[Megadrive1988]

Microsoft leaks details on Xbox Next
PLANS REFLECT HARD-FOUGHT BATTLE WITH SONY FOR GAMERS' DOLLARS
By Dean Takahashi
Mercury News

Microsoft has quietly circulated the specifications for its next-generation Xbox video-game console, indicating how the company plans to carry on its war against dominant player Sony.

The details suggest Microsoft is far more concerned about keeping the cost of its Xbox Next console low than it is with including dazzling technological features or driving its rivals out of the business, according to a variety of industry sources.

People familiar with Microsoft's strategy say the company apparently believes it can capture a much larger share of the market if it launches its machine before Sony fields its PlayStation 3 console in 2006.

A Microsoft spokeswoman declined to comment on strategy details.

The new Xbox reflects some tough lessons learned in the current console battle, in which Sony has outsold Microsoft 5 to 1. The Xbox has put Microsoft on the map with a generation of gamers. But it has also been a money loser, albeit a relatively small one for a company with $53 billion in cash.

Microsoft launched its Xbox console 20 months after the PlayStation 2 debut. By the time Microsoft sold 1.5 million consoles, Sony had sold more than 20 million PlayStations. To date, Microsoft has sold 13.7 million Xboxes, while Sony has sold more than 70 million. In the United States alone, console sales amounted to $3 billion in sales last year.

For gamers, the new Xbox will be impressive, giving them the ability to play fast-action, realistic 3-D games on a high-definition TV set. Microsoft's emissaries have told industry developers and publishers that the next Xbox will be ready to launch in fall 2005 with the following specifications:

• Three IBM-designed 64-bit microprocessors. The combined power of these chips means the Xbox Next will have more computing power than most personal computers. The chips are used in Apple Computer's high-end G5 PowerMac machines now.

• A graphics chip designed by ATI Technologies with speeds much faster than its upcoming R400 chip for the personal computer. (edit, my note: its R420, not R400) This chip will help the next Xbox to display games with the resolution of high-definition TV.

• Compatibility with the original Xbox, which is based on Intel and Nvidia chips, isn't guaranteed. Microsoft is concerned it would cost too much money in hardware or in licensing fees to enable the Xbox Next to play old Xbox games. This is risky in part because Sony's strategy has been to maintain compatibility with its old consoles.

``I can't imagine that Microsoft would be so insanely stupid as to make it incompatible,'' said Jon Peddie, an analyst at Jon Peddie Research in Tiburon.

Microsoft is leaving itself wiggle room to react to competitive moves by Sony and Nintendo. A few details are to be decided. In contrast with the current Xbox, the next one will have no hard disk drive -- unless Sony puts one in the PlayStation 3. Instead, the console will rely on flash memory to store saved games and permanent data, much like the current PlayStation 2.

The machine also will have about 256 megabytes of dynamic random access memory. But Microsoft will upgrade that to 512 gigabytes (megabytes not gb) if Sony puts in more. The previous Xbox had 64 megabytes. And lastly, it isn't clear if Microsoft will include the current DVD video technology or Blu-Ray, its successor. Blu-Ray will hold much more data, but it's unclear when it will be ready for market.

The current Xbox has an eight-gigabyte hard disk drive. That drive is useful for online games and storing game art, but many developers chose not to make use of it. As a result, Microsoft seems to have decided that saving the $50 the hard drive costs outweighs its benefits.

In telling the developers what will be in the box, Microsoft is helping them get started on games that will be ready when the console launches. But it is also soliciting feedback, and some developers are pushing Microsoft to make changes.

``I would really like to see a hard disk drive in the box,'' said Tim Sweeney, chief executive officer of Epic Games in Raleigh, N.C., who has made his opinions known to Microsoft. ``For a console to really have a useful online component, it has to have the hard drive to store downloaded maps and other data.''

Sweeney says it is dangerous for Microsoft to wait until Sony reveals the details of the PlayStation 3 or to pay too much attention to cost issues.

``Sony isn't as motivated to launch a new console because it is No. 1,'' he said. ``If Microsoft waits for them, it is in effect allowing Sony to design Microsoft's box.''

Regarding cost issues, a Microsoft spokeswoman would only say, ``Microsoft is in this for the long term.''

