View Full Version : Elite includes the 3 rings of death too...
HDMI, 120 GB, and this... again.
http://www.fotozone.es/ficheros/2007/17/fotozone_14056.jpg
infinity4
29-Apr-2007, 20:38
*sighs* it feels like they will never fix it.
microsoft blocked gateway to jump in :twisted:
HDMI, 120 GB, and this... again.
http://www.fotozone.es/ficheros/2007/17/fotozone_14056.jpg
Well there will always be faulty models of [insert name of any electronic product]. But the real question is what is the fault rate?
yea, like we needed a photo to confirm that would happen. :lol:
Fu3lFr3nzy
29-Apr-2007, 21:45
There will continually be dead X360 consoles until MS decides to take out the X-Clamps, among other things.
Even 65nm wont save the console now :lol:
Well there will always be faulty models of [insert name of any electronic product]. But the real question is what is the fault rate?
Nope , real question is what is the REAL fault rate ? ... You really believe that % 3-5 rate bs ?.. :roll:
Rainbow Man
30-Apr-2007, 01:09
There will continually be dead X360 consoles until MS decides to take out the X-Clamps, among other things.
I think blaming it on the clamps is wrong.
PS3 has the same type of clamps on its major chips. Heard any horror stories caused by clamps there? No..
It's probably likely that the "ring of death" (which isn't actually a ring but whatever) has several different causes rather than just one common.
Besides.. No wonder that elite threw up three red lights! jUst look at the sun trying to push in through those blinds. It's a lovely day outside and the guy turns on his xbox!
Go outside for god's sake! :cool:
Peace.
Hardknock
30-Apr-2007, 01:35
Nope , real question is what is the REAL fault rate ? ... You really believe that % 3-5 rate bs ?.. :roll:
3 to 5% would be 300k to 500k of 10 million systems... Sounds believable to me.
3 to 5% would be 300k to 500k of 10 million systems... Sounds believable to me.
Also, Microsoft has admitted that the early units had a higher than normal fail rate, which is why they extended their warranty. Hopefully they have gotten the fail rate under control.
Fu3lFr3nzy
30-Apr-2007, 04:49
~
Hence my mentioning of
among other things
:wink:
Jesus2006
30-Apr-2007, 06:30
3 to 5% would be 300k to 500k of 10 million systems... Sounds believable to me.
I think that's way too low as you can see by several polls in various forums (made myself one here (http://www.forum-3dcenter.org/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=304215) where you can easily add one more "0" to that figure.
Personally i know nobody (including myself) who did not yet exchange his Xbox 360 for a new one because of these problems (Drive, RRoD).
NovemberMike
30-Apr-2007, 06:39
I think that's way too low as you can see by several polls in various forums (made myself one here (http://www.forum-3dcenter.org/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=304215) where you can easily add one more "0" to that figure.
Personally i know nobody (including myself) who did not yet exchange his Xbox 360 for a new one because of these problems (Drive, RRoD).
I am sorry, but straw polls and testimonials are probably the two most unscientific and unreliable ways of gaining data. I personally know nobody that has had a broken 360 (and mine has been working for a year). Does that mean that none of them break?
poopypoo
30-Apr-2007, 07:18
I think that's way too low as you can see by several polls in various forums (made myself one here (http://www.forum-3dcenter.org/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=304215) where you can easily add one more "0" to that figure.
Personally i know nobody (including myself) who did not yet exchange his Xbox 360 for a new one because of these problems (Drive, RRoD).
I am sorry, but straw polls and testimonials are probably the two most unscientific and unreliable ways of gaining data. I personally know nobody that has had a broken 360 (and mine has been working for a year). Does that mean that none of them break?
...so lucky of you two to meet here! :D
Dr Evil
30-Apr-2007, 08:08
I believe the failure rate could be as high as 20% and even higher for the early units. Mine is still working without problems though (launch day unit)
Shifty Geezer
30-Apr-2007, 08:17
I am sorry, but straw polls and testimonials are probably the two most unscientific and unreliable ways of gaining data.Though generally true, if your sample base is the same, the relative results should be indicative. If we ask on this forum who's had a dead XB360 after 6 months, and then ask who's had a dead PS3 in that time, and we make sure there's enough owners of said console to be statistically relevant, we can get a comparative breakdown rate. It won't tell us what percentage of XB360s are dying, but it will show if more die than other consoles (can also reference last-gen too)
NovemberMike
30-Apr-2007, 08:18
...so lucky of you two to meet here! :D
Sorry, I just hate it when people try to be armchair statisticians. It reminds me of the idiots who created a Simpson's paradox at Stanford when they said women were less likely to be accepted (they were more likely in reality, they just applied to harder schools). Unless you have a good random study, the results are completely worthless for any kind of argument.
Though generally true, if your sample base is the same, the relative results should be indicative. If we ask on this forum who's had a dead XB360 after 6 months, and then ask who's had a dead PS3 in that time, and we make sure there's enough owners of said console to be statistically relevant, we can get a comparative breakdown rate. It won't tell us what percentage of XB360s are dying, but it will show if more die than other consoles (can also reference last-gen too)
So can you tell me the ratio of 360 to PS3 owners on this site (or any other site for that matter) that will answer the question? And how many people own 360s and go on the internet as opposed to the PS3?
