[fbuffer]

Originally Posted by eastmen

I'm reading it that ati will announce the new line up but his wont have them out till the following year. So I'm reading it at sept 2009 to Febuary or later of 2011. Which to me is 18 months.

I also haven't heard anything about refresh parts. sounds like the next thing from ati is the 6000 series and while it might be interesting what happens to the hd 5850 and 5870 , if its not till next sept it hardly matters at the moment. Who knows if those cards will ever be dropped in price , ati might introduce a whole new top to bottom line up again. This is the first time since the r300 that ati has a chance to dominate dev's minds when it comes to a new api. To me watching whats going on it seems like ati after having a great 2009 and start of 2010 is now dropping the ball and letting nvidia start to gain ground on them. The 460 is the first card to make someone really want to go nvidia and its priced right at $200 . Ati is offering nothing in the same price point with the same performance to price ratio and I believe it will cost them market share.

what I've heard (again just rumor mongering) that ATI is working on releasing midrange to low end (< 5700) with emphasis on perf per watt/die size (really!? can they get that much better?). I don't really understand this as ATi has done this in the past when migrating to a new process BUT from whats going around is ATi won't be going to a new process for SI but instead continuing with 40nm. Wondering if we'll see RV790 style improvements (5790, 5690 et).. I think ATI is more than happy sitting back enjoying their higher ASP for the time being. Honestly it seems as though NV and ATI both are happy to have their products priced so as not to directly compete at the < $225 mark... then again it wouldn't be the 1st time they've collaborated on pricing ..

[Unknown Soldier]

Originally Posted by neliz

Year and a half? September 09 to October 10 is little more than just a year. If you read closely he said that "We will be releasing our HD6000 cards" which infers Custom cards over Reference.

As I said before, Oct/November is a nice time.

And re: Dropping the ball.. I have yet to see one reason for them to pump out refreshes. It'll be way more interesting to see what nVidia does when the AMD refreshes come and the current (AMD) parts drop in price. I'm not sure a GTX475 would hold up well against a HD5870 at nearly the price. GTX480 performance level parts for the price of the current HD5850 would be a major, major ouch.

Imagine HD5850 and 5870 remaining at their launch MSRP (which will remain so unless the 470/480 drop in price) for their entire lifecycle, that's not dropping the ball, that's a complete shut-out... Sweet spot Personified.

Agreed, why waste money on a refresh when you can waste it on the next gen. Nvidia did it with their G80 when the R600 released late and slow. Nvidia didn't release a new GPU for a year i.e. G80 Nov 2006 and G92 Dec 2007. Clever work imo. although ATI are going one better and not releasing a refresh(or at least I hope so).

[eastmen]

Originally Posted by Unknown Soldier

Agreed, why waste money on a refresh when you can waste it on the next gen. Nvidia did it with their G80 when the R600 released late and slow. Nvidia didn't release a new GPU for a year i.e. G80 Nov 2006 and G92 Dec 2007. Clever work imo. although ATI are going one better and not releasing a refresh(or at least I hope so).

Nvidia released the geforce 8800 ultra in time for the radeon hd 2900 launch in may of 2007. So nvidia certianly refreshed thier product line up in less than 7 months.

Nvidia has been much better at pushing thier advantage when they have it. THe hd 2900 was late and slow , nvidia at the smae time pushed thier own performance up a notch at the release of the hd 2900. Right before the hd 3870 launch nvidia once again pushed the advantage by launching the 8800gt based on the g92. the 3870x2 was met with the 9800x2 and of cours the 48x0 series was met with the gt 2x0 series.

Ati on the other hand has just had the same parts on the market since last sept. Ati could have easily taken the spot light from nvidia's recent launches. gtx 480 faster than the 5870 ? Sure but hey look here is the 5890 a week before the gtx 480 . The gtx 470 on par with the 5850 ? Sure but here is the 5860 . The gtx 470 on par with the 5830 or better ? Sure but here is the 5840.

Ati l'm sure likes the high profit margins but they wouldn't really need to touch it , actually htey could have raised the msrp of their high end while refreshing. A 5890 could have dropped in at $450 price range to $500 if the performance was above the gtx 480. A 5860 could have hit the $350 range and a 5840 could have stayed at $250.

