[PARANOiA]

Link here: http://next-gen.biz/index.php?option...=3371&Itemid=2

I honestly thought the 360 would be doing better than it currently is in Japan... don't see much of a future there at all. The only question in my mind is, will Japan remain as influential on the market this gen as it has been in the past?

[Sonic]

Japan has lost its influence on the market in the last generation. At least in terms of the Western markets are concerned then Japanese companies no longer have much sway. Their games still sell well, but American and European game companies have much stronger influence in our markets.

Regarding the Japanese market, well...Microsoft does need some heavy hitters if it's going to attract gamers. The Blue Dragon sounds like a game that could be it, if it is good and the Japanese RPG buying consumers recognize Sakaguchi's name on it and it being his game...then yes it could be a breakthrough title. I don't think it will be a huge system seller that will launch the 360 into stardom.

Microsoft really needs to get an exclusive must have Japanese game if they are to truly succeed in Japan. I don't know if they've tried securing a Final Fantasy game or Dragon Quest game but that would definitely be a title that would secure a decent position for the Xbox 360.

[NavNucST3]

Originally Posted by Sonic

Japan has lost its influence on the market in the last generation. At least in terms of the Western markets are concerned then Japanese companies no longer have much sway. Their games still sell well, but American and European game companies have much stronger influence in our markets.

Regarding the Japanese market, well...Microsoft does need some heavy hitters if it's going to attract gamers. The Blue Dragon sounds like a game that could be it, if it is good and the Japanese RPG buying consumers recognize Sakaguchi's name on it and it being his game...then yes it could be a breakthrough title. I don't think it will be a huge system seller that will launch the 360 into stardom.

Microsoft really needs to get an exclusive must have Japanese game if they are to truly succeed in Japan. I don't know if they've tried securing a Final Fantasy game or Dragon Quest game but that would definitely be a title that would secure a decent position for the Xbox 360.

What I was going to say, but didn't want to be the first to say it.

I think the issue with MSFT and Japan and securing something akin to a FF or DQ, is looking at the market and seeing the decline in the console industry in the country. Would the amount they spend recoup enough costs for a diminishing market (when not including handhelds)? One school of thought would be to gain a foothold now, so that when the MS handheld device launches, they would at least have a positive mindshare.

[RancidLunchmeat]

I don't understand why they would spend the money, the time, or the focus.. or any more than they already are on Japan/Asia.

NA and UK/Europe are far larger markets. It makes no sense to divert resources to try to gain a larger presense in the smallest market.

If Japan/Asia like the titles that are being produced and purchase them, fine. If they don't, then let them purchase other consoles. Just make sure that NA and UK/Europe markets like the titles that are being produced and the 360 (or any console) will do just fine.

[Sonic]

It's been a while since I've looked at actual sales and software data for Japan. If it is indeed a diminishing market then it doe smake little sense to invest a lot of time and effort to make the Xbox 360 successful in Japan, especially if they will see little to return on their investment. In my eyes Japan isn't really all that important for a console to be successful, but what if the market grows in the net generation? Microsoft then missed a piece of that pie, but this thinking is in terms of business and not coming as a gamer.

[Arsynic]

No game could save 360 in Japan. Japan is a 20 year project.

[Sonic]

Arsynic, will you please elaborate why you feel this way? I would really like to know why you think Japan will be a 20 year project for Microsoft.

[Arsynic]

Originally Posted by Sonic

Arsynic, will you please elaborate why you feel this way? I would really like to know why you think Japan will be a 20 year project for Microsoft.

It will take 20 years of persistence for Xbox to become a viable brand in Japan. That's just the way it is. MS has to be persistent and stop spending so much money on Japan at the moment, focus on NA and Europe and eventually they'll gain a foothold in Japan. But right now, games have jack squat to do with the Xbox's success or lack thereof in Japan.

[one]

Originally Posted by Arsynic

No game could save 360 in Japan. Japan is a 20 year project.

