[Megadrive1988]

I smell desperation to get a story out but who knows.

http://www.computerandvideogames.com/r/?page=http://www.computerandvideogames.com/homepage/front_homepage.php(que)skip=yes(amp)kwd=thq

Thursday 20th November 2003


EXCLUSIVE: XBOX 2 SET FOR SHOCK GDC UNVEILING!

Console war gearing up for Easter 2004 explosion, with Microsoft set to land first blow

15:50 Microsoft is secretly planning to make the first demonstration of next-generation Xbox hardware at next year's GDC, according to industry sources operating at the highest levels. The Game Developers Conference takes place in California from March 22-26 of next year, and if the unveiling goes ahead, it will replicate almost exactly the way Microsoft revealed Xbox itself at the show in 2000.
With Sony looking increasingly likely to start making waves with PS3 at E3 next May, it's believed Microsoft, having repeatedly asserted it will be first to the market in the next generation, wants to set its stall out early and, most crucially, first.

One senior source, operating under strict conditions of anonymity, told us: "The plan is to talk specs and show early tech demos [of Xbox 2] at a US event next Easter. This will provide a platform leading towards something more substantial at E3." The proposed showing at GDC is expecting to match that of the 2000 event, and will be behind closed doors on an invitation only basis at Microsoft's stand.

In terms of timing, this makes perfect sense: the current widespread belief amongst industry watchers is that PS3 is likely to release in Japan around Christmas 2005, with the sequel to Xbox coming in preceding months, with September/October the current whisper. With this in mind, Microsoft will need to be able to go to investors and related parties with hard evidence soon.

Further credence is added by a recent report by analysts US Bancorp Piper Jaffray, published yesterday, claiming sales of the current generation of console hardware have peaked, forecasting slowing sales for the remainder of this generation; if Microsoft and its competitors are to continue to build upon the installed userbase, the revelation and promise of new hardware is essential.

We contacted Microsoft for clarification, but a spokesperson would only issue the stock response: "This is a rumour and we do not comment on rumours." However, one highly placed insider, while refusing to be drawn on the potential GDC showing, did concede: "We do have quite a lot to talk about now..."

Feel the power. We'll keep you fully updated on all developments in this dramatic situation.

[london-boy]

Nice!!!..... but... march?? gosh seems like a long time....

[StefanS]

I don't think it's a very good idea to show off demos in March, that's gives Nintendo and Sony plenty of time to revise their specs and demos for E³, which will mark the real beginnning of the next gen.

[Paul]

I don't think it's a very good idea to show off demos in March, that's gives Nintendo and Sony plenty of time to revise their specs and demos for E³

Sony doesn't and won't show off console specs come E3. They do it at their own private things, which could be March.

[hey69]

well it's not really difficult for MS to show tech demos.
they will put a big G5 or P4 3.2 gig with a ati radeon special version and let them demo some scenes. or better, they will show prerendered videos like a lot of their demos for xbox a few years ago
voila: and they declare their specs and all is done.

[Ty]

Specs for PS3 have already made some rounds.

[Dave Baumann]

I'm beginning to wonder if MS will have an earlier version of R500 than we'll see on the PC now.

Considering we are gearing up for R420/NV40 generation in PC land, these architectures are going to last at least a year, so I can't see the PC version of R500 before 2005. However, considering R500 was slated for production in H2 '03 initially (as the original R400) its possible that they are fairly feature complete. I can see it being entirely feasible that MS will recieve a version of R500 before the PC version and the PC version that does turn up may be more powerful by virtue of it being later.

[Wunderchu]

Originally Posted by DaveBaumann

I'm beginning to wonder if MS will have an earlier version of R500 than we'll see on the PC now.

Considering we are gearing up for R420/NV40 generation in PC land, these architectures are going to last at least a year, so I can't see the PC version of R500 before 2005. However, considering R500 was slated for production in H2 '03 initially (as the original R400) its possible that they are fairly feature complete. I can see it being entirely feasible that MS will recieve a version of R500 before the PC version and the PC version that does turn up may be more powerful by virtue of it being later.

