Next-Gen iPhone & iPhone Nano Speculation

[wco81]

Yes, but you are alienating the other half (those who are willing to pay for more) if you keep the phone at 3.5" for another year while everyone else is moving to larger and better resolution high end models. Apple used to manufacture the phone that was the most expensive and best in all regards. Now the customers who have no limit in money to spend (corporate users) are looking for better alternatives. Apple cannot stay out of the market that has the biggest profits. If they want to keep losing their market share, they have to have more than one sized phone model at the market. There's huge demand for both a smaller and a larger iPhone currently. The customers will choose another brand if the iPhone is too small or large for their needs. I personally love the software quality of iPhone, but that's not enough for me to keep buying products that do not suit my needs otherwise.

I'd still like to see data showing that these super phones with big screens sell in large volumes.

Sure Android has a large market share but a lot of volume goes to phones that are as low as 99 Euro unlocked and without contract. These phones with large screens are 500 Euro or more, meaning they cost as much as or more than the iPhone. Are they moving in comparable volume? iPhone is the best-selling model in a lot of markets. Maybe combined they exceed iPhone sales?

Or is it that these flagship models get a lot of attention but relatively low volume of sales while the bulk of the sales go to boring, low-budget ZTE and Huawei models?

 

[sebbbi]

Seems to be quite a lot of "I personally want this hardware feature, and Apple will totally fail in the market unless they deliver it" going on in this thread. Just saying.

Nobody has said that Apple will totally fail. They will not. I have only been saying that if Apple offered more different products, it would be easier for them to keep/gain their market share. We are all different, and we have different needs. A single product will never please every single customer. If you aim for huge market share, you need to address as many customer segments as possible.

I do not talk just about personal preferences. Yes, I personally want a phone with a big screen, but I know a lot of people who have different needs. For example my wife is adamant that she needs a phone with a physical keyboard. Many women I know prefer smaller phones, even iPhone 4 is too big for their taste. I think iPhone 4 is a good trade off, it sits nicely in the middle, but Android phones are no longer unfinished products with laggy user interfaces and low battery life, and they come in all favors and sizes. The "single size fits all" iPhone can be a trade off for many consumers. The better the competition becomes, the smaller the chances are they are going to pick a phone that doesn't perfectly fit their needs. Other phones of course have their own trade offs as well, such as having more limited application (and game) marketplaces and harder to use user interfaces. But Google is spending all their resources in upgrading their OS in a fast pace, and it seems to be a good strategy as their market share is rising rapidly.

Or is it that these flagship models get a lot of attention but relatively low volume of sales while the bulk of the sales go to boring, low-budget ZTE and Huawei models?

Yes, you need a flagship model to boost your brand. To show that you are the best and most technologically advanced company in the field. In the history of computing devices, this strategy has been a really successful one (lots of low end CPUs & GPUs have been sold with this strategy, because the company has had the top model).

And Galaxy S2 has been selling like hot cakes, and it comes in 4.3" and 4.5" favors. And in here it costs around 50 euros more than iPhone 4, so I bet Samsung profits on it are pretty good.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

I'd still like to see data showing that these super phones with big screens sell in large volumes.

http://crave.cnet.co.uk/mobiles/samsung-galaxy-s2-hits-10-million-sales-50005339/


Tha Galaxy SII has been selling approx. 2.5 million a month. Add up the sales from equivalent Android superphones (+4", hich-clocked single-cores or dual-cores) from Motorola, HTC, LG and Sony-Ericsson and I'm pretty sure you'll get quite a significant volume.
My guess is the total amount easily surpasses the amount of iphones being sold.

 

[wco81]

I've heard that Samsung and HTC are profitable but that Motorola, LG and Sony-Ericcson are not.

Apple sold like 20 million iPhones in the last quarter so about 6.6 million a month. Are there other Android superphones coming close to the Galaxy S II in volume? I've heard that only Samsung and HTC are profitable among the Android manufacturers.

