I never read your post. I tried to read this thread and couldn't because it sucks. I have noticed a general skepticism to new technologies, and this seemed like as good a place as any to share that link. People complain about every change in tech. Analog people were resistent to digital, DOS and Norton Commander people were resistant to Windows, VHS people were resistent to DVDs, people didn't want cellphones, people didn't want smartphones, people didn't see the point in touchscreens before the iPhone was able to have apps, the iPad is just a big iPhone without the phone so no one will buy it, the Wii was garbage and no one would buy it ... Kinect and PS Eye might not end up being successful. I'm just not sure why some people are so dismissive, especially when it looks like the same kind of nay saying I've seen a million times before.
Business Approach Comparison Sony PS4 and Microsoft Xbox
- Thread starter BRiT
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I never read your post. I tried to read this thread and couldn't because it sucks. I have noticed a general skepticism to new technologies, and this seemed like as good a place as any to share that link. People complain about every change in tech. Analog people were resistent to digital, DOS and Norton Commander people were resistant to Windows, VHS people were resistent to DVDs, people didn't want cellphones, people didn't want smartphones, people didn't see the point in touchscreens before the iPhone was able to have apps, the iPad is just a big iPhone without the phone so no one will buy it, the Wii was garbage and no one would buy it ... Kinect and PS Eye might not end up being successful. I'm just not sure why some people are so dismissive, especially when it looks like the same kind of nay saying I've seen a million times before.
In that case, I apologize if I came across as harsh. I actually agree with you entirely. Kinect and PS Eye have potential. I just had a hard time placing the post in context, and I messed up. I'm sorry if I caused offense.
No - I'm saying they all have IR, including the HDMI switch. So if you can control 3 IR devices, I have to reduce the number required to turn my TV on from 5 currently (TIVO Box, Cable Box, Receiver, HDMI Switch, and Television) down to 3. If Kinect can control all 5, then I wouldn't have that problem.
I don't know that I agree with this. Microsoft went with an arrangement they thought would fit "most" households. I expect they have some sort of market research to back that up, so I am willing to concede that. But as most AV receiver manufacturers learned a long time ago - there is no "Typical" setup for a home theater. On the high end, most devices these days are controlled via RF - so that devices can be placed in cabinets and are out of the theaters themselves. Mid-range like mine generally have a mix of devices. I like nice equipment, but can't afford to buy it all at once. So I buy things one at a time. My receiver was purchased almost 10 years ago. HDMI was not yet mainstream, but I bought one of the best available so it would last a while. I just upgraded my front speakers, but my sub-woofer is nearly 12 years old. I think many "mid-range" setups can end up with a fairly exotic set of devices like mine for the same reason.
Cable companies also play into this. My current cable company is actually quite nice. I can just use the receiver and TIVO. For my last one, I had to have a digital decoder, a cable receiver, and the TIVO box. Basically, if you want to use their DVR you are fine. If you don't, setup gets extremely complicated.
We can also talk about multiple console households, households with dedicated DVD / BluRay / or Audio devices, or even households that use HPC machines. While any given segment won't make up a large portion of the population, when you start to combine all these little groups they add up.
This is where I think the real disconnect is. The claim was the XBox One obviously has more value because it has these features. I am pointing out that this only matters if the features are actually useful. In other words, people are saying I should pay $100 more for an XBox so it can be the center of my living room. Except it can't. So it does reduce the value for the XBox One in my case.
Likewise, my current headset is a BlueTooth headset. That gives the PS4 value - because the PS4 means I don't have to change my current headset. I also own a PS Vita. That means I can play my games remotely through the Vita. This also adds value for me. Note that I understand that it doesn't add value for everyone. If you don't own a PS Vita, then the remote play feature on the PS4 doesn't hold any value for you.
My original post was just pointing out that you cannot claim the XBox One intrinsically has more value because it has Kinect. Just like you can't claim the PS4 intrinsically has more value because it has better hardware.
New Tivos have RF and also IR for use with IR remotes, supposedly.
However, my understanding is that to use most Tivo features, you need the remote anyways.
Kinect may be able to change channels but with a DVR, you may spend most of your time watching recordings, not live TV, except for things like sports.
However, my understanding is that to use most Tivo features, you need the remote anyways.
Kinect may be able to change channels but with a DVR, you may spend most of your time watching recordings, not live TV, except for things like sports.
I think the HDMI switch may be the only actual outlier. You could probably get by by not turning either your TiVo or cable box off and just controlling the other three. Fancy setup you have.