Nope , real question is what is the REAL fault rate ? ... You really believe that % 3-5 rate bs ?.. :roll:
I don't know what the rate is (don't care) but i'm on my 4th (!) model. And my "new" model (2006-03-24) is giving me random "disc is unreadable" errors.
I know that in the Netherlands a consumer television program "kassa" has received about 10.000 complaints.
It's a shame really because when the unit is working, its a very good machine !
archangelmorph
30-Apr-2007, 12:34
I don't know what the rate is (don't care) but i'm on my 4th (!) model. And my "new" model (2006-03-24) is giving me random "disc is unreadable" errors.
I know that in the Netherlands a consumer television program "kassa" has received about 10.000 complaints.
It's a shame really because when the unit is working, its a very good machine !
I just got mine on friday.. fingers crossed it's been ok so far...
inefficient
30-Apr-2007, 13:51
I think blaming it on the clamps is wrong.
PS3 has the same type of clamps on its major chips. Heard any horror stories caused by clamps there? No..
PS3 clamps are actually quite different.
From what I've seen, on the 360 the heat sinks are literally "hanging on" to the motherboard. It creates a tension on the actual PCB. You also have to be concerned that the weight of the heatsinks will create even more tension when the system is in the vertical position.
On the PS3, the giant heat sink is actually fills the entire base of the system. The motherboard sits on top of it. All the main chips are facing downward (When the PS3 is horizontal). This is something that people with a PC background will find unexpected. The 360 heat sink set up is much more like a traditional PC setup.
There are just 2 pretty low tension clamps underneath the motherboard. And they don't touch the PCB itself. there is a large metal spreader between the PCB and the cooling solution. These 2 little clips apply just a little bit of force where the heatsink touches the face of the Cell and RSX packaging. Only 4 screws. Because this is not what is holding the heatsink to the mobo.
The whole thing is like a sandwich. The cooling system is at the bottom, then a metal spreader, a mobo in the middle, another metal spreader, then the power supply BD drive and etc go on top. Then there are many screws that hold the whole thing together inside the plastic housing of the PS3.
http://img264.imageshack.us/img264/9046/chipsyc8.jpg
http://img156.imageshack.us/img156/8928/heatsinkco2.jpg
http://img254.imageshack.us/img254/4199/clampsvr7.jpg
xbox360 setup for comparison
http://www.benheck.com/Games/Xbox360/x306_1.jpg
http://content.techrepublic.com.com/2347-10877_11-5652-5691.html?seq=39
sony engineers thought big for ps3. Very beautiful engineering inside the box
Nope , real question is what is the REAL fault rate ? ... You really believe that % 3-5 rate bs ?.. :roll:
Lol, I am talking about the xbox360 Elite version fault rate (is there any report yet?)!
crystalcube
30-Apr-2007, 16:53
Elite includes the 3 rings of death too... its actually a feature, Elite is "Bug Compatible" with previous version ;)
Great info and pics inefficient, thanks.
Ragnarok
30-Apr-2007, 19:37
http://img9.imagepile.net/img9/17588vandammebsod.gif
HDMI, 120 GB, and this... again.
http://www.fotozone.es/ficheros/2007/17/fotozone_14056.jpg
Someone want to explain what the "3 rings of death" are?
Someone want to explain what the "3 rings of death" are?
It's more like the xbox360 power light blinking red 3 times to signal that there is a problem with the console.
http://img9.imagepile.net/img9/17588vandammebsod.gif <---Gif
Lol that was the old time (Win95)! :lol:
Bigus Dickus
30-Apr-2007, 20:19
I think that's way too low as you can see by several polls in various forums (made myself one here (http://www.forum-3dcenter.org/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=304215) where you can easily add one more "0" to that figure.
Right, and there is no sample bias error in such a poll?
People who don't know a thing about stastics but trying to use them are only slightly less dangerous than people who do.
Onlooker1
30-Apr-2007, 21:20
Right, and there is no sample bias error in such a poll?
People who don't know a thing about stastics but trying to use them are only slightly less dangerous than people who do.
It is nothing to do with statistics, obviously without access to the customer database and a random phone poll nobody but microsoft knows the statistical failure rate. BUT, everyone can see the *extraordinary* number of reports of *sequential* failures of the xbox 360 reported on *every single xbox forum* by *multiple* users and only a fool or someone with blinkers on would refuse to acknowledge that this console clearly has a big reliability problem (compared to the Wii and the PS3 and DS and PSP and even a bog standard dell PC). And the reliability issue is being contained only be generous and expensive return policies and warranty extensions offered by microsoft which doesn't seem to mind losing 100s of millions per year for as long as it takes, in order to gain market share.
It is nothing to do with statistics, obviously without access to the customer database and a random phone poll nobody but microsoft knows the statistical failure rate. BUT, everyone can see the *extraordinary* number of reports of *sequential* failures of the xbox 360 reported on *every single xbox forum* by *multiple* users and only a fool or someone with blinkers on would refuse to acknowledge that this console clearly has a big reliability problem (compared to the Wii and the PS3 and DS and PSP and even a bog standard dell PC). And the reliability issue is being contained only be generous and expensive return policies and warranty extensions offered by microsoft which doesn't seem to mind losing 100s of millions per year for as long as it takes, in order to gain market share.