 

[ltcommander.data]

I've heard that Samsung and HTC are profitable but that Motorola, LG and Sony-Ericcson are not.

Apple sold like 20 million iPhones in the last quarter so about 6.6 million a month. Are there other Android superphones coming close to the Galaxy S II in volume? I've heard that only Samsung and HTC are profitable among the Android manufacturers.

http://mediacenter.motorola.com/Pre...es-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results-3770.aspx

Well Motorola is operating at a loss as of the most recent Q2 and their shipments in the entire quarter were 4.4 million smartphones and 440,000 tablets or what Apple does in 2-3 weeks in smartphones and a few days for tablets.

http://www.sonyericsson.com/cws/cor...edetails/q2financialpressrelease2011-20110715

Sony Ericsson is also operating at a loss in Q2. They shipped 7.6 million phones of which 70% of sales were smartphones. The latest rumours are that Sony Ericsson is about to be dissolved with Sony buying out their portion and bringing smartphone development in house.

http://www.bgr.com/2011/07/27/lg-re...-sales-mobile-biz-grows-still-not-profitable/

LG similarly operates their mobile division at a loss.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

I've heard that Samsung and HTC are profitable but that Motorola, LG and Sony-Ericcson are not.

Apple sold like 20 million iPhones in the last quarter so about 6.6 million a month. Are there other Android superphones coming close to the Galaxy S II in volume? I've heard that only Samsung and HTC are profitable among the Android manufacturers.

Profits doesn't mean volume...

I don't have any hard numbers except for samsung's Galaxy S2 announcement.
But let's just look at the available superphones (4"+ screens, 1GHz+ Cortex A8/Snapdragon or dual-cores) in the market right now:

- Samsung Galaxy S2
- Samsung Galaxy S1
- Samsung/Google Nexus S
- Samsung Droid Charge
- Motorola DROID 3
- Motorola Triumph
- Motorola Photon
- Motorola ATRIX
- Motorola DROID BIONIC
- Motorola DROID X
- Sony Ericsson Xperia PLAY
- Sony Ericsson Xperia Arc / Arc S
- LG Thrill
- LG Optimus 3D
- LG Optimus Black
- LG Optimus 2X
- LG Revolution
- HTC Sensation / XE
- HTC DROID Incredible 2
- HTC EVO 3D
- HTC EVO 4G
- HTC Incredible S
- HTC ThunderBolt 4G
- HTC Inspire
- HTC Desire HD


Among the 27 available models, even if they all sell, in average, 1/10th of what the Galaxy S2 sells, then we're nearing the 9 Million a month of superphones.

Truth is, 3.7" models are being extint, in favor of 4" or larger screens.

And AFAIK, all Android manufacturers (except maybe LG, but that may not be related to the smartphone industry) are raising both their volume and profitability, thanks to the now absent Nokia.

 

[ltcommander.data]

http://www.appleinsider.com/article...smartphone_despite_growing_iphone_5_hype.html

I don't know if this helps any, but this lists the top 3 selling smartphones for each US carrier. The iPhone 4 and iPhone 3GS tops the chart where it's offered, but 4G phones dominate top-selling Android models. That seems to indicate either the iPhone 4S, iPhone 4, and iPhone 3GS are going to grab the top spots across 3 carriers or Apple really missed the boat by not including 4G and a shake up is about to occur.

 

[wco81]

If they introduced LTE support with vastly inferior battery life to the previous iPhone how would that have gone over?

Today Sprint announced they're switching from WiMax to LTE, starting in 2012 with the transition/LTE buildout completed by 2013.

AT&T's LTE network is nonexistent and I don't believe there are significant LTE deployments outside the US yet.

So LTE doesn't have great urgency yet.

 

[silent_guy]

That seems to indicate either the iPhone 4S, iPhone 4, and iPhone 3GS are going to grab the top spots across 3 carriers or Apple really missed the boat by not including 4G and a shake up is about to occur.

Considering that 30% of iPhone 4 users think they already have 4G, I don't think the lack of it is going to make a big difference. (Cfr HDTV owners watching SD content but praising the vastly increased quality.)

