latest quarter shipment nums

[Rolf N]

I'm also ever so slightly beginning to question Sony's ship numbers TBH. If the end user sales trackers aren't reflecting them, there's a problem. I read some posts on Vgchartz in essence that Sony counts shipped as ordered by retail, a different definition than Ms (presumably shipped to retail?). I have no idea how to verify such minutia. But the very possibility of different definitions could throw comparisons into question. Although as long as both definitions only count every console once, it should come out in the wash in the long term.

I know in PS2 era, Sony supposedly counted everything off the assembly line as "shipped". This led to inflated numbers, as apparently there could be double counting, a PS2 might be counted shipped when it came off the line in one quarter, then again when actually shipped in another. Of course again supposedly, Sony switched to the stricter "sold to retail" shipped definition this gen. They even back corrected their past PS2 shipments records to the new practice, again basically all as far as I know from reading forum posts at various times.

Yes, Sony used to report "production shipments". Those counted even consoles waiting in one of their warehouses to eventually be ordered by retail, but as you've said, they made a switch to reporting sold-to-retail numbers now. These are fully comparable to the numbers Microsoft reports.

In any case, each console is counted once and only once. This was always the case, even in the days of reporting production shipments.

Overshipping/channel stuffing is not a big concern in the long run. The channel can only absorb a couple million units at best, and whatever excess you push on retailers will only take away from your shipment potential in the coming quarter(s). It all evens out in the end.

The same logic applies to your distinction between "shipped to retailers" and "ordered by retailers", even though I don't think there is such a distinction to be drawn in any of the figures we see here. Again, if there were, it would be momentary blips in one quarter that would be evened out soon after.

 

[goonergaz]

And dont forget the Japan factor. When you say PS3 has sold better with aligned launches, really most or all of the difference will be down to Japan.

Well you could just as well say that the US has been the reason X360 has done so well...largely (other than the UK) the X360 has not done fantastically well, these 2 regions (well 1 + UK) plus the fact that the US market is growing (vs the JP market shrinking) is one of the main reasons for the X360 'success' (or PS3 'failure'). I say 'success' as I'm sure MS would have wanted more than (at best) 2nd again this gen...who could have predicted the Wii success? Not me, I refused to be drawn saying it would either do what it's done or die a death.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I'd say they are neck and neck this gen. Accepting the shipped numbers, Microsoft is still currently ahead by 3.6m units. On July 30 2010. Even if Sony keeps gobbling up the gap, you wont see them overtake until 2011.
...
But anyways Sony is not ahead yet, dont count your chickens before they hatch. I expect in 3 months the tide will have turned a little bit regarding ship numbers that quarter. With Slim and Reach and probably Kinect, MS will be shipping 360's hand over fist for a few months.

In 6 months, it'll all probably be irrelevant regards the 'leader' anyway. In essence we'll be starting a new race, both XB360 and PS3 being about the same installed base, one having a slight headstart, with the motion launches defining the next leg. Everything up to this point can't shed any light on how things will pan out. One or both or neither could have a runaway success, and we can't predict that any way. We'll just throw these machines to the public, draw up our best sales hypotheses, and see who gets lucky with their guesswork!

 

[tha_con]

Or you could look at it as PS3 has 1/3 of the market essentially uncontested (Japan), was riding off the PS2's giant coattails, and should have easily destroyed the 360 within a couple years by all rights

In a sense both viewpoints are valid imo.

I'm also ever so slightly beginning to question Sony's ship numbers TBH. If the end user sales trackers aren't reflecting them, there's a problem. I read some posts on Vgchartz in essence that Sony counts shipped as ordered by retail, a different definition than Ms (presumably shipped to retail?). I have no idea how to verify such minutia. But the very possibility of different definitions could throw comparisons into question. Although as long as both definitions only count every console once, it should come out in the wash in the long term.

I know in PS2 era, Sony supposedly counted everything off the assembly line as "shipped". This led to inflated numbers, as apparently there could be double counting, a PS2 might be counted shipped when it came off the line in one quarter, then again when actually shipped in another. Of course again supposedly, Sony switched to the stricter "sold to retail" shipped definition this gen. They even back corrected their past PS2 shipments records to the new practice, again basically all as far as I know from reading forum posts at various times.

I'm sure some people will think it sour grapes, and I'm not ready to question Sony's numbers just yet especially as I think my previous post in this thread explains most of the issues I have with this quarters numbers, but I would like to see some more reasonable numbers in the future, that actually correspond to tracked sales vis a vis the competition a little better. For now I accept the Sony numbers though, especially as for the most part AFAIK they corresponded well to sales in the past (I will look into that).

I honestly don't know why you question any numbers at all, or even get in this silly little tiff over it. It is utterly pointless, considering any conclusion you come up with can be seen differently from another angle. It's basically turning into a "how can I spin these numbers to say what I want". Silly.

And yes, is actually does come across as sour grapes, in a way.

 

[Rangers]

Well, if Sony was selling 400k every NPD, and 40,000 every week in Japan, I wouldn't have a problem with them reporting shipping 2.4m

But really I dont, it seems they simply are shipping a lot to catch up to shortages. I dont think it's out of line to try to ascertain whether Sony and Microsoft shipments are an apples to apples comparison. For the moment I'm now pretty fully convinced they are.

 

[dobwal]

I honestly don't know why you question any numbers at all, or even get in this silly little tiff over it. It is utterly pointless, considering any conclusion you come up with can be seen differently from another angle. It's basically turning into a "how can I spin these numbers to say what I want". Silly.

And yes, is actually does come across as sour grapes, in a way.