If you pop your head into the official Xbox forums which are overun by loyalist who rarely say anything ill about MS or the 360 will still report about their 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc. 360 to die. If these people complain in droves, I think there is a problem.
We also know that MS extended their warranty to 1 year (from 90 days) and lost over $100 million extra in replacement cost one quarter. I'd say they are getting more than the expected 360 deaths.
I'm still on my first 360, but I have had a few "Disc not readable" errors and will replace it under the BB service plan before it runs out.
infinity4
30-Apr-2007, 23:40
did you guys know that its power brick that actually causes the problem not the console...
i can't be bothered to read if someone might have posted above, but... nothing wrong with posting again.
Sound_Card
30-Apr-2007, 23:58
What's wrong is basing info from forum polls and threads. With that said, I don't think anyone here in the right mind would argue and say that the 360 is a flawless build. Things however can be blown out of proportions on forums considering that it's one of the first places to go when someone is having trouble.
Obviously, MS know's thier is a failure rate issue(3%-5% is still alot as someone already pointed out) and hence why they have extended the warrenty to two years.
"Nerve-Damage"
01-May-2007, 00:45
sony engineers thought big for ps3. Very beautiful engineering inside the box
:yep2:
What's wrong is basing info from forum polls and threads. With that said, I don't think anyone here in the right mind would argue and say that the 360 is a flawless build. Things however can be blown out of proportions on forums considering that it's one of the first places to go when someone is having trouble.
:yep2:
There are stores saying that they have had a 100% return rate, UPS delivery guys telling me they have to deliver at least 1 xbox a day.
What's wrong is basing info from forum polls and threads. With that said, I don't think anyone here in the right mind would argue and say that the 360 is a flawless build. Things however can be blown out of proportions on forums considering that it's one of the first places to go when someone is having trouble.
Obviously, MS know's thier is a failure rate issue(3%-5% is still alot as someone already pointed out) and hence why they have extended the warrenty to two years.
Considering the high numbers of failures i think Microsoft has gotten of easily. And as others pointes out, no we don´t have hard numbers on anything. But considering the number of people who have had not one or two or three 360´s fail on them but 4 5 6 and 7! i think the statistic nerds can tell us that with a failure rate of 3% the chance of someone having 5 failures is low and the chance of several people having 5 faillures is even lower?
Dr Evil
01-May-2007, 07:23
did you guys know that its power brick that actually causes the problem not the console...
i can't be bothered to read if someone might have posted above, but... nothing wrong with posting again.
No I don't think we knew that, probably because it quite likely isn't true...
What's wrong is basing info from forum polls and threads. With that said, I don't think anyone here in the right mind would argue and say that the 360 is a flawless build. Things however can be blown out of proportions on forums considering that it's one of the first places to go when someone is having trouble.
Obviously, MS know's thier is a failure rate issue(3%-5% is still alot as someone already pointed out) and hence why they have extended the warrenty to two years.
http://www.konsolifin.net/bbs/showthread.php?t=34661
I have posted this survey from a finnish gaming site before. (All the necessary info is on the first post of that thread) Right now it shows 145 boxes broken out of 397 which translates to 37% and while it's definately not a scientific research, the sample size is imo big enough that this 3-5% talk can be thrown into a trash can. I think even Microsoft has admitted that the real number is bigger than 3-5% which they originally stated it to be.
Diamond.G
01-May-2007, 15:04
What do you guys think of this gem (http://jayfng.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!A5557A058F6EA78B!1475.entry)?
No I don't think we knew that, probably because it quite likely isn't true...
http://www.konsolifin.net/bbs/showthread.php?t=34661
I have posted this survey from a finnish gaming site before. (All the necessary info is on the first post of that thread) Right now it shows 145 boxes broken out of 397 which translates to 37% and while it's definately not a scientific research, the sample size is imo big enough that this 3-5% talk can be thrown into a trash can. I think even Microsoft has admitted that the real number is bigger than 3-5% which they originally stated it to be.
If you think you can rely on an informal internet survey from internet gaming sites for any type of reliable evidence, you are highly mistaken.
Do you think that such polls even attempt to eliminate variables that can affect the validility of their results? They don't.
What the likelihood that the forum polls account for things like motivation, honesty and the difference between people who responded to the poll and the people who didn't respond? None.
Give me a hundred dollars for my time and create a poll for broken xbox 360 and lets see if I can raise the 360s' failure rate for b3d users above 100%.
Shifty Geezer
01-May-2007, 16:47
If you think you rely on an informal internet survey from internet gaming sites you are highly mistaken.
