.5%    326.3M  -1.6%    321.1M   +23%    394.2M

*consumer money spent, not cost, not revenue; system package only.
 [b]Dollar splits are my own guesstimates![/b]
 Assumes 130$ for DS, 130$ for PS2, 250$ for Wii.
 Jan to March: 575$ avg for PS3, 200$ for PSP, 375$ avg for Xbox
               360.
 From April: 180$ avg for PSP (pricedrop to 170$, new bundles)
             600$ for PS3 (EOA for 20GB SKU).
             400$ avg for Xbox 360 (Elite SKU becomes available).
 July: 550$ avg for PS3 (60Gig drops to 500$ mid-month, new 80Gig/bundle)
 August: 525$ avg for PS3

Dollar breakdown is available on request, withheld for peace-keeping
reasons.

Overall market growth is in line with the expectations for a five-week period vs a four-week period. The PS3 underperforms, much more so the Wii, though that can be excused with supply issues, no? XBox 360 performs on par (per-week sales just slightly up from May), ending its streak of sequential declines. The DS is looking good as always. though that's in part due to it coming back out of a 10% (supply?) dip during the prior month.

While the real winners this month are the PSP and PS2, Nintendo continues to dominate market shares. PS3 price-cut timing looks very apt in retrospect. At and below that 1:2 ratio against the XBox 360 (slightly below this month) is where Sony execs really should get nervous.

 

[iceberg187]

Not official

DS: 561,000
Wii: 381,780
PSP: 290,100
PS2: 270,760
Xbox 360: 198,440
GBA: 113,870
PS3: 98,470

Matt C of IGN put it up, it's official.