[eastmen]

Originally Posted by Acert93

Sooo... any one willing to predict what the holidays have in store?

Lots of bundles.


I really don't know what the industry was thinking. All 3 should have launched systems this year. The xbox 360 is from 2005 !

I think the wii u will sell well just because people are tired of this gen.

[Tap In]

Originally Posted by eastmen

Lots of bundles.


I really don't know what the industry was thinking. All 3 should have launched systems this year. The xbox 360 is from 2005 !

I think the wii u will sell well just because people are tired of this gen.

If you go back to posts at release time or shortly after, many of us said 2011 was the date with outside chance at 2012 and slim to none in 2013. as time went on and the legs of the machines started to show (and dashboard, kinect and feature updates released) we all started to see 2013 as a possiblity and now of course probabity.

But even 6 mos ago I was saying 2013 is perfect but with how stagnant the industry seems to be at the moment and how low sales are I'd say 2013 is too far away. Good news is the time will allow a bit more pronounced leap so there's that.

[Platon]

Originally Posted by Tap In

Good news is the time will allow a bit more pronounced leap so there's that.

That, or we will get the leap we would in 2011 with high end everything but at a fraction of the price...

[Tap In]

Originally Posted by Platon

That, or we will get the leap we would in 2011 with high end everything but at a fraction of the price...

true

fear of the competition would make that hard though. Part of me hopes the rumors of MS and Sony agreeing to specs in general for the Devs sake, is true. make things more stable and predictable for all.

[Rangers]

Originally Posted by eastmen

I think the wii u will sell well just because people are tired of this gen.

I think that's what a lot of the interest is from, yes. I'd say thats mostly why I pay attention to it.

But I dont think it will sell well, even for the paltry 3-4 months it has on shelves before next gen hype really crushes it.

At the end of the day it will probably be not too far from $400 for what looks like an X360. I dont see that as a winning proposition, even for November-December 2012 and January 2013, before Durango/Orbis hype begins in earnest.

[NavNucST3]

I'm interested in why many believe that "people" are eagerly awaiting a new generation. We already have a new handheld generation and the question to ask yourself is if you look at the numbers the new generation of handhelds are doing, with respect to both sell-through and sell-in, and view them as good, middling, or poor.

I'm already on record as believing that the highest selling handheld won't move the same number of units as the lowest selling handheld from the prior generation. While I'm fully aware that the 3DS is above where the DS was, at the current LTD, I neither see that being sustained over the life of the handheld and certainly not once the 3DS comps against the DS Lite. Given that the Vita is selling-in in what one can only describe as poor numbers it already would need to make-up massive ground against its predecessor.

With respect to just US NPD I do believe there are probably a good 2-5M that are awaiting a new generation but I would argue that more people are simply awaiting more games (which is what is frequently noted in the NPD reports - decline in total number of new releases).

[RancidLunchmeat]

Nah, I don't believe that. And I don't think handhelds compare at all with consoles which is why I was always confused as to how people draw comparisons or even include them in the same lines of discussion.

They are particularly isolated today, when they have to compete with mulit-core phones and tablet devices. I wouldn't take any trend in handhelds and try to draw parallels to the console market.

As far as the success of the WiiU goes.. Does anybody know if Borderlands 2, Bioshock Infinite, BlackOps 2, etc are going to be launch titles for the system?

Because that might help carry it. Why get Bioshock Infitine for the PS3/360 when you can get a brand new WiiU and get the game for that?

Of course, for multiplayer games like Borderlands and BlackOps you probably want to stick with your main console where all your friends are..

[Tap In]

Originally Posted by NavNucST3

With respect to just US NPD I do believe there are probably a good 2-5M that are awaiting a new generation but I would argue that more people are simply awaiting more games (which is what is frequently noted in the NPD reports - decline in total number of new releases).

good point... maybe fall/winter releases will reinvigorate this gen

[zed]

Its been quiet the least few months, partly due to the dearth of AAA games I attribute it to also.
Ive asked it before but why do we get most of the AAA titles released sep->dec, yes holiday sales but ppl have only a limited number of dollars. I betcha eg battlefield 3 or something would of sold better than has done if it was launched a couple of months ago, instead of launching the same month as COD

[Billy Idol]

Originally Posted by zed

Its been quiet the least few months, partly due to the dearth of AAA games I attribute it to also.
Ive asked it before but why do we get most of the AAA titles released sep->dec, yes holiday sales but ppl have only a limited number of dollars. I betcha eg battlefield 3 or something would of sold better than has done if it was launched a couple of months ago, instead of launching the same month as COD

Agreed. This is what I wonder myself. I would give every dollar I have for a game...releasing today! Why?

