[dukmahsik]

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=12639

They really need to up the manufacturing IMO.

[Hardknock]

5 million sold in just 6 months is not bad at all.

[msia2k75]

Only? Well it's not that bad heh. However, they need to sell around these numbers. Below would be disappointing.

[Hardknock]

Originally Posted by msia2k75

Only? Well it's not that bad heh. However, they need to sell around these numbers. Below would be disappointing.

For a $400 console it's very impressive. If you take a look at the PS2 launch sales, they were roughly the same. It's not until price-drops that the mainstream start buying a console anyway.

[Titanio]

Originally Posted by Hardknock

If you take a look at the PS2 launch sales, they were roughly the same. It's not until price-drops that the mainstream start buying a console anyway.

Actually, no. If you start counting from the end of 2000 - and we should, to be fair, because it was only then that PS2 was available in all 3 territories - from that time, Dec 31 2000 to June 30 2001, Sony shipped 8.55m units. If you count from the European launch, to be more precise, the figure would be well over 10m (the overall total at that point was circa 15m, but I'm obviously excluding sales prior to the last european launch to come to the >10m figure, to try and normalise the comparison with x360's 3-territory expectations).

[3roxor]

I wonder how long it will take for the PS3 to be the best selling next-gen console.

[scooby_dooby]

Originally Posted by 3roxor

I wonder how long it will take for the PS3 to be the best selling next-gen console.

LOL, you say that like it's a foregone conclusion.

Whichever console becomes "best-selling" will depend on the game libraries, like it always has in the past.

4.5-5.5 is pretty damn good for June I think. Puts them on track for 9 or 10million by years end with production in full swing. 10million by the end of 2006 has been their goal from the very beginning.

[expletive]

Originally Posted by 3roxor

I wonder how long it will take for the PS3 to be the best selling next-gen console.

Possibly not until the beginning of the NEXT next-gen.

[BTOA]

Originally Posted by 3roxor

I wonder how long it will take for the PS3 to be the best selling next-gen console.

Maybe in 3-4 years.

[Titanio]

Originally Posted by 3roxor

I wonder how long it will take for the PS3 to be the best selling next-gen console.

Month-to-month or total install base?

If we were to look at Sony's PS2 figures as a guide, and scale MS's projections linearly, it should start passing out in mid to late 07 in terms of total userbase Not very reliable, but heh, what answer to this question can be?

[Shifty Geezer]

Originally Posted by Titanio

Actually, no. If you start counting from the end of 2000 - and we should, to be fair, because it was only then that PS2 was available in all 3 territories.

Why only count from all territories? If Sony had released to all territories they would have sold no more than they sold in Japan, because that's as many as they could make. By the time you wait a year for worldwide release, production capabilities have improved. Sales of consoles are sales of consoles, starting from when the console is released, even if only release in Azerbaijan.

5/6 million sounds pretty good for new tech IMO.

[Brimstone]

Halo 3 with a big budget movie tie-in throws a monkey wrench into past statistics and trends imho. Microsoft has marketed the Halo franchies really well, and I'm sure that will continue.

[Titanio]

Originally Posted by Shifty Geezer

Why only count from all territories?

Because it's well over 3 times the market as in Japan-only...?

Originally Posted by Shifty Geezer

By the time you wait a year for worldwide release, production capabilities have improved.

It wasn't quite a year, and I think the impact of this is much less significant than that of having 3 territories to sell in vs 1.

I'm not claiming it's a perfect comparison, but it's as normalised as we can get I think.

[Pozer]

This is all PR. They give a low estimate now so come June they can have a press release stating "xbox 360 doubles forcasts". It builds good press in the future. It a PR interest bearing bank account. It will create free advertisement and make the x360 seem like the hot summer item.


The actuall number will be higher. Mark my words. It's pr bs.

The x360 will have a good launch. They don't have a killer app game but neither did the ps2. They need one before the ps3 launches to win next gen.

[Shifty Geezer]

Originally Posted by Titanio

Because it's well over 3 times the market as in Japan-only...?

I'm not claiming it's a perfect comparison, but it's as normalised as we can get I think.

I don't understand. A company invents a console, manufactures and sells it. The manufacture n million in a given timeframe. Sony made...what...3-4 million PS2's in 6 months? I've no idea what the figure is. MS are hoping to make 4-5 million. Whether those consoles are shipped all around the world or piled up in a warehouse, that's still the number they make, and MS seem to be heading for about the same amount made as PS2. They're just spreading them a deal thinner.

