[qwerty2000]

Analyst: PSP may miss March 2005 launch

[UPDATE] American Technology Research's PJ McNealy says "internal issues" at Sony may delay its portable's launch, a charge Sony adamantly denies.
Sony executives got a jolt of adrenaline with their caffeine this morning when they read the latest memo from respected game-industry analyst PJ McNealy. The memo's title says it all: "Sony PlayStation Portable Launch at Risk?"

In the memo, the American Technology Research analyst outlines his reasons for suspecting that Sony's upcoming portable may not make its March 2005 release window. "We continue to monitor the status of development for the upcoming Sony PlayStation Portable and believe that wide publisher support may be challenging for a North American launch in the March 2005 quarter."

One reason for McNealy's supposition is that Sony has not sent out the PSP yet. "From a developer’s perspective, they would have ideally already had an SDK [software development kit] for a March 2005 launch, as the later the arrival of an SDK into July or August, the odds of having a game ready drop," read the memo.

Another, more-sinister-sounding reason comes from within Sony (SNE) itself. "We believe there may be internal issues for SNE with the PSP that are not only technical, but also business-model related," warns the memo. (Emphasis in the original.) McNealy cites the complexity of launching a multimedia device like the PSP as the main factor. "In order for it to have a successful launch, [the PSP] needs support from several different SNE divisions such as SNE Pictures and SNE Music," read the report. "This also means that development kits must be made for not only the game developers, but also members of the movie and music divisions to be able to put content on SNE’s Universal Mini-Disc (which is being used for the PSP)."

McNealy also points out that any non-game company that wants to create UMD media will also need the PSP SDK. "To make things even more complicated, if any of the other six major movie studios, or any of the other four major music labels, or any of the TV media companies want to put content on the PSP, they, too, will need SDKs."

Given the severity of the charges and the stature of McNealy, Sony was quick to respond. "The PSP is definitely on track," said Molly Smith, Sony Computer Entertainment of America's director of public relations. "We haven't changed our window at all. What we laid out at E3 remains fact today." That plan called for a winter 2004 launch of the PSP in Japan, with an American launch by March 31, 2005.

In regards to McNealy's SDK worries, Smith pointed out that the first batch of PSP emulators was sent out in November 2003. "Since that time, we've had a lot of dialogue with our partners," she said. "There's a lot of discussions and back in forth between the developers and publishers." Smith also noted, more than a little ironically, that McNealy's report came within 24 hours of "the latest round of disclosure to our PSP partners on the global level, which included business plans and a tool update."

Smith also downplayed McNealy's concerns about UMD music and movies. "UMD video and UMD audio don't require a full software development kit to optimize and develop content," she said. "It's more like the DVD format." She also emphasized the positive reception the PSP has received. "We've been overwhelmed in the support that has come from the gaming and other media sectors...we've got a lot of responsibility."

By Tor Thorsen -- GameSpot
POSTED: 06/30/04 08:14 AM PST

http://www.gamespot.com/news/2004/06...s_6101664.html

[Guden Oden]

Analysts schmanalysts.

[Qroach]

this wouldn't be a suprise to me...

[Clashman]

[Clashman] ----THIRTY-----FOOT-----POLE-------> [This Thread]

And that's as close as I'll get to speculating on this thread.

[cthellis42]

They certainly could. I have a feeling they'll launch it with crimped supply before they delay it overly, though. Fuel demand, feed the media...

They might if it launches big enough and well enough from Japan, I suppose. They'll still have the media attention and a lot of frenzied buyers trying to get it shipped overseas, so if supply would be TOO restricted they might wait a bit to catch up.

[Brimstone]

PSP on .65nm?

And if CELL has taped out and has a scalable modular design, why not use that at the core of the PSP design?

[london-boy]

Originally Posted by Brimstone

PSP on .65nm?

And if CELL has taped out and has a scalable modular design, why not use that at the core of the PSP design?

We've been through this, and the explanation was........ I can't remember.........

[Phil]

...that probably CELL wouldn't be ready until late 2006, possibly early 2007 to included in PSP. Timing was just right for PSP now, before a GBA2 is planned / made official.

[cthellis42]

Gamesindustry.biz on the same thing.

[Pepto-Bismol]

Originally Posted by Brimstone

And if CELL has taped out and has a scalable modular design, why not use that at the core of the PSP design?

