[liolio]

Originally Posted by Rangers

2011 is my guess for MS. Sony is more of a wild card, their system is a year newer, and their thinking is harder to gauge.

I think it's clear 09 is out for MS next gen. So 010 would be absolute earliest, but doesnt make sense due to various factors. So I look at 010/011/012 with 011 being the sweet spot..

Personally I think MS should delay their next gen as long as possible though..

I agree ith your figures, especially as I think that Ms has a lot of interest in keeping the 360/PC dynamic. No new xbox could put pressure on the take over of dx11 and thus the relevance of 7 in the gaming community.

[Squilliam]

Originally Posted by liolio

I agree ith your figures, especially as I think that Ms has a lot of interest in keeping the 360/PC dynamic. No new xbox could put pressure on the take over of dx11 and thus the relevance of 7 in the gaming community.

But if the Xbox evolution is coming out say in 2011, wouldn't we be looking at DX12 or 12.5 type hardware?

[almighty]

Originally Posted by Squilliam

But if the Xbox evolution is coming out say in 2011, wouldn't we be looking at DX12 or 12.5 type hardware?

Nope, very big chance we would be well into 2 or 3rd generation DX11 hardware

[Shifty Geezer]

Will there even be such a thing as DX12 hardware, or will it all be programmable FLOPS by then?

[Squilliam]

Originally Posted by almighty

Nope, very big chance we would be well into 2 or 3rd generation DX11 hardware

Then it would be a custom design! Im sure they could spare the developer effort, especially if its kind of towards where Direct X 12 is going anyway.

[Squilliam]

I was wondering, since there was talk on the Larrabee thread about fixed function hardware vs generalised hardware, does that apply to the CPU/GPU mix here? Would it be better to have one type of hardware say a multi-purpose hardware configuration than having a seperate CPU and GPU?

[Tahir2]

Would it be better to have one type of hardware say a multi-purpose hardware configuration than having a seperate CPU and GPU?

Answer it depends on what your priority is. For a console the major priority is going to cost/performance.

If it takes double the cost to get the same performance as a separate CPU and GPU design (by separate we are talking about two different sets of tools/languages) then it is better to have the kind of console design we have now.

Moving to multi-purpose hardware will happen as GPU's become more "CPU-like" (just like audio is now a function of the host CPU rather than a discrete chip) but I am not sure if that will be feasible cost/performance in 2011/2012.

[Rendszer]

Well, my thoughts in this is that the next jump perhaps is not so so much needed techwise.
The problem is of course the increase of development cost. This gen, it is alreadyvery expensive and not all publishers/devs make profit.

So business wise, perhaps it does not make so much sense to create an over the top expensive machine, that is expensive to develop for, but also is sold at a loss from the get go.

So perhaps the tech-jump for 360 and PS3 to next is perhaps enough it is only 2-3 times more powerful but also, the tech has to be easy to work with.

I was thinking something along the lines of the latest Phenom x4 core with the help from a dual core GPU of today for a 2011 console. (that kind of power, more or less)

If you want to reach so many people as possible you have to begin with something cheap but also something different, which is what Nintendo did. This can be taken to the next step and the machine has to be flexible and "open" for new ways of interactions.

But yeah, perhaps the jump should not be as high, and to try and release a machine as cheap but still powerful as possible. If it can offer different ways of interacting with the software, ways that are fun and make sense.. then it is even better...

[liolio]

Originally Posted by Rendszer

Well, my thoughts in this is that the next jump perhaps is not so so much needed techwise.
The problem is of course the increase of development cost. This gen, it is alreadyvery expensive and not all publishers/devs make profit.

So business wise, perhaps it does not make so much sense to create an over the top expensive machine, that is expensive to develop for, but also is sold at a loss from the get go.

So perhaps the tech-jump for 360 and PS3 to next is perhaps enough it is only 2-3 times more powerful but also, the tech has to be easy to work with.

I was thinking something along the lines of the latest Phenom x4 core with the help from a dual core GPU of today for a 2011 console. (that kind of power, more or less)

If you want to reach so many people as possible you have to begin with something cheap but also something different, which is what Nintendo did. This can be taken to the next step and the machine has to be flexible and "open" for new ways of interactions.

But yeah, perhaps the jump should not be as high, and to try and release a machine as cheap but still powerful as possible. If it can offer different ways of interacting with the software, ways that are fun and make sense.. then it is even better...

