[Shifty Geezer]

Okay, it's not going to happen but still - How's about adding virtual betting chips to the forum so that those who say, "I'd bet you real money that xxxx is never going to happen by yyyy," can actually bet forum kudos, and we could back up all the posturing with some real and clearly visible tracking over who's the most right person on the board? Give everyone a starting account of 50 chips, and whoever ends up with thousands and thousands gets a job at some technical investment firm for knowing their onions.

[pcchen]

I think maybe even virtual chips are not necessary. Just a personal "betting history" available to all is good enough Of course, once a bet is made it can't be modified in any way.

[hoho]

Biggest problem probably comes when some official guy thinks that forum owners should follow same rules as any random gambling firm has to.

[I.S.T.]

This is a terrible idea that would likely end up as another version of the reputation system. We all know how that ended...

[Shifty Geezer]

But it's not open to manipulation like reputation. A bet is made between two people. No-one else is involved, and there's no means to gang up and mess with people's bets. It's just be a little fun for those who are currently all mouth and no trousers.

[hoho]

Real money based systems are out of question due to legal reason. Though I guess some additional rank like "Won X bets, lost Y" could work. Though actually adding this feature to the forums won't be easy and neither will be filtering spam bets from anything interesting.

[Dominik D]

I've been thinking about this kind of system for some time but more as a web platform for, well, ridiculing people. You set the bet up: game X is going to sell better than Y by date Z; the average score for Q will be W after V reviews; GPU M is not going to outperform N in O tests. And people can challenge that "prediction". I have never figured out one thing though: how can you gauge the redistribution of kudos. It's simple for easily quantifiable stuff like sales figures but for some bets it's much harder to tell who was correct.

[pcchen]

Originally Posted by Dominik D

I've been thinking about this kind of system for some time but more as a web platform for, well, ridiculing people. You set the bet up: game X is going to sell better than Y by date Z; the average score for Q will be W after V reviews; GPU M is not going to outperform N in O tests. And people can challenge that "prediction". I have never figured out one thing though: how can you gauge the redistribution of kudos. It's simple for easily quantifiable stuff like sales figures but for some bets it's much harder to tell who was correct.

There are some "predication exchange" websites doing this. Basically, one made a prediction, and sell "future contracts" on the prediction to those who believe the prediction is wrong. The future contracts can be traded before it 'matured.' This can be somehow used as an indication on whether the 'market' believes the prediction or not, and by how much.

The predictions, of course, must be very precise, and easily verified. For example, 'the next non-handheld console released by Microsoft will be called Xbox 720' is precise and easy to verify. 'Intel's mobile phone platform is going to take 20% market share next year' is somewhat precise (but with some wiggle room such as which market share, world or the US?), but not easy to verify because market share numbers can be hard to obtain. 'Pepsi is going to kick Coca-cola's ass' is not precise nor easily verifiable.

[willardjuice]

Can I bet it all on nv30?

[I.S.T.]

Originally Posted by willardjuice

Can I bet it all on nv30?

Or R600?