Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [pre E3 2019]

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Shifty Geezer said:
They were explicitly stated that the PS5 had these. Nowhere does it say, "PS5 has an SSD." Everyone thinks it does when they read it, but when you really look at it, it doesn't and only implies heavily. But what's shown could be achieved by a cache. Might be a 64 GB flash cache between HDD and RAM. Might be a 1 TB SSD. Might be a 256 GB SSD and a large HDD. We don't know.
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"What took 15 seconds now takes less than one: 0.8 seconds, to be exact.

That’s just one consequence of an SSD"

I think the statement is very clear. The reporter does'really need to write a sentence such as "PS5 has an SSD". Since 0.8 sec loading time is consequence of an SSD, if PS5 doesn't have a SSD why 0.8 sec is the consequence of an SSD?

But I agree that the SSD solution is not mentioned, and we don't know if there is a HDD.


https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-2019-sony-next-gen-playstation-5-spec-analysis

Eurogamer reported a rumor of 1TB SSD. It seems more reasonable than a cache because users can install several games completely into the 1TB SSD. If just using a small cache then the console needs to read huge data frequently from slow HDD, which causes slow loading when fast switching between different games.
 
RDGoodla said:
435.2 GB/s x 40 GFLOPs per GB/sec = 17.41 Tflops
435.2 GB/s x 50 GFLOPs per GB/sec = 21.76 Tflops

He may mean that PS5 RAM bandwidth can meet the requirement of a 17.41~21.76 Tflops GPU.

It's not that surprising since RTX 2080 only has 448GB/s bandwidth.
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I'm fairly confident that's not what they meant.
 
mpg1 said:
A the only one skeptical of this 1.8GHz number?..

Seems ridiculously high for a console....
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No, I'm skeptical of it as well considering Vega 7 boosts to 1750 MHz and is already using 7nm.

The PS4 @ 28nm HPM has 800 MHz GPU clock. Compared to that the PS4 PRO @ 16nm FF has 911 MHz GPU clock which is only an increase of 13%. The Xbox one clocks with 853 MHz @ 28nm HPM while the Xbox One X clocks with 1172 MHz @ 16nm FF, which is a increase of 37%.

The same desktop parts clocked higher then their closest console GPU counterparts and I doubt that changes with the next consoles. I expect 1500 MHz at most. In fact leaning more towards 1400 MHz. Unless Navi is AMDs Maxwell (efficiency) and Pascal (clocks). The 1060 boosts to 1709 MHz while keeping the power draw relatively low.
 
Laniakea said:
Unless Navi is AMDs Maxwell (efficiency) and Pascal (clocks). The 1060 boosts to 1709 MHz while keeping the power draw relatively low.
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Well we know that power usage was a priority for them with Navi. Couldn't that chip be the rumoured top spec next gen Xbox?

Will say that the possibility of a 1.8 GHz clock has got me optimistic about the potential GPU ability of next gen consoles and possibly a good sign for the Navi desktop part if that clock is possible in a console APU.
 
RDGoodla said:
"What took 15 seconds now takes less than one: 0.8 seconds, to be exact.

That’s just one consequence of an SSD"

I think the statement is very clear. The reporter does'really need to write a sentence such as "PS5 has an SSD". Since 0.8 sec loading time is consequence of an SSD, if PS5 doesn't have a SSD why 0.8 sec is the consequence of an SSD?

But I agree that the SSD solution is not mentioned, and we don't know if there is a HDD.


https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-2019-sony-next-gen-playstation-5-spec-analysis

Eurogamer reported a rumor of 1TB SSD. It seems more reasonable than a cache because users can install several games completely into the 1TB SSD. If just using a small cache then the console needs to read huge data frequently from slow HDD, which causes slow loading when fast switching between different games.
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Cerny refused to elaborate what the implementation is. He only implied it's faster than a pc ssd, and that it's a different implementation in terms of the full I/O path. The journalist interpreted this as an ssd.

So all we know is that there is a certain amount of solid state storage, and we know it is implemented in a different way than a pc, his laptop, or the ps4. He gave example of all three not providing the extreme performance that the ps5 implementation does. So he differentiated the result without giving any specifics about the implementation.
 
DieH@rd said:
Interview with the journalist that visited Sony, got the presentation from Cerny and written that PS5 article.
Sony called Wired, they were not provoked into the collaboration [for example, if Wired got early leaks from devs with devkits]. Sony just wanted to start the talk about the PS5.
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Interesting part is that he asked Cerny why now, why the interview. He said they just sent out a lot of devkits, and they wanted to stay ahead of the leaks.

Meaning we should get credible leaks now. :devilish:
 
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And the extreme cynics could say the maximum 2.5 GB of data read could have already been loaded in the extra ram PS5 has since even the One X could.

Fortunately we dont have extreme cynics here, just realists.
 
anexanhume said:
I try not to crosspost between forums, but I felt this was important to share. This is regarding the reddit rumor saying PS5 will have HBM2.

Another interesting point to make regarding this rumor is that TSMC actually consulted with Sony (among others) during the development of InFO_MS, which would make Sony familiar with it and probably in the back of their mind when developing consoles. I'd also like to point out that Sony is not a stranger to being inventive with memory. The Vita had a special packaging method in use to get very high bandwidth to the Vita's GPU.