Actually a single RV740 would easily fit the bill for the figures you give
It's at least three time more powerful/efficient at his job than xenos (if you pass on extra bandwidth granted by the edram).
Anyway I think that manufacturers will come with something better even if they plan for something cheap.

[Squilliam]

Originally Posted by liolio

Actually a single RV740 would easily fit the bill for the figures you give
It's at least three time more powerful/efficient at his job than xenos (if you pass on extra bandwidth granted by the edram).
Anyway I think that manufacturers will come with something better even if they plan for something cheap.

The Jasper Xbox 360 has a 121mm^2 GPU @65nm, so im sure they could easily squeeze something like the RV740 into a new design built as of now. It fits the thermal profile one would want from a console as well.

[liolio]

Originally Posted by Squilliam

The Jasper Xbox 360 has a 121mm^2 GPU @65nm, so im sure they could easily squeeze something like the RV740 into a new design built as of now. It fits the thermal profile one would want from a console as well.

Yes if somebody were to enter the market now a rv740 would easily find its place in the design . I suspect they would use a downclocked version of the chip as the chip is still a bit too power hungry and warm to find its place in a tiny box.
A system consisting of a downclocked/custom version of a rv740 say a random PPC quadcore and 2 giga of ram would have really significant performance advantage over actual system and it could be reasonably priced (~ps3 price). I wouldn't discuss of its possible success tho but it would be a very potent system. 720p is ~30% less pixel than the really standard 1280*1024 used by quiet some PC gamer and that games would be likely to be meant to run at 30fps I think that quiet some devs team would amazed us.
It would be interesting to run some benches of RV740 running some popular games in 720p (if the drivers allow obviously).

[Rangers]

Originally Posted by liolio

Yes if somebody were to enter the market now a rv740 would easily find its place in the design . I suspect they would use a downclocked version of the chip as the chip is still a bit too power hungry and warm to find its place in a tiny box.
A system consisting of a downclocked/custom version of a rv740 say a random PPC quadcore and 2 giga of ram would have really significant performance advantage over actual system and it could be reasonably priced (~ps3 price). I wouldn't discuss of its possible success tho but it would be a very potent system. 720p is ~30% less pixel than the really standard 1280*1024 used by quiet some PC gamer and that games would be likely to be meant to run at 30fps I think that quiet some devs team would amazed us.
It would be interesting to run some benches of RV740 running some popular games in 720p (if the drivers allow obviously).

The problem is it would be a tweener system. It would be powerful now, but in 2-3 years when it's just started gaining momentum, the Xbox 3 and PS4 would be ramping up with multiple times more powerful hardware than a Rv740.

These are some of the things ( along with many others) that plagued 3D0, Jaguar, and to an extent even Dreamcast. Sure 3D0 was a lot more powerful than a SNES, making it viable for a time, but it was a lot LESS powerful than a Playstation 1, making it pointless once that came along (beside far inferior software support etc).

[Squilliam]

Originally Posted by liolio

Yes if somebody were to enter the market now a rv740 would easily find its place in the design . I suspect they would use a downclocked version of the chip as the chip is still a bit too power hungry and warm to find its place in a tiny box.
A system consisting of a downclocked/custom version of a rv740 say a random PPC quadcore and 2 giga of ram would have really significant performance advantage over actual system and it could be reasonably priced (~ps3 price). I wouldn't discuss of its possible success tho but it would be a very potent system. 720p is ~30% less pixel than the really standard 1280*1024 used by quiet some PC gamer and that games would be likely to be meant to run at 30fps I think that quiet some devs team would amazed us.
It would be interesting to run some benches of RV740 running some popular games in 720p (if the drivers allow obviously).

Ahh, some developers would probably cut off their pinky finger for more memory in the current generation consoles!

Hmm while we are predicting the next generation tech, its funny really but its tempting to think that the current generation Xbox 360 might get a mid cycle refresh when they go to the slim model to give it some extra life. Say, GDDR5 on a 64bit bus and a slight clock bump to Xenon and Xenos to make every single game thats currently available just play at 30FPS and nothing more.

[pjbliverpool]

Originally Posted by liolio

It would be interesting to run some benches of RV740 running some popular games in 720p (if the drivers allow obviously).

Definatly. In fact I would like to see that done in all PC benchmarks regardless of GPU. Basically, how does the game run at equivilent console settings.

Its nice to know what your getting extra for the money you paid!

[Silent_Buddha]

Originally Posted by Squilliam

Ahh, some developers would probably cut off their pinky finger for more memory in the current generation consoles!

