[Mr. Angry Pants]

Ripclawe at the GA forums did the footwork. I added the obnoxious smilies.

ESTIMATES ONLY




Top 10 Selling Games for Xbox for September 2002 (Retail Sales $)

Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units

1 DEAD TO RIGHTS Namco 4,236,845 $ 83,970

2 MADDEN NFL 2003 Electronic Arts 3,325,112 $ 67,387

3 TUROK: EVOLUTION Acclaim 3,178,758 $ 64,285

4 HALO Microsoft 2,671,096 $ 53,927

5 THE THING Universal Interactive 2,458,981 $ 47,883

6 SEGA GT 2002 Sega 2,208,611 $ 43,229

7 LORD OF THE RINGS Vivendi Universal 1,732,118 $ 35,902

8 HITMAN 2: ASSASSIN EIDOS 1,691,010 $ 32,945

9 NFL 2K3 Sega 1,256,578 $ 25,586

10 STREET HOOPS Activision 1,220,897 $ 24,080







Top 10 Selling Games for PS2 for September 2002 (Retail Sales $)

Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units

1 MADDEN NFL 2003 Electronic Arts 18,228,540 $ 371,078

2 KINGDOM HEARTS Square EA 17,007,420 $ 342,409

3 SOCOM:U.S. NAVY SEALS SCEA 14,050,110 $ 235,589

4 TEKKEN 4 Namco 9,996,855 $ 201,843

5 GRAND THEFT AUTO 3 Take-Two Interactive 5,065,849 $ 101,450

6 ONIMUSHA 2: SAMURAI Capcom 4,847,056 $ 97,440

7 NCAA FOOTBALL 2003 Electronic Arts 4,817,111 $ 96,889

8 STREET HOOPS Activision 3,517,776 $ 69,439

9 MEDAL HONOR FRONTLINE Electronic Arts 3,411,661 $ 70,300

10 TUROK: EVOLUTION Acclaim 3,332,207 $ 67,296







Top 10 Selling Games for GameCube for September 2002 (Retail Sales $)

Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units

1 SUPER MARIO SUNSHINE Nintendo 13,299,390 $ 266,592

2 STAR FOX ADVENTURES Nintendo 8,342,915 $ 168,276

3 ANIMAL CROSSING Nintendo 5,250,859 $ 105,137

4 SUPER MONKEY BALL 2 Nintendo 2,210,891 $ 43,880

5 TUROK: EVOLUTION Acclaim 1,747,693 $ 35,297

6 SUPER SMASH BRO MELEE Nintendo 1,664,877 $ 33,450

7 MADDEN NFL 2003 Electronic Arts 1,218,255 $ 24,764

8 SONIC ADVENTURE 2 Sega 906,322 $ 18,103

9 MLB SLUGFEST 20-03 Midway 567,483 $ 11,049

10 LUIGI'S MANSION Nintendo 545,416 $ 11,362


Things to note:

--Xbox software sales were below mediocre. 479000 units (rounded off) total from the top ten.

3 TUROK: EVOLUTION Acclaim 3,178,758 $ 64,285

4 HALO Microsoft 2,671,096 $ 53,927

--There is no god.

--It sucks to be a 3rd party on Gamecube.

--I can't wait to join the Air Force, because without a job I have way too much time on my hands during the day.

[CeiserSöze]

It's nice to see Animal Crossing doing so well. More than 100'000 units over 15 days is quite good considering what kind of game AC is.

[marconelly!]

"7 LORD OF THE RINGS Vivendi Universal 1,732,118 $ 35,902"

This is a completely displaced product. They really should have made it one year ago, or scrapped it altogether. I was pretty sure it would sell terribly on any platform. Reviews being in 60%, also didn't helped :\

[Mr. Angry Pants]

What struck me the most was the Gamecube chart.