I think that the "most households" argument and thus my standard deviation argument is most likely. I think its more likely that people also send their other HDMI devices in through inputs 2-5 instead of an HDMI switch. Of course the Xbox One has been available for not 2 months yet so this may be a feature set that they upgrade in the future if enough of the market requests it (like media center extender capability.)
Agreed. i recently went from having my own discrete netgear router to just using the integrated wifi/router provided by the Cable co. Works just as well honestly.
Thats not exactly what I said. If it came across that way thats not what I meant. I said that MS price to their value proposition and Sony priced to theirs. I find that there is actually a disparity in hardware capability with the addition of the HDMI in and Kinect with IR/Camera/and voice that is not replicable easily anywhere else including the PS4. It just inst possible. That simple fact makes the XO's value proposition worthwhile because nothing I can add to the PS4 can account for those missing capabilities. I'm willing to accept the (eventual??) visual gaming disparity that may occur in the future because i cannot easily get an integrated audiovisual experience to fast switch between, web, stream, tv, and gaming anywhere else.
So when others tell ME the Xbox One ISNT worth the $100 premium, people who havent yet experienced how seamless and well thought out the Xbox One experience is in that regard, I balk. I at no time ever dispute that the PS4 isnt worth its $399 price. Yet even if the Xbox One were $399 also, there are some who would say it isnt worth it UNLESS it did not have Kinect.
Agree.
Agree here too. Im sure there will be mechanisms which allow Xbox one to compete with this capability in the future... the strongest of which is through smartglass. Heres one reason why: Smartglass will not tie users into any extra pruchases (like Vita Hardware) to make this happen. Whatever mobile device hardware and ecosystem you currently prefer there either is or will be a Smartglass application that will probably support remote play. That seems like a fantastic future option and capability. We have to wait and see I guess.
I think we sussed that out further up. Cheers.
Well in some cases some of these newer technologies were indeed good. Some others are just proof that people DO overspend for "garbage"
My 360 Kinect is one of them
Well in some cases some of these newer technologies were indeed good. Some others are just proof that people DO overspend for "garbage"
My 360 Kinect is one of them
I probably got my money's worth out of Kinect 360, but there's no doubt that there was precious little software for it.
My main point in posting that article is probably best exemplified by this quote
This business thread is going nowhere. I don't believe anyone here can accurately predict how successful PS4 and Xbox One will be over their 5 - 10 year lifecycle, especially not when the basis for that judgement is what they can do at this moment. They're going to change over time. Most of what they do is software, not hardware. When the iPhone launched, it didn't even have apps. Look at it now. When the 360 launched it had a totally different interface and lacked features like party chat and apps for Netflix. Kinect didn't exist until well into its lifecycle.
This thread might make sense in two to five years when we can look at things in hindsight. Right now, people may as well be spinning for answers on a wheel of fortune. How do you judge a business approach at the start of a race when the product is a marathon, not a sprint?
I'm jumping on this thread just now, but I wanna sell the case of the nay sayers, all the people on the examples mentioned were half right. Abandoning DOS for the first few interations of windows was a terrible idea. The thing only became trully usefull with 95. So if you bough Windows 2, oh boy, sorry, go buy 95 now to get all the things you were wishing 2 did in the first place. Buying a DVD when it was a new tech, was a waste of money since you'd have to make do with a pretty shitty catalogue of movies for the first years. By the time good stuff was readily available on DVD and easily accessible, guess what, there are newer DVD players for half the price of yours that work better.
First iPhone looked like shit as soon as 3G popped up. When 3Gs came, it became close to useless. Now the iPhone 4 (matured enough) only starting trully feeling obsolete after the iOS redesign made it too slow. But that took much longer to become obsolete.
The truth is, being a day one consumer of any new tech is usually a waste of money. I haven't bough next gen consoles yet, cause I wanna be a smart ass and wait for their first price-drop, but I sure consider giving up on that often, because I'm an gaming enthusiast and I get a hard on thinking of these next gen graphics (even knowing by experience that what is on offer right now is pretty underwhelming compared to what will come in 2015 and so on)
If I was REALLY smart, I would still be playing the extensive catalogue of games from ps2, xbox and gc aquired for crazy cheap during the last 7 years, and only now would be buying a ps3 and 360 for an equally low bargain. A cousing of mine is doing just that, and he is pretty satisfied to live this way. He went to buy a ps3 last week!
That's what I do for pretty much everything. I buy cars this way, phones this way, TVs this way, etc... Even clothes I prefer to buy used (but that's because they just look cooler anyways) I don't wanna be a the forefront of technology, because whatever is middle ground today, would have been pretty much top of the line 5 years ago, sometimes ONE year ago...
