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Old 20-Jun-2005, 23:47   #1
Ty
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Default Sony cuts back on PSP manufacturing predictions

Pretty dramatically too, I might add. Not sure if this is related to supply issues (jvd mentioned this earlier) and/or faltering demand.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...4&Itemid=2
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Old 20-Jun-2005, 23:54   #2
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Great thread for the Handheld Forum. :P

Yeah, Sony was a little too aggressive (read: optimistic) in its early PSP predictions. Where are the GAMES? Software sells hardware; Sony should know this by now.

That said, maybe the dearth of games is a ploy to sell UMD movies to all the early adopters out there. Admittedly, I spend as much time on PSP watching video as I do playing games. Heck, I just bought my second UMD movie, Open Water, a half hour ago.

Whatever. If Sony wants to jump-start demand for this system, it's going to need to lower the price of the hardware and ensure a steady flow of games. Yet somehow, it seems the company has taken its eye off the ball as of late, and I'm no longer certain it's going to do what needs to be done anytime soon.
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Old 21-Jun-2005, 10:48   #3
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against every evidence, the usual dommsayers continues to brag about nintendo demise in handheld territory, maybe with news like this they will be tempted to go back into reality.. (i'm surely dreaming)
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Old 21-Jun-2005, 12:38   #4
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People dont want a $250 games portable, Sony's mistake was making a system that does everything.

Nobody cares about UMD movies.

Customers want a handheld that plays true 3D videogames for less than $150.

Such a handheld would run Nintendo out of the arena.

The market is there for a $120-$150 no-frills gaming-only handheld capable of DC/PS2/GC/XB level visuals, the technology is also there.
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Old 21-Jun-2005, 15:25   #5
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Those are quite some generalizations there, Texan.

I think Sony's plan with PSP was to have this puppy sell like gangbusters on the strength of the brand and the machine's sexy good looks. Shame on them for forgetting about the games.

In any case, the original PlayStation was expensive ($299) when it came out, but as the software library built and the price dropped, the machine went on to sell gangbusters. This was likely part of Sony's strategy with PSP, but as I've said, we're missing the games.

Sony needs to drop the price of the hardware, plain and simple. And somehow, it's got to get some games out. Personally, I'm a little concerned that a lot of developers' focus is going toward the next-gen console systems - PSP may be a great portable released at the wrong time.

If Sony can tough it out for a while though, until it becomes feasible to drop the price to $199 or (especially) less than $179, they could still have a winner. Meanwhile, PSP is in the unenviable position of having to be kept afloat this summer by UMD movies.

Which I like, and based on sales numbers, other people do, too. I'm sitting here at work right now, ready to load up a UMD movie - and feeling pretty damn happy about it, too. 8) :P
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Old 21-Jun-2005, 15:48   #6
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Its both . demand and supply . This is why the europe launch was pushed back so far and dispite heavy importing from usa to europe the usa still didn't sell out of units at launch .

We still get few units (1-3 a week ) but we sell few units now too .
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Old 21-Jun-2005, 16:54   #7
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SONY cannot lower the price because it's too soon and they will bleed even more.
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Old 21-Jun-2005, 17:49   #8
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Sounds like the PS2 launch.. lots of hype, some great launch games, then bam - nothing for almost a year. If the PSP can survive until ~September, then all will be fine and it'll take off.
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Old 21-Jun-2005, 18:06   #9
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Speaking of games or lack there of in PSP's case, here are the last two Japanese daily sales charts:

06/18

PS2 Drag on Dragoon 2 (Square Enix)
DS Nou wo Kitaeru Otona no DS Training (Nintendo)
PS2 Kenka Banchou (Spike)
DS Rakuhiki Jiten (Nintendo)
DS Nintendogs: Shiba and Friends (Nintendo)
PS2 Soccer Life 2 (Banpresto)
DS Nintendogs: Chihuahua and Friends (Nintendo)
DS Nintendogs: Dachs and Friends (Nintendo)
PS2 World Soccer Winning Eleven 8 Liveware Evolution (Konami)
DS Sawaru Made in Wario (Nintendo)
PS2 Tear Ring Saga (Enterbrain)
DS Chou Shittou Caduceus (Atlus)
DS Touch! Kirby (Nintnedo)
DS SD Gundam G Generation DS (Bandai)
PS2 Metal Saga: Sajin no Kusari (Success)
DS Naruto: Saikyou Ninja Daikesshuu 3 (Tomy)
PSP Minna no Golf Portable (Sony)
GBA Pokemon Emerald (Pokemon)
DS Super Mario 64 DS (Nintendo)
PS2 Romancing SaGa Minstrel Song (Square Enix)