Do you think that such polls even attempt to eliminate variables that can affect the validility of their results? What the likelihood that the forum polls account for things like motivation, honesty and the difference between people who responded to the poll and the people who didn't respond?Again, in and of themselves internet polls are no use. But as a comparative measure, they are fine. The same rules apply to posts about busted XB360's as busted Wii's. busted PSPs, busted PS2s, etc. It's the same demographic posting/voting, with the same average trends in use. There's no reason to think posts or votes or anecdotes of XB360 being dodgy will be less reliable as the same info on PS3 and Wii. If on a board of 1000 users, 30 say their XB360 has died 4x, 3 say their PS3 has died, and none say their Wii has died, taking in account relative sales of consoles and uptake on the board, you'd see a reliable, though not numerically accurate, indicator that XB360 has a higher failure rate.
Just looking at this board, we have numberous posters commenting on busted XB360's including multiple boxes, and we've had how many problems reported with PS3 and Wii? Unless you think all the PS3 and Wii owners hold their tongue, or the remarks on XB360 are made up, this board shows there's a larger reliability issue with XB360.
Dr Evil
01-May-2007, 16:51
If you think you can rely on an informal internet survey from internet gaming sites for any type of reliable evidence, you are highly mistaken.
I think you are highly mistaken if after everything we have seen you believe that 3-5%, all I'm saying is that the real number is bigger than that. The fact is that the information behind that link wasn't a poll in its strictest sense. It requires a registration and a post. It's fairly easy to check the post histories of the participants and see who are "real" X360 owners with problems and who are suspects I have browsed through that thread and peoples post histories and I can vouch for it's authenticity. Most of the guys posting there are not frauds.
Of course there are many variable that still needs to be taken into account, but that number points to a direction and that direction says that lot's of boxes have broken and that they are still breaking, I questimated a number of 20% and yeah it's just quess, but I'm holding onto it.
I think you are highly mistaken if after everything we have seen you believe that 3-5%, all I'm saying is that the real number is bigger than that. The fact is that the information behind that link wasn't a poll in its strictest sense. It requires a registration and a post. It's fairly easy to check the post histories of the participants and see who are "real" X360 owners with problems and who are suspects I have browsed through that thread and peoples post histories and I can vouch for it's authenticity. Most of the guys posting there are not frauds.
Of course there are many variable that still needs to be taken into account, but that number points to a direction and that direction says that lot's of boxes have broken and that they are still breaking, I questimated a number of 20% and yeah it's just quess, but I'm holding onto it.
Again, in and of themselves internet polls are no use. But as a comparative measure, they are fine. The same rules apply to posts about busted XB360's as busted Wii's. busted PSPs, busted PS2s, etc. It's the same demographic posting/voting, with the same average trends in use. There's no reason to think posts or votes or anecdotes of XB360 being dodgy will be less reliable as the same info on PS3 and Wii. If on a board of 1000 users, 30 say their XB360 has died 4x, 3 say their PS3 has died, and none say their Wii has died, taking in account relative sales of consoles and uptake on the board, you'd see a reliable, though not numerically accurate, indicator that XB360 has a higher failure rate.
Just looking at this board, we have numberous posters commenting on busted XB360's including multiple boxes, and we've had how many problems reported with PS3 and Wii? Unless you think all the PS3 and Wii owners hold their tongue, or the remarks on XB360 are made up, this board shows there's a larger reliability issue with XB360.
I don't hold any beliefs extrapolated from polls for the failure rates of the 360 or any console for that matter. In the days of viral marketing and a hobby that breeds fierce competition and irrational behavior due to brand loyalty, it hard to believe any forum polls which aren't carefully managed. It would take only a small group of people to go to boards and manipulate polls that greatly influence and ruin any validity of a poll. Failure rates are the prime targets as they are a measurement of quality which are important to consumers.
Do I think failure rates are abnormally high? Yes, but I derive that simply from the comments of users I familiar with here on B3D, who have a history here. Their comments are easily way more reliable than any internet poll.
Bigus Dickus
01-May-2007, 17:32
It is nothing to do with statisticsWell, people sure as hell are trying to use bogus numbers to show "statistically" that the failure rate is sky high.
BUT, everyone can see the *extraordinary* number of reports of *sequential* failures of the xbox 360 reported on *every single xbox forum* by *multiple* users and only a fool or someone with blinkers on would refuse to acknowledge that this console clearly has a big reliability problem (compared to the Wii and the PS3 and DS and PSP and even a bog standard dell PC).First, it's blinders not blinkers, but that was pretty funny! Second, I and most other people aren't making the arguement that there is no reliability problem with the 360 (especially early ones, and seemingly lingering in reduced form), just that it isn't the 30% or whatever some people are claiming. 5% is half a million failures, which is huge, which is orders of magnitude more failures than people have reported on forums and polls, and given some likely mechanisms of the return/repair/replacement process along with the tendency for people to use/abuse any replacement in the exact same way as the previous model is entirely sufficient to explain the sequential failures.
I'm not saying the sky isn't a bit dark, just that it isn't falling.
Bigus Dickus
01-May-2007, 17:33
There are stores saying that they have had a 100% return rate, UPS delivery guys telling me they have to deliver at least 1 xbox a day.
My brother's ex girlfriend said her preist had a fourteen replacement Wii's fail in a row.
