[Geo]

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080702/aqw114.html?.v=46

Well, apparently they agree with world+dog on relative pricing vs the competition right now, as after the market closed today they guided lower on 2Q revenue and gross margins vs their last conference call.

One of the elements they cited was :

price adjustments of our GPU products to respond to competitive products.

Additionally, they're taking a $150-200M charge for warranty repairs on notebooks with their gpu and mcps. That's enough to be an owie.

Certain notebook configurations with GPUs and MCPs manufactured with a certain die/packaging material set are failing in the field at higher than normal rates. To date, abnormal failure rates with systems other than certain notebook systems have not been seen. NVIDIA has initiated discussions with its supply chain regarding this material set issue and the Company will also seek to access insurance coverage for this matter.

/me looks at his T61P and crosses his fingers.

[fellix]

price adjustments of our GPU products to respond to competitive products.

It's actually just one "competitive product" [RV770] in merely two flavours, as for now.
And one have to wonder, how is going a marketing strategy of battling that single enemy with a whole galore of SKUs...

[digitalwanderer]

Good thing nVidia is made of money or this might hurt 'em.

[Sxotty]

Originally Posted by digitalwanderer

Good thing nVidia is made of money or this might hurt 'em.

Right

They are hurting no doubt, but that is in comparison to their previous position. It would have been hard to go anywhere but down after the last year.

[Geo]

Originally Posted by digitalwanderer

Good thing nVidia is made of money or this might hurt 'em.

Well, as I said in another thread, they will do what it takes to stay competitive. And you just saw the evidence of it. Price cuts ahoy!

[Geo]

Originally Posted by fellix

And one have to wonder, how is going a marketing strategy of battling that single enemy with a whole galore of SKUs...

We'll see, of course, but historically I'm sort of reminded of ATI trying to take on 6600GT "Back in the day".

[trinibwoy]

This is good stuff. Nvidia has the resources and the talent but nothing beats a good kick in the pants now and then.

[Geo]

Heh. They certainly got a great run out of the last wake-up call to the keister.

[digitalwanderer]

Originally Posted by trinibwoy

This is good stuff. Nvidia has the resources and the talent but nothing beats a good kick in the pants now and then.

I couldn't agree more.

[Davros]

yay, trying to release a card for $650 - scandalous...
well done ati

[AlphaWolf]

It was always alot more interesting to observe these shifts when ATI was an independent entity. As much as I'm sure the radeon's are doing great right now, AMD is off more than $2 (~30%) of its 30day high. NVDA is off $7 (~25%) over the same period.

I'm just glad I have nothing invested in either of them atm.

<edit> ok I just saw that NVDA lost another $3-4 in after hours trading. ouch

Fudzilla claims $90 and $30 drops tomorrow for 280 and 260 respectively.

[wishiknew]

Amazing difference 2 weeks make eh.

[Geo]

Originally Posted by Davros

yay, trying to release a card for $650 - scandalous...

You mean compared to the several other times in recent years?

[neliz]

I wonder how many of the guys here that were happy to own nV stock (at ~$40) are still happy now. we're back at '06 levels and I doubt market mindset will change in the upcomming year.

[dizietsma]

It's a relief to see both fighters still duking it out, I was concerned for Ati for a while but now they have got nvidia backed into their corner. But you know nvidia will come out fighting.

Will they be slipping that horseshoe into their glove like they did after the FX range though

[Davros]

Originally Posted by Geo

You mean compared to the several other times in recent years?

YES......

[epicstruggle]

Currently their stock price is at 13.30 ish. Thats off 25% for the day. WOW.

[ZerazaX]

Around 29% right now and still changing, huge it

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...O4Y&refer=news

[Albuquerque]

I'm just waiting for NVDA to settle to about $10 and I'll buy a big f'ing pile of it

[epicstruggle]

Originally Posted by Albuquerque

I'm just waiting for NVDA to settle to about $10 and I'll buy a big f'ing pile of it

I figure the bottom is at 11. Im buying every 50 cent drop from 12.75.

[Carl B]

This is a very real issue though for NV going forward - the market gains AMD is likely to make this gen - besides eating into NV's volumes and margins - will work to reduce their mindshare ahead of Larrabee. Plus we all know when gamer sentiment shifts from one company to the other, it sort of stays there as a default until the other side offers compelling... not just similar... reason to change in the new gens. For myself, hell I've never owned an ATI card (though I've bought some as gifts); but I will this year.

Not only that but this whole defect-charge related issue speaks to an obviously deteriorating situation in the laptop space, where vendors may want to wait a while to see if the problems are remedied. That, or NV cuts into their margins further in order to incentivize, but point being come the quarterly results I wouldn't be surprised by substantial fiscal year downward profit revisions. And since that news has the potential to 'surprise' investors all over again, in terms of the stock there may be more downside to come.

I did buy some AMD today though on the sympathy sell-off, even though I think there's risk there of a further drop over the next couple of weeks due to the general chip malaise. Still with expectations for them already so low in the financial community, I'm hoping these quarter results will show a positive surprise, in part premised on NV's market retreat and AMD winning back some desktop CPU share from Intel in spite of itself. I'm also hoping for some news on their fab-lite strategy, as whether material or not that would be a boost for the shares.

[Geo]

Originally Posted by Carl B

Not only that but this whole defect-charge related issue speaks to an obviously deteriorating situation in the laptop space, where vendors may want to wait a while to see if the problems are remedied.

ATI was the great notebook champ for many years. It's only been the last 2.5 years that Nvidia's notebook market absolutely exploded, in part due to power advantages starting with the R5/G7 generations, and then ATI being bought by AMD making a close relationship on laptops with Intel pretty dicey for ATI. I have a feeling that ramping up production in that area considerably from their historical averages is what bit nvidia. Lappies are a different breed with much tighter production tolerances.

Edit: The release says "previous generation", which I'd guess in this context is the G7x line. One thing about laptops, is my impression is people are much more likely to buy extended warranties for them than desktops, increasing your exposure to down-the-line warranty repair costs.

[WaltC]

Originally Posted by Sxotty

Right

They are hurting no doubt, but that is in comparison to their previous position. It would have been hard to go anywhere but down after the last year.

Yes, I hate to think where nV would be had ATi not essentially taken so much time off in the last year reorganizing and reorienting with AMD...(ouch!)... I think the 4800 series must at last put to bed all doubt about the ultimate fruit of the AMD/ATi union. Perhaps we can at last dispense with the "rotten fruit" metaphors of the last year, too...

[neliz]

31% already. shares drop faster than the price of the graphics cards. ($12.49)

[Carl B]

Well, that 31% was more or less instant - it's been trading at around ~28% down all day, and remember that the normal markets are closed now, so any trading you're seeing currently is after-hours. It opened today at $12.40 and closed at $12.49, so what you saw at the beginning is sort of what you got at the end. For reference yesterday's close was $18.03.

I was tempted by the stock a couple of times myself today truth be told, just because I could envision a significant bounce on Monday. But NVidia's just too volatile a play for me given that I'd more or less be gambling for that bounce, not having a high-confidence level for their ability to spin the future earnings reduction announcement into something positive. I do wish everyone getting in the best of luck though; NV's always a stock where there's a lot of money to be made or lost in extremely abbreviated amounts of time.