The way it is now the most attractively priced ati card has been reduced by $30 msrp and its still unattractive vs the nvidia card in its price range. I simly dont see why ati wouldn't want to adjust its line up to make the $150-$250 price range more attractive as right now there is a huge gap there that the 5830 isn't properly filling . To me it would seem even a 5790 with higher clocks on that gpu would be able to replace the 5830 and most likely at much higher margins.

[GZ007]

Originally Posted by Unknown Soldier

Agreed, why waste money on a refresh when you can waste it on the next gen. Nvidia did it with their G80 when the R600 released late and slow. Nvidia didn't release a new GPU for a year i.e. G80 Nov 2006 and G92 Dec 2007. Clever work imo. although ATI are going one better and not releasing a refresh(or at least I hope so).

The main problem is that this time the refresh would be on the same node than the original . Usualy the refresh is coming on a smaler process.
I think they will just try out the new architecture on smaler parts like 5700 and 5600. And than make a complet new line on smaler node with the experience.

Betwen 5850 and 5770 they still have a giant gap (I dont count the 5830 bastard card which production costs are same as the 5850 just the performance is lightyears away).

[no-X]

Originally Posted by eastmen

gtx 480 faster than the 5870 ? Sure but hey look here is the 5890 a week before the gtx 480 . The gtx 470 on par with the 5850 ? Sure but here is the 5860 . The gtx 470 on par with the 5830 or better ? Sure but here is the 5840.

I agree. But ATi has a problem here. Booked manufacturing capacity at TSMC isn't sufficient even for current parts (30/50/70). Three more SKUs would make things even worse.

Anyway, HD5840 (HD5830 with 32ROPs activated) would be really nice product.

[Unknown Soldier]

Originally Posted by eastmen

Nvidia released the geforce 8800 ultra in time for the radeon hd 2900 launch in may of 2007. So nvidia certianly refreshed thier product line up in less than 7 months.

I think you are mistaken. The 8800 Ultra was not a refresh but just an overclocked 8800 GTX. Also, there was so little of them released that some might even speculate today that it was a, damn what's that word, well it was very very limited.

Nvidia has been much better at pushing thier advantage when they have it. THe hd 2900 was late and slow , nvidia at the smae time pushed thier own performance up a notch at the release of the hd 2900. Right before the hd 3870 launch nvidia once again pushed the advantage by launching the 8800gt based on the g92. the 3870x2 was met with the 9800x2 and of cours the 48x0 series was met with the gt 2x0 series.

Yes, as I said, the G92 refresh was released a year after the original G80.

Ati on the other hand has just had the same parts on the market since last sept. Ati could have easily taken the spot light from nvidia's recent launches. gtx 480 faster than the 5870 ? Sure but hey look here is the 5890 a week before the gtx 480 . The gtx 470 on par with the 5850 ? Sure but here is the 5860 . The gtx 470 on par with the 5830 or better ? Sure but here is the 5840.

Erm, the 5970 fills that gap nicely. ATI don't need to have the single fastest chip title when they already have the single fastest card title. They had the fastest chip title for about 6 months. Last I saw, Nvidia's 480 does not beat the 5970.

Ati l'm sure likes the high profit margins but they wouldn't really need to touch it , actually htey could have raised the msrp of their high end while refreshing. A 5890 could have dropped in at $450 price range to $500 if the performance was above the gtx 480. A 5860 could have hit the $350 range and a 5840 could have stayed at $250.

The way it is now the most attractively priced ati card has been reduced by $30 msrp and its still unattractive vs the nvidia card in its price range. I simly dont see why ati wouldn't want to adjust its line up to make the $150-$250 price range more attractive as right now there is a huge gap there that the 5830 isn't properly filling . To me it would seem even a 5790 with higher clocks on that gpu would be able to replace the 5830 and most likely at much higher margins.

No need for any of that. the 5870 and 5850 did it's work for ATI, who delivered over 11 million chips.

Originally Posted by GZ007

The main problem is that this time the refresh would be on the same node than the original . Usualy the refresh is coming on a smaler process.
I think they will just try out the new architecture on smaler parts like 5700 and 5600. And than make a complet new line on smaler node with the experience.