Bigus Dickus
01-May-2007, 17:35
I have posted this survey from a finnish gaming site before. (All the necessary info is on the first post of that thread) Right now it shows 145 boxes broken out of 397 which translates to 37% and while it's definately not a scientific research, the sample size is imo big enough that this 3-5% talk can be thrown into a trash can. I think even Microsoft has admitted that the real number is bigger than 3-5% which they originally stated it to be.That sample size is tiny, and the sample has a hugenormous bias! I tell you what... I'm going to go to the Mercedes service center down the street and poll customers there on how many failures they have had per Mercedes. You think the >100% rate I get in response is going to be anything but a worthless number?
I can't believe some people can't see the obvious.
Bigus Dickus
01-May-2007, 17:37
I questimated a number of 20% and yeah it's just quess, but I'm holding onto it.lol, well, I think all PS3's can fly if you get them hot enough. That's just my guess, but I'm holding on to it.
I think you are highly mistaken if after everything we have seen you believe that 3-5%, all I'm saying is that the real number is bigger than that.
Maybe they only count people once, even if they've had seventeen different units.
I know I had 3 360's, one premium, 2 cores and the people I sold them too have all told me that they've since had the three lights of death. The premium held on for over a year though before breaking (MS did tell the guy they'd fix it despite it being out of warranty though)
That sample size is tiny, and the sample has a hugenormous bias! I tell you what... I'm going to go to the Mercedes service center down the street and poll customers there on how many failures they have had per Mercedes. You think the >100% rate I get in response is going to be anything but a worthless number?
I can't believe some people can't see the obvious.
Even that scenario is better than a forum poll, where you can't even determine if the respondents even own a 360.
First, it's blinders not blinkers, but that was pretty funny!
Errrm.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blinders
Bigus Dickus
01-May-2007, 17:42
Again, in and of themselves internet polls are no use. But as a comparative measure, they are fine. The same rules apply to posts about busted XB360's as busted Wii's. busted PSPs, busted PS2s, etc. It's the same demographic posting/voting, with the same average trends in use.
Not so quick Shifty. I get what you are saying, but everything isn't equal in those demographics. The phenomenon of inertia is very powerful, and can't be discounted. It is "well known" that 360's "fail all the time." It's plastered all over every forum. Any poll on that subject is likely to draw the attention of every person on that forum that has a failed 360, knows someone with a failed 360, thinks thiers is about to fail, wishes every 360 would fail, etc. This idea has gained enough momentum that you can't realistically isolate those confounding variables. With PS3 and Wii, people have very much the opposite perception (well deserved as it may be) that any failure is very isolated and not worth mentioning. People don't make threads about it, people don't post polls about it, and inertia will tempt those who do have failures to not bother "complaining" about it or reporting it in a poll.
How big is that effect? Who knows, could be minor or major, but you can't ignore that it may exist and declare that all internet polls are perfectly acceptable as relative measures. The fact is that the PS3 is not the 360, nor is the Wii, nor are their histories to this point, and different motivations and influences are going to be at play in the owners of each.
Bigus Dickus
01-May-2007, 17:43
Errrm.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blinders
Doh! lol. There's a first for everything, and that's certainly the first time I've heard that term used. :) I learned my one new fact for the day so I guess I can go back to sleep now.
Dr Evil
01-May-2007, 21:19
That sample size is tiny, and the sample has a hugenormous bias! I tell you what... I'm going to go to the Mercedes service center down the street and poll customers there on how many failures they have had per Mercedes. You think the >100% rate I get in response is going to be anything but a worthless number?
I can't believe some people can't see the obvious.
Even that scenario is better than a forum poll, where you can't even determine if the respondents even own a 360.
I dunno why you guys act like you know the data and post histories behind that poll/thread better than me, but it's ridiculous. That thread is on the Xbox section of that forum and it's very easy to search the post history of its participants. The Mercedes analogy is ridiculous, because the thread is not only to report failures but also non failures, currently it shows 37% failure rate, which I'm sure is too high, but it's not meaningless. Perhaps you can point a better source for the failure rate?
lol, well, I think all PS3's can fly if you get them hot enough. That's just my guess, but I'm holding on to it.
That sounds really interesting, perhaps we can discuss more about it after you have graduated from kindergarten?
Diamond.G
01-May-2007, 23:02
So does everyone here honestly feel less than 50% but more than 25% of existing consoles are either going to die or have died? I mean for 10 million consoles we are looking at somewhere between 2.5 to 5 million consoles. Doesn't that stand out to anyone as a bit excessive? It would seem 5% to 10% is more accurate cause that gives us something like 500k to 1 million bad systems. Which is still freaking too high to be boasting but seems to be far more realistic than the other numbers.
I also think a large part of the problem is sending out "fixed" units. The dying refurbs are not helping the statistic one bit.
I dunno why you guys act like you know the data and post histories behind that poll/thread better than me, but it's ridiculous. That thread is on the Xbox section of that forum and it's very easy to search the post history of its participants. The Mercedes analogy is ridiculous, because the thread is not only to report failures but also non failures, currently it shows 37% failure rate, which I'm sure is too high, but it's not meaningless. Perhaps you can point a better source for the failure rate?
I don't know the post history at all and its rather difficult to establish how relevant it is because I don't know of any good Finnish to English translators. Lack of good sources doesn't mean one should resort to unreliable ones. Im not attacking that particular website, I am attacking the thought of informal web polls as being somewhat reliable.