11 DS games
7 PS2 games
1 GBA game
1 PSP game


06/19

PS2 Drag on Dragoon 2 (Square Enix)
DS Nou wo Kitaeru Otona no DS Training (Nintendo)
PS2 Kenka Banchou (Spike)
DS Nintendogs: Shiba and Friends (Nintendo)
DS Nintendogs: Dachs and Friends (Nintendo)
DS Rakuhiki Jiten [Easy Dictionary](Nintendo)
PS2 Soccer Life 2 (Banpresto)
DS Nintendogs: Chihuahua and Friends (Nintendo)
DS Touch! Kirby (Nintnedo)
DS Naruto: Saikyou Ninja Daikesshuu 3 (Tomy)
PS2 Tear Ring Saga (Enterbrain)
DS SD Gundam G Generation DS (Bandai)
GBA Mahou Sensei Negima! (Marvelous)
DS Sawaru Made in Wario (Nintendo)
PS2 Metal Saga: Sajin no Kusari (Success)
GBA Pokemon Emerald (Pokemon)
PS2 World Soccer Winning Eleven 8 Liveware Evolution (Konami)
DS Super Mario 64 DS (Nintendo)
DS Jissen Pachi-Slot Hisshouhou! Hokuto no Ken DS (Sega)
PS2 Romancing SaGa Minstrel Song (Square Enix)

11 DS games
7 PS2 games
2 GBA games
0 PSP games
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Old 21-Jun-2005, 18:17   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zurich
Sounds like the PS2 launch.. lots of hype, some great launch games, then bam - nothing for almost a year. If the PSP can survive until ~September, then all will be fine and it'll take off.
this sounds more like wishful thinking than like rational reasoning..
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Old 21-Jun-2005, 18:37   #11
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Heh, maybe the lack of games is a ploy to sell UMD movies and entrench the format among early adopters - then Sony will bring out the games this fall! :P

In any case, I think the system just needs its GTA and Gran Turismo Mobile and things will be all right.
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Old 22-Jun-2005, 03:15   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TEXAN
People dont want a $250 games portable, Sony's mistake was making a system that does everything.
Well obviously some people do.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TEXAN
Nobody cares about UMD movies.
Again, obviously some people do, and many are surprised at the success of the format.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TEXAN
Customers want a handheld that plays true 3D videogames for less than $150.
Customers also want something like that for free

Quote:
Originally Posted by Teasy
Speaking of games or lack there of in PSP's case, here are the last two Japanese daily sales charts:
Uhuh, but shall we look at the last US sales charts that were released for a more balanced look?

Quote:
Code:
PORTABLE
Last Month	Rank	Title	Platform	Publisher	Release Date	
2	1	Need For Speed: Underground Rivals	PSP	Electronic Arts	Mar '05
*	2	Lego Star Wars	GBA	Eidos Interactive	Mar '05
1	3	Twisted Metal: Head-On	PSP	Sony 	Mar '05
4	4	Untold Legends: Brotherhood of the Blade	PSP	Sony
*	5	Mario Party Advance	GBA	Nintendo	Mar '05
*	6	Ridge Racer	PSP	Namco	Mar '05
10	7	Wipeout Pure	PSP	Sony 	Mar '05
*	8	MLB	PSP	Sony 	APR '05
9	9	Metal Gear Acid	PSP	Konami	Mar '05
*	10	Tony Hawk's Underground 2 Remix	PSP	Activision
If anyone's got some more recent US sales charts (these are from 3 weeks ago) I'd like to see them.
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Old 22-Jun-2005, 05:30   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kolgar
Whatever. If Sony wants to jump-start demand for this system, it's going to need to lower the price of the hardware and ensure a steady flow of games.
Possibly help lower price of UMD movies. I have changed my perception of UMD movies. Earlier I used to think its not a great thing but now I feel only thing holding it back is high price of UMD movies. I would rather have a UMD movie instead of going over all the trouble of compressing and putting it on even more expensive Memory Sticks.
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Old 22-Jun-2005, 05:36   #14
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Quote:
Again, obviously some people do, and many are surprised at the success of the format.
Sucess? You mean because HoFD and RE sold fairly well on UMD? That hardly points to the UMD format being a success...