Betwen 5850 and 5770 they still have a giant gap (I dont count the 5830 bastard card which production costs are same as the 5850 just the performance is lightyears away).

Refreshes before have been released on the same node. Hell, if I remember correctly, the HD3800 and HD4800 were on the same node i.e. 55nm.

It would be wise of ATI to take advantage what they've learnt from the HD5800 and apply it to HD6xxx

[fbuffer]

Originally Posted by Unknown Soldier

No need for any of that. the 5870 and 5850 did it's work for ATI, who delivered over 11 million chips.

I'd be willing to bet the majority of those 11 (umpteen by now) Million were < 5770 parts

[eastmen]

Originally Posted by Unknown Soldier

I think you are mistaken. The 8800 Ultra was not a refresh but just an overclocked 8800 GTX. Also, there was so little of them released that some might even speculate today that it was a, damn what's that word, well it was very very limited.

in the end it was still an updated part with its own launch and allowed nvidia to extend into higher price brackets while further distancing its top of the line product from ati's top of the line product.

Yes, as I said, the G92 refresh was released a year after the original G80.

and the 8800ultra released right before the hd 2900xt so nvidia had something there.

Erm, the 5970 fills that gap nicely. ATI don't need to have the single fastest chip title when they already have the single fastest card title. They had the fastest chip title for about 6 months. Last I saw, Nvidia's 480 does not beat the 5970.

The 5970 isn't very attractive to some because it will only be faster than the 5870 in games which crossfire scales well with. A faster 5890 could also lead the way to a faster 5990 also

No need for any of that. the 5870 and 5850 did it's work for ATI, who delivered over 11 million chips.

Yes and how many of those 11m chips are 5830 up and how many are 5770 and under ?

[GZ007]

The new 199$ MSRP on the 5830 radeons is just showing the margins on 5800 cards and that the 5830 is surely not a cash cow.(and if they increased yealds than its money waste too)
If ATI release a (test)refresh on 40nm than it will be surely aimed betwen 5770 and 5850. To kill off the 5830. And maybe they could use it also in mobile chip to beat the GTX 480M.

[Unknown Soldier]

Originally Posted by eastmen

in the end it was still an updated part with its own launch and allowed nvidia to extend into higher price brackets while further distancing its top of the line product from ati's top of the line product.

and the 8800ultra released right before the hd 2900xt so nvidia had something there.

Doesn't matter, the Ultra in all essence was virtually identical to the 8800GTX except it had a new silicon and higher core/memory speeds.

By and large, the GeForce 8800 Ultra is the same basic product as the GeForce 8800 GTX that's ruled the top end of the video card market since last November. It has the same 128 stream processors, the same 384-bit path to 768MB of GDDR3 memory, and rides on the same 10.5" board as the GTX. There are still two dual-link DVI ports, two SLI connectors up top, and two six-pin PCIe auxiliary power connectors onboard. The feature set is essentially identical, and no, none of the new HD video processing mojo introduced with the GeForce 8600 series has made its way into the Ultra.

Yet the Ultra is distinct for several reasons. First and foremost, Nvidia says the Ultra packs a new revision of G80 silicon that allows for higher clock speeds in a similar form factor and power envelope. In fact, Nvidia says the 8800 Ultra has slightly lower peak power consumption than the GTX, despite having a core clock of 612MHz, a stream processor clock of 1.5GHz, and a memory clock of 1080MHz (effectively 2160MHz since it uses GDDR3 memory). That's up from a 575MHz core, 1.35GHz SPs, and 900MHz memory in the 8800 GTX.

http://techreport.com/articles.x/12379/1

The 5970 isn't very attractive to some because it will only be faster than the 5870 in games which crossfire scales well with. A faster 5890 could also lead the way to a faster 5990 also

Why is it unattractive? Many people I know actually went from a 5870 to a 480 to a 5970. If they have the money to splurge for the top of the range card, then the 5970 is very attractive. A 5890 wouldn't necessarily beat a 480 or even come close to a 5970 and most probably would end up a few fps more than the original 5870 while a 5990 would be a waste if the 5970 is already the top card to beat. If Nvidia had come out with a GX2 or such type card taht beat the 5970, then yes I could've thought it practical to maybe have a 5990. But now? No. Rather spend the money on the HD6xxx.

