Switch 2 Speculation

[Mihailjones]

I am really curious what nVidia can bring up for the successor of the Switch. Obviously data management will be a big thing for next-gen and while I don't expect anything close to XBSX/PS5 levels of performance in a hybrid device, Nintendo won't be dismissing these developments completely I am pretty sure. UFS 3.x would be a start.

I would be really surprised if "switch 2" would be even at level of PS4 original. current switch is like 10-15% of PS4 performance, and nintendos philosophy is to sell "the slowest, cheapest and lowest quality hardware for highest possible price"

If they would fund a custom SoC with modern mobile cpu+gpu, I'm sure they could make really powerful machine that have decent battery life. Even around when switch were released there were as fast or faster phone chips I think, at least if they would have had similar cooling system.

If I remember correctly, some Apple SoCs already surpassed ps4 og last year on GPU performance and CPU even earlier?

Only hope to get fast and modern portable gaming console is if Sony wants to make new one, as they have great engineers and will use modern tech or fast tech, like vita had. Vita is in many aspects more modern system than switch (software/OS features + some hardware related stuff)

If switch 2 comes, I guess it is around Xbox one perf, unless it is home system, then it could be something between ps4 og and pro

 

[fehu]

I know that's not a popular metric, but some common snapdragon soc already reach higher TF than PS4 OG.
To go lower they must do it on purpose

 

[PSman1700]

Phones are getting rather well specced, s20 ultra comes with 16gb’s of ram, same amount as next gen consoles. Think apples has nvme also. No idea how the cpu compare but i guess a13/sd865 are long ways from zen2, let alone zen3.
At just 10TF gpu its modest but i assume light years ahead of mobile phones still.

 

[Karamazov]

Yeah but LPDDR5 ram speed is no match against GDDR6

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Always, always, always apply the laws of thermodynamics to understanding mobile parts. There's no way they can get the power of a 200 watt console in a 5 watt mobile device. They are using the same binary, transistor based technology, so they can't do anything different to PC or console architectures. Whatever peak performance they may get, it'll throttle down to something sustainable on a small battery without any active cooling. They may be able to gain a technological advantage in being able to use more expensive tech, but that can only take them so far.

 

[stiftl]

I would be really surprised if "switch 2" would be even at level of PS4 original. current switch is like 10-15% of PS4 performance, and nintendos philosophy is to sell "the slowest, cheapest and lowest quality hardware for highest possible price"

In docked mode this is definitely possible. 768 to 1024 CUDA cores would be sufficient to reach this goal (depending on the frequency).
In handheld mode closer to XBoneS then.

If they would fund a custom SoC with modern mobile cpu+gpu, I'm sure they could make really powerful machine that have decent battery life. Even around when switch were released there were as fast or faster phone chips I think, at least if they would have had similar cooling system.

They will have to, as there is no stock solution as has been written before, but I guess it will be heavily based on Orin (with obviously reduced unit count).
8 A78 cores at 1,5-2,0 GHz and a GPU as described above would be a quite competent offering I would say, especially if it comes with DLSS capabilities through the tensor cores.
The big question mark for me is RAM, bandwidth to be more precise.

 

[AlNom]

A single GPC of Ampere could be interesting (16SM / 1024 ALU / 64 ampere Tensor cores, 5MB L2), < 1/8 GA100 size (826mm^2, 7nm).

@ 1GHz (for example)
2TF FP32
64 TOPs INT8 / 128 TOPs sparsity -> enough for some sort of DLSS (2060+ level)

Power consumption might be difficult to gauge though...

 

[stiftl]

A single GPC of Ampere could be interesting (16SM / 1024 ALU / 64 ampere Tensor cores, 5MB L2), < 1/8 GA100 size (826mm^2, 7nm).

@ 1GHz (for example)
2TF FP32
64 TOPs INT8 / 128 TOPs sparsity -> enough for some sort of DLSS (2060+ level)

Power consumption might be difficult to gauge though...