IBM PC/AT compatible PC, which is known as Windows PC today, could successfully crush NEC PC-9801 which had been the dominant PC platform in Japan and it took less than 10 years. Before that Microsoft killed TRON in the PC world but it was by governmental help.
http://tronweb.super-nova.co.jp/msvshistfact.html

[scooby_dooby]

Originally Posted by Arsynic

It will take 20 years of persistence for Xbox to become a viable brand in Japan. That's just the way it is. MS has to be persistent and stop spending so much money on Japan at the moment, focus on NA and Europe and eventually they'll gain a foothold in Japan. But right now, games have jack squat to do with the Xbox's success or lack thereof in Japan.

Gaining japanese support is integral to rounding out the 360's game library. Even if the games produced do not move units in Japan, they will still broaden the appeal of the console and add some much needed diversity.

People in NA and EU like japanese games as well, so it's in MS's best interest to try and kill 2 birds with one stone here.

Any way you look at it, they're doing well, I count ~24 RPG's for xbox within 2 years, that's miles beyond xbox1.

[Shifty Geezer]

Originally Posted by Arsynic

It will take 20 years of persistence for Xbox to become a viable brand in Japan. That's just the way it is. MS has to be persistent and stop spending so much money on Japan at the moment, focus on NA and Europe and eventually they'll gain a foothold in Japan. But right now, games have jack squat to do with the Xbox's success or lack thereof in Japan.

So for 20 years MS should sell an unwanted console in that territory, and then all of a sudden the Japanese will want XBox? If it's a twenty year project, it'll be twenty years of massaging the market, creating reasons for them to consider XBox. Not making any effort will actually decrease long-term interest, because in the future, the public will think to themselves 'oh look, another of those XBox things. I wonder what they do? Now where's Nintendo's Virtual Beach-ball controller based console?'

[V3]

MS could take what Nintendo is doing with the DS (perhaps also Wii) and target old people and forget about going into the section that the PS3 is targeting.

[ZiFF]

Originally Posted by RancidLunchmeat

It makes no sense to divert resources to try to gain a larger presense in the smallest market..

If you dont win in Japan.. you will never win overall.

[RancidLunchmeat]

Originally Posted by ZiFF

If you dont win in Japan.. you will never win overall.

Based on what, pray tell?

The sales figures? Uhh.. Not even close. Japan/Asia is the smallest market (if you're segmenting them into three.. NA, UK/Europe and Japan/Asia). Doing well in any market will be a help, but at what cost?

Taking 5% of the Japan/Asia market is peanuts compared to taking 5% of the NA or UK/Europe market. So which market should a company focus on?

I'd say the exact opposite of all these suppositions is true. That Sony/Nintendo need to focus on the NA and UK/Europe market. They get their marketshare in Japan/Asia almost by default.. because they work with "local" game designers and have a good feeling for their "local" market.

For the last two generations, Sony got the UK/Europe and NA markets by default as well. They were competing only against other Asian entities who didn't have any special "local insight" into the NA or UK/European markets, but because they were the only game in town, developers had no choice but to develope games on their consoles.

In short... Sony never had to 'court' NA/UK developers because their sales figures prevented that. If they can match their early sales figures from the last two generations, they won't have to here either. But to say that MS needs to 'court' Asian developers to gain market share as a defacto goal in becoming the dominate console is just silly.

The numbers simply don't justify that assumption.

5% of the UK/European market is much greater than 5% of the Asian market. If MS can get that 5% of the UK/European market with no greater expense than gaining market share anywhere else (IE: advertising, price breaks, etc.. globally recognized incentives), why would they devote any significant amount of resources to gain a lesser 5% in Asia?

The ROI simply isn't there. Hell, MS would need to damn near take the entire Asian market in order to justify a diversion of resources that lead to no improvement in the UK/European and NA markets.

Bottom line: UK/European and NA markets are far more important, that's where the resources should be spent to increase market share. If the Asian market share can be increased without significant or noticable diversion of resources.. fine, sure.. 5% of any market is better than 0%.

But that isn't the case. Throwing $10M at an Asian Design Major (heheh.. Clerks II is coming out), is $10M that wasn't spent advertising or offering price breaks or bundles or whatever in the other two major markets.

[StefanS]

Originally Posted by ZiFF

If you dont win in Japan.. you will never win overall.

