[Shifty Geezer]

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...=1331&Itemid=2

2000 Gamers polled in Famitsu.

A new report on Japanese consumers has been published showing detailed next generation console buying plans. It shows that nearly a quarter of games players plan to buy Xbox 360, with 65% opting for PS3 and 36% looking forward to Nintendo Revolution. Bags of great stats inside…

There's an indepth breakdown of opinions, like...

Reasons to buy Revolution

- 80%: I like its download plans
- 42%: I like the Nintendo Wi-Fi feature
- 41.7%: I like the controller’s features
- 40.9%: I like its features
- 37.1%: I like the controller’s design
- 33.2%: I like its design
- 20.6%: etc

The controller isn't the major selling factor here but the download games are big.

Not a hugely extensive survey but it does show XB360 making headway.

[Carl B]

Well, if 24% of the Japanese gaming public does indeed end up buying the 360, that would truly be a massive leap forward for MS. Japan can be fairly fickle though, so I'd want to see a poll after Sony's upcoming events this month as well.

[StefanS]

They said they're interested in buying an X360 box, which is a little different in my opinion. Moreover, those statistics don't display reality.

Just a little example: 25 % have no interest in buying an Xbox360. Among them 24,1% won't switch from the orginal Xbox to the new one. Even assuming that none of the old Xbox users switches to X360 (thus making the proportion of the Xbox owners smaller) that would mean that Xbox gamers are represented with 6,025%. MS doesn't even remotely have that market share in Japan.

That statistic represents more or less a hardcore gamer audience and not the casual Japanese gamer. I would be seriously surprised if MS gained more than 12,5% of the Japanese gaming audience. That would already be a huge surprise IMO.

EDIT corrected the numbers

[NavNucST3]

This has to be the craziest grouping of statistics I've ever seen, this must have been multiples of multiple choice. Does anyone have the famitsu survey?

[Shifty Geezer]

I think it was a checkbox selection. Otherwise all the percentages would add up to 100. The way I read it, taking the stats I've already posted,

36% looking forward to Nintendo Revolution,
- 80%: I like its download plans
- 42%: I like the Nintendo Wi-Fi feature
- 41.7%: I like the controller’s features
- 40.9%: I like its features
- 37.1%: I like the controller’s design
- 33.2%: I like its design
- 20.6%: etc

Out of the 36% looking forward to Rev, 80% of those like the downloads, 42% like the Wifi, and so at least 22% of those who like the downloads ALSO like the WiFi. Another example is that of all those interested in Revolution, only a third cited it's design as something about it that made them want to buy it.

A copy of the questionnaire would be very useful though. I imagine one can help out there if no-one else, him being our Japanese correspondant

[Acert93]

The following were interesting to me...

Reasons not to buy....

PS3: From the beginning I did not want to buy one = 28.4%

Xbox 360: From the beginning I did not want to buy one = 49.3%

Rev: From the beginning I did not want to buy one = 53.4%

My spin? Brand, Brand, Brand. A good majority of Japanese gamers seem pretty convinced on what they will not get long before seeing games. Surprisingly first reactions seem to favor the Xbox over the Revolution. Surprising considering Nintendo's strength in the Japanese market.

Reasons for "wait and see" on the...

PS3: I would like to wait to see what kind of games will come to the PS3 = 76.9%

Xbox 360: I would like to wait to see what kind of games will come to the X360 = 81%

Rev: I would like to wait to see what kind of games will come to the X360 = NOT LISTED.

Rev: I don’t fully understand its features = 72%

My spin? Of those in "wait and see" mode it seems the games are the #1 factor for people considering the Xbox 360 or PS3. So it seems you have some gamers who are pretty sure of their brand of choice long before the games come out and then those who are on the fence waiting for something to convince them to buy a console. Considering 50% of gamers are dismissive of the Xbox 360, compared to 28% of the PS3, and Sony's strong Japanese ties, brands, and support I think anyone can draw a conclusion.

As for Rev... Nintendo seems to have confused people. Once people play some games with the controller I think that will change, but so far the console itself, not the games, are what got people scratching their head. Not a good sign IMO. People want direction. Personally I thought it was pretty clear, but I guess for the casual gamer direction is spelled out in games.

PS3: Are you interested?
In comparison to Xbox 360, 63.2% of consumers absolutely want to buy PS3 with only 5% rejecting it out of hand. 30% want to wait.

Xbox 360: Are you interested?
It showed that 23.9% of gamers are "interested in acquiring an Xbox 360" with 25% saying they have no interest. 40% of respondents are undecided, while 10% "don't care".

