Middle Generation Console Upgrade Discussion [Scorpio, 4Pro]
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I haven't seen this. Can you link to a PR statement where the relationship between Scorpio and Xbox One is being represented as being different from that between PS4 Pro and PS4?
Xbox One launched at $499, was inferior spec-wise to the competition and bundled in a peripheral that many were completely disinterested in. It's not crazy to think that Scorpio, launched 3 years later with much better hardware and with better support for the 4K TVs many have upgraded to in the last few years could match those sales. I'm not predicting that, but I don't think you could say it can't possibly happen.
Several points;
4k not a major seller, far more 1080p sets out there
Price is king - $150 more than the Pro (and likely more at launch) - we can see today PS4 outsells a much better VFM proposition
The Pro Launched at the same price of the PS4 - not $50 more
Scorpio will be launching mid gen, but charging a new gen price - with next gen 2/3 years away
At $550 it is not going to outsell MSs fastest selling console ever.
How many consoles did XB1 sales in its first year?
That's one way to see it.
Another is it's a new gen machine selling at a new gen price.
2/3 years from now will ms have a next gen machine, or just another new gen one?
I don't see them breaking the ecosystem, and just how much more performance above and beyond Scorpio will there be in 2/3 years ? Both those need to happen for me to consider it next gen.
Hmm, interesting. Ideally a good time to flip the argument to see the rebuttals, not sure where I'm headed.
Something to consider is how long Sony wants to keep a generation around. They only just stopped making PS3s globally around now. That's a long time.
PS4/XBO are not yet 4 years old yet. I can't imagine them lasting a whole 10 years, they launched with pretty anemic hardware.
One needs to account for a transition period too, and that period (since we're on the same architecture) could last a lot longer than before (I think it took about 2-3 years for developers to stop releasing PS3/PS4 titles).
There might be a PS5, in 2/3 years, but there's no hardware feature there it will contain that for the most part won't be shared with PS4 (assuming they stick with AMD).
With the massive user base of PS4, why would developers all of a sudden cut support for PS4 just because PS5 is out. You've got this massive user base on PS4/Slim/Pro -- why would developers all of a sudden cut all that out and push PS5 only? I expect there to be even during PS5, a lot of developers cross developing for 5 and 4/Pro for quite a long time. If this is the argument against Scorpio this should also apply here, even if Sony wants to clean break generations. I mean, we've been discussing that we're on track for PS4 to possibly meet Wii/PS2 success right? How can you possibly release PS5, and feel like that whole population is going to move forward in 2/3 years. There's an issue here with PS4s success as odd as it sounds.
not that many
1 million in pre-orders, 1 million in black friday. Maybe 5 million?
D
Deleted member 11852
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Not impossible but exceedingly unlikely. Holiday 2013 saw a massive pent up demand to replace the consoles that launched in 2005, 2006 and 2007 - dependant on console and region. Is there a massive pent up demand to replace Xbox One and PS4? I don't see the conditions of the market later this year being anything like that. There needs to be a compelling reason for the mass market to buy a new console, which is why PS4 Pro is not outselling PS4. Why should it when PS4 is getting absolutely fabulous games? It's designed to appeal to that small subset of PS4 owners who will pay for better performance.
True. And there's also the fact that the Xbox One S is going to still be around and will probably be a more compelling option than the 360 was against the One when it launched. The One came out of the gate with so much baggage that Scorpio won't have to overcome, though. With so many factors to weigh, so much yet to be revealed, and the only prior precedent having such a small sample size at this point, I just don't feel any of us can speak definitively on what the potential sales could be. At best, maybe you can set an upper and lower bound. Does anyone even feel confident predicting what the Pro will have sold by the end of it's first year? I don't.
yes I know, x1, ps4 & pro no longer have exclusives.
I don't subscribe to that line of thinking personally, and I don't think that will matter as much as people think moving forward.
quality of experience is different, even if only talking graphics and frame rate for example
The were far more SD sets than HD sets when the 360 and PS3 launched. 4K adoption is actually occurring at a faster rate. Some may say it's because 4K is cheaper and quickly replacing 1080p as standard. But let's not forget that the "flat" in flat TVs also served as a major motivation for purchase last gen.