Would you believe such a poll if the console gaming or tech sites that you contributed too had virtually had no members (that you regularly interacted with) that complained about the 3 rings of death?
SugarCoat
02-May-2007, 01:28
I dunno why you guys act like you know the data and post histories behind that poll/thread better than me, but it's ridiculous. That thread is on the Xbox section of that forum and it's very easy to search the post history of its participants. The Mercedes analogy is ridiculous, because the thread is not only to report failures but also non failures, currently it shows 37% failure rate, which I'm sure is too high, but it's not meaningless. Perhaps you can point a better source for the failure rate?
You honestly think people who arent having issues will hop off their xbox to report in on the poll? If you go to the support/community pages of anything popular, be it hardware product or game of any type, the negative comments will pretty much ALWAYS out weigh the positive. If people are content, they wont give a damn. If something breaks they'll run to the closest forum and say how much something sucks. It is NOT rocket science how a poll like that can show an abnormally high failure rate.
Understand that you are assuming and expecting the crowd with no issues and gaming happily, the average joe gamers, are reporting in when they have no problems.
Dr Evil
02-May-2007, 08:14
Im not attacking that particular website, I am attacking the thought of informal web polls as being somewhat reliable.
Would you believe such a poll if the console gaming or tech sites that you contributed too had virtually had no members (that you regularly interacted with) that complained about the 3 rings of death?
You honestly think people who arent having issues will hop off their xbox to report in on the poll? If you go to the support/community pages of anything popular, be it hardware product or game of any type, the negative comments will pretty much ALWAYS outway the positive. If people are content, they wont give a damn. If something breaks they'll run to the closest forum and say how much something sucks. It is NOT rocket science how a poll like that can show an abnormally high failure rate.
Understand that you are assuming and expecting the crowd with no issues and gaming happily, the average joe gamers, are reporting in when they have no problems.
These posts would make more sense if I had actually said that the 37% number is accurate which I haven't. I have only said that based on that thread and other information I have seen, it is reasonable to assume that the true failure rate is more than the 5% which at one stage was announced by Microsoft. I made a personal assumption of 20% which I admitted is only speculation on my part. I would suggest that nobody loses their sleep because of that.
Again that Finnish "poll" shows 37% failure rate at the moment and it's on the Xbox side of the discussion, requiring a post from the participants to take part in it. The discussion board is fairly small, thus the thread is clearly visible to all participants and I'm fairly confident that most people who has the console have answered to it, as I believe both sides have an incentitive to answer it. Based on these numbers and my search into peoples post histories and taking into account different variables like the fact that people make more noise about negatives than positives etc. I made a questimate of 20% whether that's close to being the truth or complete BS is very hard to proove either way.
I just hope people realise that coming down from 37% to 20% shows that I have tried to take these variables into account, thus I'm not saying that the poll is accurate I'm just drawing conclusions of it, which are imo based on reasonable assumptions.
These posts would make more sense if I had actually said that the 37% number is accurate which I haven't. I have only said that based on that thread and other information I have seen, it is reasonable to assume that the true failure rate is more than the 5% which at one stage was announced by Microsoft. I made a personal assumption of 20% which I admitted is only speculation on my part. I would suggest that nobody loses their sleep because of that.
That fact that you don't even fully support the outcome of the poll shows that it should have little merit. There is nothing scientific about taking unreliable poll data and then tweaking it fit your own speculation or perception. It makes no sense to says "Well, I have poll data that shows a outcome that I don't fully support but I using my own logic came up with a number that trumphs the data shown by someone else".
Again that Finnish "poll" shows 37% failure rate at the moment and it's on the Xbox side of the discussion, requiring a post from the participants to take part in it. The discussion board is fairly small, thus the thread is clearly visible to all participants and I'm fairly confident that most people who has the console have answered to it, as I believe both sides have an incentitive to answer it. Based on these numbers and my search into peoples post histories and taking into account different variables like the fact that people make more noise about negatives than positives etc. I made a questimate of 20% whether that's close to being the truth or complete BS is very hard to proove either way.
I just hope people realise that coming down from 37% to 20% shows that I have tried to take these variables into account, thus I'm not saying that the poll is accurate I'm just drawing conclusions of it, which are imo based on reasonable assumptions.
The fact that it requires more participation than a checkmark helps bolster the fact that motivation plays a part in the poll. 20% means absolutely nothing because it was extrapolated strictly from your perception. Someone else can look at the same data and use their bias to extrapolate a different number. Ive seen someone at vgcharts argue using several gaming site polls and funny math that the actual # of 360s that MS had shipped out to retail was 5 million and the other half were actually replacements, which means a failure rate of ~100%. The actual failure rate of the 360 could be 37% but that poll in the form it was collected isn't a valid methodology, so it shouldn't be used as definitive proof or as supplemental evidence to bolster your own prescribed failure rate based on your own assumptions.
Its obvious that the 360 has a higher failure rate then a normal products and that can be derived from experience of our fellow B3Ders who are healthy contributors here at B3D. To put it in perspective, if a poll was generated at the same site by the same people to show a 37% failure rate for the PS3 or Wii, would you extrapolate an actual 20% blanket failure rate for those consoles?
