Sony PS6, Microsoft neXt Series - 10th gen console speculation [2020]
- Thread starter Megadrive1988
- Start date
Newer and better tech. It's a natural progression for the Microsoft Windows PC ecosystem so it's natural to extend it to Microsoft console ecosystem. I think they really want a rolling generation.
Megadrive1988
Veteran
Yes, and I would say, that IF we do go down the route of mid-gen consoles again, in 2023/2024, the main draw for them would be greatly increased ray tracing performance over the base consoles, with Zen 4 or Zen 5 CPUs and RDNA 4 GPUs
It would not be for pushing 8K.
It would also allow Sony to do 60fps versions of all their big games, with ray tracing at 4K.
That said, I'd still prefer there to be no mid-gen consoles and we go straight to PS6 and Future Xbox in late 2026. All the software ecosystems and your services/games will just roll right onto the new hardware easier than ever.
Small visual returns for that though.
Megadrive1988
Veteran
Imagine what Sony would be able to show in mid 2026 in terms of CG quality graphics running real-time at 1920x1080 on PS6 with next-gen raytracing and physics at 60fps. With 2.5 times the CPU compute (16 cores @ 4.5+ GHz)
5x the GPU TFLOPs - 32 to 48 GB HBM4 @ 2.4 to 3.6 TB/sec bandwidth.
That would be just insane.
Then scale that 1080p image up to 4K using machine learning / AI, or use 1440p and AMD's equivalent to DLSS 5 or whatever) to get a near 4K image.
Native resolutions will never be important again. It will be about the density of the worlds devs can create, with significant use of ray tracing in some next-gen Ray+Raster rendering model.
5x the GPU TFLOPs - 32 to 48 GB HBM4 @ 2.4 to 3.6 TB/sec bandwidth.
That would be just insane.
Then scale that 1080p image up to 4K using machine learning / AI, or use 1440p and AMD's equivalent to DLSS 5 or whatever) to get a near 4K image.
Native resolutions will never be important again. It will be about the density of the worlds devs can create, with significant use of ray tracing in some next-gen Ray+Raster rendering model.
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HBRU
Regular
Me yes [emoji2]Out of curiosity....have we ever been close with our predictions?
link please
HBRU
Regular
I find not confusing you. I find confusing the names MS choose for the consoles
HBRU
Regular
Yes. Sony needs more RAM bandwidth IMHO. A 2023 ps5pro@5nm can adopt a wider RAM bus (or faster RAM modules)... be smaller in size, less power hungry and maybe quieter. Also 2 TF of SSD and improved RT are welcome.
Megadrive1988
Veteran
Proposed PS5 Pro specs (Fall 2023)
HP 5nm or 4nm EUV TSMC process. (plenty of capacity, mobile products will have moved on to 3nm)
Chip 1: Zen 4 CPU 8c/16t - at 4.7 GHz (locked) + AMD RT co-processor unit(s)
Chip 2:: 76 RDNA 4 CUs - at 2xx GHz clock speed (locked) for ~20-24 ~TF (sustained)
RAM : 24 GB HBM3 at 1.2 TB/s (2048-bit bus, fine grain access with virtual 64-bit/32-bit/16-bit lanes) shared between CPU die and GPU die. This version of HBM3 will be tweaked for access granularity closer to that of GDDR6 compared to current HBM2/HBM2E offerings
Main GPU is discrete, but isn't itself divided into chiplets.PS5 Pro does not have to use a chiplet configuration at all (even though it still could) it could be a more traditional console configuration of 1 CPU die +integrated stuff (in this case, an RT co-processor) and 1 GPU die + integrated stuff. Basically how consoles used to be before the PS4/Xbone generation.
HP 5nm or 4nm EUV TSMC process. (plenty of capacity, mobile products will have moved on to 3nm)
Chip 1: Zen 4 CPU 8c/16t - at 4.7 GHz (locked) + AMD RT co-processor unit(s)
Chip 2:: 76 RDNA 4 CUs - at 2xx GHz clock speed (locked) for ~20-24 ~TF (sustained)
RAM : 24 GB HBM3 at 1.2 TB/s (2048-bit bus, fine grain access with virtual 64-bit/32-bit/16-bit lanes) shared between CPU die and GPU die. This version of HBM3 will be tweaked for access granularity closer to that of GDDR6 compared to current HBM2/HBM2E offerings
Main GPU is discrete, but isn't itself divided into chiplets.PS5 Pro does not have to use a chiplet configuration at all (even though it still could) it could be a more traditional console configuration of 1 CPU die +integrated stuff (in this case, an RT co-processor) and 1 GPU die + integrated stuff. Basically how consoles used to be before the PS4/Xbone generation.
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Seriously what's up with this fetish of having some separate "RT processor" close to CPU? Why on earth would RT acceleration ever be moved out of GPU?
This wasn't the first time I read such here
Andrew House said PS4 Pro was created because they didn't want more people migrating to PC because the base hardware gets quite old easily.
Social media will also promote Xbox Series X winning on all 3rd party games performance and might sway enough people even though Sony's first party might have better reception.
I think there will be a PS5 Pro.
Firstly, that remains to be seen.
Secondly, the potential difference will be so minimal, less than Xbox One X to Pro, that one can very easily argue that this will not actually sway anyone other than DF pixel counters. It didn't help the X, why would it have an impact now?
I'd like to see more creative efforts to really move the needle vs just off the shelf parts with a software wrapper on them.
From a graphics perspective, RTRT should be commonplace and not the exception.
