[zed]

Market research firm Datamonitor has released a new study proclaiming that the PlayStation 3 will emerge as the dominate console during the current hardware generation, with an install base of around 75 million globally by 2010.

75 seems a bit on the low side though

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/new...hp?story=12250

[Carl B]

For God's sake can these publications not spell a word like 'dominant' correctly?

[AlStrong]

perhaps he meant "dominating" and his own "English to Binary to 1337 to Compenglish" translator didn't work.

Anywyas...weren't there other people predicting that Sony would lose just a couple months ago?

[rusty]

75 million in 3 years?

am I really the only one that finds that figure a little hopeful? The PS2 took over 6 years to reach 100 million (~17mill p.a average), and that started off cheaper so hit the casual market sooner than I imagine the PS3 will.


I really wouldn't be suprised if sony are still in numero uno place this gen, but I'd be very suprised if it was to the same extent as last gen was...

[PSman]

75 million in 3 years?
am I really the only one that finds that figure a little hopeful?

With price drop, more unit and more quality exclusives comming in the future, Sony will reach that number or surpass it even

IMO

[ihamoitc2005]

Originally Posted by PSman

With price drop, more unit and more quality exclusives comming in the future, Sony will reach that number or surpass it even

IMO

Everyone has different opinions my friend. I do not know what will happen but in one year everyone can afford 1080P LCD and Projection with credit card. 1080 hype is already more because of silly (clever?) Jessica Simpson ad.

Here is what one designer says for next gen games. He says he likes Wii.

http://www.gamasutra.com/features/20...adams_01.shtml

From a design standpoint, however, the PS3 is evolutionary, not revolutionary. It doesn’t change much about our job. It makes it easier to design the same stuff we’ve always designed, but it doesn’t encourage us to try anything particularly new.

That’s where the Wii excels. Nintendo has bet the company on a radical new approach to gaming. Gameplay, they said, is really about interactions, not graphics. The Wii Remote gives players new things to do, which means it challenges us designers to come up with those things. Furthermore, it takes away functionality found on other consoles. Instead of the eleven buttons, two analog joysticks, and a D-pad of the PS3 controller, it has only six buttons and a D-pad. To design for this, we have to think differently – we have no choice about it. By contrast, Sony has hedged its bets. Its controller is wireless now, and it contains some motion-sensing capability, but it’s still definitely a two-handed device, almost identical to the Dual Shock. It’s not the kind of thing that encourages the player to see it as a light saber, tennis racket, fishing rod, or six-shooter – or to get up off the couch.

[inefficient]

Originally Posted by ihamoitc2005

...

But who is to say $40 Wiimote like peripherals will not start popping up for the 360 and PS3?

[Qroach]

seriously this research firm has no idea what thy are talking about.

[pakotlar]

Originally Posted by inefficient

But who is to say $40 Wiimote like peripherals will not start popping up for the 360 and PS3?

Problem is that from a developer standpoint, one cannot count on the owners of the system owning the periphreal. Which limits devs to bundles and series, which are more expensive and will penetrate fewer homes. Including the remote with every system changes the paradigm of design on that platform.

[Johnny Awesome]

Sony will never sell 75 million PS3s in the next 3 years. It's ridiculously impossible. It wouldn't shock me to see that happen by 2012 though, and for Sony to sell more units than X360 because of MS weakness in the Japanese market.

[ihamoitc2005]

Originally Posted by inefficient

But who is to say $40 Wiimote like peripherals will not start popping up for the 360 and PS3?

Really fun games will have good extra peripheral sales like DDR mat, eyetoy, guitar hero guitar, etc so what you say may be correct but still PS3 does not have such games no? But maybe later there will be.

[Cheezdoodles]

Reason i didnt post it, just like i have never posted any of the publications from analysts regarding console sales is because analysts are fortune tellers.

One week somebody predicts 200 million Wii's, another week somebody predicts 90% markedshare to the Xbox 360, and so on..

75million sold, in 3 years seems like an impossible number thought. Considering the price of the console , and the sheer amount. 75 million means they have to outsell what PS2 managed in its first 3 years. By ALOT.

[Capeta]

Originally Posted by PSman

With price drop, more unit and more quality exclusives comming in the future, Sony will reach that number or surpass it even

IMO

The PS2 was half the cost of PS3 and it didn't move that many in 3 years. You expect SONY to price drop to $200 in the next 3 years?

Originally Posted by Qroach

seriously this research firm has no idea what thy are talking about.

I wouldn't be surprised if David Manning was behind it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Manning

[Nesh]

Originally Posted by rusty

75 million in 3 years?

am I really the only one that finds that figure a little hopeful? The PS2 took over 6 years to reach 100 million (~17mill p.a average), and that started off cheaper so hit the casual market sooner than I imagine the PS3 will.


I really wouldn't be suprised if sony are still in numero uno place this gen, but I'd be very suprised if it was to the same extent as last gen was...

actually thats TOO hopeful and optimistic. I doubt it. I think its impossible unless there is something we are missing. But then again you know analysts

The only good thing about this report is that its nice to have something good being told about PS3 after all the doom and gloom claims for a change


Now if its proven truthful or BS well, it doesnt matter much now....perhaps for Sony it might for their stockholders' expectations.

[Kaotik]

Originally Posted by zed

im surprised ostepop or masterdisaster havent posted this



75 seems a bit on the low side though

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/new...hp?story=12250

on low side?
75 million in 36 months is over 2 million consoles per month, and so far they have gotten what, under 1mil in 5 months? I know they will start to produce more and more of them all the time, but still

[Acert93]

Originally Posted by Kaotik

on low side?
75 million in 36 months is over 2 million consoles per month, and so far they have gotten what, under 1mil in 5 months? I know they will start to produce more and more of them all the time, but still

The PS2 is the crown jewel of console sales. Expecting the PS3 to exceed the annual rate the PS2 did is unrealistic because the PS3 has more competition, a different market, and a higher price tag.

Btw, the 75M numbers is about the ballpark for what I think Sony will hit in 5 years (70-80M; total lifespan higher of course). But I am only an analcyst.

[Midboss]

Who knows what will happen to the PS3.

It's the same as all the people that wanted to get a PS3 with visions of triple returns on it off of ebay..
Personally I hope they do well but not great because their system is just too expensive right now and it could certainly use a price cut.

[Rangers]

It could happen. The PS3 can put out flashy graphics at the drop of a hat and has Sony's games stable for backup.

[Tagrineth]

I know Sony will succeed this gen but I hope they have just enough problems and/or fall just far enough behind MS and Nintendo that they rethink their extreme overextending strategy.

[tongue_of_colicab]

I wouldnt be suprised if sony wins the console war. All the 3rd party devs that are supporting them because of the ps2 is the main reason for that. But the question is by how much they will win. THe ps2 was the clear winnen with gc and xbox picking up whats left. I think sony is more likely to get somewhere in between 40 and 55% of the market.

In the end, sony only has things to lose and ms and nintendo can only win.

[StefanS]

The thread has been off to a very bad start and it didn't exactly improve... locked