Developers like Sweeney say they are pleased it will be apparently easy to develop games for Microsoft's new box. That was one of the main advantages that Microsoft has had over its rivals. Current information about the PlayStation 3, sketchy as it is, indicates that it could be extremely difficult for developers to master.

The top executives of both Electronic Arts and Activision said this week that they have not received formal ``software development kits'' from Microsoft yet, but they did say they have begun creating next-generation games. Internally, Microsoft has begun developing game prototypes, and it is using G5 systems to do so.

The same developers who have seen the Microsoft specifications say Sony hasn't shared as much data with them. Sony appears to be willing to wait until 2006, in part so that it can milk the profits from the current generation PlayStation 2. In the meantime, Sony is launching an all-in-one PS 2/video recording box dubbed the PSX and the PlayStation Portable.

Microsoft's schedule may change -- it has a big meeting coming up for developers this month. But for now it appears it will release information about the new box at both the Game Developers Conference in San Jose in March and at the Electronic Entertainment Expo in Los Angeles in May.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercu...ss/7849191.htm

[Paul]

Looks like they are really concerned about cost. And 3 IBM procesors? Sounds interesting.

But the most interesting part, fall 2005 release.

[Brimstone]

3 core PowerPC CPU with multi-threading should be very powerful.

The 256 meg of ram I don't think be the final amount. MS is just playing the hype game by increasing it later to 512. I guess we can assume it will be gddr-3.

No hard drive, OUCH! But the form factor should end up being much smaller. Flash cards will have to do I guess.

[Dave Baumann]

I'm not sure of the arragement of those, but I've heard the number "6" in relation to the CPU as well - whether that is 3 separate CPU's each with dual cores or capable of two threads each I don't know...?

[Paul]

I'm not sure of the arragement of those, but I've heard the number "6" in relation to the CPU as well - whether that is 3 separate CPU's each with dual cores or capable of two threads each I don't know...?

Maybe GDC will answer everything.

[passerby]

3 G5 variants is a strange number. Because of some very nice properties of "binary counting" with hardware implementation, "3" seems a bit out of place. I'm sure someone who knows more can comment on this.

[Sonic]

I find it odd that a hard drive wouldn't included given the cheap costs of small ones these days. If this is indeed the case then I guess my prediction that Sony and Microsoft want to go the route of adding PVR functionality is wrong. Perhaps Microsoft will release an upscale model with PVR functionality and other assortment of things.

I remember members of this board speculating or discussing about there being three IBM cores of whatnot in the Xbox2. If it's based off of the current G5 then that is definitely good news and means that the CPU power will be sufficient for nex gen games. Physics and AI are taken care of and there will probably be much spare leftover processing power for any other task that needs to be taken care of.

Graphics will be a derivative of R500 I assume, and if so then that should be dandy for greatness.

[chapban.]

HOLD HOLD HOLD! Seeya, apart this be written by Dean Takahashi(guy who wrote the Xbook) and a few sweet devs quote, the rest of tEh stuffs are nothing new to me. I be say that be what others are feeling too, yeay? No big fuss ImhO. Nothing new.

[Paul]

Physics and AI are taken care of and there will probably be much spare leftover processing power for any other task that needs to be taken care of.

Definately, especially concidering how you have that RX2GPU(Is what I'll call it) which will be doing the bulk of the geometry, transform, etc.

Interesting to note at this point, it seems MS does not care if they do not have the most powerful system. They are more concerned with sales and turning a profit(Which is what they need to do IMO)

[chapban.]

In the facts, this Takahashi must ve been desparate to throw out an article, coz this whole thing feel like a mish a mash grab a here and there from places around. I DON think "MS leak xbox next details" title sound right.....is not as if something revealing is in there.. nothing new.. :?

[Deadmeat]

Developers like Sweeney say they are pleased it will be apparently easy to develop games for Microsoft's new box. That was one of the main advantages that Microsoft has had over its rivals.

"I can't imagine how you will actually program it" - Tim Sweeney on CELL. Tim has spoken...

I find it odd that a hard drive wouldn't included given the cheap costs of small ones these days.

When MS is in penny-counting mode with Xbox hardware biz, surely it matters.

If this is indeed the case then I guess my prediction that Sony and Microsoft want to go the route of adding PVR functionality is wrong.

SCEI might still do it in order to justify the launch price of 80,000 Yen. I see "PSX" as an experiment to see how consumers respond to such high price. So far, it hasn't worked and sales have been dissapointing.