[ERP]

Originally Posted by Shifty Geezer

I don't understand. A company invents a console, manufactures and sells it. The manufacture n million in a given timeframe. Sony made...what...3-4 million PS2's in 6 months? I've no idea what the figure is. MS are hoping to make 4-5 million. Whether those consoles are shipped all around the world or piled up in a warehouse, that's still the number they make, and MS seem to be heading for about the same amount made as PS2. They're just spreading them a deal thinner.

I would tend to agree, supply in the first 6 months is largely limited by how many you can make not how many you can sell.

[Gholbine]

Originally Posted by Pozer

This is all PR. They give a low estimate now so come June they can have a press release stating "xbox 360 doubles forcasts". It builds good press in the future. It a PR interest bearing bank account. It will create free advertisement and make the x360 seem like the hot summer item.


The actuall number will be higher. Mark my words. It's pr bs.

The x360 will have a good launch. They don't have a killer app game but neither did the ps2. They need one before the ps3 launches to win next gen.

Good point.

[Powderkeg]

Originally Posted by Titanio

It wasn't quite a year, and I think the impact of this is much less significant than that of having 3 territories to sell in vs 1.

And that is the flaw in your thinking.

The first 6 months the PS2 was out it suffered from major supply problems. If they had released world-wide simultaneously like MS did, they wouldn't have been able to produce any more consoles than they did. The only difference would have been them shipping fewer consoles to each reason.

Your little idea is flawed because you are making the incorrect assumption that these numbers are low, and that they are only what MS wants to ship, rather than the limits of what MS is capable of producing. Sony won't ship this many consoles this fast when they launch because they can't produce more than this either. One region or all 3 is irrelevent, this is all they can produce.

If anything, Sony will ship fewer PS3's in the same amount of time because they are likely to have more production problems than MS.

[Titanio]

Originally Posted by Shifty Geezer

I don't understand. A company invents a console, manufactures and sells it. The manufacture n million in a given timeframe. Sony made...what...3-4 million PS2's in 6 months? I've no idea what the figure is. MS are hoping to make 4-5 million. Whether those consoles are shipped all around the world or piled up in a warehouse, that's still the number they make, and MS seem to be heading for about the same amount made as PS2. They're just spreading them a deal thinner.

Will you make the same for three markets as you would for one, though? I don't think you're guaranteed to sell everything you manufacture, by the way, beyond the first couple of million (or even up to that point!).

I'll get picked up on this, so before I say it I'll state that I'm GUESSING here, but I think it's very possible X360 is easier to manufacture than PS2 was starting out, which might offset your point a little about manufacturability at launch vs 9 months later etc.

Originally Posted by Powderkeg

And that is the flaw in your thinking.

The first 6 months the PS2 was out it suffered from major supply problems. If they had released world-wide simultaneously like MS did, they wouldn't have been able to produce any more consoles than they did. The only difference would have been them shipping fewer consoles to each reason.

Your little idea is flawed because you are making the incorrect assumption that these numbers are low, and that they are only what MS wants to ship, rather than the limits of what MS is capable of producing. Sony won't ship this many consoles this fast when they launch because they can't produce more than this either. One region or all 3 is irrelevent, this is all they can produce.

If anything, Sony will ship fewer PS3's in the same amount of time because they are likely to have more production problems than MS.

We'll have to agree to disagree. I think your market size is at least as big a point here as your supply. If MS restricted themselves to one market - say Japan, or even their strongest, the US - I don't think they'd sell that many systems, or ship that many even. So if you don't think you can make the comparison my way, I certainly don't think you can make it the other way (comparing to only Japanese numbers for PS2's first 6 months).

[Guden Oden]

Originally Posted by Pozer

They need one before the ps3 launches to win next gen.

Only ONE to secure the entire next gen? Whoah, sony might as well pack up and go home then!

[Tarkin]"I think you overestimate their chances!"[/Tarkin]

[3roxor]

Originally Posted by scooby_dooby

LOL, you say that like it's a foregone conclusion.

Whichever console becomes "best-selling" will depend on the game libraries, like it always has in the past.

4.5-5.5 is pretty damn good for June I think. Puts them on track for 9 or 10million by years end with production in full swing. 10million by the end of 2006 has been their goal from the very beginning.

Are you really laughing out loud..? anyway it's all about the quality difference for me. Looking at the past I expect the PS3 to come on top and it's only a matter of time but how much?

