[RobertR1]

*stolen from GAF*

NPD Coverage: October 30 - November 26 (4 weeks)

Overall:

Total retail sales: $3 billion (+0.4%)
Total non-PC retail sales: $2.93 billion (-0.5%)
Total software: $1.74 billion (+16%)
Non-PC hardware: $982.4 million (-9%)
Non-PC software: $1.67 billion (+15%)
Accessories: $273.8 million (-34%)
http://www.gamespot.com/news/modern-...es-npd-6347394


Software:

1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (360, PS3, WII, PC)** Activision Blizzard ~9 million
2. Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (360, PS3, PC)** Bethesda Softworks
3. Battlefield 3 (360, PS3, PC)** Electronic Arts
4. Assassin's Creed: Revelations (360, PS3, PC) Ubisoft
5. Just Dance 3 (Wii, 360) Ubisoft
6. Madden NFL 12 (360, PS3, Wii, PSP, PS2)** Electronic Arts
7. Uncharted 3: Drake's Deception (PS3)** Sony - 700k
8. Saints Row: The Third (360, PS3, PC)** THQ
9. The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword (WII) ** Nintendo
10. Batman: Arkham City (360, PS3, PC)** Warner Bros. Interactive

xx. Super Mario 3D Land (3DS) Nintendo - 625k

**(includes CE, GOTY editions, bundles, etc. but not those bundled with hardware)
Physical retail copies only.


Hardware

360 - 1.7 Million (+24%)
PS3 - 900K (+70%)
WII - 860k (-32%)
3DS - 795k
NDS - 350k (-77%

[RobertR1]

360 hitting another level of sales altogether.

PS3 very nice jump YOY

Wii party is dying down quickly

Would love to know the platform splits for the different games and ASP for all 3 consoles.

[patsu]

Hah ! If only Sony have been more interested in market share than short term profit margin.

Good to see Uncharted on the list.

[TheChefO]

Wow!

Surprised with two things:

1) PS3 did very well considering the competition pricing! Very impressed!

2) Wii is falling off a cliff!

They pulled out all the stops by having $99 bundles on Black Friday. I thought for sure they would have done better than this! I certainly didn't expect a drop off from last year! I think it's safe to say Wii has hit saturation. They need Wiiu asap ... and then they need to hope and pray their customer base isn't holding a Move controller or staring at a Kinect.


xb360 did about what I expected given the great deals they had ($150-200 kinect bundles) on Black Friday.

[TheChefO]

Originally Posted by patsu

Hah ! If only Sony have been more interested in market share than short term profit margin.

PS3 at $200 likely isn't pulling that much profit. Consider they still have a HDD on board, BRD, Cell, RSX, 2 memory traces, XDR, etc)

Not a cheap BOM.

[Rangers]

I think everybody can be happy.

Personally I expected more from 360 this month. Thought they might do 2m.

Except maybe Nintendo, but even they can enjoy decent 3DS numbers.

Hah ! If only Sony have been more interested in market share than short term profit margin

eh? Sony has been aggressive cutting price. If anything MS is the one chasing profit, not matching Sony's $50 cut earlier this year. And that's on a older/presumably cheaper system thats also pulling in a ton of Live revenue.

[AlphaWolf]

MS passed 30m units in the US (by almost 1m). Their last 12months they've moved 7.4 million (highest ever in a 12 month period). Conversely the Wii has dropped to near its lowest levels for a 12 month period. It's conceivable that with a strong December the PS3 could pass the Wii for the year 2011 (they are very close for the last 11 months).

[RobertR1]

Originally Posted by patsu

Hah ! If only Sony have been more interested in market share than short term profit margin.

Good to see Uncharted on the list.

huh? They cut the price down my $50 and then had a ton of $199 bundles all over BF weekend. I'd say they're going hard for marketshare.

[Silent_Buddha]

And the COD juggernaut continues. Not much of a surprise there.

Nice to see Uncharted 3 up there.

More surprising is that while Zelda hit the top 10, it didn't come in 2nd or 3rd and got passed by Uncharted 3. I think this speaks to the fact that most people with a Wii just aren't buying software for the Wii anymore. It'll be interesting if December manages to push Wii software up a bit. It is traditionally an extremely strong month for the brand.