He can questioned the numbers. When Sony switched its shipped definition i don't remember Sony revising previous shipped figures, which I looked for when the definition was revised. Nor was there a noticeable dip in current shipment numbers at the time to account for those consoles still in inventory but not counted under the new definition because they were recorded previously. Nevertheless, if the numbers are off its not big enough to paint the PS3 in a different light than exists now and thats slightly behind the 360 with a chance to overtake the 360 in the coming months.

Whats "silly" is your need to insult him with statements like "sour grapes" and "utterly pointless" instead of attempting to counterpoint his argument with sound logic.

 

[Alkohallick]

Ok been reading this thread and I have to ask, why does it really matter who ends up in 1st 2nd or 3rd?

 

[Npl]

Ok been reading this thread and I have to ask, why does it really matter who ends up in 1st 2nd or 3rd?

bragging rights!

It doesnt matter if the values are pretty close as in Xbox360 and PS3, but just look at lastgen where PS2 was in a huge lead. Or just early in PS3s life where quite a few (3rd party) games dint see a port from XBox360. Installed base tells you how important the platform is for 3rd-party publishers (sure its not the only factor).

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Ok been reading this thread and I have to ask, why does it really matter who ends up in 1st 2nd or 3rd?

Well I don't know about you, but I know for me, if it turns out the console I bought years ago and have enjoyed this long is the least popular console, it'll mean all my gaming was a disappointing waste of time. The moment I know which console is the loser, I can ditch it (if I need to) and buy the more popular machine and know then I've made the right choice, not hanging out with the loser. At the moment I hope dearly PS3 outsells XB360 in the end to justify my purchase and hobby.

 

[corduroygt]

Ok been reading this thread and I have to ask, why does it really matter who ends up in 1st 2nd or 3rd?

The same reason it matters who wins the European soccer leagues or the Champions' League, or any other professional sport.

 

[dobwal]

Ok been reading this thread and I have to ask, why does it really matter who ends up in 1st 2nd or 3rd?

Because on forums, consoles cease simply being gaming and media providers for the living room but morph into a spectator sport for our pleasure of discussion. Where we the fans fight and cajole about each unit sold or feature added to declare a winner largely based on advantages our favorite console may hold. Unit sales, software attachment rates, exclusives, feature support and a myriad of other aspects where value is debatable all help determine the winner in our own individual minds.

 

[Billy Idol]

Well I don't know about you, but I know for me, if it turns out the console I bought years ago and have enjoyed this long is the least popular console, it'll mean all my gaming was a disappointing waste of time. The moment I know which console is the loser, I can ditch it (if I need to) and buy the more popular machine and know then I've made the right choice, not hanging out with the loser. At the moment I hope dearly PS3 outsells XB360 in the end to justify my purchase and hobby.

I always thought that a MOD should be neutral?!

 

[NathansFortune]

Ok been reading this thread and I have to ask, why does it really matter who ends up in 1st 2nd or 3rd?

Second and third don't. First matters to some degree, or at least it used to as third parties would likely line up behind last generation's winner. Though with MS's chequebook involved third party exclusives don't really exist anymore, not on merit at least.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Second and third don't. First matters to some degree, or at least it used to as third parties would likely line up behind last generation's winner.

That's only true where last gen was a runaway winner like PS1 and PS2. This gen, firstly supporting PS3 to the exclusion of the other paltforms didn't really happen despite PS2's success. Secondly, 3rd party doesn't do so well on Wii, so the chances of them wanting to throw everything behind Wii2 next gen without regard for NextBox or PS4 are low, while likewise neither PS3 nor XB360 are going to be runaway successes like the PSes of old, so won't command a monopoly.

 

[corduroygt]

Or you could look at it as PS3 has 1/3 of the market essentially uncontested (Japan),

So it's Sony's fault that Xbox 360 doesn't sell well in Japan? Plenty of American companies have no trouble selling their products in Japan, such as Apple and Harley-Davidson. It's also more like 20%, not 33% like you said.

 

[JPT]

I dont think they mind if they end up 2nd or 3rd, as long as they are able to make money on their game division. Heck, I am quite sure that both MS and Sony wouldnt mind if they ended up dead last with only 1 console sold if they had a gazillion dollars profit on it

Then again, this generation is not just about games, its the living room entertainment space which they are fighting for. Games, Movies and what not. Sony got he BlueRay win with PS3, so I would assume if they end up #3 it consoles sold, but add BD revenue and online services PSN/Movies etc, their quite happy with what the PS3 did for them in the bigger picture.

 

[zed]

I always thought that a MOD should be neutral?!

(huh) thats obviously a joke post anyways

Even allowing PS3 selling better in continental EU (but not really UK), something surely doesn't add up to the tune of a 900,000 difference.

I think you'ld be surprised how much better the ps3 is outselling the xbox360 on continental europe eg heres some recent data

greece
PS3: ~214,000
WII: ~143,000
360: ~107,000

spain
wii: 2,260,000
ps3: 1,450,000
360: 770,000

france
WII: 4,300,000
PS3: 2,300,000
360: 1,800,000

btw my tracking of amazon.com shows julyNPD will have the xbox360 edging out wii (it will be close) with the ps3 in last place. though since this is the first month ive done it my algorithms will need some tuning when the actual numbers come out

 

[corduroygt]

I'd like to mention that maybe not that much in France and Spain, but in less well-off countries like Greece, the hardware sales won't translate much to software sales. This affects all consoles of course, but the ones that can be pirated are affected a little more.

 

[Billy Idol]

(huh) thats obviously a joke post anyways

Thanks for clarification!

Spoiler

I knew it

 

[specwarGP2]

I'd like to mention that maybe not that much in France and Spain, but in less well-off countries like Greece, the hardware sales won't translate much to software sales. This affects all consoles of course, but the ones that can be pirated are affected a little more.

Just out of curiousity, why wouldnt it? PS3 has no piracy and standalone BD players are a lot cheaper than PS3s now.