Once you get out of the top three, the sales numbers take a nose dive. From 105k to 40k in one game. The last four games are abysmal. I'm betting the Xbox top 20 looks a lot brighter than the Gamecube top 20.

[Mr. Angry Pants]

Originally Posted by CeiserSöze

It's nice to see Animal Crossing doing so well. More than 100'000 units over 15 days is quite good considering what kind of game AC is.

I disagree. There are more than enough hardcore Nintendo gamers to carry the game over the 100k mark.

[Johnny Awesome]

Top 10 Software Sales

PS2 - 1.652 million units (58%)
GCN - 718,000 units (25%)
Xbox - 479,000 units (17%)

Since the current marketshare looks like:

PS2 - 69%
Xbox - 17%
GCN - 14%

it seems that Xbox is par for the course, PS2 is underperforming, and GCN is the real winner in September. Granted this is only based on the top 10 titles, but it's still a reasonable indicator.

It'll be really interesting to see how Timesplitters 2 does across all three platforms this month.

It's also not too surprising why 3rd parties don't like the Gamecube right now. Only Sega, Nintendo, and Capcom seem to be able to sell software on it.

[CeiserSöze]

Originally Posted by Johnny Awesome

It's also not too surprising why 3rd parties don't like the Gamecube right now. Only Sega, Nintendo, and Capcom seem to be able to sell software on it.

That's not surprising. I think it works something like that on Nintendo-platforms:
-Nintendo games sell best, period.
-3rd party games sell well if they get some PR-support by Nintendo and/or if they are very well known franchises (Sonic, Resident Evil and I think Final Fantasy: CC will be similar)
-The rest doesn't sell as well as on other platforms.

Actually it's quite the similar on XBox and PS2 with the exception of Sony and MS having far less 1st party games to hype than Nintendo. They have to rely more on 3rd party software which means more hype and better sales for third parties like Square, Tecmo, Namco and Konami. Nintendo is in quite a difficult situation there: They want more 3rd party titles because they don't want another N64-fiasco but these games tend to sell worse than on other platforms because GC-owners generally take Nintendo-titles first.

[Rodéric]

PIMIN rocks

I think it's way underrated

Resident Evil is... overrated

never agree with mags ^^

-* I know it's off topic but I'm in such a mood *-

[bryanb]

Since when did Nintendo publish Super Monkey Ball 2? Isn't that a Sega product?

Looks bad for Rare, they just threw away the Japanese market and they will never sell product like SFA on the XBox. SFA was the best seller in Japan 2 weeks running. That's future revenue that they will NEVER receive. The Rare execs are total and complete asinine fools. Is there a product that looks anything like SFA that has sold on the XBox?

HAHAHA Rare is: toast. dead. history.

Let's see how bad the flop that is Blinx sells in October. The guys down at Babbages say that NO ONE is buying it.

Quality 3rd party product sells on the GameCube. Resident Evil. Eternal Darkness. Rogue Leader. Super Monkey Ball. WWE X8. 3rd party product that caters to the GC user base also sells well. Sonic Adventure 2. It would be better to say 3rd party product sucks less on the GC than the N64. And that's all that Nintendo is asking for.

Can we now say that the death of DreamCast was the best thing to happen for the GameCube?

And of course sports games don't do well at all on the Cube.

[CeiserSöze]

Eternal Darkness didn't sell well (only a bit more than 150'000 Units until August 02)... sadly

[bryanb]

Originally Posted by CeiserSöze

Eternal Darkness didn't sell well (only a bit more than 150'000 Units until August 02)... sadly

NPD numbers from this board showed ED selling 134,000 from the 24th of June (its release date) through the end of July. And NPD only polls 60 to 80 percent of actual sales.

ED sold ~ 170,000 through July. I don't have August numbers for ED.

So while not selling incredibily well, I would say that ED sold reasonably well. Adventure horror games don't maintain high sales over long periods as they have little replay value. I think those type of games tend to be highly traded between console owners and not purchased outright.