I remember members of this board speculating or discussing about there being three IBM cores of whatnot in the Xbox2. If it's based off of the current G5 then that is definitely good news and means that the CPU power will be sufficient for nex gen games.

I don't think it is based on current PPC970.

1. If MS is willing to drop the HD to save a few bucks, then it surely won't pay for the implementation cost of second and third CPU chips. Everything has to be packed into one single die.

2. MS has no use for Altivec.

Graphics will be a derivative of R500 I assume, and if so then that should be dandy for greatness.

No contest there.

[chapban.]

Originally Posted by DaveBaumann

I'm not sure of the arragement of those, but I've heard the number "6" in relation to the CPU as well - whether that is 3 separate CPU's each with dual cores or capable of two threads each I don't know...?

hey boss, let saya 3 powerpc w/ 1 activec(what that spell?) unit each is that counted as '6'? Whatever that mean... :P

[Guden Oden]

I'm thinking this is just distraction material to make MS's competitors uncertain as of the real specs.

The piece seems somewhat contradictory. On one hand it cites cost concerns, flash memory instead of harddrive and only 256MB RAM, but then suggests 3 CPUs. HMMMMMMM...

Again makes me think this is just BS, either made-up by the source to this article, or made-up by MS themselves.

Also, no word on the sound solution. MS had arguably the strongest sound of the lot this gen, wonder what SiS can come up with to match/top Nvidia's multi-DSP setup...

Same goes for Nintendo and Sony too btw.

[Megadrive1988]

of course its not three seperate CPU dies.

it would be three PowerPC cores on a single die.

like how the BroadBand Engine (in the Sony patent) has 4 PUs (simple CPU cores) and the 32 'workhorse' APUs (floating point & integer processors) on a single die.

[cthellis42]

From other reports, I'd already expected the loss of the hard drive and the possibility of no backwards-compatability (both definitely painful for it, if only from a marketing standpoint, but losing ANY good feature that the Xbox had would be a loss of face as well) in order to concentrate on the components that provide power and that they have the most control over (you can't shrink the processes on a hard drive, after all ) from a cost standpoint, and the CPU/GPU decisions were expected (by family) but still curious to know what they are specifically. How different from the PPC970 will it end up being (the wording is potentially misleading here, "being used in Apple machines now"); how will the cores be operating in conjunction? Is the GPU going to be just an augmented R420-type, since they didn't mention R500 specifically? (I would tend to assume it's R500, and just not worded that way because no one knows what R500's capabilities are to be, but R420 is right around the corner, and developers should already know.)

I doubt there's any chance the X2 won't launch without a hard drive as an optional add-on straight off, and since developers will be used to making games already leaning on it and online support of a certain style, they'll probably continue the same way regardless--and most X2 owners would bite the bullet and pick up the Hard Drive as well. But at least they'll excise a potetially expensive component they have little control over from the base price. Losing it and backwards compatibility could be big loss-of-face and marketing hits, though.

[Fafalada]

Originally Posted by Deadmeat

2. MS has no use for Altivec.

Why not? You don't really think they are putting multiple cpus in the system for nothing but generic housekeeping do you?

Originally Posted by Guden Oden

I'm thinking this is just distraction material to make MS's competitors uncertain as of the real specs.
The piece seems somewhat contradictory. On one hand it cites cost concerns, flash memory instead of harddrive and only 256MB RAM, but then suggests 3 CPUs. HMMMMMMM...

This piece is a collection of rumours that came from preliminary specs M$ has been circulating to developers.
I doubt M$'s agenda is to distract developers they are courting, but who knows (after all they are evil(tm) ). Plus, rumours have a tendency to distort information even when the original sources are credible, I'd keep that in mind.

Also, no word on the sound solution. MS had arguably the strongest sound of the lot this gen, wonder what SiS can come up with to match/top Nvidia's multi-DSP setup...

Oh you're gonna love their sound solution this time around.

[Snyder]

Looking at the rumoured specs I keep asking myself: What about backwards compatibility?
3-core PPC CPU, ATI GPU, no HDD - I just can't believe that they can provide a reasonable compatibility. Or don't they even care about it anymore?

[function]

I have no doubt that the Xbox2 will have around the same performance as the PS3 (any advantages will likely come early on from developer familiarity with DX and Microsoft development tools). Having said that, 256 megs of ram will be a little small even in 2005, especially for titles looking to port over well from the PC.