I do not believe that assessment is necessarily the case.....


1. - if the article that Megadrive1988 has informed us about is true, then Microsoft seems to be doing what it did with the Xbox, which was the following:

- announce Xbox in the GDC , the year before the release of the console.
- Microsoft announced Xbox in GDC 2000 ( http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/f.../03-10xbox.asp ), and then released the console in late 2001 (in November, 2001)

2. - the Xbox GPU can either be considered:
a) a less powerful GeForce 4
or
b) a souped up GeForce 3

3. - the GeForce 3 was released in H1 2001 ...
the GeForce 4 was released in H1 2002 ....

4. - I believe ATI is now on an 18 month product cycle (major release every 18 months, with refresh parts released at 6 month intervals inbetween)

.. if this 18 month product cycle holds true going forward, then ATI 's release schedule should be something like the following:

R420 -- released early spring, 2004
(R420 refresh) -- released early fall, 2004
(R420 refresh #2) -- released early spring, 2005
R500 -- released early fall, 2005

i.e.: R500 is probably going to be released in H2 2005

5. - Therefore, since the following scenario happened before:

- GDC 2000 : Xbox is announced
- H1 2001 : GeForce 3 is released
- H2 2001 : Xbox is released (Xbox's GPU is something inbetween a GeForce 3 and a GeForce 4)
H12002 : GeForce 4 is released

.. I believe it is likely that the following scenario may happen in the future:

- GDC 2004 : Xbox 2 is announced
- H2 2005 : R500 and Xbox 2 are released ( Xbox 2 's GPU is comparable to R500)
H1 2006 : R500 refresh is released

[jvd]

don't forget that ms can have anyone make the chip once the ip is done. So they may end up with something faster than the pc sector of the r500. If they want to spend more on a better micron process or if they want to go dual core or add more memory or add on die ram. Lots of things they can do to it.

[DeadmeatGA]

Console tech demos are worthless.






PSX2 "Demo"


Xbox "Demo"

The only console company to put an "honest" tech demo was Sega with its Dreamcast. Too bad honesty doesn't win business in the console biz.

MS didn't claim they were rendered in real-time, though...

[Paul]

Funny, we have already seen better than this quality real time in Silent Hill 3.




As for the Xbox Raven demo, this was the real time version MS never really did show around too much.



In many cases real time PS2 And Xbox were better than the real time tech demos.

[DeadmeatGA]

No, this is no way better than what SCEI showed back in 1999, it is merely a texturing trick. You can cleary observe the low-polycount model wrapped around a decent resolution texture.

Since the "real" PSX2 can never approach the rendering qualities of the "imaginary" PSX2 shown back in 1999, you gotta wonder what the hell SCEI was using to run its demos....

[Paul]

You are so absolutely full of shit. It's so bad it's 100% transparent.

Face it kid, Real time of the old man in Silent Hill 3 looks better than that old man tech demo Sony showed in 98.

That picture.. Low polygon? Oh and it's a screengrab from a video camera BTW which explains why it looks blurry.

Since the "real" PSX2 can never approach the rendering qualities of the "imaginary" PSX2 shown back in 1999, you gotta wonder what the hell SCEI was using to run its demos....

You obviously have no idea what a tech demo is. Let me explain it to you, all resources are going towards a specific thing, or in this case model.

[Paul]

A better pic. Now comparing both is more fair.

[DeadmeatGA]

Real time of the old man in Silent Hill 3 looks better than that old man tech demo Sony showed in 98.

All because you are a hopeless Sony fanb-y...

That picture.. Low polygon?

Can't you see the rough edges around the hat and his collar??? A definite sign of massive polygon reduction. Then again, what would you know???

[Paul]

All because you are a hopeless Sony fanb-y...

And all because you are a hopeless Sony basher.

Can't you see the rough edges around the hat and his collar??? A definite sign of massive polygon reduction. Then again, what would you know???

We're comparing the head here, as the tech demo has no collar or body. Not to mention the Silent hill scene has an entire background, extra geometry for PS2 to render, and texture space. So tell me, the head on the Silent Hill model is a "low polygon figure with a medium resolution texture wrapped around it"? Don't make me laugh Deadmeat, your utter hate for Sony comes blatently clear in everything you type.