When UMD movie sales actually gets past the one hit wonder phase is when it'll be a success...

I guess some people still consider prerecorded MD as being successful...
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Old 22-Jun-2005, 05:58   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Teasy
Speaking of games or lack there of in PSP's case, here are the last two Japanese daily sales charts:

06/18

PS2 Drag on Dragoon 2 (Square Enix)
DS Nou wo Kitaeru Otona no DS Training (Nintendo)
PS2 Kenka Banchou (Spike)
DS Rakuhiki Jiten (Nintendo)
DS Nintendogs: Shiba and Friends (Nintendo)
PS2 Soccer Life 2 (Banpresto)
DS Nintendogs: Chihuahua and Friends (Nintendo)
DS Nintendogs: Dachs and Friends (Nintendo)
PS2 World Soccer Winning Eleven 8 Liveware Evolution (Konami)
DS Sawaru Made in Wario (Nintendo)
PS2 Tear Ring Saga (Enterbrain)
DS Chou Shittou Caduceus (Atlus)
DS Touch! Kirby (Nintnedo)
DS SD Gundam G Generation DS (Bandai)
PS2 Metal Saga: Sajin no Kusari (Success)
DS Naruto: Saikyou Ninja Daikesshuu 3 (Tomy)
PSP Minna no Golf Portable (Sony)
GBA Pokemon Emerald (Pokemon)
DS Super Mario 64 DS (Nintendo)
PS2 Romancing SaGa Minstrel Song (Square Enix)

11 DS games
7 PS2 games
1 GBA game
1 PSP game


06/19

PS2 Drag on Dragoon 2 (Square Enix)
DS Nou wo Kitaeru Otona no DS Training (Nintendo)
PS2 Kenka Banchou (Spike)
DS Nintendogs: Shiba and Friends (Nintendo)
DS Nintendogs: Dachs and Friends (Nintendo)
DS Rakuhiki Jiten [Easy Dictionary](Nintendo)
PS2 Soccer Life 2 (Banpresto)
DS Nintendogs: Chihuahua and Friends (Nintendo)
DS Touch! Kirby (Nintnedo)
DS Naruto: Saikyou Ninja Daikesshuu 3 (Tomy)
PS2 Tear Ring Saga (Enterbrain)
DS SD Gundam G Generation DS (Bandai)
GBA Mahou Sensei Negima! (Marvelous)
DS Sawaru Made in Wario (Nintendo)
PS2 Metal Saga: Sajin no Kusari (Success)
GBA Pokemon Emerald (Pokemon)
PS2 World Soccer Winning Eleven 8 Liveware Evolution (Konami)
DS Super Mario 64 DS (Nintendo)
DS Jissen Pachi-Slot Hisshouhou! Hokuto no Ken DS (Sega)
PS2 Romancing SaGa Minstrel Song (Square Enix)