I'm sure there will be cases where having LTE is going to make a material difference in experience, but I'm pretty happy with AT&T speed as is. It's not too much lower than my ADSL line at home when I get a good signal. I think most users will feel the same.

 

[Arun]

BTW, I'm very surprised Apple didn't make a bigger deal out of receive diversity. In weak signal conditions combined with Qualcomm having slightly better performance than Infineon, 2x throughput is genuinely very realistic here even on a saturated network, independent of the higher 14.4Mbps peak rate. It won't help if the basestation is backhaul-limited, but it's still a big deal.

 

[silent_guy]

Relevant:
http://dcurt.is/2011/10/03/3-point-5-inches

 

[metafor]

Relevant:
http://dcurt.is/2011/10/03/3-point-5-inches

I've noticed this since moving from my iPhone to my Sensation. It is an annoyance but one I'd happily trade for the larger screen real-estate.

Having to slightly swivel the phone in my hand to reach the upper corner is not something that'll cause me to use my phone less; having the not-made-for-smartphone website crowd the screen with a login prompt that -- when I try to enter a field in landscape -- can only show the keyboard and not the text I'm typing, caused me to use the phone a lot less.

Mileage may vary but the article's claims of "well, this one chosen point where a 3.5" screen is better is a clear sign of 'what makes an Apple product and Apple product' and shows clear foresight" is ignoring the benefits of a 4.3" screen.

Some people want that trade-off.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Relevant:
http://dcurt.is/2011/10/03/3-point-5-inches

Oh great, another "it has to be perfect because it's from apple" baseless opinion!

He thinks iphone's measures are based off a 57mm radius because that's how far the thumbs get... Wait, are the guy's thumbs the size of a 3 year-old or is he just thinking like one?
The thumb's active movement range starts in the metacarpus, its radius of movement from the palm on any non-defficient adult is well above 80mm.

And to make matters worse, he actually draws a smaller half-circle for the GS2.
So now the big question: does his thumbs retract when he's holding an Android or does it get bigger when he's holding an iphone?


He has "realized another huge downside of larger screens"? Using Google Maps with a 4.3" screen is "extremely difficult and frustrating"?
More like he's found another excuse for calling his iphone "perfect" until apple releases an iphone with a 4" screen...
Like the higher-than-480*320 resolution before it. And video-calls, and a decent camera, and 3G, etc.



It's really creepy to see how far some people downright deprecate their reason and judgement ability because of a corporate-driven fanatism...

 

[ltcommander.data]

Having to slightly swivel the phone in my hand to reach the upper corner is not something that'll cause me to use my phone less; having the not-made-for-smartphone website crowd the screen with a login prompt that -- when I try to enter a field in landscape -- can only show the keyboard and not the text I'm typing, caused me to use the phone a lot less.

Isn't this partially a combination of screen size and resolution? If Apple just increased the screen size, everything would just be bigger, but it wouldn't actually show more. Either Apple would have to increase resolution or they'd have to make a custom UI for large screen 960x640 phones where they use fewer pixels for the UI compared to existing small screen 960x640 phones.

http://www.macrumors.com/2011/10/07/att-alone-sees-200000-iphone-4s-preorders-in-first-12-hours/

In any case, it appears iPhone 4S sales are brisk. AT&T announced 200,000 pre-orders in just 12 hours and Sprint is sold out of the 16GB model. In comparison the iPhone 4 had 600,000 pre-orders around the world across all carriers for the full 24 hours of the first day.

More like he's found another excuse for calling his iphone "perfect" until apple releases an iphone with a 4" screen...

I agree I doubt thumb radius was foremost on Apple's mind when they choose the screen size. Everyone has different thumbs sizes and Apple targets all age groups and both genders with one device so it's difficult to find a golden screen size. Aspect ratio, bezel size, curve chassis, etc. would also factor in.

It should be noted though that he has switched to Android. He's contrasting it to his previous iPhone, not making accusations while sticking his head in the iOS sand.