That's a nonsense comment, just as saying the Japanese market doesn't matter ast all. To gain a serious foothold in the Japanese market MS needs the major franchises just as Dragon Quest or Final Fantasy, not just its spin offs, more importantely they need them exculsivly. Only then will non-major Japanese developers switch platforms, which would lead to a more mainstream support for X??? in Japan.

[Powderkeg]

Originally Posted by hupfinsgack

That's a nonsense comment, just as saying the Japanese market doesn't matter ast all.

I wouldn't say the Japanese market doesn't matter at all, but I would say it's importance in the world-wide market is both minimal and shrinking.

To put the Japanese market into comparison, in the US the Xbox 360 has sold more units between January and today than the PS2, GCN, Xbox, and Xbox 360 combined have sold in Japan during the same time.

[pc999]

Originally Posted by Powderkeg

To put the Japanese market into comparison, in the US the Xbox 360 has sold more units between January and today than the PS2, GCN, Xbox, and Xbox 360 combined have sold in Japan during the same time.

To be fair XB/XB360 barely sells anything that worth looking, GC is dead too and PS2 probably already had satured the market anyway and many probably will just wait for PS3 instead of buying other console, on the other side the 360 had been doing very well.

Only with total number we could know it.

[Powderkeg]

Originally Posted by pc999

To be fair XB/XB360 barely sells anything that worth looking, GC is dead too and PS2 probably already had satured the market anyway and many probably will just wait for PS3 instead of buying other console, on the other side the 360 had been doing very well.

Only with total number we could know it.

OK....

For the PS2...

Cumulative console shipments by territory give a total of 40.65 million units in North America, 37.14 million units in Europe/other PAL territories and 22.22 million units in Japan and other Asian countries.

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/new...php?story=7342



Gamecube...

Japan: 4.00, The Americas: 12.17, Other: 4.68

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nintendo_GameCube


Xbox...

Microsoft has shipped 22 million consoles to retailers worldwide at the end of FY 2005
North America, where an estimated 13.5 million
It is estimated about 450,000 units have been sold in Japan

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox

And from that we can conclude that 8,050,000 units were sold in Europe.


Total:

North America = 66.32 Million consoles sold
Europe = 49.87 Million consoles sold
Japan = 26.67 million consoles sold (*Actually lower since the PS2 number is for all of Asia, not just Japan)


The Japanese market is only slightly more than half the size of the European market, only about 40% of the US market size, and less than 25% of the global market.

[Inane_Dork]

As a small addition, it's important to note that the Japanese market is not just the smallest of the top 3 markets but it is also the most unique. The games that do well there rarely do well elsewhere and the games the do well elsewhere rarely do well in Japan. So that certainly does not help Japan's influence. Maybe when China becomes a big video game market that will change. Maybe not.

[StefanS]

Originally Posted by Inane_Dork

As a small addition, it's important to note that the Japanese market is not just the smallest of the top 3 markets but it is also the most unique. The games that do well there rarely do well elsewhere and the games the do well elsewhere rarely do well in Japan. So that certainly does not help Japan's influence.

I am sorry, but that is wrong.

2005 Top 10

1  	Doubutsu no Mori DS [Animal Crossing: Wild World]  	Nintendo  	NDS  	ETC  	1,169,757
2 	Gran Turismo 4 	Sony 	PS2 	RAC 	1,066,749
3 	Kahashima Ryuuta Kyouju no Nouo Kitaeru Otona DS Training 	Nintendo 	NDS 	ETC 	1,011,341
4 	Nintendogs Shiba / Dach / Chihuahua & Friends 	Nintendo 	NDS 	B.SLG 	965,665
5 	World Soccer Winning Eleven 9 	Konami 	PS2 	SPT 	923,288
6 	Shin Sangoku Musou 4 	Koei 	PS2 	ACT 	917,985
7 	Yawaraka Atamajuku 	Nintendo 	NDS 	ETC 	875,371
8 	Tamagotchi no Puchi Puchi Omisetchi 	Bandai 	NDS 	SLG 	770,391
9 	Kingdom Hearts II 	Square Enix 	PS2 	A.RPG 	737,391
10 	Mario Kart DS 	Nintendo 	NDS 	RAC 	669,575