11 DS games
7 PS2 games
2 GBA games
0 PSP games
Here is yesterday's chart too
6/20

Rankings for the 20th

1. PS2 Drag on Dragoon 2 (Square Enix)
2. DS Nou wo Kitaeru Otona no DS Training (Nintendo)
3. PS2 Kenka Banchou (Spike)
4. PS2 Soccer Life 2 (Banpresto)
5. DS Nintendogs: Shiba and Friends (Nintendo)
6. DS Rakuhiki Jiten [Easy Dictionary](Nintendo)
7. PS2 Tear Ring Saga (Enterbrain)
8. PS2 World Soccer Winning Eleven 8 Liveware Evolution (Konami)
9. PS2 Metal Saga: Sajin no Kusari (Success)
10. DS Nintendogs: Chihuahua and Friends (Nintendo)
11. PS2 Romancing SaGa Minstrel Song (Square Enix)
12. PSP Everybody Golf (Sony)
13. PS2 NAMCO×CAPCOM (Namco)
14. DS Jissen Pachi-Slot Hisshouhou! Hokuto no Ken DS (Sega)
15. DS Nintendogs: Dachs and Friends (Nintendo)
16. PS2 DS Jissen Pachi-Slot Hisshouhou! Hokuto no Ken Plus (Sega)
17. DS Sawaru Made in Wario (Nintendo)
18. DS Naruto: Saikyou Ninja Daikesshuu 3 (Tomy)
19. PS2 Professional Baseball Spirits 2 (Konami)
20. PSP Eiyuu Densetsu Gagharv Trilogy: Shiroki Majo (Bandai)

10 PS2 games
8 DS games
2 PSP games
0 GBA games
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Old 22-Jun-2005, 14:10   #16
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Quote:
Uhuh, but shall we look at the last US sales charts that were released for a more balanced look?
That chart started about 2 weeks after PSP was released so its basically PSP's launch month. Definitely not a more balanced look IMO.
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Old 22-Jun-2005, 14:50   #17
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Well you posted it to illustrate that there's a lack of games... for where it is in its cycle, I totally disagree. Having bought mine from the US, I think the US charts are much more pertinent, so yes, it is a more balanced look.
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Old 22-Jun-2005, 15:58   #18
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Yeah there are plenty of games for launch, but that's all we're seeing from that chart (since its for April). Any handheld is going to dominate the charts in its launch month. No problem with you posting the chart, but I'm not going to agree that its more balanced then the Japanese one. Both systems have been out for a while and had time to settle down in Japan, plus its based on current sales.
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Old 22-Jun-2005, 16:56   #19
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Guys can you let the PSP come out in Europe first before you call death of the handheld. And PC-Engine how long should we wait before we can evaulate the UMD sales? One year , two years, or what. The UMD has done something faster than what the DVD has done. So what more do you want.
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Old 22-Jun-2005, 17:07   #20
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Not to sound pessimistic, but shouldn't Sony step UP production in preparation of the EU launch, if anything?

Or are we going to have shortages in Europe - to keep demand just that little bit higher... like it happened with the PS2?

Oh well...
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Old 22-Jun-2005, 17:41   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Magnum PI
Quote:
Originally Posted by zurich
Sounds like the PS2 launch.. lots of hype, some great launch games, then bam - nothing for almost a year. If the PSP can survive until ~September, then all will be fine and it'll take off.
this sounds more like wishful thinking than like rational reasoning..
Why would you say that? It's just a matter of game development cycles.
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Old 22-Jun-2005, 20:15   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crystalcube
Possibly help lower price of UMD movies. I have changed my perception of UMD movies. Earlier I used to think its not a great thing but now I feel only thing holding it back is high price of UMD movies. I would rather have a UMD movie instead of going over all the trouble of compressing and putting it on even more expensive Memory Sticks.
I agree. If UMD movies came out at $14.99 to $17.99 for a top-end release, and $9.99 to $12.99 for an older movie, I'd be right there building my collection.

Like PSP itself, UMD movies have a certain chic... Priced intelligently, they could really stoke demand.

Right now, I think $15 is about the most I'll pay for a UMD movie, and it shocks me when I see some stores selling discs at $29.99.

By the way, I watched a couple of UMD movies yesterday and there's no doubt that they look MUCH better than anything you can reasonably fit on a Mem Stick. That alone is reason enough for me to buy them if Sony just prices them affordably.
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Old 22-Jun-2005, 20:39   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zurich
Why would you say that? It's just a matter of game development cycles.
in the post of yours i quoted, i failed to see the fact and/or the reasoning that made you certain that what happened for the PS2 would happen for the PSP.