Dr Evil
02-May-2007, 22:17
That fact that you don't even fully support the outcome of the poll shows that it should have little merit. There is nothing scientific about taking unreliable poll data and then tweaking it fit your own speculation or perception. It makes no sense to says "Well, I have poll data that shows a outcome that I don't fully support but I using my own logic came up with a number that trumphs the data shown by someone else".
What makes no sense is you trying to make a point out of that poll, a poll which you know nothing about...
Anyways this conversation is running in circles, I quess we both agree that there are more malfunctioning X360 units, than what is acceptable. That's good enough for me. I'm tired of arguing about semantics and things that aren't my main point...
What makes no sense is you trying to make a point out of that poll, a poll which you know nothing about...
Anyways this conversation is running in circles, I quess we both agree that there are more malfunctioning X360 units, than what is acceptable. That's good enough for me. I'm tired of arguing about semantics and things that aren't my main point...
I don't have to know much about a poll (however, I did in fact take a look at and tried to find a website translation tool for the finnish language) that you presented as evidence, the fact that you won't validate its outcome by adopting the belief that the 360's overall failure rate is 37% is telling enough.
Yes it is running in circle, so I guess we will agree to disagree and move on.
Cheezdoodles
05-May-2007, 19:26
Okay this is getting ridiculous. Some people here clearly know nothing about polling and nothing about statistics. I'm not even going to get into speculating the failure rate, im just going to explain to you why poll's on websites are largely useless for anything:
I'm going to start this of by a little example:
Have you ever seen a political debate show where people can call in and vote on stuff? Like say "Legalize abortion, yes or no". Now, some of these programs are very popular, getting hundreds of thousands of callers during a show. In this particular example, a program in Norway named Tabloid, asked the question if the government should stop allowing so many immigrants to settle in Norway. Shockingly 80% of the callers (50,000 total callers (total population in norway is 4.5 million) said that we had enough immigrants as it is.
Now on the day after this show was on, a analytical firm that does polls, had also done a poll on the same issue. They got a 30% number for the "no immigrants people", they only polled 3,000 people though. Guess which one is more scientifically accurate? You guessed correctly, the smaller, professional poll, because the people who watch "Tabloid" on a friday night and call in, aren't representative of the general public.
In order to have statistical data of ANY scientific value you need to make sure that the people who are responding in your poll are representative as an average of all the consumers who are using this product. Not only that, but these polls also need to have the "right" questions, you can easily manipulate the results of a poll, by just slightly changed the question or the answers.
We on the same page so far? Good.
Now, lets take at the polls your discussing. Are the people answering this poll representative of a the average gamers? No they are not. The most people who own this console are not spending their time on forums. Further, the average gamer will probably be using his console very differently than the average guy at a gaming forum. They will most likely spend less time playing, this alone leads to a lower score for the reliability than it should be. (Because obviously, since the average player plays less than the forum voter, they will most likely have consoles that are still alive).
Not only that, but the results can also largely be flawed, because of people lying, as we know in this generation fanboy wars on forums are taken to the next level. It happens everywhere, even here on beyond3d (tho to a lesser extent, but its still easy to spot biased posters [they usually have a little red dot below their name]), anyways, nobody is preventing these people to vote as well. And if you look at the amount of people who talk about how much better GT5 will be over Forza 2 at the Forza 2 forums on GameFAQs, there is little doubt that some people will post "negative" values to consoles they have never owned.
Further, are we sure the pollers are voting correctly? Most of these questionares are "Has your X360 broken down?" Now, just take a look at the B3D poll, you can already tell its flat out wrong. Why? Because most people are only voting once, they vote "Yes my x360 has died". They dont vote that their current X360 is alive and well. And 99,9% of everybody who has had a dead x360 has gotten a replacement (granted shifty did want people to vote for both), but if you cannot vote for both, how on earth are you going to get anything that is remotely accurate?
Surely, if you had a x360, and it dies, and you receive a replacement that works. Thats 50% reliability rate, NOT 100%.
Because of all these facts, using website polls to make any real life conclusions is well... to put it bluntly, its stupid.
Dr Evil
06-May-2007, 09:10
Because of all these facts, using website polls to make any real life conclusions is well... to put it bluntly, its stupid.
Only problem is that there were lot's of stuff in your post that aren't facts...
For example the one that forum posters play more, I think forum posters play less and discuss more. All in all your post added nothing that everybody doesn't already know. The immigration and professional poll example was way of the mark and has absolutely nothing to do what we are having here. Polls are problematic but instead of talking that general "polls aren't accurate" I wan't you to break down this poll on this board and proove that it's inaccurate and why. Unless you can't do that in a convincing manner I'm going to hold onto my line of thinking, in which the accurate number is not as important as the fact that they are breaking left and right.
Cheezdoodles
06-May-2007, 13:00
Only problem is that there were lot's of stuff in your post that aren't facts...
If you claim that something isn't a fact, you should point them all out, not just make a godly claim that they are.
I wan't you to break down this poll on this board and proove that it's inaccurate and why. Unless you can't do that in a convincing manner I'm going to hold onto my line of thinking.