 

[rpg.314]

You can froth at this piece as much as you want. The reality is iPhone's screen is in range of a large majority of adult population's thumb.

For >4" phones, for quite a significant share of adult population, it's not the case.

If the "sheep" actively pretend that thumb-gap doesn't exist should Apple release a >4" phone, then you have a case. Else you don't.

FWIW, I think having a screen within thumb range is quite important.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

I agree I doubt thumb radius was foremost on Apple's mind when they choose the screen size. Everyone has different thumbs sizes and Apple targets all age groups and both genders with one device so it's difficult to find a golden screen size. Aspect ratio, bezel size, curve chassis, etc. would also factor in.

You can froth at this piece as much as you want. The reality is iPhone's screen is in range of a large majority of adult population's thumb.

For >4" phones, for quite a significant share of adult population, it's not the case.

If the "sheep" actively pretend that thumb-gap doesn't exist should Apple release a >4" phone, then you have a case. Else you don't.

FWIW, I think having a screen within thumb range is quite important.

Right..

So let's go back to the big question:
In your opinion, do his thumbs retract when he's holding an Android or do they get bigger when he's holding an iphone?

It should be noted though that he has switched to Android. He's contrasting it to his previous iPhone, not making accusations while sticking his head in the iOS sand.

That's probably a lie to try making that post into something near believable.
Just check the rest of his blog and you'll see another apple-adoring post about the voice commands (something that'll probably wear off as soon as people realize how ridiculous they feel when talking to an inanimate object... as they did back in the 80's) and a post about how he hates an android tablet commercial.

 

[rpg.314]

Right..

So let's go back to the big question:
In your opinion, do his thumbs retract when he's holding an Android or do they get bigger when he's holding an iphone?

The difference in radii of the two sweeps shown could simply be because of different scale employed in the two photographs. I don't know if the two pictures are using the same level of scale.

That's probably a lie to try making that post into something near believable.
Just check the rest of his blog and you'll see another apple-adoring post about the voice commands (something that'll probably wear off as soon as people realize how ridiculous they feel when talking to an inanimate object... as they did back in the 80's) and a post about how he hates an android tablet commercial.

Here you are responding to ltcommander.data's post, while you are quoting me as having said those words. I never said any of that.

I think you should edit your prior post and remove my reference in the last bit that you have quoted.

 

[silent_guy]

Oh great, another "it has to be perfect because it's from apple" baseless opinion!
...
It's really creepy to see how far some people downright deprecate their reason and judgement ability because of a corporate-driven fanatism...

Uhhuh, Totz is off his meds again.

 

[dZeus]

Oh great, another "it has to be perfect because it's from apple" baseless opinion!

<cut>

It's really creepy to see how far some people downright deprecate their reason and judgement ability because of a corporate-driven fanaticism...

I agree fully with you! Whenever Apple is mentioned, your posts reek of fanaticism which translates into hate/despise of Apple.

P.S. I have a 3.5" touch-screen phone (NO it's not an Apple) and I wouldn't want to have a bigger screen. These new phones like the Galaxy are just ridiculously big. Makes me think of 15" or bigger notebooks... what's the point if you want to carry them around a lot? Just extra baggage... If I want a big screen, I'd get a tablet.

P.P.S. I hate my touch screen. My next phone is going to be a slider phone with a big screen if they make them. Text input with T9 and physical keys is just so much more faster than a touch screen.

 

[hoho]

You can froth at this piece as much as you want. The reality is iPhone's screen is in range of a large majority of adult population's thumb.

For >4" phones, for quite a significant share of adult population, it's not the case.

How many adults are there whose hands are the size of kids? Or to put it another way, how many people would be left out if the screen diagonal would grow by half an inch, an inch?

I don't have that big hands but judging how easily I can cover the whole 4" screen of my current phone I can easily imagine myself using a 5" one without too much problems. Yeah, I might need to slide it in my palm a bit to reach the opposite corners but I was doing that already with my previous 3.5" one.