Games are the only exception because I really enjoy the thing. They are the one hobby that make me say "ok, I accept being a fool with this" but I know I'm being a fool.
Now if someone tells me they are not television remote control enthusiast who are willing to pay hundreds of bucks to be an early adopter of an immature tech with hypothetical potential for turning on your media center and controlling the volume of your devices with voice control, man I find it hard not to find that reasonable.
An Xbox One makes sense if you just can't wait to put your hands on Ryse or Forza 5. It's still a lot of money to play lauch games that will look ridiculous in 1 and a half year, but understandable if you are a hardcore games. The extra media features of xbox are a nice bonus, but don't justify the extra 100$ vs PS4 if that is the only difference between the two consoles for you. I just can't comprehend someone being a hardcore media center controller and paying a premium for THAT...
You're kind of proving my point though. We don't know what xbox one and ps4 are going to be like two years from now, or five years from now. A lot can change and a lot of people are going to be buying later. Predicting their success based on what you like or don't like about them now is basically impossible. It'll be interesting to see how this turns out in hindsight, and that can probably lead to more interesting discussions about business strategy. Right now, it's just a lot of hot air blowing around.
DuckThor Evil
Legend
If one contestant shows up to the line looking weaker (Hardware), overweight ($) and is not a favourite (Worldwide) in the begin with, I'll put my money on the other guy regardless of the running distance.
Your approach of saying nothing or claiming Impossibru! brings little of worth to the table. Imo this thread makes sense today when the game is still afoot. Where is the fun in hindsight? If you don't like speculation and want to rely on hindsight, then do so, but don't expect everyone to follow.
D
Deleted member 11852
Guest
This is absolutely true but I would be astonished if either Microsoft or Sony have a business strategy that, except in very broad of technology terms, extends more than 12-24 months. For example neither company know what the other will do, definitively, with regard to game exclusives, Kinect, the Sony Camera, Sony's VR technology, and any of these can change product appeal and sales in ways that are impossible to predict.
There won't be a single strategy, each company will transition from one strategy to another to find what best works for any single period. So this is a discussion that can be had early on, then continuously develop over the life of the consoles but I agree that until some solid numbers appear, it's entirely speculative.
I don't know about Microsoft but SCE's quarterly statements are usually published at the end of the month following the close of the quarter so detailed figures for 2012 probably won't be available until the end of this month and even then, Sony are under no obligation to separate PS4 unit sales from PS3 and/or Vita and/or PS2. Although they probably will if they think they've outsold Microsoft.
I agree. A speculation thread is going to be full of ideas that won't happen - it's just a thought exercise. The best speculation will try to find some evidence to support it rather than just be a pie-in-the-sky guess as that gives something to discuss.
We've had speculation on what the business strategies would be prior to launch. We now have it shortly after launch. The discussion will progress, the theories change, as the years roll by. It'd be a shame not to have such discussions just because they aren't in the high percentiles of accuracy. Anyone who considers the prediction folly is free to avoid the debate. Personally I'm not a fan of business and sales types discussions because of the variables, and I typically won't be drawn into predictions, but I'll still challenge a view or piece of evidence as part of the discussion.
Bigus Dickus
Regular
I bought a DVD player for $800 very early in the technology's life. Didn't even have component outputs, much less digital. Yet even at the time of purchase there were all the new releases I wanted to see, and it provided a great picture at the time with digital surround sound that was miles ahead of VHS. My theater was a gathering place for friends with that player at its core for years. I still have that player, use it in a kid's room, it works great, sounds great, and plays all the new releases I can run down to the redbox to rent. That's over 15 years of value to me. Worth every penny and then some.
Dunno, maybe you should have used svhs or laserdisc for an example??
And I owned an iPhone 3g. Don't know why you used that as an example? Maybe you meant the original iPhone? Mine might have been slow by today's standards, but it was infinitely faster to look up something on my phone at night than getting out of bed, walking down to the computer room,.booting up my PC if nor already on, logging in and looking up whatever, then walking back to bed. Especially since I didn't want to get up. Loved the visual voicemail. Replaced my iPod for all mp3 duties and many video duties. Played games on mame. And I'm not an apple junkie, been on android since that phone. Again, terrible example.
And I used windows 3.1 for quite a while at home. Later, even did some part time work at a company using 3.1 combined with novell for networking. A kludge by today's standards but it worked. And at home, was way more user friendly than dos.
Sure, early adoption carries a price. Certainly monetary. But the products aren't always shit and quickly obsolete as you claim. Sometimes sure. That's a risk you take. But you make it sound like early purchasers of an xb1 or ps4 will have obsolete hardware in a year. Of course they won't.
