Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

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According to Timothy Lotte (designer of FXAA et al), he expects next gen to be about 6 times as powerful as 360 is. This is just a tad faster than todays very high end laptop GPUs. I find this quite a small leap, considering a 7+ year leap in technology.

What he said:

Interesting to consider that next console rumors of 6x Xbox360 perf and 2013 launch, is slightly above a the 2012 notebook and at the low-end 2012 PC GPU.
 
I was more thinking of "6x across the board". Not something as meaningless as flops. But I might've been off anyways, as I was thinking of my 6870 as "at least 6x the power".
It would be especially sad and somewhat funny if they'd do something like I've seen done before that they get 3x real-world performance increase from GPU and as much from CPU and they add 3+3 to get 6x increase.
 
Indeed. TDP sounds reasonable too given it will likely be at least partially based on sea islands if it debuts holiday 2014. Peak 7850 TDP is around 100W, leaving 80 to 90W for CPU and the remainder for other peripherals in a 200W budget.

Why should the next generation be locked down to 200Watt, is there some unwritten rule that has to be followed? I think it's unfair to expect and demand the next gen consoles should be competing and maybe even out performing high-end PC's if the power budget is 1/3 or 1/4.

As i said before, if they can keep the noise down and power usage dynamic then a 500 Watt or more console should not be a problem. By dynamic usage i mean that for anything not related to games it shouldn't suck 500 watt, for example Playing Blu-Ray, watching Netflix, using Facebook etc etc..
 
500 watts is high, but 300 or 250 watts in my mind is probably going to happen.

No reason for power usage on PC components to have skyrocketed, but consoles have to stay exactly the same.
 
Yeah I could see 250W-300W since those are physically small in size. In fact the ones for the Shuttle SFF PCs are actually smaller than the external brick of the original 200W X360 PS.
 
morepower.jpg
 
I wouldn't mind my console sucking that much power... as long as it doesn't overheat and isn't louder than my vacuum. It's not as if I play all the time and have to worry about the power bill. My TV uses (when fully lit) 200 Watts, too. My PC under full load even more. But my PC is also MUCH more silent than all current consoles (I built it myself to be that silent, and no, no watercooling).

For all I care, they could release a premium model with better cooling.
 
I think the issue with consoles always has and always will be more about cooling than power draw. It's just that power draw implies a given cooling requirement as (crudely) the more power drawn by a chip, the larger its cooling requirement.

Cooling is a much larger factor as the 300W boxes we got at the beginning of this gen were at the very limits of coolability. Regardless of the physical size of the console unit you ultimately need to get the heat from the chips to the ambient air. Trying to do that with a 500W system would require massive heat transfer area, more power to power the fans required to drive air flow, and a very very large box if your really want to cool such a system reliably and with as minimal noise as you can manage. It's certainly not a trivial engineering feat.
 
Actually the consoles of this gen were far from 300W. Their power supplies were rated at around 200W-ish peak output, they were consuming less than that on full load.
 
Actually the consoles of this gen were far from 300W. Their power supplies were rated at around 200W-ish peak output, they were consuming less than that on full load.

The original PS3 had a 380W power adaptor (although in operation the console had a peak consumption of only around 200W).

That was also around a 5x jump in power consumption compared to its predecessor the PS2. Although I don't expect another jump of near that magnitude this upcoming generation, I don't share the view that we have hit some mythical barrier at 200W.
 
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The original PS3 had a 380W power adaptor (although in operation the console had a peak consumption of only around 200W).

That was also around a 5x jump in power consumption compared to its predecessor the PS2. Although I don't expect another jump of near that magnitude this upcoming generation, I don't share the view that we have hit some mythical barrier at 200W.

Ahh, then I think a 300W console could be quite possible in that case. The systems could be designed to be slightly larger than the original PS3 and still be cooled reasonably, given an external PSU and perhaps some other modifications to the colling system design, although i reckon noise would still be an issue.

A 400W or 500W console however wouldn't be a console anymore in terms of the sheer size of the unit. And would cost the platform holder far too much in cooling system costs, as well as ancilliary costs such as shipping and handling such that the end retail price would be insane, or be sold for too much of a loss that it would make the PS3 seem like a frugal design.
 
Chips that generate so much heat are probably a much bigger cost factor than those couple of 100 grams of extra shipping & copper.

A reasonably sized piece of silicon clocked to kingdom come can produce considerable heat and draw considerable power.

You don't have to have a large chip for it to consume 500W, however naturally you're correct in that it would be the sanest choice if you really were gunning for a 500W system. Although i can't even say that a 500W system is even remotely sane in the first place.
 
Maybe we should come up with what kind of "power" term we are discussing. TDP, PSU Power, Actual usage at AC socket.

PS3 was around 200 watt at the AC, so that would suggest a TDP that was at least 20% lower? So a TDP at around 160 Watt for CPU+GPU

GTX 680 is at 195 TDP 580 was at 244 Watt, both of these was cooled by a fan and a heat sink, most likely a somewhat expensive Heat sink. Add to this the CPU and the PSU's cooling requirements. Now put it in a box.. step 2 cut a hole in the box..

That would be a tiny hot box.. and would require a bit hole.. But i think that with the advances in cooling (a GTX680 can be cooled at reasonable sound leves) more than 160 TDP should be possible.
 
Now put it in a box.. step 2 cut a hole in the box..
step 3 put the box in a closed cupboard ;)


My younger brother once got a bright idea that a way to make an old HDD quiet was to encase it in a wooden box. When I saw it and opened it I got blisters to my hands from the burns. Funnily the HDD itself survived without any problems.
 
Maybe we should come up with what kind of "power" term we are discussing. TDP, PSU Power, Actual usage at AC socket.

PS3 was around 200 watt at the AC, so that would suggest a TDP that was at least 20% lower? So a TDP at around 160 Watt for CPU+GPU

GTX 680 is at 195 TDP 580 was at 244 Watt, both of these was cooled by a fan and a heat sink, most likely a somewhat expensive Heat sink. Add to this the CPU and the PSU's cooling requirements. Now put it in a box.. step 2 cut a hole in the box..

That would be a tiny hot box.. and would require a bit hole.. But i think that with the advances in cooling (a GTX680 can be cooled at reasonable sound leves) more than 160 TDP should be possible.

Agreed, but your GTX 680 @ 195W TDP is only the GPU. You'll also have a CPU to cool that might add anywhere between 20-100W extra TDP. Your cooling requirements are now significantly increased.
 
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