X360 at 1.7 million is definitely impressive. That's pretty close to Dec. 2010 numbers (1.86). It's going to be interesting to see Dec. numbers.

PS3 also with impressive performance. I had been expecting it to sell less than half of X360 numbers for Nov. but they ended up at just over half of X360 numbers.

Wii + 3DS + NDS is still quite high at ~2 million units. So while Nintendo's individual consoles are behind, they are still making quite a bit of cash.

Regards,
SB

[Dr Evil]

Originally Posted by RobertR1

huh? They cut the price down my $50 and then had a ton of $199 bundles all over BF weekend. I'd say they're going hard for marketshare.

I read his comment as describing the situation before the price drop as in "if only the cut would have come sooner", but I could be wrong.
Nice YOY bumb for the PS3 and a great number for the X360. December should be interesting.

Nintendo is bringing out the WiiU at the right time. They were able to ride with the Wii for a very nice amount of time considering how ancient it is, but it's fading steeply now.

[RobertR1]

Previous years, for reference:
November hardware sales

Wii

2006: 476k
2007: 981k
2008:2.04 million
2009: 1.26 million
2010: 1.27 million
2011: 860k


Xbox 360

2006: 511k
2007: 770k
2008: 836k
2009: 819.5k
2010: 1.37 million


PS3

2006: 197k
2007: 466k
2008: 378k
2009: 710.4k
2010: 530k

[NavNucST3]

I kind of understand what people mean when they say Wii is dying/falling off a cliff...but...the PS3 bested the Wii by only 40k units, the Wii outsold the 3DS and the DS. If that is falling off a cliff then doing just above Wii numbers and/or just below those numbers is what?

[AlphaWolf]

It's more the direction than actual numbers. This is the worst Nov for the Wii since release when they were heavily supply constrained and especially when measured against the 360 and ps3 who both had their best Nov ever, by more than 20%.

[TheChefO]

Originally Posted by NavNucST3

I kind of understand what people mean when they say Wii is dying/falling off a cliff...but...the PS3 bested the Wii by only 40k units, the Wii outsold the 3DS and the DS. If that is falling off a cliff then doing just above Wii numbers and/or just below those numbers is what?

The shocking thing to me was the yoy fall, while at the same time, the $99 price for the first time.

Granted, the overall number of units moved is nice, but the trend is very one sided. Especially in the face of stronger competition.

[Silent_Buddha]

Originally Posted by NavNucST3

I kind of understand what people mean when they say Wii is dying/falling off a cliff...but...the PS3 bested the Wii by only 40k units, the Wii outsold the 3DS and the DS. If that is falling off a cliff then doing just above Wii numbers and/or just below those numbers is what?

It's not just that but the continuing decline of Wii blockbusters. Zelda by rights "should" have charted in the top 3 even being single platform. Large install base, large fan following, good reviews, incredible past performance. Yet it ended up selling less than 700k units when I suspect most were expecting it to sell greater than 1 million units.

December will be more telling for the platform as that's when Wii has the largest bump in sales when compared to the rest of the year for all 3 platforms.

Regards,
SB

[RobertR1]

Originally Posted by NavNucST3

I kind of understand what people mean when they say Wii is dying/falling off a cliff...but...the PS3 bested the Wii by only 40k units, the Wii outsold the 3DS and the DS. If that is falling off a cliff then doing just above Wii numbers and/or just below those numbers is what?

Trending. The Wii is going the other way, is well within desireable price points ($99 BF day sales) and still going south.

I'm sure it'll be ok in Dec but Jan and beyond you'll see a major drop off for the Wii.

[NavNucST3]

Originally Posted by Silent_Buddha

It's not just that but the continuing decline of Wii blockbusters. Zelda by rights "should" have charted in the top 3 even being single platform. Large install base, large fan following, good reviews, incredible past performance. Yet it ended up selling less than 700k units when I suspect most were expecting it to sell greater than 1 million units.

December will be more telling for the platform as that's when Wii has the largest bump in sales when compared to the rest of the year for all 3 platforms.

Regards,
SB

Did you look at prior US NPD Zelda numbers before posting this? Without picking on the PS3 again...but...couldn't one make the same claim for Uncharted? I understand what frame of reference you're presenting from I just think the context is still skewed when this "It's conceivable that with a strong December the PS3 could pass the Wii for the year 2011 (they are very close for the last 11 months)." isn't exactly a "winning" position either.