Yeah, something like this, would be interesting to see how Ampere's power consumption reacts to lower frequencies.
Anyway, I think on 5nm such a setup wouldn't be too far fetched.

 

[orangpelupa]

In docked mode this is definitely possible. 768 to 1024 CUDA cores would be sufficient to reach this goal (depending on the frequency).
In handheld mode closer to XBoneS then.


They will have to, as there is no stock solution as has been written before, but I guess it will be heavily based on Orin (with obviously reduced unit count).
8 A78 cores at 1,5-2,0 GHz and a GPU as described above would be a quite competent offering I would say, especially if it comes with DLSS capabilities through the tensor cores.
The big question mark for me is RAM, bandwidth to be more precise.

indeed. Docked with proper cooling and power supply would alllow way faster perf.
Btw
Is it economical to make the dock equipped with eGPU? So nintendo wouldnt need to make/use SoC that scales really well in perf/TDP.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Is it economical to make the dock equipped with eGPU? So nintendo wouldnt need to make/use SoC that scales really well in perf/TDP.

You'll add that cost to the dock. Very worst case, you're looking at the price of two consoles for one console with a fancy dock. It depends how much they add to the dock and what they reuse in the handheld.

 

[eastmen]

You'll add that cost to the dock. Very worst case, you're looking at the price of two consoles for one console with a fancy dock. It depends how much they add to the dock and what they reuse in the handheld.

Would be better as an additional option I'd wager. however it would take a bit more work to support it.

 

[milk]

You'll add that cost to the dock. Very worst case, you're looking at the price of two consoles for one console with a fancy dock.

The price of 2, for the performance of 1 undocked and 1.5 when docked, after you take the inneficencies of multi-gpu into acount.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

It's Wattage and Temperature cap on mobile. Since Nintendo was using off-the-shelf parts, they had to fix a low clock because neither wattage nor temperature limits can create a consistent behaviour.

Yes but Nintendo is using a chip that was developed in 2013 / 2015, and with that baseline in place it wouldn't make sense to adapt new power distribution technologies to Mariko.

For the most recent chips from apple, qualcomm, samsung, huawei etc. I thought there were already using dynamic power distribution between GPU and CPU as methods to maximize efficiency.

I'm guessing @Nebuchadnezzar would be someone who probably knows this.

 

[orangpelupa]

Yes but Nintendo is using a chip that was developed in 2013 / 2015, and with that baseline in place it wouldn't make sense to adapt new power distribution technologies to Mariko.

For the most recent chips from apple, qualcomm, samsung, huawei etc. I thought there were already using dynamic power distribution between GPU and CPU as methods to maximize efficiency.

I'm guessing @Nebuchadnezzar would be someone who probably knows this.

Huawei use that and they market it as GPU Boost or something.
Qualcomm let manufacturers decide to use that or not (custom kernel developers also can add that feature in)
dunno with apple

 

[eastmen]

Whatever they do , I hope the new switch can play the older games with significantly longer battery life.

I have a switch but could get a switch 2 if its powerful enough. Unless one of the other players come out with something better

 

[Frenetic Pony]

Honestly, GPU wise a Switch 2 at the level of a PS4 is zero problem, in theory. Early benchmarks spotted from Samsung's upcoming partnership with AMD already puts that chip ahead of what would be needed to match a PS4, the newest chip from Apple's supplier Imagination is supposed to put out above the PS4's. CPU wise the newest ARM CPUs are also a match for the old and disappointing when released Jaguar cores found in the PS4 and Xbox One.

Frankly it'd be no problem for a really cutting edge Switch 2 to perform at, or over, the older consoles. Newer parts, especially designed for mobile, are just far more power efficient than anything from those days. The power systems alone are crazy, with multiple voltage domains and sleep patterns on individual parts of each processor, not just to each processor. But that's assuming Switch 2 ends up with "cutting edge", which I kind of doubt. It's not like Nintendo was even interested in pushing the first's chip or form factor, and that's selling amazingly well. So it's not like they have a huge motivation to do so this next time either.