Also, let's assume for a second there was a typo in the original rumor, because it doesn't quite make sense as it is. It says:





Which doesn't make sense. Typically when we talk about GPUs, we talk about GB/s per GF/TF, not the other way around. However, 40GB/s per GF would be a stupidly low number, so let's now assume they meant TF. We need a second part of the comment for future information





1.6Gbps per second would result in 409.6GB/s in a 2-stack config. 1.7Gbps bumps it to 435.2GB/s, which is competitive with 256-bit GDDR6 solutions. If we're now assuming the 40-50 GB/s per TF is valid, this gives us a range of 8.7TF to 10.875TF for PS5.


Finally, regarding my skepticism around HBM2 supply, some key things have happened since Samsung's comments about low capacity. SK Hynix and Micron have both entered the market in full force (after the latter abandoned HMC development). And the crypto market crashed. With DRAM and NAND markets easing up, that capacity has to shift somewhere.


Regarding HBM pricing, it's hard to know much it has eased over the past few years (we do have some Vega VII rumored costs for reference), but I think it may be possible to get it down to less than 50% more than GDDR6 per GB, perhaps even just 35% to 40% higher. When you consider that they just need 8GB instead of 16GB of GDDR6, their solution is extremely cost competitive. At that point, it becomes a lot more attractive. HBM is also done on contract pricing (i.e. not floating with market costs), so a big order from Sony locks that factor in and sets up a mutually beneficial relationship with that partner to help them build up their own capacity.


The only rumor around this giving me pause is the digitimes rumor that stated ASE will do the packaging. Other than that, a lot of this rumor makes sense the more I dig into it.


Also, I imagine if that PS4 rev mentioned is coming, it's definitely this Fall. Since it's a console rev, it may not get cracked open to confirm the 7nm EUV from Samsung part, but the timing makes so much sense with MS pushing costs down with the SAD model and the rumored E-revision of the device internals.


Finally, here's the rumor in its entirety for posterity:
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Someone helpfully pointed out I wasn’t considering DDR4 bandwidth on top of HBM. That puts you in the 10.7 to 13.4TF realm.
 
BRiT said:
And the extreme cynics could say the maximum 2.5 GB of data read could have already been loaded in the extra ram PS5 has since even the One X could.
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Didn't he mention how developers use splash screens and things like that to mask loading? Can't remember now. If he did it speaks about a game booting faster also which means it's in the fast storage to start with?
 
A hint from Cerny is when he said he could put an ssd in the ps4 that cost as much as the whole ps4 and it would be one third faster. Another hint is that everybody asking him for an ssd knew it was impossible. It implies he found a solution which didn't break the bank, it implies an ssd would cost too much. He mention the software stack and I/O techniques being the key. All of it is really pointing much more to a caching flash and not a full 2TB ssd.
 
BRiT said:
What is Reasonable Ranges?
Reasonable speed of mechanical drive from 2013: 100 MB/s
Upper end of Mechanical drives from 2013: 150 MB/s
Extreme end of Mechanical drives even now: 200 MB/s
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There are no need to speculate about "reasonable ranges" when we know the actual ranges.
https://www.psdevwiki.com/ps4/Harddrive
PS4 HDD has random read speed of ~40MB/s [sequential is not that useful for games, since they load lots of small files], and devs even have to take in account that users can put crappier drive into the console.

Insomniac talked about Spidey storage streaming limitations at this years GDC [that 40MB/s limit really pushed them to re-configure a lot of their tech]. https://www.gdcvault.com/play/1026496/-Marvel-s-Spider-Man


I presume that many devs arround the world cheered when Cerny confirmed SSD. Even if it was not "top of the line" SSD, it would still introduce big change.
 
72CUs @ 1,5-1,6GHZ would achieve that rumored 14 TFlops. Given how TSMC/AMD are reporting 2x density @7nm and Sony past aproches (18cu for 28nm, 36cu for 16nm) i would say it's nothing that outlandish. Nvidias and tsmsc work with huge dies might pushed up a little whats considered safe for a die and going widest possible is even requied for such tdp limited device.

Re; Gonzalo discusion. Aside whats true or not in decyphering. Timeframes in which samples appeared and given historical precedents (subor soc, also socropio and pro samples/leaks about one year before launches ) would support nicely march launch from other rumors.
 
Interview with the journalist that visited Sony, got the presentation from Cerny and written that PS5 article.

Sony called Wired, they were not provoked into the collaboration [for example, if Wired got early leaks from devs with devkits]. Sony just wanted to start the talk about the PS5.
 
Xbat said:
Well we know that power usage was a priority for them with Navi. Couldn't that chip be the rumoured top spec next gen Xbox?

[...]
Click to expand...

If we assume the same 37% increase in MHz that Microsoft got when moving from a 28nm Cape Verde/Pitcairn GPU to a 16 nm Polaris GPU then we would get 1605 MHz. If we include the improvements to clockability that Vega 20 received, and assume that Navi is even better and got more efficient, then maybe 1800 MHz is possible.

I'll stay in the ~1400 MHz camp for now, though.

btw: in the pc space we already have boost clocks whereas consoles run at fixed clocks (I assume for predictablity so developers know what to expect). Could the next gen consoles maybe use boost clocks as well? For example Sony or MS guarantee a sustained clock of let's say 3 GHz for the CPU and 1400 MHz for the GPU if everything is under full load. But if the CPU is not fully loaded the GPU gains headroom and can clock higher and vice versa?
 
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