So tell me, which looks more realistic.

This;




Or this.

\

Feel free to make a topic and have a poll. I'm not the only one who agrees that the old man demo has already been surpassed by real time Silent hill stuff.

[notAFanB]

Paul the old man demo hasn't been recreaed becuase it's rather worthless in games (it's a tech demo after all).

DM, I fail to see exactly what is unproducable about the tech demo for hte head.

for the sake of arguement lets focus on geometric complexity and the (limited) texture usage.

[Paul]

Paul the old man demo hasn't been recreaed becuase it's rather worthless in games (it's a tech demo after all).

Tech demo's are worthless for the most part, this I already know. However, few will argue that the old man tech demo looks more realistic than this Silent Hill 3 old man.

[Tahir2]

I was wondering what's up wth all the XBOX babe pics? Are they rendered in real time too? :P

Oh I think Sega and Nintendo have been very modest about their hardware abilities, particularly Nintendo this generation (ignoring N64 totally).

[Paul]

Oh I think Sega and Nintendo have been very modest about their hardware abilities, particularly Nintendo this generation (ignoring N64 totally).

I really do think that Nintendo come next gen with their N5 needs to hype the system up.

Hell, I think flat out they should lie about their specifications in order to create hype, Or atleast be misleading. I Think this would benefit Nintendo come launch.

[DeadmeatGA]

However, few will argue that the old man tech demo looks more realistic than this Silent Hill 3 old man.

The old man had something like 60K polygons per frame and rendered hair and wrinkles. The SH3 old man's facial details are nothing but a texture map. You lack the ability to observe the miniscule details...

[DeadmeatGA]

Hell, I think flat out they should lie about their specifications in order to create hype, Or atleast be misleading. I Think this would benefit Nintendo come launch.

But I doubt poor Nintendo can top the master of deception and misleading himself. Afterall, we are told to believe that a $399 console will be doing a teraflop in 2005....

[Paul]

I don't care what type of geometry the old man demo is pushing, it doesn't undermine the fact that it does not look as realistic as the Silent hill 3 characters faces.

But sure Deadmeat, maybe the Tech demo is more technically impressive; however I IMO do not think overall it looks better.

But I doubt poor Nintendo can top the master of deception and misleading himself. Afterall, we are told to believe that a $399 console will be doing a teraflop in 2005....

Yup, and before you go bashing Sony, who were the ones who downgraded their system specifications twice? And who were the ones who upgraded it from what was first shown?

But anyway, Nintendo should and could claim all types of insane numbers and than downgrade maybe a month before launch. It's time Nintendo played dirty.

[DeadmeatGA]

I don't care what type of geometry the old man demo is pushing

You should care because PSX2 was never shown to be capable of such level of geometry and texture details. Oddly enough, none of so called "demos" suffered from the aliasing problem that plauged the first-gen titles either. So what the hell was actually doing the demo back in 1999???

it doesn't undermine the fact that it does not look as realistic as the Silent hill 3 characters faces.

So konami had good artists to work on the model. It has nothing to do with a system's capability.

But sure Deadmeat, maybe the Tech demo is more technically impressive; however I IMO do not think overall it looks better.

The same artist would be doing an even better looking model on something like Xbox or GC...

_________________

[Paul]

You should care because PSX2 was never shown to be capable of such level of geometry and texture details. Oddly enough, none of so called "demos" suffered from the aliasing problem that suffered the first-gen titles either. So what the hell was actually doing the demo back in 1999???

Again you are clueless about the concept of a 'tech demo'. Oh and what's this? Another Conspiracy theory by DMGA again? Let me guess, your ready to hang up the Sony put in the second VU at the last moment BS.

So konami had good artists to work on the model. It has nothing to do with a system's capability.

Let me guess, good artists using a SNES could do the same result? This is the logic you are going by.

The same artist would be doing an even better looking model on something like Xbox or GC...

Your point? Or is this just another jab at Sony.