[iscariot]

it seems that Xbox is par for the course, PS2 is underperforming, and GCN is the real winner in September. Granted this is only based on the top 10 titles, but it's still a reasonable indicator.

based on what, a measley top ten? oh brother...ps 2 more than doubles GC and quadruples XB in sales and ps 2 is underperforming. Only in your world I suppose....

[Teasy]

69% of next gen consoles are PS2's and only 58% of games in the top 10 games sold for each console are PS2 games. Its underperforming compared to its userbase, not selling as many games per console as GameCube or even XBox, that's a fact. Its not the end of the world, nor is it that important, obviously PS2 still sells more due to its massive userbase advantage so...

[wazoo]

Originally Posted by Teasy

69% of next gen consoles are PS2's and only 58% of games in the top 10 games sold for each console are PS2 games. Its underperforming compared to its userbase, not selling as many games per console as GameCube or even XBox, that's a fact. Its not the end of the world, nor is it that important, obviously PS2 still sells more due to its massive userbase advantage so...

The total number is not a linear function of the userbase. The more customers you get, the more you are going into the massmarket, the less you are selling proportionnaly. The casual gamers are less likely to buy a lot of games. Add the fact that this is much easier to buy 2nd hand games on ps2 than on the others consoles, due to its age and the high amount of games available.

Currently, I only buy new games on my GC and wait for the ps2 games to come on 2nd hand.

[iscariot]

Its underperforming compared to its userbase, not selling as many games per console as GameCube or even XBox, that's a fact

er, actually that's incorrect teasy. Last I've checked, the softaware/hardware ratio is slightly higher than XB and quite a bit above GC. I'm just confused as to why you're limiting software performance to just the top ten. If you look at the 10th ranked game for each console, you'd see PS 2's triples the amount of sales of Xb's 10th ranked game and sold 6x more than GC's. In other words, do a top 20 or even 30 and you'll see PS 2 is on par with it's market share. Limiting it to the top ten with 3 different consoles is not a very accurate guage imo

[Johnny Awesome]

The facts: The tie ratio on PS2 is lower than Xbox or GCN for the month of September when viewed from the top 10. Of course, the PS2 tie ratio is larger overall simply because it's been on the market a year longer.

It's interesting that your counter example merely proves my point. Xbox user base is 1/4 of PS2, but the 10th ranked Xbox title sold 1/3rd of the 10th ranked PS2 title. Looks like each Xbox owner buys more software than each Sony owner.

This does have something to do Xbox targetting the older demographic more heavily. There is no factual evidence to suggest that it is more hardcore than the PS2.

I'm sure that Turok would not be high on the list if hardcore gamers were the main Xbox demographic. Where's Quantum Redshift, which is hardcore favorite, in the list?

Microsoft and Sony publish just as many games as Nintendo does. The fact is that kids and their parents mainly buy the GCN for Nintendo's games. 3rd parties don't like it, which is why you will see far less support for GCN next year if Nintendo doesn't beat MS this holiday in the US.

On the Rare acquisition: Great move for both Rare and MS. This will bring alot of Rare fans and a younger demographic to the console. It will broaden the Xbox appeal and make it more succesful in the mass market.

[iscariot]

The tie ratio on PS2 is lower than Xbox or GCN for the month of September when viewed from the top 10.

redundant...

It's interesting that your counter example merely proves my point. Xbox user base is 1/4 of PS2, but the 10th ranked Xbox title sold 1/3rd of the 10th ranked PS2 title. Looks like each Xbox owner buys more software than each Sony owner.

again, strictly looking at top 10, that appears to be the case but you're limiting it to top 10 only. By your above logic, even with PS2's 10th ranked title selling 6x as much as GC's 10th, you would still insist that GC is still at a higher ratio even beyond 10th. It's just not the case.