Yes and how many of those 11m chips are 5830 up and how many are 5770 and under ?[/QUOTE]

Does it matter? I'd be willing to stake ATI's reputation (snicker) on it and say they sold more 5870/5850 than they have currently sold 5830. btw. I don't work for ATI and I couldn't think of anything to stake.

[psolord]

Originally Posted by eastmen

The 5970 isn't very attractive to some because it will only be faster than the 5870 in games which crossfire scales well with. A faster 5890 could also lead the way to a faster 5990 also

The only thing that is unattractive on the 5970, is its price. You could always get two 5850s with considerably less money and have the exact same performance.

Other than that, Crossfire is sure to work in games that matter so a dual GPU card that can get the job done, cannot be unattractive. I've seen instant dual gpu scaling on my 5850 crossfire system, on many games, right from day one of their launch. I mean big titles, like Modern Warfare 2, Metro 2033, Dirt 2, Bad Company 2. So since the performance is there, it doesn't matter if it comes from one gpu or two.

From a manufacturing perspective, it is more profitable to have two smaller gpus working together and have your driver team with their fingers nailed on their keyboards to make a game work (a close collaboration with all developers is a must as well), than having a bigger chip with easier driver development.

Granted, some games are bitches to work in multi gpu systems. Take Bioshock 2 for example. Since its launch, I've never seen it bothering my second 5850. But hey, what's the point, since it can already run at 54fps on my old 3870 and that's at DX10 1920X1080 mind you!

[Triskaine]

Some leaks from our Chinese friends:
http://translate.google.de/translate...n&hl=&ie=UTF-8

Bullet Points:
- 1920 4D shaders
- Q4 release before Christmas

[eastmen]

Originally Posted by Unknown Soldier

Doesn't matter, the Ultra in all essence was virtually identical to the 8800GTX except it had a new silicon and higher core/memory speeds.
http://techreport.com/articles.x/12379/1

They still refreshed thier product line and was able to introduce a more expensive faster part. Which if you haven't noticed is what I sugested ati should have done with a 5890 part.

With the 8800ultra nvidia was able to create a brand new higher priced sku . Ati could have done the same

Why is it unattractive? Many people I know actually went from a 5870 to a 480 to a 5970. If they have the money to splurge for the top of the range card, then the 5970 is very attractive. A 5890 wouldn't necessarily beat a 480 or even come close to a 5970 and most probably would end up a few fps more than the original 5870 while a 5990 would be a waste if the 5970 is already the top card to beat. If Nvidia had come out with a GX2 or such type card taht beat the 5970, then yes I could've thought it practical to maybe have a 5990. But now? No. Rather spend the money on the HD6xxx.

The 5890 wouldn't have to come close to a 5970 , it just has to be a better value than the g480.


The 5870 currently sits at $400
The 5870 2gig sits at $500
The 5970 sits at $700

The 5870 has very limited performace benfits compared to the 5870 1gig . So a 5890 with faster performance could have sloted in at $550-$600.

For those who want the very best they could have spent on two 5890 and had better performance than a single 5970.


As for why the 5970 is unattractive. It costs $100 more than two 5850s , it costs only $100 less tha dual 5870. The cross fired 5850s are as fast and the crossfire 5870s are even faster

Does it matter? I'd be willing to stake ATI's reputation (snicker) on it and say they sold more 5870/5850 than they have currently sold 5830. btw. I don't work for ATI and I couldn't think of anything to stake.

Don't you find that troubling ? That from $160 to $280 ish there is no compelling ati part. The 5830 up till now cost $250 and had performance closer to the $150 5770 but power usage and heat of the 5850 which was only $50 more in most cases. Even now at $200 its a tough sell for consumers.

[Farid]

Folks, may I remind you all that this is a speculation thread about the future Ati architecture R9xx, not a "general talk about recent Ati cards."