[RancidLunchmeat]

I actually don't understand why summer is a slow time for game releases anyway. Do they think kids play more games during the school year than on break? Isn't that the exact opposite of the reason why the release the big summer blockbuster movies?

Why don't they release the big summer blockbuster AAA games?

I don't get it either.

[Billy Idol]

I really wonder if there is a statistic from 1980 where they found out that no one buys games in summer...and publisher still think it is valid.

[kagemaru]

Originally Posted by eastmen

I think the wii u will sell well just because people are tired of this gen.

But won't most of the Wii-U's line up be comprised of current gen titles?

Originally Posted by Tap In

But even 6 mos ago I was saying 2013 is perfect but with how stagnant the industry seems to be at the moment and how low sales are I'd say 2013 is too far away

IMO MS and Sony are ignoring (willingly or unwillingly) the low low end market. Black Friday last year showed that there is still a market for these consoles, it's just they are currently priced too high for this market.

Originally Posted by RancidLunchmeat

I actually don't understand why summer is a slow time for game releases anyway. Do they think kids play more games during the school year than on break? Isn't that the exact opposite of the reason why the release the big summer blockbuster movies?

Why don't they release the big summer blockbuster AAA games?

I don't get it either.

I imagine they assume most people are out enjoying the nicer weather, or going to the movies , so it's best to hold off on most titles. Besides, the vast majority of sales take place during the holiday season, so of course everyone wants their piece of that pie.

[Laa-Yosh]

There are a lot of AAA titles in development for the current generation consoles: Assassin's Creed 3, Watchdogs, Beyond, Last of Us, Halo 4, COD BO2, a new Gears game, and so on. A few hundred million dollars' worth of investment in software development altogether, started 2-3 years ago - so there'd be a lot of angry people if the nextgen consoles would be announced now and arriving on the market this year.

[babybumb]

Originally Posted by eastmen

I think the wii u will sell well just because people are tired of this gen.

Unless Wii U is a casual success this is not very likely because publishers are sticking to old consoles for the final big releases that have been in development for years.

This is like the worst possible year for Nintendo to launch this system and expect core gamer adoption when they dont have the content of cheaper systems next year.

Xbox 360 was not missing any of the big multiplatform games when it launched. Quite the opposite. It had ton of stuff from PC that PS2 didnt even run

If you were a publishers which of these systems would you greentlight a hardcore game now.

Wii U
PC
PS3
360
PS4
720

I can see Sony/MS having two systems with better 3rd party support than Wii U in 2014 because of the installed base factor of 360/PS3 for many PC/360/PS3/720/PS4 titles to make money. And without the games next year to build coregamer base Wii U just dosent make much sense

[Rangers]

Originally Posted by Tap In

good point... maybe fall/winter releases will reinvigorate this gen

7 years in? This makes sense why?

Sure the bigger releases will help a bit, but I'm of the opinion the only thing that's really going to zap the heart of this dying gen a bit is hardware price cuts.

Lots of bundles.

Xtra Slim PS3 has already leaked with 16GB model at $179 from good sources. That should be a pretty big deal. Microsoft will probably be forced to responds.


The rumor is Sony has stock of unsold PS3's is the only reason it wasnt debuted at Gamescom, but I'll assume it's coming this year.

[Prophecy2k]

Originally Posted by Billy Idol

I really wonder if there is a statistic from 1980 where they found out that no one buys games in summer...and publisher still think it is valid.

This is true i believe. I know a number of summer games managed to clean up in that season, namely game like RDR sold very very well as the summer blockbuster AAA game.

With so many games gunning for the fall, and many spilling over into the new year, every year for the past 3-4, I think its about time publishers started spreading out their releases more evenly.

[eastmen]

Originally Posted by babybumb

Unless Wii U is a casual success this is not very likely because publishers are sticking to old consoles for the final big releases that have been in development for years.

