NVIDIA Maxwell Speculation Thread

According to Zauba, there a two GM108 packages:
- 23x23 mm 595 pins (picture)
- 29x29 mm 908 pins (picture on NVs site)

The latter one seems compatible to GM107, so OEMs can use booth chips on the same PCBs (GM108 only with 64-bit).
 
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3-4 months should be more realistic. But the possibility is high that GM200 is pin-compatible to GK110/GK210, so the PCB designs are ready.

Maybe you can buy GM200 on some >$2k Titan at the end of '14.
 
This kind of shipping data with detailed contents is available in the open?

I find that more fascinating than the contents of the shipments.
 
This kind of shipping data with detailed contents is available in the open?

I find that more fascinating than the contents of the shipments.

https://www.zauba.com/import-gm200-hs-code.html

It seems yes, something i find too really fascinating. Now, i dont see why Nvidia, or AMD or anyone want to write the codename of the sku on the box...

Is really Nvidia want to sold GTX880 and say to their client. ok guys, buy it, but in 2 months we launch the real thing. Im sure the strategy have largely work with Kepler, im not sure peoples will follow it the next times.

This said, you can find report of GM200 parts send in July, and at other date, with different codename.
 
3-4 months should be more realistic. But the possibility is high that GM200 is pin-compatible to GK110/GK210, so the PCB designs are ready.

Maybe you can buy GM200 on some >$2k Titan at the end of '14.

Yeah. The GK110 was first launched in November 2012 as a Tesla K20 part, and later as Titan in February 2013. We will probably see that same pattern here.
 
Yeah. The GK110 was first launched in November 2012 as a Tesla K20 part, and later as Titan in February 2013. We will probably see that same pattern here.

If memory serves well they started serving HPC contracts somewhere in late September 12' already. If they follow a similar trend this time I'd expect the first desktop GM200 based SKU not earlier than Q2 15'.
 
Given TSMC's 20nm production ramp (20% of revenue by financial Q4), why couldn't it be 20nm? The NVIDIA presentation arguing against 20nm dates from 2.5 years ago...
 
It makes a lot of sense for their mobile to go 20nm first. By mid 2015, all the 8xx series will be speed bumped (and hopefully moved down a teir) to become the 9xx series on 20nm.
 
Given TSMC's 20nm production ramp (20% of revenue by financial Q4), why couldn't it be 20nm? The NVIDIA presentation arguing against 20nm dates from 2.5 years ago...

I don't think I'm far off saying this year 99% of TSMC's 20nm revenue comes from Apple and Qualcomm, not NVIDIA (nor AMD)
 
It makes a lot of sense for their mobile to go 20nm first. By mid 2015, all the 8xx series will be speed bumped (and hopefully moved down a teir) to become the 9xx series on 20nm.

I hope they skip 20nm and go directly to 16nm FinFET Plus in 2015.

Apple And Nvidia To Get 16nm FinFET Chips From TSMC One Quarter Earlier Next Year

http://www.tomshardware.com/news/tsmc-apple-nvidia-denver-finfet,27538.html

2014 TSMC Technology Symposium: Full Speed Ahead for 16nm FinFET Plus, 10nm, and 7nm

TSMC now has two 16nm offerings - 16nm FinFET (16FF) and 16nm FinFET Plus (16FF+). The recently added "plus" line is a second-generation FinFET technology that provides power, performance, and area advantages.

http://www.cadence.com/Community/bl...-ahead-for-16nm-finfet-plus-10nm-and-7nm.aspx
 
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I hope they skip 20nm and go directly to 16nm FinFET Plus in 2015.

This is the most likely scenario.
Any work that was done on a 20nm ASIC should be easily ported to 16FinFet or 16FinFet+, according to TSMC.
Though 16FinFet+ is out of the picture until late 2015/early 2016.

I think a XT PE/Ultra Extreme is coming.
 
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Though 16FinFet+ is out of the picture until late 2015/early 2016.

What makes 16FF+ more difficult than 16FF that it will be available 9-12 months behind 16FF?

16nm FinFET Processes

The 16FF and 16FF+ technologies are "ready for prime time," according to Sun (left). He noted that the 16FF yield has already caught up with the 20nm planar (20SoC) process node. As a second-generation FinFET technology, he said, 16FF+ can provide an additional 15% die size reduction compared to 20SoC.
http://www.cadence.com/Community/bl...-ahead-for-16nm-finfet-plus-10nm-and-7nm.aspx
This post that quotes from TSMC's Quarterly Report and Q&A shows the delay between 16FF and 16FF+ to be 6 months or less:

http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=36487476&postcount=38

Mark Liu - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd - President & Co-CEO

Okay. 16 FinFET plus will be qualified in September. But remember, we and our customer work on 16 FinFET design one and a half years before. So all the customer already design -- the design is on 16 FinFET, okay. So the customer -- for those customers when the product tape out -- for example, we have a first product tapeout this month, it will ride on 16 FinFET process. And for those customers taped out in the second half, mostly, I would say mostly, will be riding on the 16 FinFET plus. So I would think majority of our process customers will run on 16 FinFET plus. And looking into the volume for the next year, I would say that most of the product will be run on 16 FinFET plus. Okay, thank you."
 
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I don't think I'm far off saying this year 99% of TSMC's 20nm revenue comes from Apple and Qualcomm, not NVIDIA (nor AMD)
I keep hearing this kind of information but it's a total non-sens for TSMC as a business point of view.
First, Nvidia is an historical partner.
Second JHH has very long term and personal relationship with TSMC CEO.
Third Nvidia is officially a leading customer for 20 and 16 nodes.
Then, I don't know a single company that relies on only 2 customers for their business.
Finally, you must also consider that Nvidia is a loyal customer, sourcing 100% of their products at TSMC. On the other side, Qualcomm has more than one supplier and Apple is a volatile bird that will also use Samsung 16nm.
So why on earth TSMC will piss off Nvidia with no 20nm allocation ? It will be a big mistake that will force Nvidia to look elsewhere for next node...
The truth is that Nvidia will get 20nm wafers from TSMC. Will they get everything they have allocated ? maybe not because of Apple deal, but I'm sure Nvidia will have a reasonable pie, at least enough to offer 20nm products if they have planned to.
 
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I keep hearing this kind of information but it's a total non-sens for TSMC as a business point of view.
First, Nvidia is an historical partner.
Second JHH has very long term and personal relationship with TSMC CEO.
Third Nvidia is officially a leading customer for 20 and 16 nodes.
Then, I don't know a single company that relies on only 2 customers for their business.
Finally, you must also consider that Nvidia is a loyal customer, sourcing 100% of their products at TSMC. On the other side, Qualcomm has more than one supplier and Apple is a volatile bird that will also use Samsung 16nm.
So why on earth TSMC will piss off Nvidia with no 20nm allocation ? It will be a big mistake that will force Nvidia to look elsewhere for next node...
The truth is that Nvidia will get 20nm wafers from TSMC. Will they get everything they have allocated ? maybe not because of Apple deal, but I'm sure Nvidia will have a reasonable pie, at least enough to offer 20nm products if they have planned to.

NVIDIA is small potatoes compared to Apple and Qualcomm, whose needs naturally come first. If they need a lot of wafers, TSMC will sell them everything they want.

NVIDIA comes second.
 
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