Revolution: Are you interested?
- Yes I will: 36%
- Absolutely not: 10.4%
- Not for the moment: 40.6%
- I don’t care: 13%

My spin? 63% absolutely want a PS3. That will only grow as games like FF, Dragon Quest, and so forth get announced. Another 30% are waiting (on games?). So basically 93% of Japanese gamers are on the PS3 bandwagon or contemplating it. And as games come out and "Little Johnny has one, and we like to share games and play together, so we should get the same console" syndrom hits it looks like LANDSLIDE.

The good news for MS? 24% of gamers are interested in inquiring and another 40% are undecided. That means they at least have open minds. Maybe N3, Lost Odyssey, Blue Dragon, etc... can convince some, maybe to pick it up as a 2nd console. MS can only hope because was pre-ordained before the gen even started for Sony to dominate Japan. This is relevant not only because of sales but because of Japanese developer support. As Sony leads Japan they will continue having the ear of Japanese devs, and therefor dominant that style and those genres that they specialize in.

$$$$$$
53.1%: I would consider buying a X360 if its price is lowered. (Wait and See: Xbox 360)
36.3%: it is way too expensive (Reasons to not buy the Xbox 360)

65%: I would like to know its price first. (Wait and See: PS3)
43.1%: its price has not yet been announced (Reasons to not buy the PS3)

My spin? It looks like price is going to be an important factor for a lot of gamers. That is not unusual as console sales usually pick up in year 3 when most consoles get close to the sub-200 price point. I hope they run this pole again after the PS3 price is announced. It will be interesting to see how Japanese consumers value the two systems. The 360 is $350 with HDD, so a PS3--which they prefer for games--with BR should be more value to the typical Japanese gamer at $350. I am just curious to know how high Sony can go before the numbers even out between the two. I am guessing they could go as high as $450 in Japan and Japanese gamers feel it was a better deal due to games+BR. Just a guess of course.

[Carl B]

Good insights Acert! I think maybe the order the percentages were presented in should have been reversed though.

Like, initially one might read and think 28.4% of gamers don't want a PS3, 49.3% a 360, or 53.4% a Rev and think those are the absolutes, when those are the percentage numbers of the 'not interested' subsets of 5% for PS3, 25% for 360, and 10.4% for the Rev.

I know it's nitpicking, but I think some might walk out confused by having read the larger numbers first. You know B3D can often act as ground zero for rumors afterall.

[expletive]

INteresting that 80% of the people who were interested in revolution were interested in its download plans. With the announcement that MS made today with the large library of XBL Arcade titles (many are classics from 3rd parties), i wonder if Japan will take to this new feature as well.

http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showthread.php?t=24604

Otherwise, its good news for MS that at elast there's open minds to the 360, but its cleary still an uphill battle agains tthe PS3.

J

[Shifty Geezer]

At first I couldn't see what XBD was talking about, but he's right. Where it's written 28.4% did not want PS3 from the beginning, that's acutally 28.4% of that 5% that said they weren't going to get one. ie. About 1.5% of the total respondants.

By comparison almost half of the 25% who expressed no interest in XB360 never had any interest, which is about 12.5% of the respondants. That is, when this poll was taken, 1.5% never had any intention of considering PS3, and 12.5% never had any intention of considering XB360. XB360 was actually in a much stronger position than I expected, and very different to what we've been hearing from other surveys.

[Acert93]

Originally Posted by Shifty Geezer

At first I couldn't see what XBD was talking about, but he's right. Where it's written 28.4% did not want PS3 from the beginning, that's acutally 28.4% of that 5% that said they weren't going to get one. ie. About 1.5% of the total respondants.

By comparison almost half of the 25% who expressed no interest in XB360 never had any interest, which is about 12.5% of the respondants. That is, when this poll was taken, 1.5% never had any intention of considering PS3, and 12.5% never had any intention of considering XB360. XB360 was actually in a much stronger position than I expected, and very different to what we've been hearing from other surveys.

I see what he is saying now...

The problem with surveys like this is that they are not "dynamic" and some of the answers/questions are kind of vague. This is why there are some odd overlaps that don't make much sense.

e.g. Do we know that it is only that %5, or does that include the larger % that is also on the fence? Usually such a survey is just a stream of questions on each page.

So you could answer on one page, "I am not interested in the PS3 from the beginning" and then answer, "I am on the fence" on the next page.

Make sense?