This is like the worst possible year for Nintendo to launch this system and expect core gamer adoption when they dont have the content of cheaper systems next year.

Xbox 360 was not missing any of the big multiplatform games when it launched. Quite the opposite. It had ton of stuff from PC that PS2 didnt even run

If you were a publishers which of these systems would you greentlight a hardcore game now.

Wii U
PC
PS3
360
PS4
720

I can see Sony/MS having two systems with better 3rd party support than Wii U in 2014 because of the installed base factor of 360/PS3 for many PC/360/PS3/720/PS4 titles to make money. And without the games next year to build coregamer base Wii U just dosent make much sense

the third party big games will hae pc verisons anyway and so enhancing them for a more powerful system should be easy and quick.

[Silent_Buddha]

Originally Posted by RancidLunchmeat

I actually don't understand why summer is a slow time for game releases anyway. Do they think kids play more games during the school year than on break? Isn't that the exact opposite of the reason why the release the big summer blockbuster movies?

Why don't they release the big summer blockbuster AAA games?

I don't get it either.

Spring and Summer are generally the worst due to a few factors. Spring still has the buyer weariness from the Holiday seasons. Summer, traditionally, is when most people go on vacation. Summer also has additional expenses related to "back to school." Whether that is saving money for school if you are in college, or just saving money to pay for your kids clothes and school supplies.

Past performance also shows that sales generally underperform when not sold during the "gift giving" season. There are exceptions to that obviously (anything made by Blizzard), but they are rather rare.

As to why the Holidays generate more sales? Well, that's when people are more likely to give gifts. Those that don't give gifts will often give money.

You aren't tapped out due to spending all that money during the holiday months as well as perhaps putting some money away for summertime vacations (Spring).
You aren't tapped out due to taking your summer vacation and/or saving for the upcoming school year. (Summer)
You aren't saving up money for the holiday season and potential winter vacations (Autumn).

Anyone that's spent any amount of time in retail dealing with games and electronics can easily tell you when foot traffic in those types of stores will start to ramp up.

It's not just an empty belief, it just happens to be when the most money flows into games and electroics in the Western world. It's no surprise that the holiday season can make or break a company's entire yearly profits. Do badly in the holiday quarter and your company's revenue and profits tank. Do well in the holiday quarter and you can easily erase 9 months of losing money and have an overall profit for the year.

For China, I wouldn't be surprised if the greatest retail spending for those types of things happened around Chinese New Year rather than the West's holiday months. And other non-western countries may have different times of greatest retail spending.

Regards,
SB

[rekator]

The advise of gift period is valid only for kids and youngs related, not for 30+years old, in this case gift period are probably the time were you have less money for gaming, due to gifts to others.

But now we don't have the Hoyday's rush like before, far less AAA games, but the February/Mars rush and for now is really terrible… Is it a gift period? No… Editors seem to function like the more important thing is "don't let one other alone on the market"… so they're fighting for the same money so less sales for everybody. They're skip Behemoth like Halo or COD (but this year we have a fight for this two) or AC…

[AlphaWolf]

Originally Posted by rekator

The advise of gift period is valid only for kids and youngs related, not for 30+years old, in this case gift period are probably the time were you have less money for gaming, due to gifts to others.

But now we don't have the Hoyday's rush like before, far less AAA games, but the February/Mars rush and for now is really terrible… Is it a gift period? No… Editors seem to function like the more important thing is "don't let one other alone on the market"… so they're fighting for the same money so less sales for everybody. They're skip Behemoth like Halo or COD (but this year we have a fight for this two) or AC…

Uh no, it's not just valid for kids. Christmas bonus.

[Rangers]

Originally Posted by Prophecy2k

This is true i believe. I know a number of summer games managed to clean up in that season, namely game like RDR sold very very well as the summer blockbuster AAA game.

With so many games gunning for the fall, and many spilling over into the new year, every year for the past 3-4, I think its about time publishers started spreading out their releases more evenly.

There arent many months without big releases anymore. Spring has been pretty huge several years now and of course fall/winter.

About the only month totally unscathed is July, and I've always said a publisher should release a huge well backed game that month...

December is usually thin as well, though it seems some big Nintendo titles end up there.