IMHO the analogy b/w PS2 launch and PSP launch is very limited.
the parameters are not the same at all.

despite the lack of games, sony didn't have to cut back on PS2 manufacturing prediction, and had more shortage problems than overstocking ones.
it took the sales top position and didn't sell less than a console that was launched earlier.
PS2 was the descendant of the leading PS1.

you can't say that regarding the PSP.
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Old 22-Jun-2005, 20:49   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crystalcube
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kolgar
Whatever. If Sony wants to jump-start demand for this system, it's going to need to lower the price of the hardware and ensure a steady flow of games.
Possibly help lower price of UMD movies. I have changed my perception of UMD movies. Earlier I used to think its not a great thing but now I feel only thing holding it back is high price of UMD movies. I would rather have a UMD movie instead of going over all the trouble of compressing and putting it on even more expensive Memory Sticks.
That will surely depend on how many UMD movies you plan on buying and how many different movies you plan on watching on your PSP. If you only plan on watching 1 or 2 movies then yeah it would probably make sense to just buy the UMDs instead of ripping DVDs onto a MSDUO. However what happens when you want to watch your existing DVDs on PSP? Well you either rebuy those DVDs on UMD if they're available or you spend the money on a 512MB MSDUO which isn't THAT expensive. Unless UMD movies turn out to be really cheap, the format just isn't going to take off and only a handful of people would actually build a new movie library based on UMD.


Quote:
Originally Posted by mckmas8808
Guys can you let the PSP come out in Europe first before you call death of the handheld. And PC-Engine how long should we wait before we can evaulate the UMD sales? One year , two years, or what. The UMD has done something faster than what the DVD has done. So what more do you want.
Again you're comparing DVD which is NOT a proprietary format to UMD which IS a proprietary format. When are YOU going to stop making flawed comparsions? How many CE companies are making UMD players??? How many PSPs are able to hook up to a tv??? What was DVD competing with??? What is UMD competing with??? I rest my case.
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Old 22-Jun-2005, 21:13   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PC-Engine
Quote:
Originally Posted by crystalcube
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kolgar
Whatever. If Sony wants to jump-start demand for this system, it's going to need to lower the price of the hardware and ensure a steady flow of games.
Possibly help lower price of UMD movies. I have changed my perception of UMD movies. Earlier I used to think its not a great thing but now I feel only thing holding it back is high price of UMD movies. I would rather have a UMD movie instead of going over all the trouble of compressing and putting it on even more expensive Memory Sticks.
That will surely depend on how many UMD movies you plan on buying and how many different movies you plan on watching on your PSP. If you only plan on watching 1 or 2 movies then yeah it would probably make sense to just buy the UMDs instead of ripping DVDs onto a MSDUO. However what happens when you want to watch your existing DVDs on PSP? Well you either rebuy those DVDs on UMD if they're available or you spend the money on a 512MB MSDUO which isn't THAT expensive. Unless UMD movies turn out to be really cheap, the format just isn't going to take off and only a handful of people would actually build a new movie library based on UMD.


Quote:
Originally Posted by mckmas8808
Guys can you let the PSP come out in Europe first before you call death of the handheld. And PC-Engine how long should we wait before we can evaulate the UMD sales? One year , two years, or what. The UMD has done something faster than what the DVD has done. So what more do you want.
Again you're comparing DVD which is NOT a proprietary format to UMD which IS a proprietary format. When are YOU going to stop making flawed comparsions? How many CE companies are making UMD players??? How many PSPs are able to hook up to a tv??? What was DVD competing with??? What is UMD competing with??? I rest my case.
I see the whole UMD movie thing is kinda BLAH...I guess for the less technical it would be less troublesome to get the UMD, instead of encoding a RIP of a DVD to MPEG9. But I would personally get a 512MB MSDUO and RIP and ENCODE my catalog of DVD's (if I wanted to watch it on the PSP). I would actually go as far as totally disregarding UMD's and just get the DVD and plan to RIP and ENCODE it for my PSP.

A scenario where I would get a UMD is if they had deals where you would buy the DVD and for maybe a few bucks more get the Movie on a UMD. Other than that....it rather pointless to get a UMD Movie JUST for your PSP and not be able to watch it on my Big Screen TV....
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