These thread are already hard to follow as is, let's not spend pages arguing about

Originally Posted by Triskaine

Bullet Points:
- 1920 4D shaders
- Q4 release before Christmas

It's now rumored for a before the end of the year release? I'm still hearing early Q1 2011, for what it's worth. Then again, a few cards may be able to find their ways on the shelves for December, that's not a far fetched hypothesis.

And 1920 SPs would represent a ~20% increase over RV870 1600 SPs. Then again, all SPs aren't made equal, so that value in itself isn't very telling.

[neliz]

Originally Posted by Farid

It's now rumored for a before the end of the year release? I'm still hearing early Q1 2011, for what it's worth. Then again, a few cards may be able to find their ways on the shelves for December, that's not a far fetched hypothesis.

And 1920 SPs would represent a ~20% increase over RV870 1600 SPs. Then again, all SPs aren't made equal, so that value in itself isn't very telling.

I'm still hearing an oct/nov launch.
Also those 1920SPs wouldn't be 4D+1D anymore but 4D, if I'm reading it correctly that would be a big boost to the base performance of Caymann.. ehrm.. if I got that name right. CH also suggest a 1/2 SP/DP (2Fat+2Thin SP) rate instead of the current 1/5 rate of Cypress.

(I have no idea if that last sentence made any sense)

[Jawed]

Maybe he's suggesting nothing more than one lane out of each pair can be used to add the result of both lanes in the pair. Which is how things are now (ignoring dot product which adds from all four lanes).

[Malo]

Originally Posted by eastmen

Yes and how many of those 11m chips are 5830 up and how many are 5770 and under ?

According to Steam stats, the DX11 systems show 5800 series as 5.20% and 5700 series as 4.92%. That's a fairly close distribution between the 2.

[mczak]

So now S.I has the rumored shader changes (going from 4D+1D to 4D somehow) which were assumed to be part of N.I? That's a pretty fundamental change for a part which was supposed to be a mere refresh with mostly setup related changes...
Oh and for the supposed DP with half performance, I'm not sure this makes sense yet - after all AMD still disables even 1/5th performance DP in all but the fastest chips - and apparently nvidia doesn't think DP is important for consumer graphic cards neither.

[Novum]

Originally Posted by mczak

and apparently nvidia doesn't think DP is important for consumer graphic cards neither.

That's because it isn't and never will be.

[Jawed]

Originally Posted by mczak

So now S.I has the rumored shader changes (going from 4D+1D to 4D somehow) which were assumed to be part of N.I? That's a pretty fundamental change for a part which was supposed to be a mere refresh with mostly setup related changes...

Start here:

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread...50#post1416950

quite a few posts. There's a lot of "new functionality" in Cypress's ALUs - it looks like functionality that's almost, but not quite, enough to ditch T - well that's my interpretation anyway.

Another possibility is XYZT

[Alexko]

Originally Posted by Malo

According to Steam stats, the DX11 systems show 5800 series as 5.20% and 5700 series as 4.92%. That's a fairly close distribution between the 2.

Steam is a gaming platform, so its stats are heavily biased towards high-end hardware.

[Sinistar]

Originally Posted by fbuffer

I'd be willing to bet the majority of those 11 (umpteen by now) Million were < 5770 parts

near 16 million according to todays earnings conference call.

[aaronspink]

Originally Posted by Jawed

Start here:

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread...50#post1416950

quite a few posts. There's a lot of "new functionality" in Cypress's ALUs - it looks like functionality that's almost, but not quite, enough to ditch T - well that's my interpretation anyway.

Another possibility is XYZT

Well yea, there are three possibilities:

From
R G B A T

To
R G B AT
R G B T
RT GT BT AT

[Squilliam]

Originally Posted by Sinistar

near 16 million according to todays earnings conference call.

That could have been much higher had they enough supply of 40nm wafers from TSMC available and decent yields early on.

OT: A part of me is hoping that they are going to release 28nm Southern Island GPUs this year and rumours to the contrary are just misinformation!

[mczak]

Originally Posted by aaronspink

Well yea, there are three possibilities:

From
R G B A T

To
R G B AT
R G B T
RT GT BT AT

Well the "2 thin, 2 fat" suggests something different entirely even.
Still those ides were previously discussed for N.I, not S.I. unless I'm confusing something...