For gameplay, a major advancement in AI for NPC's is sorely needed. The NPC world needs to adapt on the fly to the environment. For example, having a major fight in a town and 5 seconds later the citizens are picking flowers and asking how your day is, should not be accepted as "ok" just because the fight was well done or the NPC has nice tits.
From a graphics perspective, RTRT should be commonplace and not the exception.
For gameplay, a major advancement in AI for NPC's is sorely needed. The NPC world needs to adapt on the fly to the environment. For example, having a major fight in a town and 5 seconds later the citizens are picking flowers and asking how your day is, should not be accepted as "ok" just because the fight was well done or the NPC has nice tits.
The Pro generation may not have been particularly compelling from a technical perspective but it's been important for reputation management and margin recovery.
XB1X has indeed not led to massively increased sales for MS but it has stopped the bleeding of the "XB1 900p" meme even if the maligned XB1S will actually outlive the XB1X in production, MS at one point believed "good enough" gaming as part of an overall value package would drown out the objections of the gaming focused crowd but XB1 showed that wasn't the case. Instead what we saw was that crowd were very influential in forming the opinions of the broader consumer base and the message they were spreading was "XB1 is weak" combine that with the $100 premium at launch and well XB1. XB1X stopped that now DF analysis will typically read XB1X > PS4 Pro > PS4 > XB1S and everyone shrugs, that is better than them running out to produce another batch of XB1 shaming GIFs and has allowed them to reset the conversation to start one where the actual console is increasingly almost peripheral to their streaming focused vision without being besieged by pitchfork wielding gamers. MS are still so wary of this crowd they are essentially launching two devices, one a silicon monster to shut them up and another device very clearly aimed at "good enough" gamers who can be tempted by the promise of streaming, I'm fascinated by this new box, is it to be a midpoint between XBSX -> XBSS -> XB1S or will they go balls out make it a fancy thin client and go XBSX -> XB1S -> XBSS
For Sony the Pro has been pure margin harvesting, we are now at the end of an 8 year console cycle and Sony is still selling consoles at launch prices, this is genuinely remarkable. Yes the PS4 Pro features a larger chip but I feel very confident that the marginal cost of production of a Pro over a standard PS4 is a lot less than the $100 cost difference at retail. For this reason alone there is no reason not to do another mid life refresh and for it to be the exact same kind of marginal improvement, it can't be dramatic or demand significant additional coding overhead or all your partners will hate you so bunging additional GPU cores and some mild clockspeed bumps fit the requirement of compatibility and capability nicely. Moving to HBM in particular is out for the time being the greater capabilities of such a system would be too disruptive next to a non-HBM junior system imo, every technique HBM would enable would be incompatible with the base PS5.
Edit: Oh and they've confirmed (via a controller manual) that the new new box is to be the Xbox One Series S, wtf MS do you have to choose letters that sound almost identical? I predict a retail bloodbath circa 0900 December 26th 2020 as thousands of angry parents attempt to return XB1S for XBSS or XBSS for XBSX
XB1X has indeed not led to massively increased sales for MS but it has stopped the bleeding of the "XB1 900p" meme even if the maligned XB1S will actually outlive the XB1X in production, MS at one point believed "good enough" gaming as part of an overall value package would drown out the objections of the gaming focused crowd but XB1 showed that wasn't the case. Instead what we saw was that crowd were very influential in forming the opinions of the broader consumer base and the message they were spreading was "XB1 is weak" combine that with the $100 premium at launch and well XB1. XB1X stopped that now DF analysis will typically read XB1X > PS4 Pro > PS4 > XB1S and everyone shrugs, that is better than them running out to produce another batch of XB1 shaming GIFs and has allowed them to reset the conversation to start one where the actual console is increasingly almost peripheral to their streaming focused vision without being besieged by pitchfork wielding gamers. MS are still so wary of this crowd they are essentially launching two devices, one a silicon monster to shut them up and another device very clearly aimed at "good enough" gamers who can be tempted by the promise of streaming, I'm fascinated by this new box, is it to be a midpoint between XBSX -> XBSS -> XB1S or will they go balls out make it a fancy thin client and go XBSX -> XB1S -> XBSS
For Sony the Pro has been pure margin harvesting, we are now at the end of an 8 year console cycle and Sony is still selling consoles at launch prices, this is genuinely remarkable. Yes the PS4 Pro features a larger chip but I feel very confident that the marginal cost of production of a Pro over a standard PS4 is a lot less than the $100 cost difference at retail. For this reason alone there is no reason not to do another mid life refresh and for it to be the exact same kind of marginal improvement, it can't be dramatic or demand significant additional coding overhead or all your partners will hate you so bunging additional GPU cores and some mild clockspeed bumps fit the requirement of compatibility and capability nicely. Moving to HBM in particular is out for the time being the greater capabilities of such a system would be too disruptive next to a non-HBM junior system imo, every technique HBM would enable would be incompatible with the base PS5.
Edit: Oh and they've confirmed (via a controller manual) that the new new box is to be the Xbox One Series S, wtf MS do you have to choose letters that sound almost identical? I predict a retail bloodbath circa 0900 December 26th 2020 as thousands of angry parents attempt to return XB1S for XBSS or XBSS for XBSX
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D
Deleted member 11852
Guest
This was the case for most of the 360/PS3 generation, which only saw Sony close the gap and has been the case since 2017 when Xbox One X launched. The number of people chasing console performance at any cost seems small - the greater market were happy with consoles with the equivalent of 2013 launch model specifications. Sony are still selling millions a month today and I'm sure Microsoft are shifting a fair few Xbox One S units.
I do not understand why Microsoft have such a hard time selling consoles to people. Is if because of Windows 95, Windows ME and Windows Vista and Windows 8? Because if so, it's time to let that grudge go!
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