[Johnny Awesome]

Maybe not for the GCN, but certainly for Xbox this is probably true. Historically, both GCN and Xbox have outpaced PS2 at the same points in their lifecycle.

PS: You should look up the meaning of the word "redundant".

[iscariot]

redundant as in your constant top 10 spewing = unecessary, as in pointless. Speaking of definitions, check out the word 'probably' But either way, your logic is flawed, simple as that...

[Johnny Awesome]

It still doesn't mean what you think it does, but whatever.

Xbox and GCN ratios have historically been better than PS2's at similar points in their lifecycles. Why does this bother you so much? PS2 is a mass market item now. Xbox and GCN are just getting started.

Relax. 8)

[Vince]

Ohh my. I hoped this was over.... I knew that smelled familiar, what is it? Oh yeah, Bullshit.

Originally Posted by Johnny Awesome

The facts: The tie ratio on PS2 is lower than Xbox or GCN for the month of September when viewed from the top 10. Of course, the PS2 tie ratio is larger overall simply because it's been on the market a year longer.

What a fallacy. This is insane. The PS2 has around 2 times the amount of software than the 'box and Cube. Obviously, the amount of sales for the other two consoles will dramaticallty drop off compared to the PS2 when looking beyond the top few games.

At GA, they posted like the top 2000 software titles last month - I wish I could find it because it would totoally prove that your just skewing rations and numbers.

Even then, Wazoo has a great point. If XBox or Cube ever gain widespread adoption and reach a point of 40 Million, they'll base will have assimilated many of the casual gaming folk.

This does have something to do Xbox targetting the older demographic more heavily. There is no factual evidence to suggest that it is more hardcore than the PS2.

I'm sure that Turok would not be high on the list if hardcore gamers were the main Xbox demographic. Where's Quantum Redshift, which is hardcore favorite, in the list?

Your saying that the XBox isn't composed of a more hardcore base? Go look at Team-XBox... end of story

Anyways, if Quantum Redshift has the publicity, exposure, widly known name, and insteresting topic that Turok did - they it would have sold.

I hardly think taking this one example as a supposed micrososm/crossection of the XBox userbase is accurate - and I think you know this.

I think enough evidence can be extracted from the XBox's launch strength compraed to it's month-month sales trends and software tie-in rates during this period to see that it's userbase has not broken out of it's origional contingent of buyers.

I'm sure that Turok would not be high on the list if hardcore gamers were the main Xbox demographic. Where's Quantum Redshift, which is hardcore favorite, in the list?

Maybe not for the GCN, but certainly for Xbox this is probably true. Historically, both GCN and Xbox have outpaced PS2 at the same points in their lifecycle

Early in their comparative lifespans they did; but at the current point -with sales information normalized to a base year - the PS2 is outpacing the Cube and 'Box. Again, look at any of the GKM charts that exist or I've posted before.


I find this whole thing quite useless as Grand Theft Auto: Vice City alone is projected by UBS Warburg to sell more copies in the first 12 months than the entire, current, XBox installed base times two*.

*(using ~5M as an installed base)

[Vince]

Johnney:

This does have something to do Xbox targetting the older demographic more heavily. There is no factual evidence to suggest that it is more hardcore than the PS2.

I'm sure that Turok would not be high on the list if hardcore gamers were the main Xbox demographic. Where's Quantum Redshift, which is hardcore favorite, in the list?

Actually here's better proof that the demographic has yet to break out from it's hardcore contingent and enter the mainstream:

Monthly Hardware Sales: (September)

PSOne: 240,343 (up 56%)

XBX: 172,748 (up 26%)

Numbers are from CSFB Sept' 2002.

How can you say the XBox is 'mainstream' when it's getting outsold by the PSOne - which launched in what year? Hmm... I seem to have forgotten.