Based on the "multiple choice" nature of the test and the categories is seems pretty clear to me that it is not 23% of 5%; but instead the stream of logic in the replies shifts based on how the question is asked.

The Revolution page indicates, to me, that they did not make a direct correlation and limit responses as the categories do not overlap. e.g.

Will you get a rev
1. Yes
2. No
3. Not at the moment
4. Don't care

Expanded questions:
1. Reasons to buy a Rev
2. Reasons not to buy a Rev
3. Wait and see
4. Opinions on the controller

Put another way, I can say "Yes, I will buy revolution" but STILL check answers "Reasons not to buy Revolution"

Small semantic difference, but "Reasons to NOT buy Revolution" and "Reasons why I am not buying Revolution" are different.

Without taking the survey I am not sure if I am right, but the wording, to me, does not indicate that just because you Were/Were Not buying a console did not mean you could not list reasons you Would/Would Not buy a console.

I.e. Would you buy a PC:

Answer: Yes.

Reasons NOT to buy a PC:

Expensive
Fewer AAA games
Limited genres
Poor gamepad support
Hardware underused
Frequent Upgrades required
Buggy games and patches

It seems to me that someone could answer "yes" to part of the quiz and and still give reasons in other places. From the breakdown they are only asking reasons not to buy something, not reasons why YOU are not buying something.

Without the survey hard to say, but that is how I am reading it. I could be wrong.

[StefanS]

Originally Posted by Shifty Geezer

By comparison almost half of the 25% who expressed no interest in XB360 never had any interest, which is about 12.5% of the respondants. That is, when this poll was taken, 1.5% never had any intention of considering PS3, and 12.5% never had any intention of considering XB360. XB360 was actually in a much stronger position than I expected, and very different to what we've been hearing from other surveys.

Shifty, look at my post again: Considering the survey the Xbox would have market share of 6,025% minimum. That means that the survey is not representative. It has more Xbox users percentage wise. Thus, it is more likely to show a better XB360 result than the real Japanese gamers preferences.

[Shifty Geezer]

Originally Posted by Acert93

It seems to me that someone could answer "yes" to part of the quiz and and still give reasons in other places. From the breakdown they are only asking reasons not to buy something, not reasons why YOU are not buying something.

Without the survey hard to say, but that is how I am reading it. I could be wrong.

Yes, without the survey these figures have very little statistical worth beyond comparing like figures.

[Shifty Geezer]

Originally Posted by hupfinsgack

Shifty, look at my post again: Considering the survey the Xbox would have market share of 6,025% minimum. That means that the survey is not representative. It has more Xbox users percentage wise. Thus, it is more likely to show a better XB360 result than the real Japanese gamers preferences.

I'm not arguing over real figures. Just explaining to Acert how the numbers can be read differently.

[expletive]

Originally Posted by hupfinsgack

Shifty, look at my post again: Considering the survey the Xbox would have market share of 6,025% minimum. That means that the survey is not representative. It has more Xbox users percentage wise. Thus, it is more likely to show a better XB360 result than the real Japanese gamers preferences.

The way i read it is that the % s based on 2000 people surveyed, not on 'the entire Japanese gaming population'. So that # is 24% of the 25% out of the 2000 that were surveryed, which means 125 people.

J

[Carl B]

Well Acert, let's revisist this polling issue, since I think I'm indeed seeing it as the '23% of 5%' situation.

Let's use the 360 poll as an example.

The initial statement made is:

XBOX 360

It showed that 23.9% of gamers are "interested in acquiring an Xbox 360" with 25% saying they have no interest. 40% of respondents are undecided, while 10% "don't care".

After that, it goes on to say:

Reasons For Buying Xbox 360

Among the people who want to buy the X360, 82.2%m say they like the controller, while 53.9% like the console’s features. Only 36% say they'll buy the machine because of the launch line-up. Nobody liked the face-plate.

- 82.2%: I like the controller
- 53.9%: I like the console’s features
- 41.9%: I like the idea pf a removable HDD
- 36.4%: I like the line-up
- 23.7%: retro compatibility with the Xbox
- 21.3%: I like the design of the console
- 12.9%: I find it affordable
- 12.7%: I like the network feature
- 17.8%: etc

followed by:

Reasons for NOT buying Xbox 360

It seems that Japanese consumers who don't like Xbox 360, have simply taken against the very idea, Just under 50% said they "just don't like it". A similar number rejected the launch-line-up. 36% thought it too expensive.