*sigh* Sorry, Brimstone, but this harebrained scheme of yours doesn't even sound plausible. It sounds inevitable.

Based on the information Sony Corp. have been spoon-feeding us, the company's said everything short of: "STI inside."

I mean, functionally, the device seems to be a half step beyond PlayStation 2, like a PlayStation 2 ½. It's a mobile phone, a digital camera, a movie and music player as well as a handheld -- a handheld, I might add, whose first software generation begins where PS2 leaves off ...

Furthermore, PSP interacts with more potent Cell devices via wireless hotspots. Lastly, it has a voracious appetite for power -- like something you'd expect from a multi-chip module.

[wazoo]

Originally Posted by Pepto-Bismol

a handheld, I might add, whose first software generation begins where PS2 leaves off ...

No. You have surely access to secret information because E3 footage was better than DS but not on ps2 level, except GT4 (which we do not even know if it was PSP footage).

[Pepto-Bismol]

It's common cents actually.

Nintendo has a really bad habit of miniaturizing past technology. So games on its current handhelds resemble those on previous consoles.

But Sony has made their existing technology portable.

"First and foremost, the PlayStation Portable is a portable handheld gaming device that really simulates the PlayStation 2 in the home." – Kaz Hirai, president and CEO of SCEA

"I think that a game like Headhunger: Redemption would look almost the same on PSP. It's very powerful. Also, you have less of a fill rate, so the graphics chip basically has the same capability as the PS2. I think we can do some hefty stuff on it. At first, when they were only going to have 8 megs of RAM, that was a hassle, but now that it has 32, it is the same as PS2." – John Kroknes, producer Headhunter: Redemption

So while Miyamoto & Co. were licking their chops and getting ready to milk another cash calf before bringing a cow to the dairy farm, Sony moved a step ahead of them, technologically speaking.

Besides, PSP's abilities (and rainbow of supported formats) suggests that there IS something more potent than EE+GS inside ...

[Tuttle]

"Nintendo has a really bad habit of miniaturizing past technology."

It is hard to call something as successful as the GB line of handhelds a 'bad habit'

There is no data to suggest, either way, that consumers want or will pay for handheld games that require or are implemented with the most modern technology. It's been so long since there was anything to really compete with the GB to give any clear indication if there really is a market for Sony to tap into.

I would assume Sony has done consumer research for a hardware project as large as the PSP. However, I could see it would be easy to fall in to the faulty assumption that gamers will want and pay for a device that plays PS2 level of graphics and complexity. There certainly is a small number of very vocal and visible gamers who do right now. But are they the exception or the rule?

Most of the development for GB titles is done on absolutely razor thin margins. The PSP will have to have to larger teams to support the higher complexity games that the target audience will demand from the hardware, and thus higher budgets. Will there be a large enough demographic that is willing to pay for those types of games in a handheld device is a pretty big question. It is possible that the PSP could end up being a new NeoGeo type device.

Outside of spec whores who like to do side by side hardware comparisons of devices, I don't know anyone who has a handheld device who ever talks about graphic complexity or richness. Everyone I know, including myself, focus on game-play, mostly small, fun games that you can whip out your device while waiting for something for a few minutes. There are very few times where the conditions and time arise to play games of the average complexity on the PS2.

Look at cellphone games, last time I checked the most popular game was some silly bowling game. Graphically simple, quick and simple game-play.

[Teasy]

Nintendo has a really bad habit of miniaturizing past technology. So games on its current handhelds resemble those on previous consoles.

Erm DS uses a new ARM9 processor.. which has not been in any past Nintendo system. The GPU is as yet unclear but is clearly not the same as any past Nintendo GPU.

So while Miyamoto & Co. were licking their chops and getting ready to milk another cash calf

Bringing out an entirely new kind of handheld (dual screem, touch screen, voice recognition ect ect) to the market is milking? Of course its not, its exactly the opposite of that.

On PSP, I don't know exactly what hardware it has inside. But your fooling yourself if you think your not going to see most games looking like PS2 games..

[marconelly!]

No. You have surely access to secret information because E3 footage was better than DS but not on ps2 level, except GT4 (which we do not even know if it was PSP footage).