2004 Top 10

1  	Dragon Quest VIII: Sora to Umi to Daichi to Norowareshi Himegimi  	Square Enix  	PS2  	RPG  	3,327,167  	3,327,167
2 	Pocket Monsters Fire Red / Leaf Green 	Pokemon 	GBA 	RPG 	2,392,005 	2,392,005
3 	Dragon Quest V: Tenkuu no Hanayome 	Square Enix 	PS2 	RPG 	1,611,974 	1,611,974
4 	Pocket Monsters Emerald 	Pokemon 	GBA 	RPG 	1,375,233 	1,375,233
5 	World Soccer Winning Eleven 8 	Konami 	PS2 	SPT 	1,042,234 	1,042,234
6 	Sengoku Musou 	Koei 	PS2 	ACT 	1,024,253 	1,024,253
7 	Jissen Pachislot Shinshouhou! Hokuto no Ken 	Sammy 	PS2 	SLG 	916,765 	916,765
8 	Metal Gear Solid 3 Snake Eater 	Konami 	PS2 	ACT 	694,307 	694,307
9 	Gran Turismo 4 	Sony 	PS2 	RAC 	663,543 	663,543


2003 Top 10

1  	Final Fanasy X-2  	Square Enix  	PS2  	RPG  	1,941,727  	1,941,727
2 	**Pocket Monster Ruby / Sapphire 	Pokemon 	GBA 	RPG 	1,704,458 	4,902,220
3 	Shin Sangoku Musou 3 	Koei 	PS2 	ACT 	1,178,455 	1,178,455
4 	World Soccer Winning Eleven 7 	Konami 	PS2 	SPT 	1,085,082 	1,085,082
5 	Everybody's Golf 4 	Sony 	PS2 	SPT 	875,252 	875,252
6 	Dragon Quest Monsters: Caravan Heart 	Square Enix 	GBA 	RPG 	593,458 	593,458
7 	Mobile Suit Gundam: Megurial Sora 	Bandai 	PS2 	ACT 	577,972 	577,972
8 	Mario Kart: Double Dash!! 	Nintendo 	GC 	RAC 	567,849 	567,849
9 	Made in Wario 	Nintendo 	GBA 	ETC 	556,806 	556,806
10 	Dragon Ball Z: Budokai 	Bandai 	PS2 	FIG 	543,312 	543,312


2002 Top 10

1  	Pocket Monster Ruby / Sapphire  	Nintendo  	GBA  	RPG  	3,197,762
2 	Winning Eleven 6 	Konami 	PS2 	SPT 	1,115,707
3 	Onimusha 2 	Capcom 	PS2 	ACT 	1,002,968
4 	Kingdom Hearts 	Square 	PS2 	A.RPG 	838,323
5 	Shin Sangoku Musou 2 Mushouden 	Koei 	PS2 	ACT 	688,655
6 	Mario Party 4 	Nintendo 	GC 	ETC 	677,890
7 	Super Mario Sunshine 	Nintendo 	GC 	ACT 	677,440
8 	Tales of Destiny 2 	Namco 	PS2 	RPG 	662,699
9 	Super Robot Taisen Impact 	Banpresto 	PS2 	S.RPG 	632,536
10 	From TV Animation One Piece Grand Battle 2 	Bandai 	PS 	FIG 	545,506


2001 Top 10

1  	Final Fantasy X  	Square  	PS2  	RPG  	2,434,015  	2,434,015
2 	Gran Turismo 3 A-Spec 	Sony 	PS2 	RAC 	1,656,959 	1,656,959
3 	Dragon Quest Monsters 2: Mysterious Key of Martha: Iru's Adventure 	Enix 	GBC 	RPG 	1,061,879 	1,061,879
4 	Dragon Quest IV 	Enix 	PS 	RPG 	1,039,443 	1,039,443
5 	Onimusha 	Capcom 	PS2 	ACT 	982,875 	982,875
6 	Everybody's Golf 3 	Sony 	PS2 	SPT 	871,167 	871,167
7 	Super Smash Bros. DX 	Nintendo 	GC 	FIG 	838,237 	838,237
8 	Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty 	Konami 	PS2 	ACT 	750,560 	750,560
9 	Pocket Monster Crystal 	Nintendo 	GBC 	RPG 	749,863 	749,863
10 	Super Mario Advance 	Nintendo 	GBA 	ACT 	747,792 	747,792

Apart from a few franchise, all of the bestsellers did well on a global scale.