- 49.3%: from the beginning, I don’t like it
- 49.1%: the line-up is not interesting
- 36.3%: it is way too expensive
- 24.1%: I won’t switch from the Xbox to the X360
- 14.2%: not interested in the console’s features
- 12.2%: I don’t like its design
- 10.7%: I doubt about the Xbox retro compatibility
- 9.3%: I don’t like the controller
- 4.9%: I don’t care about the removable HDD
- 3.9%: I don’t care about the network
- 2.2%: I don’t care about the face plate

and:

Reasons for 'wait and see' on Xbox 360

Among undecided consumers, the biggest factor is games followed by price.

- 81%: I would like to wait to see what kind of games will come to the X360.
- 53.1%: I would consider buying a X360 if its price is lowered.
- 21.9%: I believe the X360 will not be really retro compatible with the Xbox
- 8.1%: I will try the controller to make my mind
- 4.1%: I would like to see what kind of face plate will be released later

Now, all this leads me to believe that indeed the later stage of questioning is only given to consumers who answered a certain way, and those questions are custom-tailored to their original response. So I truly am seeing a situation where 24% of the people like the 360, and of those 82% like the controller - but of course can answer yay or nay in the other aspects of that sub-poll. The only place where they can only answer one thing or the other is in the intial question: are you interested in the console?

See where I'm going with this? I may or may not be right, but to me this truly seems to be the poll structure in place.

[expletive]

Originally Posted by xbdestroya

Well Acert, let's revisist this polling issue, since I think I'm indeed seeing it as the '23% of 5%' situation.

Let's use the 360 poll as an example.


Now, all this leads me to believe that indeed the later stage of questioning is only given to consumers who answered a certain way, and those questions are custom-tailored to their original response. So I truly am seeing a situation where 24% of the people like the 360, and of those 82% like the controller - but of course can answer yay or nay in the other aspects of that sub-poll. The only place where they can only answer one thing or the other is in the intial question: are you interested in the console?

See where I'm going with this? I may or may not be right, but to me this truly seems to be the poll structure in place.

Yes i agree. It seems theres the main poll which consists of 'which console they want to buy'. Everything subsequent to that, are sub polls of the initial question. So they could either answer yes or no to each follow-up or there was a list that they could 'check all that apply'

J

[scooby_dooby]

Acert, it seems based o how they phrased each set of results, that they only counted valid answers from people in the given categories.

For example, if someone checked "Intend to buy 360" then their choices on reasons not to buy the 360 were not counted. This is indictaed by the sentence "Among the people who want to buy the X360" This indicatesanyone not intending to buy, is not included in numbers.

I think it's a huge jump up for X360, this console was at 2% a few months ago, then 6%, now it seems 24% has at least some interest in picking one up. I don't know if MS could ask for much more than that.

[Acert93]

Well, I guess it looks like my guess I could be wrong is right, so I am right!

Or wrong... or was I? Oh well Nah, sounds like you guys have a better way of reading it. Would be nice to get the survey to be sure. As any scientist would say--statistics without knowing how they were aquired are pretty much useless.

[StefanS]

Originally Posted by scooby_dooby

For example, if someone checked "Intend to buy 360" then their choices on reasons not to buy the 360 were not counted. This is indictaed by the sentence "Among the people who want to buy the X360" This indicatesanyone not intending to buy, is not included in numbers.

Exactly. This poll worked this way:

Want to buy Xbox?
If yes, then please choose among the following choices (multiple choices possible):
   I like the controller
   I like the console’s features
   I like the idea pf a removable HDD
   I like the line-up
   retro compatibility with the Xbox
   I like the design of the console
   I find it affordable
   I like the network feature
   etc
If no, then please choose among the following choices (multiple choices possible):
   from the beginning, I don’t like it
   the line-up is not interesting
   it is way too expensive
   I won’t switch from the Xbox to the X360
   not interested in the console’s features
   I don’t like its design
   I doubt about the Xbox retro compatibility
   I don’t like the controller
   I don’t care about the removable HDD
   I don’t care about the network
   I don’t care about the face plate
If undecided, then please choose among the following choices (multiple choices possible):
   I would like to wait to see what kind of games will come to the X360.
   I would consider buying a X360 if its price is lowered.
   I believe the X360 will not be really retro compatible with the Xbox
   I will try the controller to make my mind
   I would like to see what kind of face plate will be released later

PS3, Revolution analog

[Urian]

Japan is a country where the second hand market is the most important market because allows to the Japanase people to buy old classics for few money.

This is why things like Nintendo Classics are a hit and the Virtual Console in Revolution is interesting, because they can have a lot of old classics for a few bucks and play with them.