[Goldni]

Man I'd have thought that 'The Thing' and SMB2 had sold more than 40,000+ copies. If I've seen thier commercials once, I've seen them a thousand times. As far as 3rd party 'doom' predictions for GCN next year, I disagree. Most (about 85%) of 3rd party games have been ports so far. And some have come weeks.. nay months after the original versions with little improvements. I'll bet we'll see the new GCN version Bond sell even with or better than the XB one..maybe even half that of PS2 version (if it does'nt come out a whole month later that is). TS2 will do well on Cube as well as Godzilla and RE0. Sports games will sell well on PS2 and XB because of the casual gamer factor. Alot of hardcore Cube owners like me are tired of 'sports' games and 'wrastlin' games. Let the masses of PS2 sheep lap them up..(having said that WWE X8 did very well on the Cube).

Oh and Johnny, I disagree with your Quantum Redshift opinion. It was a turd. I took it back and preordered RE0.

[Teasy]

The more customers you get, the more you are going into the massmarket, the less you are selling proportionnaly.

Maybe, but then I didn't say there wasn't a perfectly good reason for it. I just said it is the case that PS2 sold less per console in September then both the other consoles. As I said its not that important.

er, actually that's incorrect teasy. Last I've checked, the softaware/hardware ratio is slightly higher than XB and quite a bit above GC. I'm just confused as to why you're limiting software performance to just the top ten.

When was the last time you checked then? The games sold per console in total may be higher for PS2, but in September it sold less per console going by the top 10, the top 10 is being used because that is the info available and it should give a good indication.

In other words, do a top 20 or even 30 and you'll see PS 2 is on par with it's market share. Limiting it to the top ten with 3 different consoles is not a very accurate guage imo

What you have to remember there is that GameCube's U.S userbase is only 1/5 the size of PS2's, so selling 6 times more isn't mind blowing. Also you cannot just say "take top 20 and you will see X" if you haven't seen the top 20 yourself. Or If you have seen it then post it for each console, if I see evidence that shows PS2 is selling as much software per consoles as the others then that's great, as I said its not particularly important anyway.

Microsoft and Sony publish just as many games as Nintendo does.

But not as many great games, and certainly nowhere near as many MS/Sony published games have just been released recently (hence still selling well) as Nintendo published games.

The fact is that kids and their parents mainly buy the GCN for Nintendo's games.

There is actually a much more reasonable explanation if you actually take the time to think about it. XBox is selling better then GameCube as far as 3rd parties go in September because they're users are being starved of quality first party games right now. GameCube has SMS, SFA and Animal Crossing, all first party and all released recently (hence still selling well). What recent first party games does XBox have in its top 10?.. none AFAICS Less great first party games leaves more room for good third party sales because people simply have nothing else to buy.

[Tagrineth]

Originally Posted by Goldni

Man I'd have thought that 'The Thing' and SMB2 had sold more than 40,000+ copies. If I've seen thier commercials once, I've seen them a thousand times. As far as 3rd party 'doom' predictions for GCN next year, I disagree. Most (about 85%) of 3rd party games have been ports so far. And some have come weeks.. nay months after the original versions with little improvements. I'll bet we'll see the new GCN version Bond sell even with or better than the XB one..maybe even half that of PS2 version (if it does'nt come out a whole month later that is). TS2 will do well on Cube as well as Godzilla and RE0. Sports games will sell well on PS2 and XB because of the casual gamer factor. Alot of hardcore Cube owners like me are tired of 'sports' games and 'wrastlin' games. Let the masses of PS2 sheep lap them up..(having said that WWE X8 did very well on the Cube).

Oh and Johnny, I disagree with your Quantum Redshift opinion. It was a turd. I took it back and preordered RE0.

For reference, last night at my local Best Buy, there was one TimeSplitters2 GCN left, and right across the street at a Sam's Club the GCN version was sold out (I watched a customer carry their last one from the rack no $7 discount for me)...

I'd say it's selling OK. Didn't check how many PS2 and Xbox TS2's were left, but at Sam's there were still four or five PS2 TS2's.