Moreover, like it or not, the Japanese market is key to attract the big Japanese developers.

[StefanS]

Originally Posted by Powderkeg

Total:

North America = 66.32 Million consoles sold
Europe = 49.87 Million consoles sold
Japan = 26.67 million consoles sold (*Actually lower since the PS2 number is for all of Asia, not just Japan)


The Japanese market is only slightly more than half the size of the European market, only about 40% of the US market size, and less than 25% of the global market.

That is not the size of the market, but the total number of consoles sold.

[Shifty Geezer]

Originally Posted by hupfinsgack

That is not the size of the market, but the total number of consoles sold.

hupfinsgack has a point. Market is more software and profitability. If the EU console base buys on average 1 title a year per console, and the Japanese buys 5, you see the importance of the Jap market for revenue. I don't know what software sales is like per region, and how it various over consoles too.

Also, though Japan may be a smaller market, it has strong importance in it's software output. Looking at key PS2 titles in the west, there's plenty of showcase Japanese titles along with showcase western titles, that add depth to the library that XB is severly lacking. Western devs are often hung up on shooters and racers. Adventure, bizarro RPGs, and those odd quirky games we'd never even think of like Katamari, come mostly from the East. A key reason I am interested in PS3 over XB360 is the likely software library. PS has always been wide and balanced. XB has been rather limited. Winning over Japanese devs I think essential to maximizing a console's wider appeal. All territories have something to offer in games, like movies. US produces the Hollywood blastfest and massive glitz. The EU produces low-key gritty thug-flicks, romantic comedies and off-the-wall continental works. Japan produces kung-fu movies and men-in-rubber-dinosaurs. Given a choice between a DVD player that plays films produced by only two territories, and one that plays movies produced by all territories, which would most people choose?

Turning your back on a territory would not be good IMO, and even though the ROI from other territories might get more unit sales, I think you'd be damaging the worldwide image of your console saying you were giving up a territory to your rivals.

[Hardknock]

Originally Posted by Powderkeg

OK....

For the PS2...



http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/new...php?story=7342



Gamecube...



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nintendo_GameCube


Xbox...



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox

And from that we can conclude that 8,050,000 units were sold in Europe.


Total:

North America = 66.32 Million consoles sold
Europe = 49.87 Million consoles sold
Japan = 26.67 million consoles sold (*Actually lower since the PS2 number is for all of Asia, not just Japan)


The Japanese market is only slightly more than half the size of the European market, only about 40% of the US market size, and less than 25% of the global market.

Nice research and very interesting. Thanks!

[Hardknock]

Originally Posted by hupfinsgack

That is not the size of the market, but the total number of consoles sold.

I'm pretty sure that even on a software scale that NA and EU both dwarf Japan... (excluding handhelds of course! )

I just remember seeing a chart of the all time best sellers there for the past gen and I was shocked at how low the sales for all the titles were. NA and EU have far more million sellers than Japan.

Not saying Japan developers are not important. They by far make some of, if not the, best games in the industry. But from a pure marketshare perspective I don't think they are of dire importantance aslong as you get key Japanese dev support for the rest of the world.

[PARANOiA]

Trying to breathe a little life into the original article... is there anyone who sees a single game or handful or games that may "save Japan" for the 360?

I'm more looking for an announced title that looks like it will kick serious arse in the Japanese market, not simply stating "it needs a FF/DQ title". Personally, I can't. Enchant Arms looks average at best in terms of innovation and fun. The other JRPG's in the pipeline look similarly dirivative.

Not even a Ninja Gaiden/Panzer Dragoon game annouced either