 

[AlNom]

Honestly, GPU wise a Switch 2 at the level of a PS4 is zero problem, in theory. Early benchmarks spotted from Samsung's upcoming partnership with AMD already puts that chip ahead of what would be needed to match a PS4, the newest chip from Apple's supplier Imagination is supposed to put out above the PS4's. CPU wise the newest ARM CPUs are also a match for the old and disappointing when released Jaguar cores found in the PS4 and Xbox One.

What's the context on that? If it's for iPad Pro, then that's already a big difference from what Switch 2 would presumably be, particularly for sustained performance/power consumption.

For instance, my estimate earlier was more or less assuming docked, and even then it may still be too much power compared to current docked Switch (<20W?). I suspect it won't be that easy when it comes to sustained gaming loads.

 

[Karamazov]

a portable device with the power of PS4 is no problem, a switch 2 at 300€ ? not a chance.

 

[milk]

Honestly, GPU wise a Switch 2 at the level of a PS4 is zero problem, in theory. Early benchmarks spotted from Samsung's upcoming partnership with AMD already puts that chip ahead of what would be needed to match a PS4, the newest chip from Apple's supplier Imagination is supposed to put out above the PS4's. CPU wise the newest ARM CPUs are also a match for the old and disappointing when released Jaguar cores found in the PS4 and Xbox One.

Frankly it'd be no problem for a really cutting edge Switch 2 to perform at, or over, the older consoles. Newer parts, especially designed for mobile, are just far more power efficient than anything from those days. The power systems alone are crazy, with multiple voltage domains and sleep patterns on individual parts of each processor, not just to each processor. But that's assuming Switch 2 ends up with "cutting edge", which I kind of doubt. It's not like Nintendo was even interested in pushing the first's chip or form factor, and that's selling amazingly well. So it's not like they have a huge motivation to do so this next time either.

They might not have motivation to go cutting edge, but if they stay with Nvidia, they'll have to comission a custom chip fron them, and at this point they might as well build something at least moderatly of this time.

And I find it likely that they'll stick with Nvidia, since the rumors were that Nvidia went to nintendo before Switch with the spear-headed intent to secure a console maker. They probably still want to mantain that one foot planted in the console field, specially after the switch proving to be b commercial success.

 

[Frenetic Pony]

a portable device with the power of PS4 is no problem, a switch 2 at 300€ ? not a chance.

Again, yes. OLEDs cost money, 5g modems cost money, 5000mah batteries that can fit in a phone and charge at 28 watts, cost money. The chipset itself? Nah, it's fine. An AMD 450, dual core Jaguar, gets only 33k on Antutu; the relatively low cost Qualcomm 768g gets 10x that. So even counting the consoles 4x as many cores, the CPU power is still there. Other benchmarks are similar, and it's not like the Switch even needs something like that SOC. Qualcomm charges too much and they don't need a 5g modem, ARM CPUs are cheap.

As for GPU, that's a lot harder. The iphone 11, the current champ, only delivers about 330 max fps on T-rex offscreen. While the roughly equivalent to a PS4 7850 hits 410 fps. However, hypothetically Imagination's upcoming new GPU arch can match the PS4. And if this benchmark is to be believed then AMD, and one would assume Nvidia, could match it at 181fps in Manhattan, 20 above a 7850, and the Switch 2 would have a higher TDP to do it in.

As for what a SOC costs? That's a more interesting question about what Nvidia would charge, but the SOC is going to be smaller than a non mobile console SOC, so less than a hundred. As for the whole thing, a Pocophone F1 costs $320 at retail for a solid phone that had high end specs when it was released. So why couldn't a Switch 2? The supply chain for mobile parts has gotten insanely efficient and low cost thanks to the rabid increase in phone sales over the years (this year excepted for obvious reasons). So it's not unreasonable to think the Switch 2 could do it, whether it will I have no idea.