[TheChefO]

Zelda Twilight Princess sold 412k November 2006.
Release date 11/19
Wii Userbase 476k (+ 7.4m GC)

Zelda Skyward Sword <700k November 2011
Release Date 11/20
Wii Userbase 45m

[NavNucST3]

Originally Posted by TheChefO

Zelda Twilight Princess sold 412k November 2006.
Release date 11/19
Wii Userbase 476k (+ 7.4m GC)

Zelda Skyward Sword <700k November 2011
Release Date 11/20
Wii Userbase 45m

I'm positive I don't need to get into user base linearity fallacies.

Anyway, they then moved 1M in December or ~500k if you are only counting Wii or GameCube. Are you expecting something different come December? I am not the one who posited: "Large install base, large fan following, good reviews, incredible past performance."

What I AM putting forth is the question, what precedent is being used to suggest that Zelda will either not follow the previous titles sell-through rate or that this set of numbers is bad with respect to the current generation. Phantom Hourglass opened at less than 300k in the US...Zelda is about the same "size" as Uncharted some comments make it seem as if it is a Mario or Wii ___ title.

Separate from all of that your Wii user base is not for the US (Wii is ~38M in the US) so I'm not sure which other territory you are including.

[TheChefO]

Originally Posted by NavNucST3

I'm positive I don't need to get into user base linearity fallacies.

Anyway, they then moved 1M in December or ~500k if you are only counting Wii or GameCube. Are you expecting something different come December? I am not the one who posited: "Large install base, large fan following, good reviews, incredible past performance."

What I AM putting forth is the question, what precedent is being used to suggest that Zelda will either not follow the previous titles sell-through rate or that this set of numbers is bad with respect to the current generation. Phantom Hourglass opened at less than 300k in the US...Zelda is about the same "size" as Uncharted some comments make it seem as if it is a Mario or Wii ___ title.

Separate from all of that your Wii user base is not for the US (Wii is ~38M in the US) so I'm not sure which other territory you are including.

I think the theory WRT Zelda sales is that gamers have moved on from Wii.

Wii Fit3.0 or Wii Party3.0 may still sell, but gamers have moved on.

December sales indicate gift buying, ie parents, ie not gamers (from the stance of making their own purchase decisions).

I think a case could be made for holding Zelda back as a launch title for Wiiu being a better way to go.


I don't feel strongly either way about Zelda sales. In my eyes, Nintendo gave up the console platform many years ago and I've not seen much indicating they intend to dive back in.

[Tap In]

interesting

At the end of 2010, Wii had a 8.7M lead on the 360 in the US

LTD (from the Dec 2010 NPD thread)

Wii 34,154,281
360 25,395,075
PS3 15,462,196


At the end of November 2011, the 360 gained around 2M+ on the Wii. Leaving a difference of 6.77

LTD (from this thread)

WII: 37.75M
360: 30.98M
PS3: 19.05M

IF Nov sales double in Dec, we end up at the end of 2011 with:

WII: 39.45M
360: 34.3M
PS3: 20.85M

[TheChefO]

Originally Posted by Tap In

interesting

I think the chances of MS selling 3.4M in December is pretty much 0%.

2m would be pushing it.

[AlphaWolf]

Originally Posted by TheChefO

I think the chances of MS selling 3.4M in December is pretty much 0%.

2m would be pushing it.

While I agree 3.4 isn't going to happen, I can't imagine them not doing 2m. Their lowest ever increase for December over November was last year at 35% (which would be ~2.3m this year), if they planned better this year they should avoid the drop off from being supply constrained they had last year. Also keep in mind December is a 5 week month to Novembers 4.

[TheChefO]

Originally Posted by AlphaWolf

While I agree 3.4 isn't going to happen, I can't imagine them not doing 2m. Their lowest ever increase for December over November was last year at 35% (which would be ~2.3m this year), if they planned better this year they should avoid the drop off from being supply constrained they had last year. Also keep in mind December is a 5 week month to Novembers 4.

I haven't been paying attention to sales ads lately, but aren't the $200 kinect/250gb bundles over?

If so, fat chance of them pushing over 2m.

[AlphaWolf]

There will be similar post christmas sales, just like last year (and ditto there for black friday deals).