Hmm while we are predicting the next generation tech, its funny really but its tempting to think that the current generation Xbox 360 might get a mid cycle refresh when they go to the slim model to give it some extra life. Say, GDDR5 on a 64bit bus and a slight clock bump to Xenon and Xenos to make every single game thats currently available just play at 30FPS and nothing more.

Interesting thought but could play havok if there was a lazy dev that just relied on the fix speed of the console to do their timing for them. Not that I imagine any dev in this day and age would do something like that.

Added to that, it's not like that would really benefit MS or gamer's really. It isn't like it would be cheaper for MS. And it isn't as if dev's would be able to take advantage of any increase in capability as they still have to consider existing consoles.

I really wouldn't expect MS to do any changes with the X360 that weren't related solely to the UI, reliability or cost of the machine.

As to predicting the future. I'm currently not expecting anything new from anyone except possibly Nintendo before 2012 at the very very earliest. And most probably not for a few years after that.

And thus the only thing I can think of would be more programmable general purpose GPUs that are more like Larrabe.

Possibly with Sony/MS both looking at a CPU/GPU integrated on the same chip.

Regards,
SB

[Squilliam]

Originally Posted by Silent_Buddha

Interesting thought but could play havok if there was a lazy dev that just relied on the fix speed of the console to do their timing for them. Not that I imagine any dev in this day and age would do something like that.

Added to that, it's not like that would really benefit MS or gamer's really. It isn't like it would be cheaper for MS. And it isn't as if dev's would be able to take advantage of any increase in capability as they still have to consider existing consoles.

I really wouldn't expect MS to do any changes with the X360 that weren't related solely to the UI, reliability or cost of the machine.

As to predicting the future. I'm currently not expecting anything new from anyone except possibly Nintendo before 2012 at the very very earliest. And most probably not for a few years after that.

And thus the only thing I can think of would be more programmable general purpose GPUs that are more like Larrabe.

Possibly with Sony/MS both looking at a CPU/GPU integrated on the same chip.

Regards,
SB

With the more complicated hardware, I don't think developers could code based on strict timings anyway. They would have to code to a best and worst case scenario between cache misses, memory vaguaries and multi-threading. With increasing the hardware performance a little, Microsoft may have to give their console a small clock bump anyway to control leakage (This was explained to me, so im not the source of this) and in the end all I was thinking was making a refresh which always gives the software running a best case scenario level of performance to keep games running a little smoother.

Beyond that, with a slim console one of my most wanted features would be the ability to form an ad-hoc local lan connection between two or more wireless equipped consoles so having a few more processor cycles could help here as well. Furthermore as the consoles are the local hosts in games it would help to improve performance for other consoles connected to the local host.

As for new consoles, between Microsoft and Sony we're seeing a proportion of the console market being locked into a particular brand of console by nothing more than peer pressure and staying with their friends. As the networks are not interoperatable it seems to me that the incentive is to release earlier to lock in people to a certain console and reap the network effects with people wanting/needing to buy a console that their friends own. In this case it matters even more than ever what consoles your friends have so an early start and lead becomes even more valuable. This is why I wonder if a late 2010 early 2011 start by Microsoft should be expected?

[ban25]

Originally Posted by Squilliam

As for new consoles, between Microsoft and Sony we're seeing a proportion of the console market being locked into a particular brand of console by nothing more than peer pressure and staying with their friends. As the networks are not interoperatable it seems to me that the incentive is to release earlier to lock in people to a certain console and reap the network effects with people wanting/needing to buy a console that their friends own. In this case it matters even more than ever what consoles your friends have so an early start and lead becomes even more valuable. This is why I wonder if a late 2010 early 2011 start by Microsoft should be expected?

Microsoft already has the network with Xbox Live. Sony's mistake was shipping without something equivalent, let alone a year later.

[TheChefO]

Originally Posted by Squilliam

As for new consoles, between Microsoft and Sony we're seeing a proportion of the console market being locked into a particular brand of console by nothing more than peer pressure and staying with their friends. As the networks are not interoperatable it seems to me that the incentive is to release earlier to lock in people to a certain console and reap the network effects with people wanting/needing to buy a console that their friends own. In this case it matters even more than ever what consoles your friends have so an early start and lead becomes even more valuable. This is why I wonder if a late 2010 early 2011 start by Microsoft should be expected?

Very good point.

Not only for initial purchase of a console, but also for future software purchases. The people that I know that own both a ps3 and xb360 all buy games for the xb360 for the online component to play together or for their gamerscore in single player games...