Dunno, maybe you should have used svhs or laserdisc for an example??
And I owned an iPhone 3g. Don't know why you used that as an example? Maybe you meant the original iPhone? Mine might have been slow by today's standards, but it was infinitely faster to look up something on my phone at night than getting out of bed, walking down to the computer room,.booting up my PC if nor already on, logging in and looking up whatever, then walking back to bed. Especially since I didn't want to get up. Loved the visual voicemail. Replaced my iPod for all mp3 duties and many video duties. Played games on mame. And I'm not an apple junkie, been on android since that phone. Again, terrible example.
And I used windows 3.1 for quite a while at home. Later, even did some part time work at a company using 3.1 combined with novell for networking. A kludge by today's standards but it worked. And at home, was way more user friendly than dos.
Sure, early adoption carries a price. Certainly monetary. But the products aren't always shit and quickly obsolete as you claim. Sometimes sure. That's a risk you take. But you make it sound like early purchasers of an xb1 or ps4 will have obsolete hardware in a year. Of course they won't.
You would of lost your money last gen. The Wii had the weakest hardware. Barely a upgrade on the previous gen hardware, yet came within $50 of the 360 core. And only sold 25 million units sold the previous gen and gave the 360 a year's worth headstart.
Who knew the Wii would be last gen leader in terms of sales? Who knew that the PS3 and 360 would eventually overtake the Wii in terms of demand after the Wii ran off 50 million in unit sales in 2.5 years even before its first price cut? Who would thought that the Wii U would have practically no traction with its predecessor's userbase?
Last gen broke the mold, I don't think anyone can readily predict the console market going forward.
But I agree with both you and Shifty. We don't predict to be right, we predict to entertain ourselves in our discussions. Prediction accuracy is hardly necessary. One can even say that if the market was highly predictable, our discussions on the future wouldn't be all that engaging.
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I think you're looking at later products rather than real bleeding edge tech. In my observations and experience, I regard all new techs as pants and they don't lead to anything worth having for a decade or so. So in the case of DVD, it was laserdisc that was the real innovator, and early adopters of the new tech got a fairly raw deal. Those who waited for the second iteration of optical storage tech, DVD, to come along got much better from their investment. VR headsets have been pottering along for ages, but we may have a real winner in Occulus Rift with all the prototyping of prior pioneering, failed attempts and modern tech managing to solve it (and we may see multiple headset solutions too). Like tablets - iPad needed a whole host of different computing devices to come before it before a really good tablet paradigm could be developed. Early adopters of HDTVs got shafted with poor quality and lack of connectivity. Those who waited until the standards were established got themselves decent TVs that'd last them for the current round of technologies.
Kinect was cool, but didn't really provide a great deal. Same with EyeToy in some ways. Kinect 2 may make the difference, or may not. It might be another 5/10 years before we get niche, novelty experiences to become a mainstream, high-value, ubiquitous tech. But it's certainly a rule I live by that there's no point buying the latest, greatest idea unless it's proven itself or you've money to burn, because typically nothing lives up to the hype or promise. Like Leap motion. Great in theory, didn't deliver. Wait five years and there'll be something comparable that works well and delivers on the aspirations of the original inspiration.
This.
If VR-Technology takes off from Oculus and Sony, wouldn't Kinect/PSEYE be somewhat obsolete? The VR-Headset would handle all of the "realtime reality" interactions between gamer and system, along with the voice commands with the integrated mics. So, essentially making Kinect/PSEYE more relegated to TV/AV remote duties, than gaming needs (if VR-Technology takes off).
Not at all. Headsets are a feedback mechanism, a replacement for TVs. They don't replace input. In a VR world, full body tracking will be a key contributor to emmersion. That's perhaps when Kinect will come into it's own. If, for example, Sony has a headset with a standard controller input, the next Elder Scrolls will look incredible but control like every other version. If MS follow with their own headset or Occulus support, their game will have you waving your arms for magic and fighting with sword and shield, and ducking and dodging. Okay, that's not at all realistic. I don't think either console has the grunt to make VR work really well and think it'll be a PC tech until some new console (Nintendo perhaps??). But it's a case that illustrated the contribution hands-free control will make to remarkable game experiences and really nerdy looking game players pratting about in their living rooms.
I agree that if you want to just have fun with it, then go ahead. Even with "evidence" it's still going to be a pie-in-the-sky guess. The thing is, what I've seen in this thread doesn't look like a lot of fun being had. It looks like people are taking their predictions very seriously.