IMHO people need a reason to upgrade more than just prettier graphics, the (main) advantage seems to be that anyone upgrading from XBO can just swap out the box, but new games get gamers salivating for the new tech
Not quite sure what your point is because that was a new gen, people were buying for the new games not just an upgrade to the same games (and even then the jump was bigger then). FWIW the 360 core came with a composit lead because it was early days for HD (component).
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At least we can readily assume that Scorpio will get most third party titles just with more and prettier pixels.
The Xbox OG wasn't as popular or as widely supported as the 360 or Xbox 1. Some very prominent third party IP was late or MIA on the OG. Going into the gen, u couldn't count on the 360 being as widely supported as the PS3. There was no guarantee that all the most popular third IPs would end up on the 360. The 360 spent its first year being readily outsold by the ps2 and had to stuff the channel during the holidays just to flaunt being the first to 10 million.
Outside what the 360 could do performance wise, if you bought during launch, you were buying the 360 on hopes and dreams.
What was the point of mostly buying the 360 for the games the Xbox OG wouldn't have, if you couldn't be sure you would get all the big third party IPs that we were all sure were bound to make their way to the PS3? If the Scorpio is able to WOW with graphics and that's a big if, who cares about ports available to xb1. Usually during the first year, most exclusive new gen titles are nothing to write home about, most titles are multiplats with last gen support and there are a slew of titles released that don't support next gen.
RancidLunchmeat
Veteran
I don't see any future MS console (including and beyond Scorpio) not being backwards compatible. So the previously held ideas about console generations will either change, or apply only to Sony.
The Scorpio will have exclusives, we know that. Right now they are saying they are limited to VR exclusives, but that "mandate" from MS will change as well as enough time passes just like every other "mandate" from MS has evolved as the market has evolved.
MS just didn't want to crush the sales of it's not-even-released-yet XB1S, and sales of the S have proven their mandate to have been an effective one in getting customers to buy the S. If anybody thinks the S will be able to play all non-VR games throughout the Scorpio's life cycle, I've got some Snap.Inc stock I'll sell you at a great price.
The Scorpio will have exclusives, we know that. Right now they are saying they are limited to VR exclusives, but that "mandate" from MS will change as well as enough time passes just like every other "mandate" from MS has evolved as the market has evolved.
MS just didn't want to crush the sales of it's not-even-released-yet XB1S, and sales of the S have proven their mandate to have been an effective one in getting customers to buy the S. If anybody thinks the S will be able to play all non-VR games throughout the Scorpio's life cycle, I've got some Snap.Inc stock I'll sell you at a great price.
I think they have learned a lesson from the x1 launch.
that being seen to force the market didn't go over very well. Even if the market ends up going that direction.
so let people first get used to multiple tiers first, then exclusives later on.
why be seen to rush and force it when 99% of games would've been made to run on both anyway.
From my fuzzy memory Halo was a big buying factor, but we're talking the here and now anyway....and in that regard Halo has less of a draw than ever and Xbox lack true exclusives, all you're left with is power (as we know price is as good as a no no).
I don't think Sony will be any different. I think Sony and MS are headed to the same destination on two slightly different paths.
Its funny how much we hold marketing with such contempt because untruths and exaggerations but we ourselves will take a few choice sentences or words here and there and wrap whole narratives around them. Just because Sony still believes in "generations", it doesn't mean Sony will adhere to previous definitions and that it will continually break BC going forward. MS choice words doesn't mean that the "Xbox one" brand will be affixed to all its consoles going forward and BC is a given.
MS and Sony aren't carbon copies of each other and don't look at the market the same way so I'd expect that their marketing messages to be different even with the same goals.
For me there will still need to be 'generations' or what we will have is a PC - like 'chaos' where a box will list all the machines it will work on and we'll have scenarios where some games work but others don't and, frankly, a mess.
This isn't so much an issue with PCs because of the market understanding the 'complexity' of the various options, but for consoles buyers expect a simple 'plug and play' and devs will not be wanting to support more than 2 or 3 consoles at a time so at some point there will need to be a generational 'marker' of some type (IMO)
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