MS needs to keep their release close to the competition if they expect to keep the lead ... and rolling over the gamerscore will help.

[Squilliam]

Originally Posted by TheChefO

Very good point.

Not only for initial purchase of a console, but also for future software purchases. The people that I know that own both a ps3 and xb360 all buy games for the xb360 for the online component to play together or for their gamerscore in single player games...

MS needs to keep their release close to the competition if they expect to keep the lead ... and rolling over the gamerscore will help.

Releasing early, so long as they get the games ported may be an incredible boon for them simply because if you take current generation graphics levels, but add say 2-4 player coop in the next GTA game on the local console at an increased framerate its something that would get a whole bunch of people together playing the new console, its simply free marketing if they can nail it right.

But yeah, rolling over gamerscore and giving an incentive to current Gold members to upgrade could get them running out the gate really quickly unlike the slow start of this generation.

I kind of wonder if it would make perfect sense to release in early 2011 if they can get say GTA IV xxx city as a near launch game for example. Or something like World of Warcraft and lock in that massive userbase quickly.

[TheChefO]

Originally Posted by Squilliam

I kind of wonder if it would make perfect sense to release in early 2011 if they can get say GTA IV xxx city as a near launch game for example.

Whenever they release, it will be sometime in the Fall/Winter.

I'd expect them to hit 2011 at this point, but I wouldn't be shocked to see 2010.

I'm sure they are keeping an ear to the ground WRT the competition and if any devs are working on "next gen" titles for competing systems.

They can not afford to be last out of the gate, but it also doesn't help if you're the lone soldier and the competition isn't coming out for a couple years.

Nintendo has the difficult task of following up the uber popular Wii with something that will catch the imagination of the casual gaming public .... again. HD graphics may just do the trick. Nintendo obviously has the technological disadvantage this gen, so logic says they will release first, but they are still selling rather well at $250, years after it's been available.

They may just overlap the consoles and let them both occupy store shelves at the same time, but this would risk losing the base of customers they currently have by confusing the market.

One simple solution would be to borrow the PC business model and just have WiiHD play the same Wii games, but in HD. No improved textures, or memory, or shaders ... just rendering at 720 (or even 1080).

Developers could keep on with work as usual and customers would have less confusion. Charge a premium for the kit ($350) and be done.


Sony IMO has the easiest road forward ... I'm not sure why there was/is word of them abandoning Cell as it is the key to future success for them. IF Nvidia is no longer a good business partner to work with, they can get ATI to whip something up.

Developing the extended PS4 should cost significantly less than ps3 and the initial price shouldn't be a deterrent this time around. It's all about timing and dev support ...

[Brimstone]

Originally Posted by 3dilettante

I'm waiting on solid news on Charlie's last news bombshell concerning a Larrabee in PS4 before buying into a speculation piece where he doesn't have a source other than himself.

Well it does look like Sony is decreasing funding to nVidia regarding certain development contracts.

CPB. CPB revenue decreased by 72% to $11.9 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2010, compared to $42.5 million for the first quarter of fiscal year 2009. The overall decrease in CPB revenue is primarily driven by a combination of decreases in revenue from our cell phone products, decreases in revenue from certain contractual development arrangements with Sony Computer Entertainment, or SCE, and a drop in royalties from SCE due to lower seasonal sales of PS3 Playstations.

http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=57112



To me it seems likely the PS4 will be Larrabee2 based. Intel obviously desires a console contract to help get more game developers on-board with their software model.

[Shifty Geezer]

Why woudn't they get more luck with MS? The way things are set up now, Sony would prefer Cell+Stuff, whereas MS are more freeroaming. So Intel would do well to court MS with more chance of success, no?

[3dilettante]

There's not much substance to a statement that was purposefully made to give nothing other than the information that there was a revenue decrease.

Nothing was confirmed to have ended, nothing was confirmed as being unplanned or planned.

A more definite hint would be discussion of the ending of certain contracts, but that unfortunately would be too specific.

[Brimstone]

When you take into account the rumors swirling about Larrabee going into the PS4, and now a decrease in revenue from undisclosed contracts at nVidia, a breadcrumb trail is starting to manifest on the path to next-gen Playstation hardware. I thought Sony already pulled their engineers from the Austin CELL lab?


Next, Sony needs to split the sticks on the controller, improve the triggers, and put in next-gen rumble technology from Immersion (they paid for it afterall). This would help them get back onto the warpath.

[nAo]

Does the CELL lab still exist?