Losing the hard drive is probably my biggest concern at the moment. Given the frequency of updates for Xbox Live, and the number of games that have benefitted from patches and updates (or that would have) relying on memory cards seems a bit risky. Even a gigabyte would fill up pretty fast, and I personally hate the saving/loading times you get with cards.

It's hard to see a HDD add on selling well unless the ethernet port is bundled with it, but this would seem to be a massive step backwards.

[Edited, because I meant PS3 not PS2. Bah.]

[cthellis42]

Originally Posted by Snyder

Looking at the rumoured specs I keep asking myself: What about backwards compatibility?
3-core PPC CPU, ATI GPU, no HDD - I just can't believe that they can provide a reasonable compatibility. Or don't they even care about it anymore?

Bullet point in the article:

Compatibility with the original Xbox, which is based on Intel and Nvidia chips, isn't guaranteed. Microsoft is concerned it would cost too much money in hardware or in licensing fees to enable the Xbox Next to play old Xbox games. This is risky in part because Sony's strategy has been to maintain compatibility with its old consoles.

[cthellis42]

Originally Posted by function

I have no doubt that the Xbox2 will have around the same performance as the PS2

<laughs> You'd better repair this statement quick, before someone comes after you with a knife. :P

[notAFanB]

Anyone actually more interested in the speculation that it will launch ahead to PS3 in 2005? This could be the real decider in terms of increasin gtheir foothold next gen.

[Megadrive1988]

predictions:

-2 or 4 POWER / PowerPC core 'XCPU2' (not 3 cores)
-R500X or R550X 'XVPU'
-512 MB memory (DDR2 or GDDR3)
-20 GB HDD
-no back compatability
-1.5 billion verts peak (200-300M sustained with everything)
10 trillion ops/sec (not FLOPS!) like Xbox has 1 trillion ops/sec

[cthellis42]

It certainly could (as I've said, ANYONE could in some form or another), and in fact I think it might be more critical for them to do just that if they're going to be losing the HD and not offering backwards compatibility, as in side-by-side comparisons those points definitely hurt it (HD not that way, but in mentioned comparisons from Xbox previously, especially since it was a major point for them this gen and they wouldn't get to lean on it). Launching at least a few months ahead would get them some momentum that launching in the same area wouldn't provide.

However, since they still appear to be waiting on confirmation of some points until the PS3 announces theirs, it's extending the design process outwards while wanting to launch closer--squeezing their timetables. 3-6 months would be squeezing CPU and GPU design as well--which can always get better with more time--and game developers as well (who are able to proceed now, which is good, but are still waiting on some major details like RAM and what optical drive will be in place to work on streaming and the like). Xbox launched well enough for its small timeframe, but it's certainly one of the things I wanted to see Microsoft definitely NOT copying this round. I'm not sure how much marketing advantage they will get by beating to market (and by how much?), but there is certainly the possibility of it impacting the design process.

[Deadmeat]

Why not? You don't really think they are putting multiple cpus in the system for nothing but generic housekeeping do you?

Out of 4 logical CPUs, one would run the kernel, one would run the user process(game in this case), and one would run the DX subsystem at any given moment. Developers would be free to utilize the fourth logical processor through multithreading, which may or may not be popular with developers. But MS has no use for Altivec. MS will do well without one.

Losing the hard drive is probably my biggest concern at the moment. Given the frequency of updates for Xbox Live, and the number of games that have benefitted from patches and updates (or that would have) relying on memory cards seems a bit risky. Even a gigabyte would fill up pretty fast, and I personally hate the saving/loading times you get with cards.

I am expecting MS to replace the HD with a 128 MB flash drive directly on the motherboard.(128 MB flash cards seem to be rather cheap nowadays).

[Deadmeat]

Compatibility with the original Xbox, which is based on Intel and Nvidia chips, isn't guaranteed. Microsoft is concerned it would cost too much money in hardware or in licensing fees to enable the Xbox Next to play old Xbox games. This is risky in part because Sony's strategy has been to maintain compatibility with its old consoles.

We don't know what kind of licensing agreement that MS has with nVIDIA and how much of non-DX nVIDIA technology is in Xbox. Xbox's dependence on nVIDIA specific technology is real and MS does have to pay more get this into Xbox Next.