To say the truth, some of the features of the PSP hardware seem to be above those of PS2. There's a hardware texture compression for example, and also support for bumpmapping (as evidenced by that planet surface demo). A developer who made those demos, have said that PSP calculates spherical harmonics in his demo, faster than PS2 could. There are still many unknowns about it's hardware, though, at least for us Joe Publics.

[Squeak]

Originally Posted by Pepto-Bismol

Nintendo has a really bad habit of miniaturizing past technology. So games on its current handhelds resemble those on previous consoles.

But Sony has made their existing technology portable.

Let's wait and see the cost and the size of PSP, before passing any judgement.

[wazoo]

Originally Posted by marconelly!

To say the truth, some of the features of the PSP hardware seem to be above those of PS2. There's a hardware texture compression for example, and also support for bumpmapping (as evidenced by that planet surface demo). A developer who made those demos, have said that PSP calculates spherical harmonics in his demo, faster than PS2 could. There are still many unknowns about it's hardware, though, at least for us Joe Publics.

Looking at Sony own effort (Medievil, Wipeout), I'm not impressed. I'm not drawing conclusions about the final product, but we are currently seeing sub par ps2 games, not even at launch level. So, this guy telling us that the PSP would start in its first generation where the ps2 leaves off (to takes its own words) is a bit like PR. So it is not surprising its second post is about some PR claims from Sony Execs. When I'll see Primal quality on PSP, we'll start to talk about ps2 level games. That is requiring that 1/ the PSP is on par with the PS2 2/ PSP games have enough budget


At the current time, we are very far from it, and this is not some claims from Sony owns demo tech guys that will convince the sceptics. As you said there a lot of unknowns even within devs, so only released games will tell the truth. I just hope for the best as you do.

[Pepto-Bismol]

Originally Posted by Tuttle

It is hard to call something as successful as the GB line of handhelds a 'bad habit'.

I know. When you are SOO used to having stranglehold on the market, being too predictable sounds like gibberish ...

But as technology boundaries begin to overlap, more and more companies from different industries (digital cameras, GPS navigation, mobile phones, PDAs, etc.) will begin to stampede Nintendo in what is becoming a race to make the cutest, tiniest, most versatile piece of consumer electronics. *



*This, incidentally, is why STI are scrambling to build fabrication facilities. They plan to produce and license their one-size-fits-all solution like Wendy's Old Fashioned Hamburgers sells combo meals.

[Pepto-Bismol]

Originally Posted by Teasy

Bringing out an entirely new kind of handheld (dual screem, touch screen, voice recognition ect ect) to the market is milking? Of course its not, its exactly the opposite of that.

Well, now that you put it that way ... of course!

DS does not emulate current technology. In fact, according to Nintendo tradition, these gizmos should start poping up after Revolution has surfaced.

[Pepto-Bismol]

Originally Posted by marconelly!

To say the truth, some of the features of the PSP hardware seem to be above those of PS2.

Hmm ... let's see. If I were CEO of Sony Broadband Entertainment, PSP would be one of the bridges connecting today's technology with tomorrow's revolution. It would wean media providers and consumers from PlayStation 2 onto its successors.

While shattering the old notions regionalization (AU, EU and the US would become one region), PlayStation Portable would continue, via emulation, to uphold PS2 development as a viable alternative amid a Cellular siege ...

[Pepto-Bismol]

Originally Posted by Squeak

Let's wait and see the cost and the size of PSP, before passing any judgement.

Why? :?

We know PSP is going to be more costly than PS2. We know it will binge on battery power (making the whole notion of portability almost laughable). We are pretty sure its inception it will rival the PS2's conclusion software-wise, suggesting that there might be more than just an emulator under its bonnet ...

[Paul]

We know PSP is going to be more costly than PS2

Where did you buy your PSP from? I want to know.

[Pepto-Bismol]

Originally Posted by wazoo

So, this guy telling us that the PSP would start in its first generation where the ps2 leaves off (to takes its own words) is a bit like PR.

Ohmigod!!!

[Pepto-Bismol]

Originally Posted by Paul

Where did you buy your PSP from? I want to know.

It's an inference really.

PlayStation 2 prices are falling; PSP prices are not.

[Paul]

Oh no shit? I thought you mean't launch PS2 price(300). You may see a 200 dollar PSP though sure.