And this is where you show that your not understanding my post, because primarily i wanted to just write up why using poll numbers to get statistical data is useless, not so much if the X360's die a lot or not because they are definitely dying at a higher rate than normal, but i can certainly prove to you that the poll on this board is inaccurate.
1. Sample size out of 10 000 000 consoles, you would need far more than 100 consoles, to have any number thats has a statistical value. A bare minimum of sample size required to get a result that can be said as 95% accurate would in this case (roughly calculated) be around 16.000 (assuming the consoles for the sample are the average of all consoles in terms of how old and how used they are)
2. Poll not accounting for multiple consoles\multiple replacements: Some people own more than 1 console, others own only one, but has had it replaced several time, others again has had 1 brake down and then received a proper working console, the number of working consoles thats missing from this is HUGE, because everybody that has had a console for repair, has a new refurbished working one. (assuming it didn't break down again, etc)
3. The Beyond 3D userbase is not an average representation of the console userbase as a whole. There is much more people who bought their consoles at launch\ near launch than in the average console population. Launch consoles are probably going to crap out on you more often than a console bought in december 2006.
I could keep going, but i think i've already made my point.
my line of thinking, in which the accurate number is not as important as the fact that they are breaking left and right.
Oh and your line of thinking is making up a 20% number based on some finish poll, which certainly isn't accurate as well. Analysing something, if the numbers are flawed to begin with, is a waste of time, no matter how much time and work you put into it, your numbers aren't going to be correct anyway.
The Elite seems like a good idea for the U.S. but outside of that it just seems like MS wants a SKU that gives the uninfomed consumer the impression they are getting a system with the same capabilities as the PS3 for less money. Ignoring to tell them of course that you can't play HD movies.
Mintmaster
07-May-2007, 12:56
The Elite seems like a good idea for the U.S. but outside of that it just seems like MS wants a SKU that gives the uninfomed consumer the impression they are getting a system with the same capabilities as the PS3 for less money. Ignoring to tell them of course that you can't play HD movies.
You mean can't play HD movies from a disc. You can still download and play them.
Why you think Microsoft should tell consumers about this shortcoming on a videogame console is beyond me.
The Elite model is just there to take away some marketing power from the PS3, like when they say HDMI is the future and only PS3 has it, or that the base PS3 is far superior to the best XB360 (okay, that's not important now that it's discontinued, but you get my point). It's there to show people you can spend $479 for features like the big HDD, 1080p HDMI, etc that Sony is hyping or you can spend $299 for nearly the same gaming experience.
I also think the Elite will eventually replace the Premium, or the Premium will be upgraded to specs similar to those of the Elite.
Elite includes the 3 rings of death too.. (http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?p=978696#post978696)
Well, it costs more than the Premium, what did you expect, that they would start removing features, I am surpized they haven't upgraded it to 4 rings instead:wink: :razz: ...
The Elite model is just there to take away some marketing power from the PS3, My theory is that the Elite is there to pull buyers from the core to the Premium, using a decoy effect (link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decoy_effect)).
Dr Evil
13-May-2007, 16:43
My theory is that the Elite is there to pull buyers from the core to the Premium, using a decoy effect (link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decoy_effect)).
But everybody was already buying Premiums.
But everybody was already buying Premiums.
We'll, we've heard numbers like 80/20. And I'm also thinking of when the core drops below $200.
My theory is that the Elite is there to pull buyers from the core to the Premium, using a decoy effect (link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decoy_effect)).
The system is clearly designed to hit certain bullet points at retail to compete with the high end impression the PS3 leaves as a stand alone machine,but at a lower price. It's a little deceptive, I'm sure intentionally so.
You mean can't play HD movies from a disc. You can still download and play them.
Only if you live in the US,hence my comment about the US.
Why you think Microsoft should tell consumers about this shortcoming on a videogame console is beyond me.
I never said they had tod,I just think they should. The impression that the inclusion of the bigger HDD and HDMI leaves is clear.Unfortunately outside the US the 360 as a stand alone machine doesn't live up to that impression.
The Elite model is just there to take away some marketing power from the PS3,
Exactly,it's all about bullet points.
like when they say HDMI is the future and only PS3 has it, or that the base PS3 is far superior to the best XB360 (okay, that's not important now that it's discontinued, but you get my point). It's there to show people you can spend $479 for features like the big HDD, 1080p HDMI, etc that Sony is hyping or you can spend $299 for nearly the same gaming experience.
The Elite isn't being sold as a gaming only experience though. It's a half measure and I'm not that impressed.
I also think the Elite will eventually replace the Premium, or the Premium will be upgraded to specs similar to those of the Elite.
Possibly.
Cheezdoodles
13-May-2007, 18:05
I never said they had tod,I just think they should.
You think Microsoft should tell the consumer about their products shortcomings?
What kind of logic is behind this? Why would anybody want to enlighten a possible buyer of their products shortcomings. Might as well just start paying for PS3 adds.
You think Microsoft should tell the consumer about their products shortcomings?
What kind of logic is behind this? Why would anybody want to enlighten a possible buyer of their products shortcomings. Might as well just start paying for PS3 adds.
In this particular case I think they should be more clear yes. In general no.
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