[Platon]

Originally Posted by Titanio

Will you make the same for three markets as you would for one, though? I don't think you're guaranteed to sell everything you manufacture, by the way, beyond the first couple of million (or even up to that point!).

I'll get picked up on this, so before I say it I'll state that I'm GUESSING here, but I think it's very possible X360 is easier to manufacture than PS2 was starting out, which might offset your point a little about manufacturability at launch vs 9 months later etc.



We'll have to agree to disagree. I think your market size is at least as big a point here as your supply. If MS restricted themselves to one market - say Japan, or even their strongest, the US - I don't think they'd sell that many systems, or ship that many even. So if you don't think you can make the comparison my way, I certainly don't think you can make it the other way (comparing to only Japanese numbers for PS2's first 6 months).

They are talking about shiped consoles, not sold, so what does it then matter in how many territories they launch at?...

[Powderkeg]

Originally Posted by Titanio

Will you make the same for three markets as you would for one, though? I don't think you're guaranteed to sell everything you manufacture, by the way, beyond the first couple of million (or even up to that point!).

I'll get picked up on this, so before I say it I'll state that I'm GUESSING here, but I think it's very possible X360 is easier to manufacture than PS2 was starting out, which might offset your point a little about manufacturability at launch vs 9 months later etc.



We'll have to agree to disagree. I think your market size is at least as big a point here as your supply. If MS restricted themselves to one market - say Japan, or even their strongest, the US - I don't think they'd sell that many systems, or ship that many even. So if you don't think you can make the comparison my way, I certainly don't think you can make it the other way (comparing to only Japanese numbers for PS2's first 6 months).

You are forgetting that MS is having shortages of supply even for it's launch. It could sell more than these numbers if it had the supply. Supply is the limiting factor in the first year, especially during a holiday launch.

I'll also point out here that within 9 months of the PS2 launch in Japan it was out in every region as well and had gone through the holiday shopping season in both the US and Europe, yet it still shipped less.

In fact, if you go by the high-end numbers by MS and assume the same production for the next 6 months then after a full year MS will have shipped more 360's than Sony shipped PS2's in it's first year.

The limit here is production, not available market.

[Titanio]

Originally Posted by Platon

They are talking about shiped consoles, not sold, so what does it then matter in how many territories they launch at?...

They would not manufacture or ship as many consoles if they were launching in only one territory, you can be absolutely sure of that.

The size of your market and expected demand absolutely play a role in the numbers. As does
"manufacturability".

Originally Posted by Powderkeg

You are forgetting that MS is having shortages of supply even for it's launch.

I'm not forgetting that. I simply don't think they'd ship the same number of consoles in one territory as in three for the same period.

Originally Posted by Powderkeg

I'll also point out here that within 9 months of the PS2 launch in Japan it was out in every region as well and had gone through the holiday shopping season in both the US and Europe, yet it still shipped less.

Less than what? Shipments to the end of its first year was 6.4m.

Originally Posted by Powderkeg

In fact, if you go by the high-end numbers by MS and assume the same production for the next 6 months then after a full year MS will have shipped more 360's than Sony shipped PS2's in it's first year.

A year of being in 3 territories versus 1 year in Japan and 4-6 months in Europe/US for PS2. And you'd be talking about 0.4m more

Originally Posted by Powderkeg

The limit here is production, not available market.

The market you're aiming at undoubtedly affects numbers. There is an upper limit on how much each market can take in a period. And again - you are not guaranteed for first Xm of sales immediately. People often say with regards to every system that for the first few months you'll sell as many as you can make, but this hasn't always been true, even in recent cases (e.g. PSP did not sell out immediately).

I'm also wondering about X360's manufacturability. The DVD drive ain't gonna hold it back. IBM claims it'll easily meet demand from MS. Xenos is, according to hints from here and elsewhere, producing good results. So where's the bottleneck? I don't think it's trivial, obviously, but someone made the point earlier, and it is likely true, that PS2s were easier to manufacture 9 months after its launch than at launch - but I wonder how much more difficult X360 is for its time vs that same PS2 9 months post-launch.

[expletive]

Originally Posted by Titanio

I'm also wondering about X360's manufacturability. The DVD drive ain't gonna hold it back. IBM claims it'll easily meet demand from MS. Xenos is, according to hints from here and elsewhere, producing good results. So where's the bottleneck?

My guess would be how fast they can run the conveyor belts and stuff the things into white and green boxes. Isnt that enough of a bottleneck?